** Official College Football Wagering Thead **

[markblaz 0]

philly, i have played all of your plays for the past 3 years. you have probably only lost like 6 or 7 weeks out of 3 years, that is unbelieveable. i have my own 1 unit value, and double and triple it for 2 and 3 unit picks. i can vouch for your excellent handicapping. thanks.

[cyclone24 1,913]

**Newb dumb question alert**

 

Any particular reason to steer away from these games and go more obscure games??

 

 

Seems like you would know more about the major teams?

 

I dunno....

[American Chewy 98]

So you going with texas to cover that tommorow?

 

now im scared you guys like Iowa State with the 7 points....makes me think you know something about my alma mater that i dont...hehe.

 

have faith! you haven't lost at home since baylor last year which i still don't undestand how that happened. the clones always get up for the huskers though! if ku can take the nuubs to overtime at lincoln, the clones should hang around too. you can lose faith when you come to manhattan later this year.

[Hurricane Ditka 0]

Momma named him Clay, I'm callin him Clay!

 

Name that movie?

[markblaz 0]

**Newb dumb question alert**

 

Any particular reason to steer away from these games and go more obscure games??

Seems like you would know more about the major teams?

 

I dunno....

vegas keeps a tighter line on the popular games. where as they let off a little bit on the smaller games. they want to make sure they clean up on the games that everyone is betting

[cyclone24 1,913]

have faith! you haven't lost at home since baylor last year which i still don't undestand how that happened. the clones always get up for the huskers though! if ku can take the nuubs to overtime at lincoln, the clones should hang around too. you can lose faith when you come to manhattan later this year.

 

 

I jsut dont see it.....i think NU rolls them.

 

Defense is atrocious, and offense isnt exactly great.

 

i think ill bet against ISU.....we're just not very good.

[phillybear 366]

philly, i have played all of your plays for the past 3 years. you have probably only lost like 6 or 7 weeks out of 3 years, that is unbelieveable. i have my own 1 unit value, and double and triple it for 2 and 3 unit picks. i can vouch for your excellent handicapping. thanks.

 

Dam. I had no idea it was that good.

 

Based on karma, I'll get killed this weekende.

 

But I am pretty happy to be up 45 units with a lot of weeks to go. The first couple weeks are tough every year, but I feel that I am getting a handle on these teams this year. And I mean every single team in Div 1-A. Fock, when Louisville was up 30-10 in the 4th quarter, I was wondering if that would be the final score, as I predicted. 44-17 wasn't close, but not that far off.

 

Dam. I sound like an arrogant ass. That's what happens when a Middle Tenn St covers on a Friday, when the world bet Louisville to crush them.

 

I am overdue for a humbling weekend. I hope it isn't this one. But you all have been warned. And, yes, I am drunk.

[markblaz 0]

Dam. I had no idea it was that good.

 

Based on karma, I'll get killed this weekende.

 

But I am pretty happy to be up 45 units with a lot of weeks to go. The first couple weeks are tough every year, but I feel that I am getting a handle on these teams this year. And I mean every single team in Div 1-A. Fock, when Louisville was up 30-10 in the 4th quarter, I was wondering if that would be the final score, as I predicted. 44-17 wasn't close, but not that far off.

 

Dam. I sound like an arrogant ass. That's what happens when a Middle Tenn St covers on a Friday, when the world bet Louisville to crush them.

 

I am overdue for a humbling weekend. I hope it isn't this one. But you all have been warned. And, yes, I am drunk.

i know how this whole gambling thing works now, i always expect the worst, but hope for the best. i know you are cautious of the trap games, and all that good stuff. i apply all the things you talk about when picking the pro games. i just dont have the knowledge or time to get real good at the capping the college games.

[phillybear 366]

vegas keeps a tighter line on the popular games. where as they let off a little bit on the smaller games. they want to make sure they clean up on the games that everyone is betting

 

Pretty much what I would have said. The lines on high profile game are usually razor sharp. Mich St and Notre Dame was on top of the line. Notre Dame and Purdue, push. Notre Dame is the most popular college team overall. Auburn/LSU. The list can go on, and on, and on. When ever you bet a high profile game, see how close the final score comes to the line. It's usually pretty close.

