***Official College Wagering Thread - Week of Oct 31***

[GiantsRule 0]

Yer Mom, Ditka, philly, get it going:

 

Alabama Birmingham vs. SMU

 

Alabama Birmingham +4.5

Moneyline: +165

Team Total: 21.5

 

SMU -4.5

Moneyline: -185

Team Total: 26.5

 

Over/Under 48

 

Make it a good one. That Over 39 is going to sting until kickoff tomorrow.

[GiantsRule 0]

Took the over (naturally). Off-Saturday games have killed the over this season, but I'm trusting these C-USA sqauds to put up the points.

[phillybear 365]

Overall College YTD: 180-150-4; +36.92 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 81-61-1; +39.87 units

CFL: 19-13; +11.95 units

Tuesday

 

OVER UAB/SMU (49) for 2 unit LOSER!!

 

Key angles:

SMU QB Justin Willis is ranked #8 in nation in pass efficiency, with 19 TDs and 3 INTs

SMU averages 43.7 points per game at home

SMU is ranked # 81 in total defense

SMU is ranked #117 in pass defense

UAB is ranked #75 in total defense.

SMU, in last 4 games this year, the final scores were 33-28, 24-21, 31-21, 38-21

SMU, in last 4 games, is allowing an average of 389 yards per game.

UAB, in last 3 games this year, the final scores were 35-29, 33-34, 31-24

UAB, in last 3 games, is allowing an average of 425 yards per game.

 

UAB averages 3.8 ypr vs teams that allow 4.2 ypr

UAB completes 59.7% of passes that allow 58.8%

UAB gains 5.2 yards per play vs teams that allow 5.6

UAB allows 4.4 ypr vs teams that gain 3.8

UAB allows 61.1% pass completions vs teams that gain 58.4%

UAB allows 5.7 yards per play vs teams that gain 5.2

 

SMU averages 3.8 ypr vs teams that allow 4.1 ypr

SMU completes 65.3% of passes that allow 64.1%

SMU gains 5.3 yards per play vs teams that allow 5.5

SMU allows 2.6 ypr vs teams that gain 3.6

SMU allows 65.5% pass completions vs teams that gain 61.5%

SMU allows 5.2 yards per play vs teams that gain 5.2

 

Since the out of conference games have ended, both of these teams have settled into conference play and have been involved in a bunch of shootouts. Both teams have much worse than average pass defenses, with SMU owning one of the worst pass defenses in the nation. Meanwhile, UAB had trouble offensively early this year, but that was mostly against very good defenses of Oklahoma, Georgia, and a decent Miss St defense. Recently, their offense has perked up and should move the ball with success tonight through the air. And they will have to throw it, since SMU is pretty good against the run. SMU has a very good passing attack, and a capable running game. I like this game to follow the pattern of the last month or so, and a number of points to be scored in this game. I would have considered SMU as a side, but that pass defense scared me off. I don’t play many O/U in college, but I like this one tonight.

 

Good luck to all.

[The Shepherd 10]

Overall College YTD: 180-150-4; +36.92 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 81-61-1; +39.87 units

CFL: 19-13; +11.95 units

Tuesday

 

OVER UAB/SMU for 2 units (I have to wait on a line until tonight, since my book didn't post one yet as of this morning)

 

Key angles:

SMU QB Justin Willis is ranked #8 in nation in pass efficiency, with 19 TDs and 3 INTs

SMU averages 43.7 points per game at home

SMU is ranked # 81 in total defense

SMU is ranked #117 in pass defense

UAB is ranked #75 in total defense.

SMU, in last 4 games this year, the final scores were 33-28, 24-21, 31-21, 38-21

SMU, in last 4 games, is allowing an average of 389 yards per game.

UAB, in last 3 games this year, the final scores were 35-29, 33-34, 31-24

UAB, in last 3 games, is allowing an average of 425 yards per game.

