***Official college football wagering thread***

[JetsFan28 0]

3-0 so far this week after the Ohio cover.

 

What is everyone playing tonight? Is it just me or does Central Michigan giving 4 seem too easy? I'm likely to stay away.

 

Thinking about the under in the Kent State game though. Thoughts?

[GiantsRule 0]

3-0 so far this week after the Ohio cover.

 

What is everyone playing tonight? Is it just me or does Central Michigan giving 4 seem too easy? I'm likely to stay away.

 

Thinking about the under in the Kent State game though. Thoughts?

 

Noticed Eastern Michigan, as bad as they've been, have kept their recent losses pretty close. 11.5 seems like an awfully large line for a bad team like Kent State to cover. I'll wait for Ditka/Yer Mom to chime in, but I may take the points.

 

ETA: Game has an early start and I may not be home in time to put something in. Bought the half point and took Eastern Michigan +13 (-120).

 

Good luck to all!

 

[phillybear 366]

Overall College Football YTD: 222-191-4; +44.67 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 107-81; +58.42 units

CFL: 23-13; +20.95 units

NFL (Reset, last 4 weeks): 29-26-1; +1.15 units

 

Friday

 

Eastern Michigan (+12) for 1 unit WINNER

Central Michigan (-3.5) for 2 units LOSER!!

 

There is no doubt that Kent St has a very good defense, allowing 4.5 yards per play vs teams that gain 4.8, and they flexed their defensive muscle last week allowing only 182 of offense at Virginia Tech in a deceivingly close 23-0 game. However, Kent is not a good offensive team, gaining only 5.2 yards per play vs teams that allow 5.4 yards per play. Kent is banged up on offense, with QB Edelman questionable after missing last week, top RB Howard is out, and Kent has lost decidedly in their last 3 games, losing to Ohio 17-7, Buffalo 41-14, and V Tech 23-0. Kent was on a roll in the middle of the season, the front runner for winning their division in the MAC, but Ohio U just clinched the division last night, eliminating Kent from the race. So what went wrong? Well, while Kent was on a 5 game winning streak in the middle of the year, turns out that the wins were all against awful teams: Miami OH, Bowling Green, Akron, Temple, and Toledo. Awful, every last one of them. They ran into Ohio the next game, and lost. Then inexplicably got blown out at horrid Buffalo. Then got shutout at V Tech. Kent has averaged 7 pts scored per game the last 3, and that just is not good enough to lay double digits, with injuries on offense, in a potential let down spot after being eliminated from the MAC title race. Kent is 1-3 ATS last 4 as a double digit favorite. While Eastern Mich is not a good team, witness getting killed by Navy last week by 49-21, that was more likely a step up in class they just could not handle. In more competitive situations, in their last 5 games vs MAC teams, every game was decided by 7 pts or less: 7,3,4,3,6, including games vs good MAC teams of Central Mich, West Mich, and Ohio U. EMich offensive and defensive numbers look bad on the year, but they just simply hang around. E Mich has suffered through many offensive injuries, and QB shuffles, but QB Schmidtt last week gained 309 yards running and passing vs Navy. This line should not be this high. Somehow, someway, E Mich covers. Take the points.

 

