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***Official Week #2 NFL Football Gambling Thread***

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Lines as of 9/12/07 from Pinnacle Sports.

 

Sunday:

 

Buffalo vs Pittsburgh -10 (37)

Cincinnati -6.5 vs Cleveland (41.5)

Indianapolis -7 vs Tennessee (45.5)

Houston vs Carolina -6.5 (39)

San Francisco vs St Louis -3.5 (44)

Green Bay vs New York Giants -1 (37.5)

Atlanta vs Jacksonville -10.5 (34.5)

New Orleans -3.5 vs Tampa Bay (42)

Minnesota vs Detroit -3 (42.5)

Dallas -3.5 vs Miami (40.5)

Seattle -3 vs Arizona (42)

New York Jets vs Baltimore -10.5 (33.5)

Oakland vs Denver -10 (39)

Kansas City vs Chicago -12 (34.5)

San Diego vs New England -3.5 (46)

 

Monday:

 

Washington vs Philadelphia -6.5 (38.5)

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NFL: 7-8-1 +.21 units

 

Cincinnati -6.5 1 unit to win .91 units

Indianapolis -7 1 unit to win .98 units

New Orleans -3.5 1 unit to win .962 units

St Louis -3 1 unit to win 1 unit

Seattle -3 1 unit to win 1.04 units

Miami ML 1 unit to win 1.79 units

Miami +3.5 1 unit to win .918 units

New York Jets ML 1 unit to win 4.15 units

New York Jets +9.5 1 unit to win .944 units

San Diego ML 1 unit to win 1.75 units

San Diego +3.5 1 unit to win .962 units

 

Teaser #1: 1 unit to win 2.6 units

 

CIN -1

IND -1

NO +2

SEA +3

 

Parlay #1: 1 unit to win 3.148 units

 

CIN ML

IND ML

NO ML

SEA ML

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Getting in an instant gratification parlay early as the lines will likely change. Numbers are pretty low this time around due to the perceived defense. Honestly, I like a lot of the 4 p.m. games even better, but some of the lines (particularly NYJ-Balt) aren't up yet so I'll just put it in sometime Sunday:

 

3-team first half parlay:

 

Bills/Steelers Under 18 1H

Texans/Panthers Under 19.5 1H

Falcons/Jax Under 17.5 1H

 

Good luck to all and Happy New Year to my Jewish brethren (if any)!

 

:thumbsup:

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cincy giving 6.5

 

and both dallas and New Orleans giving 3.5 seem like pretty safe bets :thumbsup:

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NFL: 7-81

 

"7-81" ??? How can you possibly be 7-81? Is that your lifetime NFL predictions? Even so, noone could miss that many. It's gotta be a typo, right? :ninja:

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Getting in an instant gratification parlay early as the lines will likely change. Numbers are pretty low this time around due to the perceived defense. Honestly, I like a lot of the 4 p.m. games even better, but some of the lines (particularly NYJ-Balt) aren't up yet so I'll just put it in sometime Sunday:

 

3-team first half parlay:

 

Bills/Steelers Under 18 1H

Texans/Panthers Under 19.5 1H

Falcons/Jax Under 17.5 1H

 

Good luck to all and Happy New Year to my Jewish brethren (if any)!

 

:rolleyes:

 

Parlays are for people that don't like money.

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"7-81" ??? How can you possibly be 7-81? Is that your lifetime NFL predictions? Even so, noone could miss that many. It's gotta be a typo, right? :banana:

 

7-8-1 :rolleyes:

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7-8-1 :unsure:

 

:music_guitarred:

 

Duh... I spose I should have realized that. You know, ya don't have to pick EVERY game. If ya nailed all of your locks of the week, that's all that's really important.

 

 

BTW - I went 0-3 with my locks last week, so I'm finished prognosticating. I'm just taking up Mike's bandwidth. :(

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:lol:

 

Duh... I spose I should have realized that. You know, ya don't have to pick EVERY game. If ya nailed all of your locks of the week, that's all that's really important.