 

UAB averages 3.8 ypr vs teams that allow 4.2 ypr

UAB completes 59.7% of passes that allow 58.8%

UAB gains 5.2 yards per play vs teams that allow 5.6

UAB allows 4.4 ypr vs teams that gain 3.8

UAB allows 61.1% pass completions vs teams that gain 58.4%

UAB allows 5.7 yards per play vs teams that gain 5.2

 

SMU averages 3.8 ypr vs teams that allow 4.1 ypr

SMU completes 65.3% of passes that allow 64.1%

SMU gains 5.3 yards per play vs teams that allow 5.5

SMU allows 2.6 ypr vs teams that gain 3.6

SMU allows 65.5% pass completions vs teams that gain 61.5%

SMU allows 5.2 yards per play vs teams that gain 5.2

 

Since the out of conference games have ended, both of these teams have settled into conference play and have been involved in a bunch of shootouts. Both teams have much worse than average pass defenses, with SMU owning one of the worst pass defenses in the nation. Meanwhile, UAB had trouble offensively early this year, but that was mostly against very good defenses of Oklahoma, Georgia, and a decent Miss St defense. Recently, their offense has perked up and should move the ball with success tonight through the air. And they will have to throw it, since SMU is pretty good against the run. SMU has a very good passing attack, and a capable running game. I like this game to follow the pattern of the last month or so, and a number of points to be scored in this game. I would have considered SMU as a side, but that pass defense scared me off. I don’t play many O/U in college, but I like this one tonight.

 

Good luck to all.

SMU won last year at UAB, 28-27. Common opponants doesn't help. Weather a possible factor?

I'm leaning toward SMU at home.

[dmaidlow73 0]

Yer Mom, Ditka, philly, get it going:

 

Alabama Birmingham vs. SMU

 

Alabama Birmingham +4.5

Moneyline: +165

Team Total: 21.5

 

SMU -4.5

Moneyline: -185

Team Total: 26.5

 

Over/Under 48

 

Make it a good one. That Over 39 is going to sting until kickoff tomorrow.

 

 

I like the Over here as well. The only things that have me worried are that a lot of the weekday games having been coming in Under and the fact that 8 of the last 11 UAB games have been Unders.

[phillybear 365]

Weather a possible factor?

 

Should be sunny/clear all day, light winds up to 9 mph.

[dmaidlow73 0]

SMU won last year at UAB, 28-27. Common opponants doesn't help. Weather a possible factor?

I'm leaning toward SMU at home.

 

 

Incidentally, the weather looks to be good for tonight's game. Right now it is 69 and sunny. No indications that rain will be moving in.

[The Shepherd 10]

Incidentally, the weather looks to be good for tonight's game. Right now it is 69 and sunny. No indications that rain will be moving in.

Good weather's good for the favorite and passing O. I did notice that E.Car beat SMU and UAB beat E. Car - that puts some ohms into my circuit.

[Swanny1981 0]

I'm in with:

 

SMU -5

2 Units

 

SMU has outscored teams 131-44 at home this year (3-0). Yes, they played some crap teams at home, but UAB doesn't scare me either.

 

Final Score: SMU 28, UAB 17

[cyclone24 1,836]

You guys like the over here at 49??

 

 

that seems like a lot of points for a couple crappy teams.

[cyclone24 1,836]

Hey will someone explain to me what a teaser is?

 

And why i would play one.

 

 

How is it different than a parlay??

 

 

Thanks from one degenrate to another.

[dain11279 932]

Hey will someone explain to me what a teaser is?

 

And why i would play one.

How is it different than a parlay??

Thanks from one degenrate to another.

 

A teaser is when you bet two different props and you can move the line in your favor by 6 points on each one. For example, say last night you wanted to tease minnesota and the under: my book had minnesota at +2 so u would move that to +8 and the under i had at 40.5 so that would be moved to 46(u lose the half point). You have to hit them both to win just like a parlay but if one of them pushes in a teaser you lose the whole bet. You dont have to do it with just one game either. You could tease two different teams in a teaser if u wish. Hope that clears things up.

[dmaidlow73 0]

Hey will someone explain to me what a teaser is?

 

And why i would play one.

How is it different than a parlay??

Thanks from one degenrate to another.

 

Teasers are sucker bets, plain and simple. Stay away. They will bite you in the end.

[GiantsRule 0]

A teaser is when you bet two different props and you can move the line in your favor by 6 points on each one. For example, say last night you wanted to tease minnesota and the under: my book had minnesota at +2 so u would move that to +8 and the under i had at 40.5 so that would be moved to 46(u lose the half point). You have to hit them both to win just like a parlay but if one of them pushes in a teaser you lose the whole bet. You dont have to do it with just one game either. You could tease two different teams in a teaser if u wish. Hope that clears things up.

 

What you just described may to be unique to your book (is it online or an offshore?)

