**Official College Bowl Games Betting Thread**

[markblaz 0]

its bowl season, games every night now. lets get it started

[dmaidlow73 0]

I personally like TCU to roll NIU. Yes, we all know that Garret Wolfe is a hell of a RB, but he has been shut down several times this year. The teams that held him under 100 yards were Temple, Iowa, Western Michigan, and Toledo. What do all of these defenses have in common? None of them are anywhere near as good against the run as TCU is. TCU gives up only 2.4 yards per rush, which is one of the best in the nation. I think the Frogs will be able to stack the box and make NIU throw, which doesn't necessarily bode well for the Huskies. There is a distinct possibility that their starting QB (Horvath) will be out and the backup (Nicholson) will be playing. That could be very big.

 

On offense I like the Horned Frogs' balanced attack. In this game I see them running the ball very effectively. Both of their RBs are solid (Hobbs and Brown) and finally healthy. If the Huskies sell out to stop the run I see Ballard having a nice game.

 

TCU has only lost two games this year, and those losses were to solid bowl teams (BYU and Utah). I just think they are too strong for the Huskies.

 

TCU are 8-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

TCU are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall.

 

Pick

TCU 34 NIU 17

 

Lay the points.

[Hurricane Ditka 0]

[Dragan187 7]

I took TCU as well.

 

 

20 dollars for a bowl sheet here at work (with the spreads) SHOW ME DA MONEY!!!!!

[Lizard1 0]

I am liking TCU as well but am leary of something going on as the line continues to drop from 13 to 12 despite 65% of the action going on TCU?!?

[markblaz 0]

i like tcu at first glance, strong run d against a run first n ill team. gotta dig deeper though

[dmaidlow73 0]

I am liking TCU as well but am leary of something going on as the line continues to drop from 13 to 12 despite 65% of the action going on TCU?!?

I took TCU but am worried a bit now. The line movement indicates that the sharp money is on NIU. Oh well, it's too late for me to change.

[GiantsRule 0]

 

Oh, c'mon! You know you want to share your picks!

 

Yer Mom: You coming back?!?

[Big Blue 06 195]

I love TCU here, but the line movement makes me leary. I'll probably still take em, but maybe not as heavily.

[dain11279 927]

Bump

[GiantsRule 0]

Anyone know the team total for TCU tonight?

[American Chewy 98]

the line originally opened at 10 or 11 depending on where you look. so line movement is consistent with the action.

[PackYourNut 47]

Gotto go with the double digit dog in this game... In fact, this is a 4 or 5 unit play IMO...

[GiantsRule 0]

the line originally opened at 10 or 11 depending on where you look. so line movement is consistent with the action.

 

According to OGAR, the underdog is the bet here since the line is more than 4. Need a little more reassurance before I bite though.

 

That's why I'm asking about the TCU team over. Many expect them to dominate. I'd like to take them to score the amount of points Vegas expects from them.

[American Chewy 98]

2006 College betting record

154-129-6 (54.4%) +14.72 units

2+ plays 30-28-1 +1.265 units

 

TCU -12 .5 unit

[JT 137]

I closed out the college season red hot. Hopefully it carries over into the bowl games.

 

NIU just doesn't matchup well with TCU. Wolfe has to be successful for No Ill to have a chance, and the Frogs are one of the top 5 run defenses in the country. NIU hasn't shown the ability to throw the ball consistently, while Ballard of TCU has been one of the hottest QB's in the country over the last half of the season. NIU's pass defense ranks 104th in the NCAA. As mentioned earlier, TCU has a couple more than capable RB; like Wolfe, they're as healthy as they've been all season.

 

TCU has won 20 of their last 22 games. Their losses came early (Sept) in back-to-back games. BYU flat beat them, but we went on to see that the Cougars are a pretty good football team. The Frogs killed themselves with turnovers the next week in a loss to Utah.

 

Emotion can play a big part in bowl games, and David sees it as a chance to gain some respect. This is probably the biggest game in NIU history. But TCU is still trying to become a player on the national scene, and I don't think they'll take this game lightly. They'll sell out to stop the run, NIU will be unable to consistently move the ball through the air, and the better team will win this one comfortably.

 

Lay the points.

 

Good luck to all!

[GobbleDog 816]

I don't know anything about either of these teams. Sounds like everyone is taking TCU. I guess I'll jump on the bandwagon.