BTW - I went 0-3 with my locks last week, so I'm finished prognosticating. I'm just taking up Mike's bandwidth. :(

 

Its all in fun. I am not trying to get rich here. Just making the games more interesting to watch. I have no doubt I will lose money over the course of the year but its just the cost of entertainment. No different then paying $10 to see a movie or spending $500 on hookers and blow :doublethumbsup:

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Max Power Premonitions - NFL Week #2

Road Warrior Special

 

#1 Green Bay Packers +2.5 (-105) @ NY Giants

Green Bay coming off a big win at home Vs Philly last week traveling to the East via Cloud 9, will stay high as they beat up on a broken down NY Giants squad. This game will remain very close throughout the first half, as NYG attempt to establish the running game and play Time of Possession. However, in the 2nd half GB should be able to exploit the NYG secondary for 1 or 2 TD's, no one should expect Big Boy J. Lorenzen to be able to mount a comeback. (Edit: Seems like Eli might play, which turns this into a good play from a great play - The MPP remains @ the score below however)

Green Bay 20 - NY Giants 13

___________________________________________________

 

#2 Dallas Cowboys -3.5 (-115) @ Miami Dolpins

Dallas took a big win Vs rival NYG last week on Monday Night. Miami couldn't even bring one home Vs a weak WAS Redskins team. Warning: Careful of the Home Dog - Not this week guys!!!! Take the Road Favorite and cherish the low point spread. Dallas will Roll in this one. MBIII should have a big game, and don't count out Romo, as he should get his as well. 2 TD's for Romo and one for MBIII.

Dallas 27 - Miami 17

___________________________________________________

 

#3 New Orleans Saints -3 (-135) @ Tampa Bay Buc's

New Orleans looked lost last week in a Thursday Night NFL opener Vs the Defending Champs Indy. But that score and game just helps you cash in this week, by giving this game an artificially low / close line. Take New Orleans as they will crush the Buc's. Gruden MAY potentially be out the Tampa Door by week 10 this year. He just doesn't have it and won't get the wins the TB ownership is looking for. TB has a solid Def, but that won't hold the Saints down in the 2nd Half of this game. The Saints go marching and marching and marching come Q3 of this one.....This is the game to double or even triple your standard wager!!!

New Orleans 31 - Tampa Bay 20

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Max Power Premonitions - NFL Week #2

Road Warrior Special

 

Agreed, Cowboys and Saints should cover. They aren't my favorite picks this week, but if I had to bet those games I'd take Cowboys and Saints too.

 

However, the Green Bay pick makes me nervous. NFL road wins are tough for any team, let alone the Packers who aren't the greatest offense in the world. It's easy to understand why people like the Pack this week considering the PLETHORA of offensive and defensive injuries for the Giants. But I think people have too much faith in Green Bay's ability to get a win on the road.

 

Just my 2 bits...

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yeah, but - you went 0-3 last week on your locks.....

So, even if I go 1-2, I'm doing OK -- RIGHT? (hehehehe)

 

Just kidding ----- I like to go on my "kicks" or "themes" when at all possible.

This week was the "Road Warriors" Theme.

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yeah, but - you went 0-3 last week on your locks.....

 

Yep. But the good thing is, I only have one lock this week. :thumbsdown:

 

 

 

Considering my absolutely pathetic prognostication skills I wouldn't recomend anyone listening to me, but this is the game I'll be putting a big chunk of my account on: SF @ STL -3

 

I love betting on home teams in the NFL and I can't see STL starting off 0-2 at home. Not with all the weapons they have on offense. Meanwhile, San Fran's offense looked kinda sluggish last week. Perhaps this simple kind of thinking is why I suck so bad at predicting games.

 

:o

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i like the Chargers to cover against the Pats on the road. Also liking the Chiefs and the Titans too. I'm a dog kind of guy!

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Cinci -6.5 might be one of the best lines I've seen in a long time. I see no way the Browns make this game close. That's by far the play of the week!!!

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Lines as of 9/12/07 from Pinnacle Sports.