 

And this is why I like Canadian football. The lines are weak, the lines don't adjust that much, and there is definitely value to be gained. This is my first year betting CFL, and I am up nearly 11 units.

 

Which also makes the NFL so tough. Those lines are incredibly sharp. Basically, because they have to be, with all the overwhelming action on the NFL.

[weberasylum 0]

Momma named him Clay, I'm callin him Clay!

 

Name that movie?

 

 

Coming to America - great scene with Eddie Murphy

[phillybear 366]

I jsut dont see it.....i think NU rolls them.

 

Defense is atrocious, and offense isnt exactly great.

 

i think ill bet against ISU.....we're just not very good.

 

I didn't play it, yet, but it seems like Iowa St always plays up and down depending on the level of their competition. Nebraska has had opportunities to step up, and become a national force, but never take advantage. Like a horrible game plan against overrated USC. Like being up 17-0 on Kansas early, and ending up in overtime. Like struggling with La Tech, until pulling away in the second half. Something about that team just makes me nervous. This is more of a non play based on Nebraska's non-dominating nature, despite the fact that they have the talent to be dominating. Something seems wrong with that team. I feel more comfortable taking Nebraska as a dog, than laying a TD on the road.

[GiantsRule 0]

Pretty much what I would have said. The lines on high profile game are usually razor sharp. Mich St and Notre Dame was on top of the line. Notre Dame and Purdue, push. Notre Dame is the most popular college team overall. Auburn/LSU. The list can go on, and on, and on. When ever you bet a high profile game, see how close the final score comes to the line. It's usually pretty close.

 

And this is why I like Canadian football. The lines are weak, the lines don't adjust that much, and there is definitely value to be gained. This is my first year betting CFL, and I am up nearly 11 units.

 

Which also makes the NFL so tough. Those lines are incredibly sharp. Basically, because they have to be, with all the overwhelming action on the NFL.

 

Agreed, the NFL is a tough nut to crack. That's why prop bets have such value, especially when you're a stat junkie (which we all must be since we play fantasy football). As long as you bet $500/game or less (because the books have to do something to account for sharp players that know what the individual players are capable of.)

[American Chewy 98]

Hey Chewy and Philly?

 

What has you guys on all the smaller schools or games for Saturday?

 

C. Michigan, W. Michigan, Kent, BG, EC?

 

on kent because of what philly wrote before the season began about all their returning starters...they've covered 4 straight since the minn game. but more than anything this is a fade temple play. only last week did they finally set the line high enough (32.5) for a not so good vandy to not cover against them (43-14). kent is better than vandy and the line is lower? still not getting respect.

 

bowling green because i think ohio st lets down a bit after the big win last week over iowa. ohio st is 5-0 ATS this year, but they've barely covered their home games and trailed for a while in 2 of them (cincy, penn st). bowling green is better than cincy in my rankings and has also played well on the road this year (2-0) including their upset win last week at ohio. there is also some wierd line movement here, over 70% on osu yet line moved down 3.

 

and if bowling green can win at ohio then an even better w. michigan team should too. w. michigan has had 2 weeks to prepare here and is gaining momentum after 3 straight wins/covers. ohio is reeling with 3 straight losses. w. michigan is my highest rated mac team for sure.

 

fade virginia, they are terrible. can you believe the cavs opened a favorite here? yet despite about 70% on virginia ECU is now a 6.5 pt fav?? wierd.

[Da Bomb 0]

i thought you all should know that LSU tomorrow is my lock of the year so far. theyre simply a better team, and theyre going to dominate florida. they'll win outright for sure. its free money. bet the house. thank me later.

