Why the “Experts” are wrong about Julius Jones?

[cblue 0]

Tell me what you think about Alexander’s numbers in 2003, 2004 and 2005. psst.. Morris was the 3rd down back.

 

Saying that they will both get carries doesn’t mean anything. The Seahawks do 1 of 2 things on 3rd down. Pass or hand off to the FB. So having Morris in there for 3rd down has nothing to do with your fantasy stats. The difference last year was that Holmgren lost confidence in the Run game and Alexander. So Morris and Alexander would switch off series. But honestly.. Morris was not, and is not an every down back. So if you truly believe that Morris will split carries with J. Jones as the "Experts" suggest, then you will also miss the boat. I am simply letting you know that Jones will have much better opportunity on a very good football team then these projections are projecting. If he capitalizes on that opportunity he can be a top 10 back. A top 10 back with a 5th round pick is pretty darn good if you ask me.

 

This site is about us fanatics sharing our local knowledge. You can choose to listen, or follow the rest of the sheep and believe that J. Jones is the worst back in the league, #32 on the site I mentioned. That my friend will be your own mistake. Take him as your #3 back in the 4th.. you wont be sorry.

 

 

Assuming that J. Jones will even approach the number that Alexander put up behind a very good offensive line is ridiculous. Besides that, those Seattle teams ran more than this years Seattle team will.

 

What makes you think that J. Jones is a good RB? What makes you think he is better than Morris?

[Killer Elite 0]

Assuming that J. Jones will even approach the number that Alexander put up behind a very good offensive line is ridiculous. Besides that, those Seattle teams ran more than this years Seattle team will.

 

What makes you think that J. Jones is a good RB? What makes you think he is better than Morris?

 

Um... did you read what I wrote? When did I ever say J. Jones was going to put up Alexander like numbers? The point wasn't to compare Alexander and Jones, the point was to show that the Seahawks dont use a Running Back on 3rd down as a runner. Dont think because Morris is in on 3rd down that its RBBC. Its not.

 

The point of this post is that the "Experts" project J. Jones stats using last years run to pass ratio 35/65 split and a RBBC approach giving J. Jones 10-13 runs a game. The point of this thread is that IMHO that is dead wrong assuming Jones is the starter out of camp.

 

None of this is a comparison to anyone other than Jones himself and adding additional opportunity not calculated by said "experts".

[Gepetto 999]

If you really want a RB that runs full steam stright ahead wether theres anyon ein front of him or not JJ is your guy!! I think he would work well in a Denver system nowhere else.

 

I agree with this statement if you replace JJ with DMac.

[Yippie Skippy 0]

What makes you think that J. Jones is a good RB? What makes you think he is better than Morris?

 

 

The only people who think that Morris is better live nowhere near Seattle and have not watched as much of Morris.

[cblue 0]

Tell me what you think about Alexander’s numbers in 2003, 2004 and 2005. psst.. Morris was the 3rd down back.

 

Saying that they will both get carries doesn’t mean anything. The Seahawks do 1 of 2 things on 3rd down. Pass or hand off to the FB. So having Morris in there for 3rd down has nothing to do with your fantasy stats. The difference last year was that Holmgren lost confidence in the Run game and Alexander. So Morris and Alexander would switch off series. But honestly.. Morris was not, and is not an every down back. So if you truly believe that Morris will split carries with J. Jones as the "Experts" suggest, then you will also miss the boat. I am simply letting you know that Jones will have much better opportunity on a very good football team then these projections are projecting. If he capitalizes on that opportunity he can be a top 10 back. A top 10 back with a 5th round pick is pretty darn good if you ask me.

 

This site is about us fanatics sharing our local knowledge. You can choose to listen, or follow the rest of the sheep and believe that J. Jones is the worst back in the league, #32 on the site I mentioned. That my friend will be your own mistake. Take him as your #3 back in the 4th.. you wont be sorry.

 

 

It looks like you are trying to prove that even if JJ is only a 1st and 2nd down back (like Alexander was) that he can put up some good numbers.

 

Anyways, I appreciate your info on Morris, but I think I have a good read on JJ and I don't think he is a steal in the 5th round. He is not a very good RB. He may be better that Morris, but according to you- that is not saying much. As of right now he has not even been declared the starter. Even if he is declared the starter, we still don't know if he will get all the 1st and 2nd down carries (RBBC). Even if he does get all the 1st and 2nc down carries, the run blocking is not very good- JJ isn't good enough to turn the Seattle running game arouond.

 

In all likelyhood you are reaching here.

[Killer Elite 0]

Read the entire thread. You are making assumptions that are simply not relevant to the argument.

 

I have not made any judgment on performance. I have simply made a judgment on opportunity. If you are unwilling to read above to figure this out on your own, well I'm not going to go through it again.