Central Michigan is the best team in the MAC, and clinched their division last week. Motivation might be a concern, but C Mich coach was quoted as saying that Cent Mich will not let down, trying to set a C Mich record for wins in a season by getting their 8th victory. Letdown or not, it might not matter, as No Illinois is just brutal this year. Cent Mich is 8-1-1 ATS this year and 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games, and have been underrated for a couple of years now. QB LeFevor has tossed 14 TDs and 3 INTs the last 6 games, RB Sneed is banged up, but the backup came in last week, and started ripping off nice gains. This is very good offensive team, gaining 5.8 yards per play vs teams that gain 5.5, allowing only 4.9 ypp to teams that gain 5.0, and losing on the year only to Boston College, Michigan, and Kentucky, all teams that will win 7 or more games, all bowl teams. Otherwise, they swept all their MAC games thus far, winning by double digits in their last 4. No Illinois had a Heisman hopeful at the start of the year in RB Garrett Wolfe, but he has really struggled the last 4 games, gaining 66 yards rushing or less in every one of those games. Word is now coming out that Wolfe may have been playing with injuries, and this theory is gaining legs as Wolfe missed practices this week with a sore hamstring, a serious problem for a RB. He might still play tonight, but the problems on this team extend much further than his lack of production vs 8 and 9 man fronts. QB Horvath has lost his confidence, and has horribly regressed this year from previous successfully seasons. The defense is simply awful, allow 5.7 yards per play to teams that allow 5.0, ranked #96 in total defense, ranked #116 in pass defense. No Illinois has dropped three of their last 4 games, with the only win coming against horrible Temple. Last year, Central Mich lost to No Ill 31-28. Interesting to note, C Mich outgained No Ill 588 total yards to 439, and found a way to lose the game. C Mich got much better, No Ill got much worse. I don’t see any reason why Central Mich can’t win and cover this game, but the possible letdown is keeping me from making this a 3 unit game. I have bet on Central Mich every game this year, and will keep doing so. Lay the lumber.

 

Good luck to all.

[Hurricane Ditka 0]

4-2 last night. That makes 3 straight money making days which is putting last weekend behind me.

 

My 5 plays are in for Saturday. I am off to Pullman for the Washington/Washington State game right now.

 

Good Luck fellas!

[dmaidlow73 0]

4-2 last night. That makes 3 straight money making days which is putting last weekend behind me.

 

My 5 plays are in for Saturday. I am off to Pullman for the Washington/Washington State game right now.

 

Good Luck fellas!

 

HD:

Are you putting $ on UW/WSU game? I have heard that Ty has a near mutiny on his hands due to his handling of a couple of players. Personally, I think WSU's speed and talent will manhandle the Huskies.

[cyclone24 1,913]

Well fellas.....

 

Im still undefeated betting against my beloved Cyclones this year......and this ones a layup.

 

 

Mizzou covers the -13 easily. Really it should be so easy you'll almost feel bad taking the money. Ok....no you wont.....but seriously....this will be a blowout for Mizzou.

[art schlichter's bookie 0]

Gents:

 

Emptied the account and put it on Ohio State -6.5.

 

Troy Smith and Jim Tressel or Chad Henne and Lloyd Carr?

 

Not hard to call.

 

gl to all.

[Grind 0]

Gents:

 

Emptied the account and put it on Ohio State -6.5.

 

Troy Smith and Jim Tressel or Chad Henne and Lloyd Carr?

 

Not hard to call.

 

gl to all.

 

 

Not sure about this "analysis". Any statements about the game that exclude the Michigan defense isn't worth much.

[Sportsfan07 0]

Im really sad to say this but the great Bo Schembechler has passed away. I do not see Michigan losing this game as they have a huge emotional factor now and will go win this game for the great Bo

[Oredigger 0]

Here is what I am playing so far this weekend

 

Friday's Card

Central Mich -4.0 2 units

 

Saturday's Card:

Mich +7 1 unit (edit: I mistyped and posted +6.5, I have it at +7 as I think most people do).

Mich ML 1 unit

Cal ML 1 unit

Nevada -20 2 units

UCLA +5.5 1 unit

 

Cyclone has a point about his team - I may pick up Mizzou also

 

Goodluck all!

[teddytime 0]

Phlly what do you like this weekend??

[American Chewy 98]

College Football 2006

141-118-6 +12.66 units

2+ plays 28-27-1 +.525 units

 

C. Mich -3@-127 .5 unit LOSER

 

just a small play tonight, esp since i paid to get it down to 3. just trailing some good cappers tonight.

[EAwer 1]

philly tommorow games plz?

 

thanks

[GiantsRule 0]

Yer Mom:

 

Hawaii Team Total is 49. Is the over too obvious, or can San Diego St. actually stop them on Rainbow turf?

[phillybear 366]

Work in progress post, will add some more tonight. Full post tomorrow morning.