[brzrboy 0]

Let's get some discussion going with this Clemson/Wake Forest total at 44. How in the world is it that low? I know Wake Forest is 5-0, but come on, is their defense really that good? Wake has beaten Syracuse, UConn, Duke, Mississippi, and Liberty. That's not exactly a murderer's row. Clemson is 4-1 and is averaging 44 pts a game. They destroyed two cupcakes, La Tech and Fla Atlantic. They also put up 33 in 2OT against BC, 27 vs Flor. St., and 52 on North Carolina. The past two meetings between the two schools have totaled 67 and 58. The past 3 meetings of Clemson at Wake have been overs. The past 5 meetings between the two schools have been overs. The weather is supposed to be 60% chance of rain, moderate winds, high of 60. For the 50 college games that VegasInsider has listed for Saturday, this is the only game that has more than a 40% chance of rain? very weird. But, I'm still not seeing why the total is so low? Is either team battling a major injury at QB/RB? I see Clemson is without their leading receiver Stuckey. If this game ends up being a 17-14 snoozefest, I will shut my mouth about low totals for the rest of the year. Take the over. Found one more positive stat......In the last three years, when Wake Forest has been a dog by 10-21 pts, the over is 6-0. Even if there is substantial rainfall, I could see Clemson's running game going nuts or even multiple turnovers leading to points.

[needmoremoney 0]

Ok, i guess i'll finally make a post after riding on the great luck of everyone else...

 

1H Tulsa -3 1 unit LOSER

Tulsa -5 3 units WINNER

Tulsa 2H -3 2 units WINNER

NC State +10 1 unit WINNER

Utah -2 1 unit WINNER

2H Utah PK 3 units WINNER

1H Mid. Tenn +17.5 1 unit WINNER

W. Michigan -4 3 units

Pittsburg -7 3 units

Clemson -16.5 1 unit

BYU -28 1 unit

Navy ML 1 unit

Wyoming -1.5 2 units

Oregon +5 1 unit

Kent -1 1 unit

New Mexico State ML 3 units

Cen. Michigan +2.5 1 unit

E. Carolina -6.5 1 unit

Washington U +19 1 unit

California/Oregon o60 1 unit

 

Added a few plays from philly-goodluckcharm-bear, who i have quietly followed for a few years....

 

I rarely play o/u in college football, but couldn't resist making a small play on my alma mater... Cal's running on full cyclinders following their embarassing loss at Tennessee. Longshore has the confidence to make throws to his Hawkins, Jackson or even Lynch. Oregon prides themselves on their front lines and have gotten a good number of sacks, but they arent that effective against the run. Cal will find some open holes for Lynch (actually, Lynch will find his own holes) to keep the defenses honest and make some nice gains downfield. Cal's passing offense and QB is a lot more potent than the Sooner's who put up 30+ points.

 

Oregon's got a mobile QB thats also been leading their team to many points this season. Cal's secondary has not been as strong this year and I believe that Dixon's mobility and Duck's potent offense will put up at least 4 TDs in this game.

 

I also am not a big fan of betting one high profile games, so I'll just put a little on the shootout and enjoy listening to a back and forth game at the campfire this weekend.

[Yer mom 2]

Let's get some discussion going with this Clemson/Wake Forest total at 44. How in the world is it that low? I know Wake Forest is 5-0, but come on, is their defense really that good? Wake has beaten Syracuse, UConn, Duke, Mississippi, and Liberty. That's not exactly a murder's row. Clemson is 4-1 and is averaging 44 pts a game. They destroyed two cupcakes, La Tech and Fla Atlantic. They also put up 33 in 2OT against BC, 27 vs Flor. St., and 52 on North Carolina. The past two meetings between the two schools have totaled 67 and 58. The past 3 meetings of Clemson at Wake have been overs. The past 5 meetings between the two schools have been overs. The weather is supposed to be 60% chance of rain, moderate winds, high of 60. I'm not seeing why the total is so low? Is either team battling a major injury at QB/RB? I see Clemson is without their leading receiver Stuckey. If this game ends up being a 17-14 snoozefest, I will shut my mouth about low totals for the rest of the year. Take the over.

