Would you trade Larry Johnson For M. Harrison/s. Jaxson and 1st round draft pick 2007

[solarfire 0]

Im in a keeper league and very interested in this trade please comment.

[devildog 0]

Wrong board. But I'd hang on to LJ on the surface.

[Bezzerck 0]

MOre info is needed such as your point system. Your current roster and your trade partners current roster. And how many keepers you get to keep each year and the number of teams in the league. However my first impression would be to take it and run. LJ could be the best RB in the league this year however he could also end up on the back side of ten as well. If you compare his stats to those of another top10 runningback, one of the best WR in the league and next years first round pick which could land you another top player I dont see what the question would be. Unless you are already completely stacked at WR this would be a nobrainer.

[Freak Jones 0]

Not a snowballs chance! If you are lucky enough to have LJ, you don't trade him. You need to think about this --> He's going to be given every opportunity to run for 2000 yards and set the TD record to keep the defense off the field as much as possible this year. However, just for fun lets analyze.

 

Lets just say Jackson has a great season! Maybe 1700 total yards and 15 TDs. That would make him top 5. Lets say Marvin isn't slowed down much by his recent elbow surgery and does his standard 1100 and 12 TDs. The 2007 pick doesn't do much for me considering its a keeper league.

 

Lets give LJ 2300 total yards and 25 TDs. Personally, I think this is conservative considering he was a part-timer for 7 games last year and did 2100 and 21 TDs. In non-ppr, SJ +MH = LJ + 500 yards and 2 TDs. So, the question is can you come up with a WR that can put up the extra 500 total yards and 2 TDs that Jackson and Harrison give you? I frickin hope so!

 

Even if somebody gave you a WR that put up a Randy Moss injury-free type season of 1400 and 15 TDs, you would only need to find a WR that could hit 800 and 5 TDs. So unless you really want to take the chance of trading a guy that has a legit chance to put up the best fantasy RB season ever, you don't even contemplate a deal. Nobody can give you what you need out of a deal unless you get LT and Shaun in my opinion...and thats never going to happen.

 

MOre info is needed such as your point system. Your current roster and your trade partners current roster. And how many keepers you get to keep each year and the number of teams in the league. However my first impression would be to take it and run. LJ could be the best RB in the league this year however he could also end up on the back side of ten as well. If you compare his stats to those of another top10 runningback, one of the best WR in the league and next years first round pick which could land you another top player I dont see what the question would be. Unless you are already completely stacked at WR this would be a nobrainer.

 

 

You must be the guy trading SJax and Marvin.

[Jay 0]

Lets give LJ 2300 total yards and 25 TDs. Personally, I think this is conservative.....

 

Quote of the day.

[Freak Jones 0]

Quote of the day.

Nice! Ok,ok, so conservative was not the best word to leave in that sentence. My bad.... I believe realistic, considering his 2005 output, would have been a better choice.

[Raider 84 29]

LJ should outscore the other two guys combined.

[Freak Jones 0]

LJ should outscore the other two guys combined.

 

Thats about what I thought, but I thought for kicks we could inflate Jackson's numbers a bit and pretend Marvin didn't just have surgery.

[gpann101 32]

I personally would keep LJ but it is a good trade offer, i can see where you would be on the fence about it.

[m_ichen 0]

Hehe, my first post, so I'll try and make it decent.

Seems like a lot of people would make the trade, but most of the posts have been favoring LJ...

I'd hafta lean towards pulling the trigger on that deal.

When you break it down, it seems like you're trading away a top 3 pick for a late first rounder, an early third rounder, and a first round pick in next year's keeper, which I think will net you a decent player, which accounts to perhaps a midround selection.

Jax is a mile above the next RB on the STL depth chart w/ Marshall going from Superman to Christopher Reeves, so I think he'll be given every opportunity to shine. Plus Martz gone means more running.

And Marvin will be Marvin until proven otherwise, meaning a solid 1000+ yards and 10+ TDs.

I also think people are waaaay overhyping LJ. I think a lot of his production last year came from an insane offensive line. Watching a few Chiefs games last year, the holes I saw that OL create, even Kevin Barlow coulda sprung for 1200 and 12+. So with one guy on the line retired, Roaf w/ injury issues, and Shields getting up in years, I don't see LJ producing the crazy 2300+ yards and 25-30 TDs people are talking about, although no doubt he will still be extremely productive and in all likelyhood a top 3 back.

But all in all, I'd make the trade without much hesitation.

[Jay 0]

I actually voted for the LJ side of the deal, but here is my concern about him.