 

All for 2 units

Purdue (-12.5)

Miami Fla (-3)@-105

Boston College (-8)

Duke (+24.5)

Iowa St

Army (+29)

SMU (+6.5)

Auburn (-3)

Oregon

Wake Forest (Pk)

La Tech

Arizona St

 

Not sure how many units yet...

Minnesota

New Mexico

San Diego St

Idaho

South Florida

Utah

California

 

I might be crazy, but I am tempted to play everything for 2 units. I'll see how I feel tomorrow. Still digging around for other possible plays.

[phillybear 366]

E Mich covers 14-6.

 

Central Mich looks like crap, down 14-0.

[GBFAVRE4 0]

HELLO is CMichigan there?!?!?

 

WOW

[Hurricane Ditka 0]

Going with a different strategy this week to try and break my one week FUNK! Here are my plays this week. Since I am going to the Apple Cup (Wash/WashSt) I will not be around Friday or Saturday. Only 5 plays hoping to get back on track!

 

YTD 122-71-9 (59.65 units)

 

4 units per

Northern Illinois +3.5

Ohio State -6.5

Washington +9

Kansas State +2

USC -5.5

 

1. Northern Illinois is getting points at home where they are normally pretty good. Wolfe is probable and I expect him to post some decent stats.

 

2. I am just totally picking a side here in the biggest college game since USC/Texas last year. Ohio State is at home, has played and beaten Texas and I still have a bad taste in my mouth from Michigan/Ball State. I think the Buckeyes can post a double digit win.

 

3. This will be my third Apple Cup. From what I see records and trends mean nothing as does home field advantage. The crowd will be 50/50 with fans from each. WASU has been tough at home but I will take the 9 in a rivalry game.

 

4. K-State totally impressed me last week beating Texas and they have a respectable record this year. Another in state rivalry, I just think the wrong team is the favorite here.

 

5. If USC is going to make a case for getting back into the national title game this is the game they need to start with (before getting to Notre Dame). Cal losing to Arizona was a disaster and not the way they would want to play heading to USC.

Just got to our hotel in Pullman for the Washington/Washington State game. Walk in and find out we are staying at the same hotel as the Huskies. Just bumping my weekend plays and updating my record in this post. Not sure if I would of stuck with Ohio State based off the Coach Bo's passing. Too late and I don't hedge.

 

Grey Goose and Tonics tonight philly. Peace fellas! I am on the town after I find me a steak somewhere.

[American Chewy 98]

2006 College betting record

141-119-6 (54.2%) +12.02 units

2+ plays 28-27-1 +.525 units

 

This will be my smallest card of the year so far. Although I'll probably add a few more plays before I head to the Kansas State-Kansas game at 2:30pm.

 

Saturday

S. Carolina -14@-121 WINNER

Kansas State ML +118 .5 unit LOSER

Oregon -14 LOSER

Arizona State -4@-127 LOSER

 

GL everyone.

[GiantsRule 0]

Yer Mom: Stop the coy "I don't post until gametime" nonsense and get your motherfvcking picks up! Some of us need to get back our losses!

 

[markblaz 0]

Work in progress post, will add some more tonight. Full post tomorrow morning.

I might be crazy, but I am tempted to play everything for 2 units. I'll see how I feel tomorrow. Still digging around for other possible plays.

is that because you really like the board this week, or you just feel like gambling?

[phillybear 366]

is that because you really like the board this week, or you just feel like gambling?

 

A little of both. After following every team this year, I hope that I have a feel for all the teams at this point. And gambling a bit, since I typically take a bunch of 1 unit plays, but I like those 1 unit type of plays are better than normal.

 

My goal tomorrow will be to simply pick more winners than losers, and grind out a profit. I don't expect many to follow my multitude of plays, but that is my methodology, taking a bunch a games, and try to turn a profit in the aftermath.

 

Sorry if anyone is looking for a bunch of strong plays from me. But I will admit, I really like La Tech and San Diego St tomorrow, among others, and might bump up something to a 3 unit play or more, depending on the early results. Ebb and flow.