 

 

I second this, im looking at exactly the same thing. The crystal ball shows me a 34-17 game. I cant see Clemson scoring less than 31 here and Wake at home in this game scoring less than 17 which would put it over anyway. It bothers me that the total is that low cause I think to myself, dammit, why do they post it at 44 when I figure it to be at least 48. Regardless of where the line goes, I will wait until kickoff just to be sure I can see what mother nature has in store. But I agree. I was averaging 6-1-1 wagering games the first 3 weeks before I went to Vegas and let my guard down, got the over tonight and hope to continue. I will absolutely ride this itty-bitty new winning streak on that over tomorrow if there is no rain!

 

Good luck!

 

Ah hell, im not waiting im taking it now at 44 incase it jumps to 45.5 or something. 31-14 gets me what I need. Clear skies please!!

[brzrboy 0]

I second this, im looking at exactly the same thing. The crystal ball shows me a 34-17 game. I cant see Clemson scoring less than 31 here and Wake at home in this game scoring less than 17 which would put it over anyway. It bothers me that the total is that low cause I think to myself, dammit, why do they post it at 44 when I figure it to be at least 48. Regardless of where the line goes, I will wait until kickoff just to be sure I can see what mother nature has in store. But I agree. I was averaging 6-1-1 wagering games the first 3 weeks before I went to Vegas and let my guard down, got the over tonight and hope to continue. I will absolutely ride this itty-bitty new winning streak on that over tomorrow if there is no rain!

 

Good luck!

 

Ah hell, im not waiting im taking it now at 44 incase it jumps to 45.5 or something. 31-14 gets me what I need. Clear skies please!!

 

 

I agree, I'm getting on it now. This total has to go up overnight, and if it doesn't, there must be one hell of a torrential downpour going on. The 1st Q at 9.5 and the 1st H at 21.5 look attractive for the over also. Clemson's games have had 1st Q totals of 10, 10, 8, 21, 10 and 1st H totals of 24, 27, 23, 35, 31.

[phillybear 366]

Got a couple hours of sleep. Time to punch the time card, and back to work.

[phillybear 366]

Repost...

 

Overall College YTD: 102-78-4; +45.17 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 42-25-1; +41.72 units

 

Saturday

 

All for 1 unit, unless indicated otherwise. In time order. I will be adding more, upgrading, and inevitably putting in some alcohol driven 1st and 2nd Half plays during the games tomorrow. Tomorrow morning, if I change anything, I'll include an edit at the bottom of this post. But I am sure I will be adding throughout tonight. I appreciate all the kind words from you knuckleheads, but when I go on a losing streak, you'll learn to dislike me. Hopefully we can delay that for a while longer.

 

Early

 

Penn St (-3) LOSER

Western Michigan (-4) for 3 units LOSER!!!!!

North Carolina (+19) LOSER

Texas A&M (-1.5) WINNER

Kent (-24) for 3 units LOSER!!!!!

Buffalo (+4) LOSER

Tulane (Moneyline@+115) WINNER

Air Force (-2.5) LOSER

Mississippi St (+21) for 2 units LOSER!!

Stanford (+29) for 2 units WINNER!!

Florida (-1) for 2 units WINNER!!

Washington (+19) WINNER

Georgia Tech (-14) LOSER

Oklahoma St (-2.5) LOSER

Cincinnati (-6.5) LOSER

Baylor (+5) WINNER

New Mexico St (PK) for 3 units LOSER!!!!!

OVER NMSt/Idaho (61) for 3 units LOSER!!!!!

Colorado St (-17.5) for 2 units WINNER!!

East Carolina (-6.5) WINNER

 

Overall 8-12; -11.95 units

2 unit plays or higher: 3-5; -9.4 units

 

Late

 

Kentucky (+4.5) for 2 units LOSER!!

Arkansas St (-5.5) LOSER

Central Michigan (Moneyline@+120) WINNER

UAB (-5) WINNER

Washington St (-3) WINNER

South Florida (-6.5) for 3 units WINNER!!!!!

South Florida (-2)@-105 for the 2nd H for 3 units WINNER!!!!!

Arkansas St (-4.5) for the 2nd half for 3 units WINNER!!!!!

New Mexico (+1.5) for 2 units LOSER!!

New Mexico 2nd H (+3)@-115 for 3 units LOSER!!!!!