 

###### Vermeil is gone. Al Saunders is gone. His supporting cast is OLD. It does appear that he should be able to put up outstanding numbers this year....BUT.....will Edwards be able to maintain the offensive efficiency of his predecessors? Will the wheels fall off next year without Roaf and Shields?

 

In addition.

Scott Linehan joins St Louis. He has had incredible offensive production in his last two stops in Minnesota and Miami. This includes a Miami team without a credible quarterback. The running backs in these systems scored a lot of points.

 

Marvin played with the injuries that he had surgery to fix. I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt there. It's not like they were related to his leg or knee.

 

That said.....I'd probably lean toward taking LJ, but this is a very fair deal, IMO.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

I'd strongly consider that trade although I'm not so sure about Harrison because of his age. What's LJ going to do next year? The KC offense could look vastly different in 2007. The offensive line may need to be totally replaced, Trent Green may move on, Larry may hold out on his contract, and you could get 3 players for one. Larry may never again be worth as much as he is right now.

 

I'd use your leverage with a stud like LJ but LJ is not untradeable.

[Freak Jones 0]

Hehe, my first post, so I'll try and make it decent.

Seems like a lot of people would make the trade, but most of the posts have been favoring LJ...

I'd hafta lean towards pulling the trigger on that deal.

When you break it down, it seems like you're trading away a top 3 pick for a late first rounder, an early third rounder, and a first round pick in next year's keeper, which I think will net you a decent player, which accounts to perhaps a midround selection.

Jax is a mile above the next RB on the STL depth chart w/ Marshall going from Superman to Christopher Reeves, so I think he'll be given every opportunity to shine. Plus Martz gone means more running.

And Marvin will be Marvin until proven otherwise, meaning a solid 1000+ yards and 10+ TDs.

I also think people are waaaay overhyping LJ. I think a lot of his production last year came from an insane offensive line. Watching a few Chiefs games last year, the holes I saw that OL create, even Kevin Barlow coulda sprung for 1200 and 12+. So with one guy on the line retired, Roaf w/ injury issues, and Shields getting up in years, I don't see LJ producing the crazy 2300+ yards and 25-30 TDs people are talking about, although no doubt he will still be extremely productive and in all likelyhood a top 3 back.

But all in all, I'd make the trade without much hesitation.

 

You are correct about anyone being able to run behind that line. Roaf and Shields are still there through this year. Their skills aren't going to suddenly diminish in one year. They are linemen, not receivers. For this reason, the O-line won't be an issue this year. Like I said earlier he put 2100 and 21 with nearly the same line last year even though he didn't start until week 9. So 2300 total yards and 25 is just as possible for LJ as 1600 total yards and 15 are for SJax.

 

Having said that, Jarvis and Jay make a good point about LJ and 2007 and beyond. I was probably a bit short-sighted in that respect. If it were me, I would keep LJ in an attempt to take this years championship and take the chance at making a similar deal at the end of the season. If he does put up what he's capable of this year, somebody is going to overlook the O-line drop-off likely in 2007 and will make you a pretty good deal after the season.

[jdon 28]

In my keeper league I offered SJax, Chad Johnson and my #1... I got turned down and was dumbfounded...

[remote controller 133]

It is a very tempting offer. The type you hope to never face. You get a guy like LJ, and it's hard to part with him. I have Harrison rated as the #2 wideout this year, and Jackson, the #8 Rb, currently. Getting "his" #1 next year????....or "the" #1 next year???? I would be very tempted, but if he came this far, he might just try a little harder. I'd test him.

[Freak Jones 0]

In my keeper league I offered SJax, Chad Johnson and my #1... I got turned down and was dumbfounded...

 

If you are willing to give all of that up to get LJ, ie. have LJ over that, why would you be dumbfounded that someone else would be willing to keep LJ over that?

 

Even if someone thinks a trade is fair, its all about preference.

[BREWSTER_MIL 0]

id make the trade in a heart beat

[Savage Beast 1]

Im in a keeper league and very interested in this trade please comment.

 

How many players do you keep in this league each year? If it's only 2 or 3, I would keep LJ.

[Ras66not99 0]

MOre info is needed such as your point system. Your current roster and your trade partners current roster. And how many keepers you get to keep each year and the number of teams in the league. However my first impression would be to take it and run. LJ could be the best RB in the league this year however he could also end up on the back side of ten as well. If you compare his stats to those of another top10 runningback, one of the best WR in the league and next years first round pick which could land you another top player I dont see what the question would be. Unless you are already completely stacked at WR this would be a nobrainer.