 

Sunday:

 

Buffalo vs Pittsburgh -10 (37)

Cincinnati -6.5 vs Cleveland (41.5)

Indianapolis -7 vs Tennessee (45.5)

Houston vs Carolina -6.5 (39)

San Francisco vs St Louis -3.5 (44)

Green Bay vs New York Giants -1 (37.5)

Atlanta vs Jacksonville -10.5 (34.5)

New Orleans -3.5 vs Tampa Bay (42)

Minnesota vs Detroit -3 (42.5)

Dallas -3.5 vs Miami (40.5)

Seattle -3 vs Arizona (42)

New York Jets vs Baltimore -10.5 (33.5)

Oakland vs Denver -10 (39)

Kansas City vs Chicago -12 (34.5)

San Diego vs New England -3.5 (46)

 

Monday:

 

Washington vs Philadelphia -6.5 (38.5)

 

I should have joined this discussion ages ago. I have secretly stalked GiantsRule, philly, bouve, and the Ditka's picks for a couple years now.

 

Don't have a five-star play like last week PIT -4.5 @ CLE, bet 8 units to win 7.3. Though parlays are generally considered sucker bets over the long term, I had a career week I guess in Week 1 and hit a 3-team and 4-team parlay to bring my Week 1 net total to +35.5 units. I know... you're happy for me :thumbsup: but the shizzle is probably going down hill from here :dunno: This being said, it gives me cushion for the rest of the season.

 

In general my favorite plays for Week 2 are:

PIT -10 v. BUF

JAX -10.5 v. ATL

SEA -3 @ ARI

 

Also like:

NO -3.5 @TB

DAL -3.5 @MIA

CHI -12 v. KC

 

Maybe I'm coming back to earth this week, who knows. Not sure about the units mentioned above, I may just do two 3-unit 3-game parlays, and if I can hit one of two I'm looking at net +12U for week 2. That or just go super conservative and throw 2U on each game. We shall see....

 

-SD

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What about the under in the SD/NE game?

 

it's @ 46...

 

I think you have to respect both D's is this game...

 

I could see this battle ending up 17-14....maybe 21-17...

 

I don't see this being a 28-27 game....

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So far, I am 4-1 for the NFL and +3 units. My early picks for this week are:

 

Cincinnati -6.5 at Cleveland: I'm 100% certain that the Bengals are a TD better than the Browns, and while I hate taking a 7 point favorite on the road, Cleveland is simply awful. The QB situation is up in the air for the Browns, and whoever starts will be short on NFL experience. This very well be my biggest bet this week.

 

Indianapolis -7 at Tennessee: Here I am again taking a TD favorite on the road after I just said that I hated it, but the Colts are explosive; there is no other way to say it. They will put up a ton of points and their defense looks good enough to prevent Tenn. from keeping it close. I think Indy by 14 sounds about right.

 

New Orleans -3.5 at Tampa Bay. I would hate to be the team lining up across from N.O. this weekend, and that team is T.B. The Bucs gave Seattle a decent game last week, but their offense is just not good enough to keep up with a pizzed off Saints squad that is looking to inflict some damage.

 

Like I said, these are my early takes, and I will likely be adding more later on. Good luck this week everyone.

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NFL YTD 6-0-2

 

Came out guns blazing last week, lets hope i can continue.

 

2 Units

 

Colts -7

Saints - 3 (locked in early in week before .5 point move

 

1 Unit

 

Dolphins +3.5

Giants (no line yet though my site but I will play Gmen regardless)

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8-6 +2.94 Units

 

Colts/Titans Under 45.5 1 Unit

St. Louis -3 2 Units

Lions -3 1 Unit/b]

Rams/Niners Under 44 1 Unit

Saints -3 1 Unit

Cowboys -3.5 2 Units

Seahawks -2.5 1 Units

Chargers/Patriots Under 46 3 Units

 

7 Point Teaser for 2 Units

Steelers -3

Jaguars -3

Packers +9.5

 

Good luck all...

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NFL 3-2-0 (+1.59)

 

 

Ok, gotta make a comeback on Sunday to make up for my horrible Sat, then maybe make a good play Monday, we'll see.

 

Cincy -7 (1 Unit to win .87) - Does Cleveland even have a defense? Is 7 too small of a line for this game? Seems so to me.

Indy -7 (1 unit to win .87) - Peyton doesnt generally play his best against the Titans, but I think Addai picks up his slack, and they cover by at least 10.

NO -3 (1 Unit to win .74) - I feel bad for TB, NO has something to prove and theyre gonna use TB to do it.

Dallas -3.5 (1 Unit to win .87) - Theyre thinking SB already, but they gotta go through Miami 1st, doesn't seem like this will be a problem, Dallas undoubtably has a better O than Washington, so Miami gets beat by 17.