La Tech (+36) LOSER

SMU (+10) WINNER

UTEP (-3.5)@-115 for 2nd H for 3 units LOSER!!!!!

Hawaii 1st H (-7) for 3 units WINNER!!!!!

Hawaii (-9.5) for 3 units LOSER!!!!!

Parlay Hawaii 1st H (-7.5) and No Illinois 1st H (-7) 3 units to win 7.33 units

 

Good luck to all

[chiz3 1]

I love reading all this stuff, wish I had the balls to bet the games you guys do. Look a nice little L with TCU the other night, so this is the first Sat I go into down $$.

 

YTD 22-11

 

Pitt-7 (they are looking for respect.Palko highest qb rating in college)

AUB-15 1/2 (not why this line is so low...probably find out.)

Navy+3 (Navy seems to cover alomst every game.Blew PAT last week)

GT-14 1/2(could be let down week OR go off week)

SFLA-7(liked them , then saw some of you guys liked them too.)

Hawaii 12 1/2(always like the 'Bows at home)

 

GL

[PackYourNut 47]

Momma named him Clay, I'm callin him Clay!

 

Name that movie?

 

 

That movie doesnt exist... But if you said... "Mama named him Cassius" then that's is Coming to America...

[Hurricane Ditka 0]

i thought you all should know that LSU tomorrow is my lock of the year so far. theyre simply a better team, and theyre going to dominate florida. they'll win outright for sure. its free money. bet the house. thank me later.

Do not use the "L" word on this thread. What are you trying to do give me a heart attack so early in the morning?

[art schlichter's bookie 0]

Added South FLa -6.5 WINNER, BG WINNER +36.5, Hawaii -12, Iowa St +7 LOSER and Wash St -3 WINNER

 

got a lot of games today...but still like LSU and Pitt the best.

 

 

GL to all

[Hurricane Ditka 0]

YTD- 72-30-6 (+60.55 units)

 

Navy +3

Oregon +4.5

Iowa State +7

Georgia +3-- 2 units

Wake Forest +17

USC -19

Pitt -7

Texas AM -2

Texas -4-- 2 units

Texas Tech -4

South Florida -6

Georgia Tech -14

 

Added:

Mid Tenny St over 11.5 WIN

Louyville -17.5 1st half LOSS

Nevada +12

Iowa -11

Florida PK

Penn State -3

Washington State -3

UCLA/Arizona over 40-- 2 units

Tennessee/Georgia over 38

Wake/Clemson over 44

Georgia over 18

Stanford over 12.5-- 2 units

Western Michigan -4-- 2 units

Stanford +30

West Virginia -13.5 (1st half)

 

Laying $750 today, need to beat the juice! 13 wins with a couple of double units wins is the goal for the day!

[Yer mom 2]

Very very bent that were not getting the Hawaii/Nevada game televised on fox sports west tonight on the West Coast. Every year the Hawaii home games are the most fun of games to look forward to and you got to wager into the wee hours. Ridiculous scoring. Anyone have any info on the best College package to get through COX or oterwise? Suggestions appreciated.

 

Back to matters of wagering, The over for Clemson/Wake is already laid. Looking ahead to Michigan/Michigan St, rivals or not two teams headed in completely opposite directions. Ringer is hurt, Stantons ribs are bruised and is one good shot away from leaving the game. And who the hell loses at home to Illinois??? They cant be confident coming into this game. The last 3 meetings have been decided by 8 points or less, but if Michigan jumps out early, State will probably fold and we will have a 38-17 type score.

 

 

Good luck!

[dpollaro 0]

NCAA YTD (19-14-1)

 

Early games (will post late games when I get the lines)

ALl 1 unit unless noted otherwise

 

4 Team Teaser - LOSS

Louisville -17.5

Auburn -2

West Va -7.5

Wisc -7.5

 

Pitt -7 WIN

Tex A&M +1 WIN

Kent St -24 (2 units) LOSS

West Virginia -20.5 WIN

Georgia Tech -14

Texas -4

Colorado -6 (2 units)

New Mex St PK

East Carolina -6

 

good luck all

[GiantsRule 0]

F'n Wake Forest. I could have called that fumble from a mile away...before they even touched the ball.