 

Also, this is the last full card of Saturday games this year, as the games next week are spread out for the week, huge card on Friday, and I am a bit of a gambler as it is.

 

I guess I didn't fully answer your question.

[needmoremoney 0]

i love ncaab. i think im going to give up nfl betting this year and just focus on ncaaf and ncaab. are we still posting plays here or another thread for non-ncaaf? i got lazy so i been keeping my plays posted on page 4 in this thread.

 

Work in progress post, will add some more tonight. Full post tomorrow morning.

 

All for 2 units

Purdue (-12.5)

Miami Fla (-3)@-105

Boston College (-8)

Duke (+24.5)

Iowa St

Army (+29)

SMU (+6.5)

Auburn (-3)

Oregon

Wake Forest (Pk)

La Tech

Arizona St

 

Not sure how many units yet...

Minnesota

New Mexico

San Diego St

Idaho

South Florida

Utah

California

 

I might be crazy, but I am tempted to play everything for 2 units. I'll see how I feel tomorrow. Still digging around for other possible plays.

 

well, between us two, at least one of us will win money on the games. I think i played the other side in most of your plays. not sure about you, but last week could have been a lot better so perhaps i should have followed you guys this week.

[GiantsRule 0]

Bump for Yer Mom.

 

Only plays I have until I hear from him:

 

Kansas State ML (+120)

Washington +9 (-115)

Washington ML (+290) (half unit)

USC -5.5

 

2-team Game of the Century parlay:

Michigan ML (+220)

Mich-OSU Under 42 (-140) - Pays ~9/2 odds

 

3-team team Overs parlay:

 

Wisconsin - team total Over 42 (-110) (home vs. Buffalo)

Navy - team total Over 43½ (-115) (home vs. Temple)

Baylor - team total Over 15½ (-115) (home vs. OK; shot in the dark based on YM's research about Baylor's scoring consistency all season; 8 straight games with 17 pts or more)

 

Very anxious to throw a large amount on Hawaii Team Over 49. They've scored at least 49 points in the past five straight and they're home again where the scoring never ends. But I need to hear from the guys who have pounded the Rainbow Warriors (wow, that didn't sound right) to say whether or not it's a strong bet.

 

Good luck to all!

 

[phillybear 366]

Overall College Football YTD: 223-192-4; +43.47 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 107-82; +57.22 units

CFL: 23-13; +20.95 units

NFL (Reset, last 4 weeks): 29-26-1; +1.15 units

 

You know the routine, blah, blah, blah. Might continue to upgrade smaller plays to 2 unit games.

 

Saturday Early

Purdue (-12.5) for 2 units LOSER

Miami Fla (-3)@-105 for 2 units LOSER

Boston College (-8) for 2 units WINNER

Minnesota (-3)@-105 for 2 units WINNER

Duke (+24.5) for 2 units LOSER

Iowa St (+13) for 2 units WINNER

Army (+29) for 2 units LOSER

SMU (+6.5) for 2 units WINNER

Auburn (-3) for 2 units WINNER

Oregon (-14) for 2 units LOSER

New Mexico (+26.5) for 2 units WINNER

San Diego St (+16.5) for 2 units LOSER

Idaho (+13) for 2 units LOSER

 

Early summary: 6-7; -3.3 units

 

Saturday Night

Wake Forest (Pk,-1.5) for 3 units LOSER

La Tech (+17.5) for 3 units LOSER

South Florida (+17.5) for 2 units LOSER

Utah (PK) for 3 units WINNER

California (+6) for 2 units LOSER

Arizona St (-6) for 2 units LOSER

 

Good luck to all. I'm going back to bed to sleep off a hangover.

[GiantsRule 0]

Overall College Football YTD: 223-192-4; +43.47 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 107-82; +57.22 units

CFL: 23-13; +20.95 units

NFL (Reset, last 4 weeks): 29-26-1; +1.15 units

 

You know the routine, blah, blah, blah. Might continue to upgrade smaller plays to 2 unit games.