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NFL YTD 2-0 +7 units (1 bet on texans, rest was a 3 team parlay)

 

Bets this week are following everyone else.

 

2 Units each

-3.5 Dallas

-7 Cinci

 

Will probably throw a parlay in also. Its like buying a lottery ticket, except you can't lie to yourself and say your doing to help fund the state education program.

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Took the Colts/Titans OVER 45.5, its on TV where I live. Ill just cross my fingers and hope for the best :thumbsdown:

 

 

Good Luck!!

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0-0 NFL YTD

 

Cincy seems to good to be true at 6.5

 

Colts roll -7

 

SDiego has all the revenge in the world +3.5

 

I can NOT see Tampa scoring with NO -3.5

 

Is Baltimore under worth a stab at 33.5? I know it will be low scoring, but that low?

 

Seattle/Az over 42? NFC west should=overs

 

Back tomorrow will plays. gl to all.

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cincy giving 6.5

 

and both dallas and New Orleans giving 3.5 seem like pretty safe bets :headbanger:

 

If Vegas makes it look that easy, either go against it or just stay the hell away. If this line doesn't raise an eyebrow, no offense but you shouldn't be betting the NFL. Something stinks here.

 

Most likely, I think Vegas is practically alone in realizing the Saints are not some kind of juggernaut. IMO they were overrated going into the Colts game - they get their heads handed to them and still people are talking like they are a SB team. I don't get it.

 

The line is -3.5? Saints will win by a FG, or Tampa pulls the upset, and Vegas wins a lot of dough this weekend.

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Colts Homer and I am taking Tennesse -7. It hurts but the numbers dont lie.

 

Tennessee is 7-1 in their last 8 games. They lost 13-14 to the Colts in the first meeting last year and won 20-17 in the second meeting.

 

Yes the Colts defense looked good but Freddy Keiaho probably isnt playing with a dislocated elbow and they sat Sanders from practice on Thursday (they said precautionary)

 

 

Plus I am taking SD +3.5 (SD wins outright - they beat the Pats last regular season meeting in '05 41-17 in Foxboro)

 

NO -3.5 over TB - Long week to prepare for Saints. Caddy and Garcia banged up. Saints will take their frustrations out on TB.

 

Good luck to all.

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Overall NFL YTD: 2-5; -4.0 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 1-2; -1.7 units

 

Struggled with the NFL week one, where almost every favorite covered. I'm looking for the dogs to bounce back a bit today.

 

For .5 units each

Cleveland (+7) WINNER

Tennessee (+7)@-115 WINNER

Houston (+6.5) WINNER

San Francisco (+3.5)@-120 WINNER

Green Bay (+2.5) WINNER

Minnesota (+3)@-105 PUSH

Miami (+3.5) LOSER

NY Jets (+10) WINNER

 

3 team teaser for 1 unit WINNER

Pittsburgh (PK)

Houston (+16.5)

Jacksonville (PK)

 

3 team teaser for 1 unit WINNER

Arizona (+13)

Oakland (+19.5)

Chicago (-1.5)

 

Good luck to all.

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NFL - YTD 2-3-2 down 1.45 units

 

Today's card

Cincy -7 - loser

Carolina -7 - loser

Atlanta +10.5 - 2 units - winner

Dallas -4 - winner

Denver -10 - 2 units - loser

 

added late:

 

NY Jets +10 - winner

New England -4 - winner

 

Atlanta is my play of the day...too many points.

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If Vegas makes it look that easy, either go against it or just stay the hell away. If this line doesn't raise an eyebrow, no offense but you shouldn't be betting the NFL. Something stinks here.

 

Most likely, I think Vegas is practically alone in realizing the Saints are not some kind of juggernaut. IMO they were overrated going into the Colts game - they get their heads handed to them and still people are talking like they are a SB team. I don't get it.

 

The line is -3.5? Saints will win by a FG, or Tampa pulls the upset, and Vegas wins a lot of dough this weekend.

 

Good analysis of how Vegas runs these things, though I think you may have glossed over an even better game.

