Talk me out of R. Brown with #4

[Killfish 0]

Got some kinda gut feeling....I think Tiki'ss ungodly season last year had a little to do with the struggles of Brandon Jacobs (fumble fest). Maybe I'm wrong, but I remember Tiki actually getting some goal line looks because of this last year. I think those TDs will be gone. Now combine Ricky's and Ronnies numbers from last year...should be solid. Am I way off here?

[dominus florenzus 0]

Got some kinda gut feeling....I think Tiki'ss ungodly season last year had a little to do with the struggles of Brandon Jacobs (fumble fest). Maybe I'm wrong, but I remember Tiki actually getting some goal line looks because of this last year. I think those TDs will be gone. Now combine Ricky's and Ronnies numbers from last year...should be solid. Am I way off here?

TIKI. You are wrong about him. Draft him.... (unless you are in my league, where I have #5)

[thenewlibrahi2 0]

don't mind ronnie, tiki, or jackson at 4 at all!

[jedeye 0]

You're not nuts. This year more then ever, there are questions surrounding many of the "top" backs. A few weeks ago, Portis was the clear choice at #4, but since his injury and subsequent trade for Duckett, even that is somewhat in question now. S. Jackson has tendinitis issues right now. Why not Brown?

 

I'm not saying that you are right, but I'm not saying that you're wrong either.

[clintbob 0]

tiki said he is not getting the goal line tds.this could drop his tds by half.he is over the 30 hill too.will it get him this yr.

[murf74 461]

I say Tiki comes with almost no questions at all. Same offense, same vulture, same QB, same coach....everything stays the same.

 

Sjax is a little more proven thant Brown. Both have new offensive coordinators, Brown has a new QB too. I like Sjax coach better than Mularky.

 

I already own Sjax, got him at #5 a couple days ago. I have the #5 again in a draft on Monday....if Tiki is there I take him. If Tiki goes first, I will probably take Brown cause I already own Sjax.

 

I think it is a coin flip unless Stephen Davis does sign w/ Rams

[VaTerp 0]

Got some kinda gut feeling....I think Tiki'ss ungodly season last year had a little to do with the struggles of Brandon Jacobs (fumble fest). Maybe I'm wrong, but I remember Tiki actually getting some goal line looks because of this last year. I think those TDs will be gone. Now combine Ricky's and Ronnies numbers from last year...should be solid. Am I way off here?

 

One of the most illogical arguments I've ever heard agaisnt Tiki. How do you figure Tiki's success had anything to fo with the struggles of a rookie. Jacobs had 7 TD's in goalines situations.

 

If you wanna say you think Jacobs role will expand in his 2nd year fine, but to say what you said is just stupid IMO.

 

With all of the Portis developments, I have firmly entrenched at #4. If you like Ronnie at 4 then go ahead and pull the trigger but dont use illogical reasoning to do so.

[CoolGuy2006 0]

I actually love Ronnie Brown right now at #4. Why?? Tiki is a year older and has a MUCH harder run schedule than last year. SJAX is injury prone and is NOW nursing tendonitis in his heel.. Can you say Uh ohhh...

 

http://www.belleville.com/mld/belleville/s...e_st_louis_rams

 

Ronnie Brown is an all around great back. He runs hard, catches the ball out of the backfield, and is not afraid to run over people. I seriously would not be suprised to see him run for 1200-1400 yards and at least 10 TD's. A weak schedule during weeks 14-16 is also a big plus.

 

Tiki is the only other person I would take with the #4 pick..

[DanXIII 8]

I like Ronnie too...but there's no way in hell I'm taking ANY player at #4 overall based primarily on potential...and that's exactly what you're doing if you take Brown at 4. Plus I feel that the loss of McKinney is going to hurt his production more than people think...that o-line wasn't spectacular when fully healthy.

[Gepetto 996]

I have the 4th pick too. I was high on Tiki, but with Brandon Jacobs getting most or all of the goal line carries, I don't see Tiki getting enough touchdowns this year, and he's 31 years old so more likely to break down and the fact that he's carried the ball a ridiculous number of times the last two years. Besides Emmitt Smith and Barry Sanders, I can't think of a running back who hasn't broken down after that many carries.

 

Ronnie Brown has lots of talent, is the main man in Miami, and is young and doesn't have a lot of carries in his football career. What I'm trying to say is I'm drafting Ronnie at #4.

[4i's 0]

After LJ, LT2, and SA, other backs are a coin flips. You won't go wrong with R. Brown at 4th.