 

For most online sportsbooks, you get six points on teasers and you don't "lose halves" (so in the above example, the under is 46.5).

 

Also, a push and a win in a teaser should bump the wager down to a straight wager - it shouldn't lose.

[thekris 0]

The way my guy does it is that you get 6 points both times (don't lose the half) but you have to win both. A push on either is a loss. The parlay is different where if you have a 3 team parlay and one game pushes, it goes to a 2 team parlay with the other games. Or a straight bet if one of the 2 is a push. But my guy charges 20% juice for teasers (10%) straight bet. Is that standard for teasers? I don't do them or know anyone that usually does so I didn't know if that was his way of scaring away people from doing teasers.

[Yer mom 2]

Yer Mom, Ditka, philly, get it going:

 

Alabama Birmingham vs. SMU

 

Alabama Birmingham +4.5

Moneyline: +165

Team Total: 21.5

 

SMU -4.5

Moneyline: -185

Team Total: 26.5

 

Over/Under 48

 

Make it a good one. That Over 39 is going to sting until kickoff tomorrow.

 

 

........ huh...wha...minnesota +2..I LIKE MINNESOTA +2!!!

 

Whoa, sorry.. I was having a nightmare. Im gonna bench myself today because of that horrific call yesterday. As for the rest of the week, here is what is looking good early:

 

Fresno State +25.5 - They're due to cover, actually played decent at LSU losing by 31, I think they can cover 25.5 at Boise State.

 

Northwestern +20 - Dont know if Drew Tate is playing this week, in not im all over NW.

 

Indiana/Minnesota over 56.5 - Heres Minnesotas chance to score some points, and Indianas offense became very legitimate last week against Michigan State.

 

Illinois +27 - Not that Ohio State cant destroy them, but I may take the +27 in Champaign.

 

HAWAII TEAM TOTAL OVER 46.5 (Play of the week) - Hawaii in their last 3 games have scored 68, 49, and 68 respectively and 2 of those were on the road against Fresno State and NMS...they will withouht a doubt shred Utah States D!!

 

Nevada -10 - I watched that Idaho game against HI and the Nevada game against NMS. Idaho looked like complete crap against a decent Hawaii D and Nevada has a pretty darn good D and good O.

 

Wisconsin -7 They should handle Penn State at home here.

 

SJSU/NMS OVER 62 - Should be fireworks a plenty in this one.

 

Of course, I will be looking for reasons from my fellow geniuses on which of these games may be a bad play...as always thanks for the insight and opinions...

 

Good Luck!!

[dain11279 932]

What you just described may to be unique to your book (is it online or an offshore?)

 

For most online sportsbooks, you get six points on teasers and you don't "lose halves" (so in the above example, the under is 46.5).

 

Also, a push and a win in a teaser should bump the wager down to a straight wager - it shouldn't lose.

 

Its an offshore...must be a little different. Damn, i could use that hook sometimes although i rarely play teasers due to the fact that someone a few posts up mentioned that they are a sucker bet.

[GobbleDog 822]

4-4 SMU 2006:

 

09/02 at #25 Texas Tech L 35-3

09/09 at N Texas L 24-6

09/16 Sam Houston W 45-14

09/23 Arkansas St W 55-9

09/30 at Tulane W 33-28

10/07 at UTEP L 24-21

10/14 Marshall W 31-21

10/21 at E Carolina L 38-21

10/31 UAB 7:30 PM

 

3-5 UAB 2006:

 

09/02 at #10 Oklahoma L 24-17

09/09 E Carolina W 17-12

09/16 at #10 Georgia L 34-0

09/23 Miss St L 16-10

09/30 Troy W 21-3

10/07 Memphis W 35-29

10/14 at Rice L 34-33

10/21 Marshall L 31-24

10/31 at SMU 7:30 PM

 

 

They look like equally crappy teams to me.

[Mack Daddy 0]

........ huh...wha...minnesota +2..I LIKE MINNESOTA +2!!!

 

Whoa, sorry.. I was having a nightmare. Im gonna bench myself today because of that horrific call yesterday.

 

Yer Mom. Not that it is any consolation to you, but I was also on that Minny pick last night. I'm glad that I am not the only one that was shell shocked after that game. It's bad knowing you had the wrong side after watching Brady's first drive, but the officiating in that game only made a bad call and attrocious call. It would've been nice to see how the game would've finished had the officials not handed the game to New England on a silver platter.... Ok, I'm getting worked up again. I'm laying low for a few days after getting burned the last few days. Need some winners this week!!!