 

You may be right.. he may suck. But if he gets his average YPC, the Seahawks play Seahawk Football, he is the starting RB (in on 1st and 2nd Down) and he plays 16 games, based on the Experts projections (not mine) he will be a top 10 back.

 

Take it for what it is.. I am just simply saying to believe he will have 50% of the carries in an offense that runs the ball 34% of the time is premature at best and shouldn't be part of anyone's projections, especial if you're an "Expert". The opportunity is closer to 75% in an offense that's closer to 50/50.

 

Damn there I go explaining it again.

[Dr. Octopus 0]

Tell me what you think about Alexander’s numbers in 2003, 2004 and 2005. psst.. Morris was the 3rd down back.

 

Saying that they will both get carries doesn’t mean anything. The Seahawks do 1 of 2 things on 3rd down. Pass or hand off to the FB. So having Morris in there for 3rd down has nothing to do with your fantasy stats. The difference last year was that Holmgren lost confidence in the Run game and Alexander. So Morris and Alexander would switch off series. But honestly.. Morris was not, and is not an every down back. So if you truly believe that Morris will split carries with J. Jones as the "Experts" suggest, then you will also miss the boat. I am simply letting you know that Jones will have much better opportunity on a very good football team then these projections are projecting. If he capitalizes on that opportunity he can be a top 10 back. A top 10 back with a 5th round pick is pretty darn good if you ask me.

 

This site is about us fanatics sharing our local knowledge. You can choose to listen, or follow the rest of the sheep and believe that J. Jones is the worst back in the league, #32 on the site I mentioned. That my friend will be your own mistake. Take him as your #3 back in the 4th.. you wont be sorry.

 

Julius Jones l= Shaun Alexander in his prime.

 

You aren't sharing knowledge just your opinion. I've watched both backs (Morris and Jones), imo they are not distinguishable. Neither are great NFL RBs. I think there are more viable RB options in round 4 than Julius Jones (his brother for one, Jamal Lewis, Lendale White, Kevin Smith) and WRs who will offer much more than Jones. If he was there in round 5, perhaps I's consider him as RB #3, but I see no way he ends up as a top 10 back even if he was a feature back who wasn't pulled on third downs or at the GL to start the season. I see no way he'd keep those roles as he doesn't excel at them.

 

He was a pretty exciting runner in his first season, but "lost it". He no longer runs with much vision, has only average speed and no power.

 

My projections for Jones (not a sheep, didn't even click on your link): 885 rushing 5 TDs 21 rec 165 yards 1 TD. Not a terrible #3 RB, but not sniffing the top 10.

 

 

Could I be wrong and he finds his way again? Sure. Your homeric optimism isn't swaying me though. (Now maybe if you want to sell me Ben Obamanu or Courtney Taylor, I'll buy).

[Joey Gladstone 33]

Julius Jones l= Shaun Alexander in his prime.

 

You aren't sharing knowledge just your opinion. I've watched both backs (Morris and Jones), imo they are not distinguishable. Neither are great NFL RBs. I think there are more viable RB options in round 4 than Julius Jones (his brother for one, Jamal Lewis, Lendale White, Kevin Smith) and WRs who will offer much more than Jones. If he was there in round 5, perhaps I's consider him as RB #3, but I see no way he ends up as a top 10 back even if he was a feature back who wasn't pulled on third downs or at the GL to start the season. I see no way he'd keep those roles as he doesn't excel at them.

 

He was a pretty exciting runner in his first season, but "lost it". He no longer runs with much vision, has only average speed and no power.

 

My projections for Jones (not a sheep, didn't even click on your link): 885 rushing 5 TDs 21 rec 165 yards 1 TD. Not a terrible #3 RB, but not sniffing the top 10.

Could I be wrong and he finds his way again? Sure. Your homeric optimism isn't swaying me though. (Now maybe if you want to sell me Ben Obamanu or Courtney Taylor, I'll buy).

 

I think he'll barely top 1000 (or barely miss out on it). 5 rushing TD's sounds about right.

 

I think he'll definitely factor more into the passing game. I'd give him just under 40 receptions for 400 yards and 2-3 td's.

[Killer Elite 0]

Well it turns out I'm not the only one who believes this.. I heard John Clayton on the radio yesterday also say that he expects 1200 yards out of J. Jones this year for Seattle. So I guess not all the "experts" missed the boat. Mind you John Clayton lives in Seattle, so I guess he has a bit more familiarity with the situation than most.

 

He sited the addition of a new offensive line coach, the addition of a Pro-Bowl Left Guard and the Seahawks returning to a much more balanced attack that will have the running game back to the NFL average.

 

Works for me.

[kutulu 1,559]

JJ's output this coming year seems to have one of the biggest difference of opinions on the fantasy landscape, IMO.

[Belushi 9]

You may be right.. he may suck. But if he gets his average YPC, the Seahawks play Seahawk Football, he is the starting RB (in on 1st and 2nd Down) and he plays 16 games, based on the Experts projections (not mine) he will be a top 10 back.