 

Go Frogs!

[Big Blue 06 195]

Well, let's start off the bowl season.

 

I'm going TCU for 1 unit.

[Lionsjunkie 1]

NIU plus the points

 

Head over here http://www.phoenixsports.com/vb/forumdisplay.php?f=3 for the College Bowl season and some good insight and FREE picks.

 

 

Tell em Lionsjunkie sent you

 

 

Reasons and info like this provided by forum members.

 

Found the trend I was looking for. Quite simple.

 

Play AGAINST a bowl favorite of 8.5 or more if the game is played before New Years Day.

 

Record is 41-15-1

Last Year 5-0

Therefore, tonights play would be on Northern Illinois +12.5

[brzrboy 0]

Philly, any thoughts on tonight's game?

[ROCKET 0]

Reluctantly putting a small wager on TCU. I hate going with the squares but I'm not over-thinking this and am simply going with the much superior team on paper.

[ROCKET 0]

TCU's defense is as good as advertised. Barring turnovers this will be a rout.

[GiantsRule 0]

I think TCU winning by 3 cashes all of you TCU backers. Therefore:

 

2H N. Illinois ML (+310)

 

Also hedging half my TCU team over 28.5 wager with 2H Under 13.5 (+105). So in a perfect world, TCU scores exactly 13 points in the 2nd half. An a more perfect world, TCU scores exactly 13 and N. Illinois scores 14!

 

Good luck to all!

 

[ROCKET 0]

I think TCU winning by 3 cashes all of you TCU backers. Therefore:

 

2H N. Illinois ML (+310)

 

Also hedging half my TCU team over 28.5 wager with 2H Under 13.5 (+105). So in a perfect world, TCU scores exactly 13 points in the 2nd half. An a more perfect world, TCU scores exactly 13 and N. Illinois scores 14!

 

Good luck to all!

 

 

 

 

You're betting on NIU to stay close the second half after seeing them get dominated on all sides of the ball the first half?

[American Chewy 98]

2006 College betting record

154-129-6 (54.4%) +14.72 units

2+ plays 30-28-1 +1.265 units

 

TCU -12 .5 unit WINNER

 

Easy win tonight fellas, probably should have gone a full unit on that one but a win is a win.

 

No feel for BYU-Oreg on Thursday, will likely pass on that one.

[GiantsRule 0]

You're betting on NIU to stay close the second half after seeing them get dominated on all sides of the ball the first half?

 

I've seen crazier stuff happen...and I got swayed by more than 3:1 odds.

 

I'm actually less pissed about losing that play than I am for hedging my TCU team Over 28.5 bet. After having an early PAT blocked, failing to convert a 4th and 1 in the 2nd quarter, and settling for a FG to close out the 2nd half, I wasn't 100% confident that TCU could put another 13 points on the board in the 2nd half. Couple that with GREED when I figured out that exactly 13 points (one TD + PAT and 2 FGs) would cash both sides, and I shot myself in the foot on that one.

 

Still came out ahead on the night but could have done much better. I'll have to show more confidence in my plays in the upcoming games.

 

Will definitely be hitting the BYU team over Thursday night; just trying to find a good number with a decent payoff.

[art schlichter's bookie 0]

I dont normally bet on Mormons but BYU is tempting because of their QB play.

 

Oregon hasn't really settled on a QB and BYU has Beck.

 

I heard BYU has injuries to a thin DB corps...does anyone know if the two kids that are questionable are playing? One is a starter and one is the nickel, I believe.

 

BYU lean.

[OGAR 0]

According to OGAR, the underdog is the bet here since the line is more than 4. Need a little more reassurance before I bite though.

 

That's why I'm asking about the TCU team over. Many expect them to dominate. I'd like to take them to score the amount of points Vegas expects from them.

 

 

Oops!!!

 

Guess thats why its called gambling.

 

 

If it helps, I lost as well.

[GiantsRule 0]

BYU Team Over 32 (-115) - What does everyone think?

 

BYU went over 32 points 8 times this season while Oregon allowed 32 points or more about 6-7 games. It's at a neutral site (Las Vegas) but, if you think about, the Mormons could be thrown off their game by being thrust into the middle of sin city.

 

I'm also considering Minnesota-Green Bay Over 7 for the first quarter tonight. I'll see as we get closer to game time(s).