[dmaidlow73 0]

4-4 SMU 2006:

 

09/02 at #25 Texas Tech L 35-3

09/09 at N Texas L 24-6

09/16 Sam Houston W 45-14

09/23 Arkansas St W 55-9

09/30 at Tulane W 33-28

10/07 at UTEP L 24-21

10/14 Marshall W 31-21

10/21 at E Carolina L 38-21

10/31 UAB 7:30 PM

 

3-5 UAB 2006:

 

09/02 at #10 Oklahoma L 24-17

09/09 E Carolina W 17-12

09/16 at #10 Georgia L 34-0

09/23 Miss St L 16-10

09/30 Troy W 21-3

10/07 Memphis W 35-29

10/14 at Rice L 34-33

10/21 Marshall L 31-24

10/31 at SMU 7:30 PM

They look like equally crappy teams to me.

 

True. But if you look at the stats they point in favor of SMU. They have a very good run D and should be able to make UAB one dimensional. This helps with the Over play, as the clock will be stopping on incomplete passes, etc.

 

My big play tonight will be SMU laying the points. I just feel that they are the better team. That, coupled with the fact that they are at home, are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games, and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 night games points to a SMU cover.

 

SMU -5 (3 units)

[Yer mom 2]

Yer Mom. Not that it is any consolation to you, but I was also on that Minny pick last night. I'm glad that I am not the only one that was shell shocked after that game. It's bad knowing you had the wrong side after watching Brady's first drive, but the officiating in that game only made a bad call and attrocious call. It would've been nice to see how the game would've finished had the officials not handed the game to New England on a silver platter.... Ok, I'm getting worked up again. I'm laying low for a few days after getting burned the last few days. Need some winners this week!!!

 

You said it buddy Bradys first drive was somewhat of a dagger but Johnsons seriously out of charachter Red Zone pick drove it in a little deeper. Then the officiating....oh god....I thought I was on candid camera. I looked around my living room for a hidden camera, what a joke. Gotta lay low until at least tomorrow....

 

Good Luck!!

[GobbleDog 822]

they are at home, are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games, and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 night games points to a SMU cover.

 

Good points. I'm with you, SMU -5 seems like a good play. Given their scores this season, they look like a lock to score at least 30 or more points. And home field advantage is always helpful. (it's also nice betting on home teams because you get to cheer along with the fans)

 

I'm down for $10.

[Hurricane Ditka 0]

SMU -5 for me.

 

I hate trick or treaters

[The Shepherd 10]

I'm in for 1 eunoch on SMU -5. I also locked up WVa +1.5.

[cyclone24 1,836]

Well i wont tell you to bet on something i dont feel good about....but im 4-0 betting against Iowa State.

 

 

This week id bet with them...

 

Iowa State +1 (Probably is at even right now)

 

Take ISU at home.....

[GiantsRule 0]

........ huh...wha...minnesota +2..I LIKE MINNESOTA +2!!!

 

Whoa, sorry.. I was having a nightmare. Im gonna bench myself today because of that horrific call yesterday. As for the rest of the week, here is what is looking good early:

 

Fresno State +25.5 - They're due to cover, actually played decent at LSU losing by 31, I think they can cover 25.5 at Boise State.

 

Northwestern +20 - Dont know if Drew Tate is playing this week, in not im all over NW.

 

Indiana/Minnesota over 56.5 - Heres Minnesotas chance to score some points, and Indianas offense became very legitimate last week against Michigan State.

 

Illinois +27 - Not that Ohio State cant destroy them, but I may take the +27 in Champaign.

 

HAWAII TEAM TOTAL OVER 46.5 (Play of the week) - Hawaii in their last 3 games have scored 68, 49, and 68 respectively and 2 of those were on the road against Fresno State and NMS...they will withouht a doubt shred Utah States D!!

 

Nevada -10 - I watched that Idaho game against HI and the Nevada game against NMS. Idaho looked like complete crap against a decent Hawaii D and Nevada has a pretty darn good D and good O.

 

Wisconsin -7 They should handle Penn State at home here.

 

SJSU/NMS OVER 62 - Should be fireworks a plenty in this one.