 

Miami's defense is solid, and they come home needing a win after blowing an opportunity last week. Some QB play fairly well regardless the location; some look like one player at home and a different one on the road. Put Trent Green into that latter category. Eli Manning was having a field day vs the dallas defense prior to getting injured, and that was in dallas. Newman, a key part of the cowboys secondary, remains less than 100%.

 

The AFC dominated it's NFC counterparts last season by a wide margin, and I expect more of the same this year. A favored NFC East team barely hung on to defeat Miami at home last week. Fins may not win this game, but I think it's a better play than NO-TB.

 

The Saints have had 10 days to seethe over their week 1 performance. The Bucs got physically beaten up in Seattle last week, with injuries to their two key offensive players (Garcia and Cadillac). Garcia is right back where he was with Cleveland, et al a couple years ago: expected to carry the load for a bad team. Seattle ran well with Alexander vs the Bucs defense, and scored on a pass to backup RB Morris. Not a good sign against a running back-centric team like the Saints.

 

Doubt I'll be on either game; better plays on the board. But if I'm taking one, it's Miami.

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Good to see all the degenerates back at it again this year. I've been laying low and lurking the last week or so after a horrendous year last year. After yesterday I'm 8-7 in college and 1-3 :thumbsdown: in the NFL. I also lowered my standard bet to 25 clams, down from 50 last year. So I'm down a whopping 50 bucks so far.

 

The NFL slate this week looks brutal to me. I got burned by so many of those "easy" blowout games last year that I'm real leary about games I want to load up on such as the Bears -12 over KC. I mean it should be a cakewalk, KC sucks and the Bears at home should be pi$$ed after last week. There's no way they can't win by at least 2 td's, right? :wall: :cry: :doh:

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Good analysis of how Vegas runs these things, though I think you may have glossed over an even better game.

 

Miami's defense is solid, and they come home needing a win after blowing an opportunity last week. Some QB play fairly well regardless the location; some look like one player at home and a different one on the road. Put Trent Green into that latter category. Eli Manning was having a field day vs the dallas defense prior to getting injured, and that was in dallas. Newman, a key part of the cowboys secondary, remains less than 100%.

 

The AFC dominated it's NFC counterparts last season by a wide margin, and I expect more of the same this year. A favored NFC East team barely hung on to defeat Miami at home last week. Fins may not win this game, but I think it's a better play than NO-TB.

 

The Saints have had 10 days to seethe over their week 1 performance. The Bucs got physically beaten up in Seattle last week, with injuries to their two key offensive players (Garcia and Cadillac). Garcia is right back where he was with Cleveland, et al a couple years ago: expected to carry the load for a bad team. Seattle ran well with Alexander vs the Bucs defense, and scored on a pass to backup RB Morris. Not a good sign against a running back-centric team like the Saints.

 

Doubt I'll be on either game; better plays on the board. But if I'm taking one, it's Miami.

 

Very nice analysis from both of you on how Vegas tries to lure in a ton of $$$ onto one side as opposed to trying for an even 50/50 split on every game. I get tired of hearing these fools who say Vegas always strives to get even money on both sides. In essense Vegas gambles too. They can afford to as we all know the avg. bettor doesn't hit the 56% breaking even point.

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Where the action is going....

 

Pittsburgh 67% over Buffalo

Cincinnati 92% over Cleveland

Indianapolis 78% over Tennessee

Carolina 58% over Houston

St Louis 66% over San Francisco

Green Bay 64% over NY Giants

Jacksonville 61% over Atlanta

New Orleans 93% over Tampa Bay

Detroit 51% over Minnesota

Dallas 84% over Miami

Seattle 76% over Arizona

Baltimore 62% over NY Jets

Denver 68% over Oakland

Chicago 72% over Kansas City

New England 59% over San Diego

Philadelphia 61% over Washington

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Good analysis of how Vegas runs these things, though I think you may have glossed over an even better game.

 

Miami's defense is solid, and they come home needing a win after blowing an opportunity last week. Some QB play fairly well regardless the location; some look like one player at home and a different one on the road. Put Trent Green into that latter category. Eli Manning was having a field day vs the dallas defense prior to getting injured, and that was in dallas. Newman, a key part of the cowboys secondary, remains less than 100%.

 

The AFC dominated it's NFC counterparts last season by a wide margin, and I expect more of the same this year. A favored NFC East team barely hung on to defeat Miami at home last week. Fins may not win this game, but I think it's a better play than NO-TB.