[OGAR 0]

I like Farve is maybe his final game at Lamblow.

 

 

BYU has been my Utah from a couple years ago. Covering almost every game. Oregon is a big school. Should be a great game but I believe it will play more like a home game for BYU. If they can stop Oregon a few times, I see BYU covering.

 

Plus, It fits into my formula. -4 take the Fav.

 

GL. Check back later.

[phillybear 364]

I passed on the first game. And I am not sure if I playing this game. I guess I am trying to be more selective this year, and some of this early games are giving me the creeps.

 

However, I did like TCU, and I should have played them.

[American Chewy 98]

i was hoping you'd be on tcu philly...I woulda probably put more on it!! hehe its all good though.

 

some interesting line moves in these early games, thats for sure. not surprisingly the public likes byu tonight as they've been a monster covering machine all year. yet this line has dropped like a rock...

 

Dr. Bob likes Oregon +3.5 for a 3 star play if anyone cares.

 

like i said earlier i'm laying off this game, i probably lean byu but too many factors are scaring me away.

 

The next few games look much more promising.

[PackYourNut 47]

NIU looked like crap and the playing calling was terrible as well ... 4 unit loser for me...

 

I like Oregon and the over tonight... OR has played a MUCH tougher schedule then BYU and they can score on anyone.

 

For what its worth...

[GiantsRule 0]

I passed on the first game. And I am not sure if I playing this game. I guess I am trying to be more selective this year, and some of this early games are giving me the creeps.

 

However, I did like TCU, and I should have played them.

 

That hindsight is a b!tch, eh?

[cribdog 0]

I hit on TCU for a unit, and am leaning to the Mormons for .5 unit. I can't get over the fact that their conference is sooooo much weaker than the Pac 10. I usually hate BYU, so betting on them does not come easy, another reason only .5 units.

[BuschWack 56]

BYU Team Over 32 (-115) - What does everyone think?

 

BYU went over 32 points 8 times this season while Oregon allowed 32 points or more about 6-7 games. It's at a neutral site (Las Vegas) but, if you think about, the Mormons could be thrown off their game by being thrust into the middle of sin city.

 

I'm also considering Minnesota-Green Bay Over 7 for the first quarter tonight. I'll see as we get closer to game time(s).

For what it's worth, I lived in Vegas for 8 years and came to find out that a relatively high % of the population in Vegas is Mormon. Mormon churches everywhere off the strip and downtown of course. Give the home field to BYU. As for being thrown off their game, Bronco has the Cougars extremely focused. He's crazy that way. I don't know if BYU will cover, but I like the BYU Team Over of 32.

[JT 137]

I closed out the college season red hot. Hopefully it carries over into the bowl games.

 

NIU just doesn't matchup well with TCU. Wolfe has to be successful for No Ill to have a chance, and the Frogs are one of the top 5 run defenses in the country. NIU hasn't shown the ability to throw the ball consistently, while Ballard of TCU has been one of the hottest QB's in the country over the last half of the season. NIU's pass defense ranks 104th in the NCAA. As mentioned earlier, TCU has a couple more than capable RB; like Wolfe, they're as healthy as they've been all season.

 

TCU has won 20 of their last 22 games. Their losses came early (Sept) in back-to-back games. BYU flat beat them, but we went on to see that the Cougars are a pretty good football team. The Frogs killed themselves with turnovers the next week in a loss to Utah.

 

Emotion can play a big part in bowl games, and David sees it as a chance to gain some respect. This is probably the biggest game in NIU history. But TCU is still trying to become a player on the national scene, and I don't think they'll take this game lightly. They'll sell out to stop the run, NIU will be unable to consistently move the ball through the air, and the better team will win this one comfortably.

 

Lay the points.

 

Good luck to all!

 

Bowl games: 1-0

 

College last 4 weeks: 20-8

 

Tonight's Las Vegas Bowl pits two teams that finished out the season going in different directions. BYU comes into the post season with 9 straight wins, including victories over bowl teams Tulsa, New Mexico, Utah, and @TCU. Oregon lost 4 of it's last 6, with the wins coming at home over Portland St and a reeling Washington.

 

The Ducks went a respectable 3-3 vs bowl teams this year, but that mark is a bit deceiving. One of those wins was the officials early Christmas gift against Oklahoma; another was against UCLA in the 1st start for Bruins QB Cowan (2 INT at crucial points in the game). Their other bowl-caliber win was @ Az St. Losses to bowl teams came at the hands of Cal, USC and rival Oregon St.