 

Of course, I will be looking for reasons from my fellow geniuses on which of these games may be a bad play...as always thanks for the insight and opinions...

 

Good Luck!!

 

I'll get these in tonight, particularly the Hawaii play (which will likely be close to 48 by the time I get home!)

[cyclone24 1,836]

WTF!!!???

 

 

Vipsports doesnt come out with the over/under until friday???

 

 

What a crock.

[4i's 0]

Consensus is 65% SMU as of right now, and for the only football game of the day, I will take UAB and get the points. UAB has been playing alot of close game. SMU probably will win, but only by a FG.

[cyclone24 1,836]

Yer mom:

 

 

Drew Tate is scheduled to start Saturday after having surgery a week ago on his hand.

 

 

Nwstrn is currently getting +20.

 

 

What do you think?

[Yer mom 2]

I'll get these in tonight, particularly the Hawaii play (which will likely be close to 48 by the time I get home!)

 

 

GR...you know my patterns, I dont REALLY like much until gameday unless indicated strongly. Having said that, I would only really consider the following right now:

 

Hawaii Team total over 46.5

Fresno State +25.5

 

Too much time until Saturday, just early week speculation right now.....

 

 

Good Luck!!

[Duffman 0]

Missed last weeks thread because of the horror that was the previous week. Tonight though..........

 

SMU -5 and I also like the over 49. 1 unit each.

 

Staying away from the WV/Louis game..................well, maybe not.

[American Chewy 98]

Well i wont tell you to bet on something i dont feel good about....but im 4-0 betting against Iowa State.

This week id bet with them...

 

Iowa State +1 (Probably is at even right now)

 

Take ISU at home.....

 

agreed...kansas a favorite on the road...LOL...total joke even if it is a point. we are talking about a coach/team that has won ONCE on the road in conf play in FIVE YEARS. and that was at rival missouri. PLUS, kansas is likely starting a true freshman in his first start. i dont care how bad iowa state is, i'm taking them to win.

[GiantsRule 0]

GR...you know my patterns, I dont REALLY like much until gameday unless indicated strongly. Having said that, I would only really consider the following right now:

 

Hawaii Team total over 46.5

Fresno State +25.5

 

Too much time until Saturday, just early week speculation right now.....

Good Luck!!

 

Understood. Got Hawaii team over for 46.5, but had to take Fresno St. at +24.5. Whatever edge you found, someone jumped on it.

 

I think this is our first opportunity for a large dog on a day where in-game live betting will be available. :drool:

[American Chewy 98]

2006 College betting record

119-102-5 +5.814 units

2+ plays 24-26-1 -5.915 units

 

1 unit each...these are piggyback plays from some cappers around the net i follow. GL everyone.

 

SMU -5 WINNER

SMU/UAB O49 LOSER

[Yer mom 2]

Understood. Got Hawaii team over for 46.5, but had to take Fresno St. at +24.5. Whatever edge you found, someone jumped on it.

 

I think this is our first opportunity for a large dog on a day where in-game live betting will be available. :drool:

 

 

24.5 is better than the 24 that I had to jump on it at WTF?? I wait a few hours and get a way worse line?? Now its down to 23.5.....somethings up.

 

Good Luck!!

[GiantsRule 0]

24.5 is better than the 24 that I had to jump on it at WTF?? I wait a few hours and get a way worse line?? Now its down to 23.5.....somethings up.

 

Good Luck!!

 

Don't feel bad. I should have mentioned I got this line from my Skybook account (they offer a free half point on sides as long as it doesn't buy on/off "3" or "7".)

[GiantsRule 0]

5 minutes gone, no scoring, and I'm already looking for ways to hedge.

 

Why the fvck don't these teams score during the week. I don't get it! :lol:

[phillybear 365]

I've noticed that they are stopping the clock on, oh, let's say, about every other first down. Fock.

[GiantsRule 0]

I've noticed that they are stopping the clock on, oh, let's say, about every other first down. Fock.

 

A scoreless first quarter? You've got to be fvcking kidding me! :lol:

 

Never again. I don't care if philly, Ditka, and Yer Mom put their life savings, homes, and families on a mid-week college over, I'm not taking it. Unreal. I'm convinced Hawaii would only score 10 points if they played any other day but Saturday.

[VaTerp 0]

Please be incomplete.

 

I took SMU -3 for the 1st half.