 

The Saints have had 10 days to seethe over their week 1 performance. The Bucs got physically beaten up in Seattle last week, with injuries to their two key offensive players (Garcia and Cadillac). Garcia is right back where he was with Cleveland, et al a couple years ago: expected to carry the load for a bad team. Seattle ran well with Alexander vs the Bucs defense, and scored on a pass to backup RB Morris. Not a good sign against a running back-centric team like the Saints.

 

Doubt I'll be on either game; better plays on the board. But if I'm taking one, it's Miami.

 

 

Good analysis - too bad I already bet Dallas.

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Took a 1 unit flier on the "Home Team" to make the game fun, even though this should be a fun/good game anyhow.

Might just be tossing $, but it's the game I'll be watching....

 

MN Vikings +150 @ Detroit

1 unit to win 1.5 units

 

You can see my 3 other wagers above in::::

Max Power Premonitions posting

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NFL YTD 0-0

 

NCAA YTD 9-7

 

No plays week one to get a feel for things. Had I stuck with that typical approach in week one of NCAA play, I'd be sitting at 9-4 there. Live and learn.

 

A few I like this week. Let's see if I can start off well:

 

Chicago -12.5 KC: Some Chicago scores from last year, at home, vs overmatched opponents: 34-7 (Det), 37-6 (Sea), 40-7 (Buf), 41-10 (SF). Kansas City is overmatched. The Chiefs are likely a 6-7 win team, and they have the unenviable task of starting the season with two road games. I rarely lay this many points in the NFL, but this is about as good a scenario as you'll find.

 

Pittsburgh -10 Buffalo: Another double-digit spread, but things are bad in Buffalo. Aside from the obvious emotional distraction of Kevin Everett's injury, they suffered injuries in their already thin defensive backfield last week. The Steelers, meanwhile, put on a Globetrotter-esque performance at Cleveland. Now, Buffalo's going to try and play this on emotion, and if a couple big breaks go their way it could work. It usually doesn't, and this one could get ugly.

 

Arizona +3.5 Seattle: I love this game. The Cards do have the disadvantage of a short week, but they should be pissed after handing a game to San Francisco. Seattle was really unexciting in their win over Tampa, who played the majority of that game without Garcia and Cadillac Williams. Seattle still didn't seal the deal til late. Hackett's injury means the Seahawks are without their only reliable receiving threat. Alexander has made a career out of running against Arizona, but I expect Leinart & Co to force tempo and make Seattle throw. They can do that; they just can't catch.

 

Atlanta +10.5 @ Jax: I've been shocked this week to see the number of people taking the Jags as their Survivor Pool pick. I assume it's more of a pick against Atlanta. Jacksonville was completely ineffective at home vs Tennessee last week, unable to do anything offensively. They selected Garrad as their QB; again, I'm seeing this as more of a pick against Leftwich than anything else. He's really just average at best. His receivers are far below average. His RB are very good. The Falcons lost at Minnesota last week to a good defense that scored twice. That won't happen often. The Falcons are nothing special offensively either, but they'll be better than they were last week. I don't think they'll win, but there's a fair chance there won't be 16 points scored in this game by both teams.

 

Cleveland +7.5 Cincy: Ok, stop laughing. No, I mean it. C'mon. STOP IT!!! That's better. Hear me out. Derek Anderson is the best QB on the Browns roster. Granted, that may be akin to being the best looking member of the Danny DeVito-Rhea Pearlman family, but it's something. Last year, in the 4 games he played, he had three very good ones: a home win vs KC where he went 12-20, 2TD, 0 INT and a 95.5 rating; two road losses at Baltimore & Pittsburgh where he combined to go 44-69 and a rating around 85; and a horrible final game vs Tampa where the whole team sh!t the bed and he had a rating equivalent to an Olsen twin's waist size. Cincy is playing a division opponent, on the road, on a short week. The Bengals defense looks like more of the same to me. They'll score, but I don't think they're going to do much to stop anyone else. Hey, it's early in the season. If I'm going to stick my neck out, I'm going to do it with plenty of time to recoup.

 

Miami +3.5 dallas: See write up in a previous post in this thread.

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