[rebooters 1]

i believe tiki's numbers will fall significantly. he is aging and had a heavy workload last year. my money is we are going to see a tiki decline from here on out. he will still be good and worth drafting in the first round but i believe he falls out of the top 5 this year. i think you cant blame yourself for taking ronnie/sjax/rudi/tiki. i just like the chances of the other three doing better than tiki. and to pick from those three i think the safest pick is rudi. im not high on sjax and i really love ronnie. the safest is rudi IMO.

[jedeye 0]

Just to throw something out there - is this a good year to draft Peyton early again? Most people wont think to do so after his "letdown" from last year. Peyton is about the closest thing to a sure-thing that you can get this year.

 

Just a thought.

[skinny43 0]

four words:

 

Mike Mularky, Offensive Coordinator.

[mgs316 14]

Ruuu-deeeeee, Ruuu-deeeeee....

[texasmouth 1]

I took Ronnie Brown at 5 tonight in my draft. Love the pick, would do it again. Brown at five is fine.

 

Tiki is great. I love the guy but he is a year older and he has to face three solid run defenses six times. Not good.

[davidbostonisgood 2]

rudi johnson is a can't miss....unless he gets injured...or has a bad year. OK go with brown.

[texasmouth 1]

rudi johnson is a can't miss....unless he gets injured...or has a bad year. OK go with brown.

That is the kind of logic I love.......

[CantTouchThis 23]

Past the top 3, you can insert any one of about 10 players at #4, it is just nuts how much uncertainty there is this year with RBs.

 

One thing is for sure, LUCK is going play as big a part as anything this year, as is with most years.

[texasmouth 1]

Past the top 3, you can insert any one of about 10 players at #4, it is just nuts how much uncertainty there is this year with RBs.

 

One thing is for sure, LUCK is going play as big a part as anything this year, as is with most years.

Nail on the head.

 

Great comments.

[CantTouchThis 23]

rudi johnson is a can't miss....unless he gets injured...or has a bad year. OK go with brown.

 

Chris Perry, injured Palmer, that is actually about it with Rudi, other than being a bust or getting injured. He is one of the more safer RB picks out there. The biggest question is how much will Perry cut into his carries, or if Palmer is not healthy, will that negatively affect his stats.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

Ronnie Brown has the most upside out of all the remaining RB after the big 3. The kid can play. The question is, can he hold up with 25 touches a game for 16 games this season.

The Risk and Reward is there. You have my "OKAY".

 

Skinny

 

Chris Perry, injured Palmer, that is actually about it with Rudi, other than being a bust or getting injured. He is one of the more safer RB picks out there. The biggest question is how much will Perry cut into his carries, or if Palmer is not healthy, will that negatively affect his stats.

 

If he stays healthy, he is gurantee to finish somewhere around 5-10. There is no way Rudi can be a top 3 back in this league. He just don't touch the ball enough.

[akaoni 0]

I'm high on Brown like lots of others here, but I'd like folks to think back on last year at this time and remeber a similar back who everybody was expecting big things from, namely K. Jones. We all know the rest of the story. Now I'm not saying that Brown will fail this year, but I think that it's best to go with the closest player you can get to a "sure thing" with at least your first two picks. For this reason, I like Tiki and Rudi better here, they both have proven track records. Will they set the world on fire? Probably not, but you can expect solid production from both...

[sow 0]

Perry most likely will start the year on the PUP list. He really did not cut into Rudi's production down the stretch last year, more so early in the year when Rudi struggled a little bit. I think they will lean hard on Rudi with the uncertainty of Palmer.

[OB1 33]

I don't think you are nuts. I'm very high on Brown, and as other's have said, after the big 3, it's really a quagmire. I'm not sure i'd feel 100% comfortable with taking Brown that high, but I can say the same about just about every other back out there.

 

Someone said Tiki has no questions, I COMPLETELY disagree with that.

 

Tiki is on the wrong side of 30, and carried the ball 354 times last year along with 50+ receptions. That's over 400 touches, and guys with that heavy of a workload almost always experience a big dropoff. In fact, read this article at fftoday to discover that Over 70% of them experience a dropoff of 20% in production or more. http://www.fftoday.com/articles/special/06_rb_heavy.htm Add into that the fact that he has never been a consistent visitor to the endzone in his career:

 

Check out these TD totals (combined Rus/Rec) over his career: 4,3,2,9,4,11,3,15,11. In 9 years he's had 5 seasons where he failed to score even 5 times. Yes, he's scored more than 10 times 3 out of the last 4, but he will lose goaline carries to Jacobs again this year, and you can't count on him having as many long TD runs again.

 

I'm not saying he will suddenly stink, and predicting injury is a losing proposition, but I just can't see myself taking him at 4 where a lot of people are. At that spot he needs to be the lynchpin of your team, and while he is one of the most consistent yardage monsters in the league, his erratic TD produciton + 31 years old + immense workload last season makes him a risky proposition as a top 4 pick IMHO.