[Yer mom 2]

F'n Wake Forest. I could have called that fumble from a mile away...before they even touched the ball.

 

 

Exactly, I had a bad feeling too when the kickoff didnt go the distance. WAY disheartening to see so many points left on the field so early. Very bad.

[iceblumist610 0]

Pretty much what I would have said. The lines on high profile game are usually razor sharp. Mich St and Notre Dame was on top of the line. Notre Dame and Purdue, push. Notre Dame is the most popular college team overall. Auburn/LSU. The list can go on, and on, and on. When ever you bet a high profile game, see how close the final score comes to the line. It's usually pretty close.

 

And this is why I like Canadian football. The lines are weak, the lines don't adjust that much, and there is definitely value to be gained. This is my first year betting CFL, and I am up nearly 11 units.

 

Which also makes the NFL so tough. Those lines are incredibly sharp. Basically, because they have to be, with all the overwhelming action on the NFL.

 

 

There are two sides to it though. While the lines are sharper, most of us know a lot more about the big teams than about the small ones, so we can make more informed bets. Personally, I follow the SEC (particularly Tennessee) strongly, and everything else as much as I can. Thus, the only lines in big games I will play are usually SEC games.

 

My covers name is "Lackman". I check out that site religiously.

 

So you just check the site a lot and don't post much? I haven't seen you around. But I suppose that makes sense. I don't post in detail on two sites either. I occasionally post here, but it's definitely secondary (this year, I didn't find covers 'til last November). BTW, my name over there is Arid_Torpor

[phillybear 366]

Western Michigan is in trouble. They gave up a punt return for a TD, and two quick turnovers, down 14-0.

 

Ugly start to this day.

[iceblumist610 0]

Indiana is in trouble. Is Indiana this bad, or is Illinois actually good?

[GiantsRule 0]

Western Michigan is in trouble. They gave up a punt return for a TD, and two quick turnovers, down 14-0.

 

Ugly start to this day.

 

This is the bloodbath I've been dreading. Pittsburgh fumbles then can't covert a 4th down on the Cuse 20 and Cuse driving. The West. Mich. game was over three minutes into it. Texas A&M looks like horsesh!t!

 

I hope this improves soon.

 

Question for Ditka: I NEVER question any of your plays. If something doesn't look right, I don't take it. But I can't figure out why you're on the Stanford team Over. I was about to lay money on it (at Over 11.5) until I looked and saw that Stanford has scored 10 points or less in 3 of 4 games. Hard enough to see why you expect them to put up at least 1 TD and a pair of FGs, much less why you mad it a 2X play.

[EAwer 1]

wow down 14-0 and they go for a FG on the 5 yard line on 4th an 1 and a half......and miss fk western

[GiantsRule 0]

wow down 14-0 and they go for a FG on the 5 yard line on 4th an 1 and a half......and miss fk western

 

Just do what I did: Write it off as a loss and look at the rest of your card. Not worth following...

[iceblumist610 0]

And you know it just isn't your day...

 

when Temple takes the lead over Kent State.

[GiantsRule 0]

WHY THE FVCK CAN'T ANY GAME GO ON WITHOUT A KEY FUMBLE?!?

 

Unreal!

[Grind 0]

What is going on with that Hawaii/Nevada spread. At 14 now. Didn't it start around 10 and was 12 an hour or so ago.

 

Michigan should win easily. Different OC and DC making this Michigan team different then any the last seven years. This team reminds me of 97 and Michigan covered most every week that year. I won a ton of cash on them.

[Yer mom 2]

Ask for poor execution and I give you Clemson/Wake....just ugly. Just looking at this over as a probable loss

 

Took Auburn in the 2nd half -7 for 2 Benjis......they just have to win here.

 

Later plays:

 

Michigan -15

Oregon/Cal over 61

Hawaii/Nevada over 62

 

 

Good luck!!!

[iceblumist610 0]

WOW! Kent down 10-7 and just threw an interception in the end zone. How on earth...?