 

Saturday Early

Purdue (-12.5) for 2 units

Miami Fla (-3)@-105 for 2 units

Boston College (-8) for 2 units

Minnesota (3)@-105 for 2 units

Duke (+24.5) for 2 units

Iowa St +13 for 2 units

Army (+29) for 2 units

SMU (+6.5) for 2 units

Auburn (-3) for 2 units

Oregon for 2 units

New Mexico

San Diego St

Idaho

 

Saturday Night

Wake Forest (Pk) for 2 units

La Tech for 2 units

South Florida

Utah

California

Arizona St for 2 units

 

Good luck to all. I'm going back to bed to sleep off a hangover.

 

philly: Two questions before you crash

 

1. You see Hawaii surpassing 50 points tonight?

2. How could you possibly take Army and the points (and just 29 points at that) against Notre Dame when they got MURDERED by a far lesser Air Force team two weeks ago?

[thekris 0]

Only going with a few so far:

 

Mich St. +18

Auburn -3 (2 units)

Rutgers -6.5

 

Good Luck Everyone. Gotta catch a nap before gametime.

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

Gents:

 

Emptied the account and put it on Ohio State -6.5.

 

Troy Smith and Jim Tressel or Chad Henne and Lloyd Carr?

 

Not hard to call.

 

gl to all.

 

 

THis seems like the call to make. I just haven't pulled the trigger yet.

[phillybear 366]

philly: Two questions before you crash

 

1. You see Hawaii surpassing 50 points tonight?

2. How could you possibly take Army and the points (and just 29 points at that) against Notre Dame when they got MURDERED by a far lesser Air Force team two weeks ago?

 

I am avoiding the Hawaii game, as I have bet on Hawaii and San Jose St all year, and hate to go against either one. Hawaii has gone over 60 in 4 of the last 5, and might do it again, but San Jose St has a decent running game and balanced offense overall, and might be able to chew clock. They just held Boise St to 23 points. So, I am not sure. Hawaii has ties to D ickTomey, the coach at San Jose St, and so won't be motivated to run up the score.

 

Notre Dame does not cover large spreads, as they usually don't run up the score. They haven't covered a spread this large under Charlie Weiss, or any spread over 20, 0-4 ATS when favored by 21+, because their defense is not good, as crummy teams like Stanford and North Carolina have lost by less than 20 vs Notre Dame this year. Army has covered the 20+ spreads this year, like the game vs Tex A&M.

 

Good luck.

[GiantsRule 0]

I am avoiding the Hawaii game, as I have bet on Hawaii and San Jose St all year, and hate to go against either one. Hawaii has gone over 60 in 4 of the last 5, and might do it again, but San Jose St has a decent running game and balanced offense overall, and might be able to chew clock. They just held Boise St to 23 points. So, I am not sure. Hawaii has ties to D ickTomey, the coach at San Jose St, and so won't be motivated to run up the score.

 

Notre Dame does not cover large spreads, as they usually don't run up the score. They haven't covered a spread this large under Charlie Weiss, or any spread over 20, 0-4 ATS when favored by 21+, because their defense is not good, as crummy teams like Stanford and North Carolina have lost by less than 20 vs Notre Dame this year. Army has covered the 20+ spreads this year, like the game vs Tex A&M.

 

Good luck.

 

Understood, but I think you're underestimating just how BAD Army is. I don't have this game so I hope you cover.

 

Thanks for input on Hawaii. The only one that has followed them as much as you is Yer Mom so I'll see what he says before making a final decision. Good luck today!

[beefy1 0]

Hey philly, you have San Diego St. as a 1 unit play but you said earlier that you really liked 'em. Is this a TBA upgrade closer to game time? I have to put in all my early games before noon, that's why I was curious.

 

 

BTW, I wish they would televise the Hawaii games nationally because I need to watch college football til 3am. especially the number 1 offense in the country.

[chiz3 1]

Not a pretty board today. Hope to have a better weekend than last week.

 

SC-16

Mizzou-13 1/2

E.Car. 2 1/2

 

Sure to add more.