 

Led by QB John Beck, the Cougars are an offensive machine, ranking 5th in the nation. Oregon has been unsettled at the QB spot, with both Dixon and Leaf taking turns (it appears Dixon gets the starting nod tonight). Both have had their moments, positive and negative. The real strength of the Oregon offense is RB Stewart and WR Jaison Williams, who led the Pac 10 in receptions despite missing the Arizona game. If Dixon or Leaf can get him the ball, he could have a field day vs a BYU secondary depleted by injury.

 

Though Oregon outranks BYU in Total D (30th - 51st), BYU has a HUGE edge in Scoring D (16th - 84th), allowing just over 15 ppg. Despite their wide open offense, the Cougars have done a great job protecting the ball, ranking 4th nationally in turnover margin. Oregon, showing it's inconsistency at QB, is 107th.

 

The teams that gave BYU trouble were those with solid, veteran QB like BC's Matt Ryan and Tulsa's Paul Smith (one of the best QB in the country nobody knows much about). Even with that, BYU went 2 OT before losing at BC and beat Tulsa. Oregon has to hope that the extra practice time for Dixon helps him to return to his early season form, and not the unsure player that threw 3 INT in two different games.

 

At some point in just about every bowl write up, I mention emotion. It looks like the sparks have started early in this one, as the two teams nearly rumbled at a promotional function the other day. Oregon has a chance to salvage a season gone wrong. BYU has a chance to show the nation what a solid team they are, and erase the stigma of losing their last 4 bowl games.

 

A couple things spook me about this one. BYU has significant injuries in their secondary; both starting CB are questionable last I checked. Also, their former coach (Crowton) is on the Oregon staff. Then there's the recent bowl history, and their poor overall record vs the Pac 10. But I like veteran QB's in bowl matchups, and the Oregon run defense has been pushed around at times this year, one of the reasons their scoring defense stats are so bad. When BYU gets the ground game going (and they have 2 solid RB), they're hard to beat. The crowd should be in BYU's favor, despite the sinful setting. BYU is 13-3-1 in their last 17 games ATS on grass.

 

The Ducks offense should be able to keep this interesting, but I like BYU's overall experience. They're not just an offense, with solid defense and special teams. I look for them to capitalize on a turnover or two, and win this one by 7-10 pts.

 

I'm laying the 4 pts. (ETA: I just got this game at BYU -3, making it an even better looking pick.)

 

Good luck to all!

[Big Blue 06 195]

1-0 in bowls so far, +1 Unit.

 

Personally, I like Oregon to win tonight. However, I don't like it enough to bet on it.

 

What I am taking is:

 

BYU/Oregon Over 63 for 2 units. I can see A LOT of points tonight.

 

Also, I'm taking Green BAY for 2 units and laying the points. Just a side note.

 

Good luck gents and I'll see you back here tomorrow.

[art schlichter's bookie 0]

Taking BYU for two units.

Taking over 63 for one unit.

 

gl to all

[phillybear 364]

Overall College YTD: 256-224-6; +42.02 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 129-105-2; +53.12 units

College bowls: 0-0

 

Thursday

 

BYU (-3.5) for 3 units WINNER!!!!!

 

BYU's QB Beck was ranked #2 in the nation in QB efficiency, behind only Colt Brennan of Hawaii. Beck is a serious NFL prospect, the way he looks off receivers. He is very poised, very accurate, and is the star player in this game. Oregon counters with two struggling QBs in a rotation. While Oregon is certainly capable of running the ball with success, I question their defense being able to slow down, much less stop the excellent BYU offense. BYU defensive stats are a bit misleading, since they played so much prevent defense after building up big leads in so many of their games.

 

BYU went 4-2 SU vs bowl eligible teams, including an overtime loss at BC, in a game they clearly were the better team. BYU went 9-3 ATS, 7-2 ATS as a favorite this year. BYU has blown out every team since mid September, except for their game at Utah, a huge rivalry game.

 

Oregon went 3-5 SU vs bowl eligible teams. Oregon is 2-4 SU last 6 games, and the only wins were over Portland St (Div 1-AA) and an injury riddled Washington team.

 

Lay the lumber. Good luck to all.