 

I agree with this here.... you need to explain more about the trade and your current roster... I love Stephen Jackson in a Dynasty league and Marvin Harrison is still an elite Wr in FF..... what # 1 pick are you getting in the deal? Is it top 4 pick so you can you acquire one of the 4 big Rb's coming out this year ? Who are your Wr's now ? and whats in your backfield......

[jdon 28]

If you are willing to give all of that up to get LJ, ie. have LJ over that, why would you be dumbfounded that someone else would be willing to keep LJ over that?

 

Even if someone thinks a trade is fair, its all about preference.

 

I agree with preferences, howver I was dumfounded in that I thought I was wayyyyy overpaying... I only wanted to do it because I would be able to have shaun alexander and lJ as my backs and I would still have roy williams and DJAx as my wide outs... conversely his team is: portis, lj, eli manning, reggie wayne, and a bunch of bums...

[Freak Jones 0]

I agree with preferences, howver I was dumfounded in that I thought I was wayyyyy overpaying... I only wanted to do it because I would be able to have shaun alexander and lJ as my backs and I would still have roy williams and DJAx as my wide outs... conversely his team is: portis, lj, eli manning, reggie wayne, and a bunch of bums...

Over the long term, if I had LJ, I would definitely spend some time considering your trade of SJax, #85 and a 2007 #1. I still wouldn't do the original thread deal though.

 

My thing is for all the people downplaying LJ's possible stats this year, there are an awful lot of people touting Jackson's "potential". People are willing to project LJ's stats at less than he put up last year in less than full-time duty, yet some of these same people are inflating SJax numbers significantly. When looking at those type of projections, these deals look like no-brainers. However, unless I missed something, SJax started 6 more games than LJ but ran for 700 less yards and scored 11 less TDs. Yet now that LJ is going to be the full-time starter all year, we're supposed to believe this gap will shrink? Show me why St. Louis is going to be able to run alot more. Did the Rams defense suddenly move up 20 spots? Are they all of a sudden not going to have to throw the ball to catch up against Seattle and Arizona twice a year? I don't think SJax is going to find alot of running room against Chicago, Carolina, San Diego, Denver and Washington this year.

 

LJ proved what he could do against the worst and best run defenses alike last year. If Roaf and Shields were 5 years younger, I wouldn't even consider the deal. Since they aren't I would ride him to the playoffs this year and trade him after seasons end.

[nobody 2,043]

These 2 for one trades are tough because you have to consider the fact that you are starting two guys instead of one if you make the trade, so even if Steven Jackson and Harrison combined outscore LJ, it still might not be a good deal. You need to decide if Jackson and Harrison will outscore LJ + player X that you no longer have room for in your starting lineup.

[m_ichen 0]

You are correct about anyone being able to run behind that line. Roaf and Shields are still there through this year. Their skills aren't going to suddenly diminish in one year. They are linemen, not receivers. For this reason, the O-line won't be an issue this year. Like I said earlier he put 2100 and 21 with nearly the same line last year even though he didn't start until week 9. So 2300 total yards and 25 is just as possible for LJ as 1600 total yards and 15 are for SJax.

 

Having said that, Jarvis and Jay make a good point about LJ and 2007 and beyond. I was probably a bit short-sighted in that respect. If it were me, I would keep LJ in an attempt to take this years championship and take the chance at making a similar deal at the end of the season. If he does put up what he's capable of this year, somebody is going to overlook the O-line drop-off likely in 2007 and will make you a pretty good deal after the season.

 

That is true that linemen dont deteriorate right away. But the point is they're already MISSING one lineman, Roaf does have major injury concerns. AND I forgot one really big thing. Tony Richardson isn't in town anymore. Which means LJ no longer has the advantage of the best block FB in the business.

With those kind of changes, maybe every so often, the running lanes get just a bit narrower, and a 4 yard run goes for no gain, an 8 yard run goes for 4 yards, and the number of 25 yard TDs gets cut down a few.

[Freak Jones 0]

That is true that linemen dont deteriorate right away. But the point is they're already MISSING one lineman, Roaf does have major injury concerns. AND I forgot one really big thing. Tony Richardson isn't in town anymore. Which means LJ no longer has the advantage of the best block FB in the business.

With those kind of changes, maybe every so often, the running lanes get just a bit narrower, and a 4 yard run goes for no gain, an 8 yard run goes for 4 yards, and the number of 25 yard TDs gets cut down a few.