[dmaidlow73 0]

Understood, but I think you're underestimating just how BAD Army is. I don't have this game so I hope you cover.

 

Thanks for input on Hawaii. The only one that has followed them as much as you is Yer Mom so I'll see what he says before making a final decision. Good luck today!

 

The reason I am on Army is because of one reason. Senior Day. Yes, I think the Irish will get up big, but Charlie hasn't won many, if any, games by more than 28, and today won't be the day. After the Irish build a huge lead he will be putting in little used seniors becuase it is their last home game. I am looking for a back door cover for Army. Hopefully!

[VaTerp 0]

After gettin back into this after not gambling on college football since the 03' season, I have been taken to the woodshed the last few weeks. But FWIW . . .

 

 

I really like 2 of the 12:00 ACC matchups.

 

MD +8 @BC-

 

Yes, Im a MD alum but I usually avoid them unless I really like the line. 1-0 with them this year as I took the 20 pts on the road at Clemson and they won outright. After doing some research this BC team is a little stronger than I thought on both sides of the ball. But MD is a good football team. The O-line is very good and Hollenbach has developed as a QB this year. Defensively, they are solid and Josh Wilson is one of the best overall CB's in college football. I think BC wins at home but MD keeps it within a TD.

 

Mia, FL -3 @ UVA-

 

Mia has been terrible this year but I am not a fan of Al Groh in general and this UVA team is younger and less talented than the one's they have had the last few years. Im probably wrong but I think this Mia team has to play up to its talent level at least once this year. Canes win this one by 10 points plus.

 

My only 2 plays so far today. I like Va Tech in a pick em at Wake at 7. That would mean taking 3 road teams in the ACC. But, fock it. Other plays I like are

 

Mich St +18

Auburn -3

 

Will also look at some hoops. As for the MICH/OSU game I am inclined to take MICH and the points but Troy Smith will be the best player on the field and the game is in Columbus. I should prolly stay away but I know I wont be able to. The under 42 may be the play here.

 

GL to all. Lets have fun and make some $$$$$$$$$$$$ today!

[The Shepherd 10]

Anybody seen Dr Bob's picks???

[iceblumist610 0]

Understood, but I think you're underestimating just how BAD Army is. I don't have this game so I hope you cover.

 

Thanks for input on Hawaii. The only one that has followed them as much as you is Yer Mom so I'll see what he says before making a final decision. Good luck today!

 

 

GiantsRule, did you watch the Army/AirForce game? Anyone would get murdered when they turn the ball over six times. How many defensive scores did Air Force get? Three? I admit, I turned off the game after three TDs because my Dad's a USMA grad so I've always been a bit of an Army fan, but from what I saw, neither team was moving the ball better than the other. I think that score is highly misleading. If they turn the ball over a million times again today, it won't even be close, but if they hold onto it (and I'm not sure how well ND's D forces turnovers), I would expect them to stay within 29 pretty easily.

 

What I wanted to ask Philly before bed was...how can you be on Purdue AND Idaho? Indiana and Idaho seem like they're in the exact same situation. Schools named for states that begin with "I." Both opened as 10 point underdogs. Both got killed last week against very good teams. Both are playing opponents that are coming off a win over a bad team where the other team lost it (turnovers) more than they won it. Doesn't really matter, as I'm on both the "I" schools already, but Purdue seemed like an interesting choice. Maybe it had something to do with DocBob being on them.

[beefy1 0]

Anybody seen Dr Bob's picks???

I'm sure philly did, he usually compares his picks w/ Dr. Bob. They usually agree.

[needmoremoney 0]

so tempted to bet more on connecticut @ syracuse.... but trying to stop putting the farm on any team after last week's debacle with California.

[The Shepherd 10]

so tempted to bet more on connecticut @ syracuse.... but trying to stop putting the farm on any team after last week's debacle with California.

needmo, are you really up on UConn, on the road?

 

I need Dr. Bob - my idol, me betting budah

[Duffman 0]

I'm tired of betting, in other words, tired of losing. I wish everyone luck and hope you get some serious wins. I give up.