 

That said, Ronnie Brown has not proven he can carry the full load for 16 games and produce. He certianly has the skills to do it and an offense around him that will help, but see Willis McGahee last year for examples of banking on what a guy 'could' do with his first featured role.

 

Spots 4-7 are the toughest in my opinion, you don't get the top 3 guys, and you likely won't get 2 tier 2 RBs or 1 + Manning, like the 8-10 might.

 

My advice would be take who you like. If you are a gambler and like Brown, go for it. He could very well be the next stud RB. If you are adverse to risk, go against the grain and take Rudi Johnson in my opinion. The guy has had back to back 1400/12 seasons, he runs behind one of the 3 best lines in football, with a D that will keep them in games enough for him to run. Oh and by the way, the guy people are scared might steal touches from him is likely going to start the year on the PUP list.

[Blue Balls 0]

I will be taking Ronnie @ 5th pick. Finally decided him over Edge and SJax. Ronnies' got huge potential, LaDanian-2?

[Ray_T 600]

well, I'd be taking either ronnie brown or Rudi Johnson with the #4 pick.

 

take that for what it's worth. I'm just glad I dont have to make that decision.

 

[xenophobe 1]

Brown is a fine choice at 4.

[Nate Burleson's Burly Son 0]

I guess I stand alone as not being sold on Ronnie Brown. This guy has nice potential, I'll say that, but this fantastic season that everyone hopes he's going to have has already been had- by proven backs like Rudi and Edge.

 

I have the same feelings about S.Jackson. Where is the justification in ranking him above Rudi and Edge? What has he yet acomplished in the NFL? Your first pick should be as sure a thing as you can get. If you don't have the stomach for the Portis debacle this year, that's understandable, but IMO Brown and Jackson are late 1st, early 2nd round picks at best.

[yukon151 0]

I have the pleasure of having the 4th pick as well. portis was the choice BEFORE the injury. i am not high on barber due to the possibility of losing goal line tds. i have narrowed it down to jackson or johnson. i would like to think jackson could be this years larry johnson, but think that is too mich of a stretch. rudi isn't as exciting of a pick but i picked mcgahee 6th overall last year and would like a sure bet this time. if rudi could be considered one. reading the responses to your post has convinced me to go with rudi over jackson. i think?

[Blue Balls 0]

I would have no problem selecting Rudi at #4, but in a PPR league, his value isn't as great as SJax, Edge or possinbly Brown.

[ellisonb11 0]

watch the game tonight?

 

ok, im not saying not to draft him at 4 just because of one game, but id much rather have tiki. barber has proven he can be a stud RB, so why go after a guy who had a decent season while splitting carries? he hasnt carried a load in the nfl yet.

 

10 carries for 12 yards.

[HilltopperVike 0]

Isn't Carolina one of the best, if not the top, rushing defenses in the league?

[Parja 0]

Isn't Carolina like the top rushing defense in the league?

 

Yup. I wouldn't judge Ronnie on tonight's performance. Go ahead and take him and rest easy that Miami doesn't play Carolina in the regular season.

[HilltopperVike 0]

One thing that has me worried a little about Ronnie (as stated in another post) is that Saban is some what of a RBBC guy. Who knows who they will get after the cuts, if anyone, but it is still something to think about.

[murf74 461]

I will be taking Ronnie @ 5th pick. Finally decided him over Edge and SJax. Ronnies' got huge potential, LaDanian-2?

 

I have had one draft w/ #5 pick and took Sjax. I have another draft with the #5 pick and I will take someone else (still assuming big 3 and Tiki are gone). I will look at Edge, Rudi, and Ronnie. I really wish Edge would play some so we can see if that offensive line is really as bad as most of us think.

 

Whatever you do, don't pass Tiki at #4, he is one of the few with no question marks. If you liked his performance last year, exactly what has changed that would make you think he would do worse? 9 months of age? Notta chance.

[Parja 0]

Whatever you do, don't pass Tiki at #4, he is one of the few with no question marks.

 

No question marks? Bein on the wrong side of 30 isn't a question mark?

 

If you liked his performance last year, exactly what has changed that would make you think he would do worse? 9 months of age? Notta chance.

 

Reference: See Priest Holmes, circa 2005.

[mikeod11 0]

Miami's O-line doesn't look very impressive, Brown is getting hit well before the LOS. Hopefully this is because Panthers D is so good.

[$0.02 1]

But he's also making positive yards out of nothing, which is the sign of a very good back.

[Rye & Leaf 0]

four words:

 

Mike Mularky, Offensive Coordinator.