 

Ok, so you're an LJ doubter. Alot of people are questioning what LJ will do, but I haven't seen many actual guesses as to what he will produce from those people. Why don't you lay out your projections for LJ and SJax? You already said you think Marvin's good for about 1000 and 10. So since you're good with this deal, you must think Jackson is going to be within 300 total yards and 5-6 TDs of LJ. Because any more than that and SJax + Marvin is less than LJ + random receiver. My assumption is that I don't think anyone would have a problem finding a receiver at the end of the draft or on the wire that could put up 700 yards and 4-5 TDs.

 

If you truly think that Steven Jackson's stats will be that close to LJ's, than I understand why you would do the deal. The combined stats for SJ+MH=LJ+Random receiver. Plus you're getting a 2007 pick. However, even if LJ's stats are lower than some of the higher projections, including mine, I just don't believe SJax will be within 300 yards and 5-6 TDs.

[mdubz 0]

sjax is a very nice player and probably will be for a while and harrison has been great for a long time (although i think his numbers will start declining starting this year) but LJ is an absolute stud for many years to come (of course barring injury). he will be top 2 or 3 guaranteed if healthy for the next 5 years (if not more). you can't trade that unless you are getting a ton in return and eventhough you are getting two nice players, it's not enough IMO.

[mgs316 14]

This is why I say you keep LJ.

 

Imagine it's Sunday, you flip on the late game, Chief's/Raiders. By halftime, Larry has 130 yards and 2 td's. Just think how depressed you'd be even if you were getting production out of these other players. I'd rather have Larry on my team, even if he got hurt, then watch him blow up week after week and think, "I had that guy on my team 9 weeks ago." Then go throw-up.

[m_ichen 0]

Ok, so you're an LJ doubter. Alot of people are questioning what LJ will do, but I haven't seen many actual guesses as to what he will produce from those people. Why don't you lay out your projections for LJ and SJax? You already said you think Marvin's good for about 1000 and 10. So since you're good with this deal, you must think Jackson is going to be within 300 total yards and 5-6 TDs of LJ. Because any more than that and SJax + Marvin is less than LJ + random receiver. My assumption is that I don't think anyone would have a problem finding a receiver at the end of the draft or on the wire that could put up 700 yards and 4-5 TDs.

 

If you truly think that Steven Jackson's stats will be that close to LJ's, than I understand why you would do the deal. The combined stats for SJ+MH=LJ+Random receiver. Plus you're getting a 2007 pick. However, even if LJ's stats are lower than some of the higher projections, including mine, I just don't believe SJax will be within 300 yards and 5-6 TDs.

 

I don't think LJ is THAT phenomenal of a player. He's big, fairly fast, but I think he's a product of the OLine (deteriorating) and Al Saunder's Offense (gone). Also the Chiefs were giving him 30 carries a game last year, because he was so fresh from getting 8 carries a game for the first half. I don't think they can keep handing it to him 30 times a game, or he'll wear down like any human being would. If he goes and puts up those same insane #s from last year for a FULL year this time, then I stand corrected and will be in full support of LJ, but until then, these are my projections (rough avg over next few years):

 

LJ: 1850 total yards, 18-20 total TDs

Jax: 1550 total yards, 13-15 total TDs

Marvin: 1000, 10

 

So, to make up the difference, I'd need a WR that puts out about 700 yards and 5TD + whatever I'd lose from the keeper pick. AND even then, with the same statistical output, I'd rather have it spread over 2 studs than mostly coming from one super-stud for injury and depth purposes.

 

Maybe you think my projections for LJ are a bit low, but with the offensive changes in KC, I don't see the 25 rushing TD seasons anymore. And I don't think you can project LJ's stats from last year out to a full year because, like i said, he was getting 30 touches a game last year, and 30*16 = 480 touches, not gonna happen.

[m_ichen 0]

sjax is a very nice player and probably will be for a while and harrison has been great for a long time (although i think his numbers will start declining starting this year) but LJ is an absolute stud for many years to come (of course barring injury). he will be top 2 or 3 guaranteed if healthy for the next 5 years (if not more). you can't trade that unless you are getting a ton in return and eventhough you are getting two nice players, it's not enough IMO.

 

I don't think KC's line will last the next 5 years. And unless they replace immediately with some studs, LJ will suffer. Remember when Jamal was unstoppable running behind Ogden and Mulitalo, well now they're older and look what happened to Jamal. And CP hasn't yet been able to match his Denver #s since leaving behind that cut-blocking OLine system. I think people vastly underestimate the effects of a good line.

 

Also, just due to general fantasy value fluctuations. I'd rather have 2 top players than 1. I mean, remember last year, LT was #1 and nobody else was even close. Well that's changed. Same with the days of Ahman being a top 3 RB, etc, etc. I'd rather have my #s coming equally from a bunch of guys than just one.