 

That's allot of ifs. If he sucks, then they will likely stop running the ball very much, because its ineffective like last season. Or they'll replace him with someone else. If he sucks, they're not going to go 50/50 run/pass, and keep him in on 1st and 2nd down. Your projections are only valid if he runs well, and everyone's been trying to tell you that based on his past its unlikely he will. Projecting him to get all the 1st and 2nd down carries, playing a full 16 games and finishing top 10 all assume that he's good enough to be an effective runner behind an average line. If he couldn't do that behind Dallas's line, why would you expect him to be any better in Seattle?

 

I know it's just your opinion, but your projections only make sense if you think he will do well in Seattle. You can't just take his ypc times the number of times you think Seattle will run the ball and go, wow, top 10 RB! It all depends on how good of a runner he is. If he was behind a dominant offensive line, it might be different. But them, Morris might be just as effective too.

[Belushi 9]

Here's the latest from Rotoworld. Doesn't exactly sound like Jones is setting the camp on fire, and may not even be the starter going into the season.

 

Maurice Morris will start the Seahawks' third exhibition game at tailback.

Julius Jones gets the nod this weekend. Starters in the third game usually start at the beginning of the regular season. Morris has the edge in the position battle, but a productive showing could earn Jones more of a look.

[coyote-kid 0]

I recently read a box score from the website whatifsports.com where they simulated the season 1000 times and determined that the Seahawks where in a first round game at home vs. the Giants. In this game the simulation has the Seahawks offense throwing the ball 42 times and running it 22. (They have the Seahawks losing by the way. But then they also show 0 false starts for the Giants, so I have no idea how good their simulation is when it doesn’t take Qwest field into account)

 

Though I realize that if this was last season I would agree with this 100% (all but the losing part). But last season’s pass heavy offense was an abjuration for Mike Holmgren and is not the norm. The Seahawks have brought in new coaches, new personal and re-emphasized the importance on the run game this year. To think they will still not have a balanced attack is to believe that Holmgren will fail.

 

I don’t know that Jones will come out on top of the heap out of training camp, but at this time you would have to assume he does as he is the most talented back in camp. So barring injury he will not be limited to 13 touches a game as this simulation suggests. The idea that the Seahawks are now RBBC is premature at best and the idea that they run only 34% of the time is crazy talk.

 

It’s my belief that if affective Jones will be the man in Seattle. So adding 16% to even the offensive attack, and another 25% as it more realistically will be a 75% Jones 25% comity approach then the websites 50/50 split. That means he will get a minimum of +40% to all current projections based off last years stats. So using the same sites (whatifsports.com) projections of their 32nd best fantasy RB Julius Jones: They have him at 1160 combine yards and 8 TDs. I would guess a more realistic projection is 1600 combine yards and 11 TDs. This pushes Jones from 32nd to 7th behind Marion Barber.

 

So I would argue that right now Julius Jones is by far the most undervalued RB. He is currently listed by all “Experts” as a 4th-6th rounder. Can you say VALUE!!!!

 

This is why, in my viewpoint, the “Experts” are wrong about Julius Jones.

(I reserve the right to change said viewpoint after training camp )

 

Sorry, but I am not buying it, drinking it, etc.

Furthermore, I think M. Morris is the man when it is all said and done in Seattle, JMHO.......

[DaaGuy 0]

No insult was intended. It is just a fact that without that KC offensive line they would be mediocre backs. P. Holmes was the epitome of mediocre RB's before he was privileged to run behind an offensive line that will produce 3-4 Hall of Famers. As those Hall of Fame linemen have retired, L. Johnson has begun to show how mediocre he is.

 

First of all thats asinine. They had a good oline but they are great backs in their own right. And you wanna talk about mediocre backs privileged to run behind an allstar oline take a look at Shaun Alexander, HE SUCKED, but was lucky enough to run behind that oline. If he ran anywhere else he would have never put up close to the numbers he did in Seattle, his decline went hand in hand with the evaporation of the line.

 

End of the day JJ sucks, sucked in Dallas with all the chances in the world and hes gonna suck in Seattle just the same. Not to mention he may not even be the starter! Do yourself a favor and stay away from him, unless he's still around in the 8th round.

[kutulu 1,559]

I wasted a pick on JJ's sorry ass.

[LOD01 194]

Once again, let me state that the Seattle OL is WORSE than the 2007 Dallas OL. Behind that OL, the suckage that is Julius Jones, could not even average 4 ypc and Barber took over as the #1 RB. Jones sucks, he's soft and has no vision what so ever. Take him and prepare for disappointment.

[edjr 5,644]

Seattle does not have the dominant offensive line that it takes to turn a mediocre back into a superstar. (See KC and P. Holmes and L. Johnson).

 

Most running backs are a product of most of these, their defense getting them the ball, their offensive line blocking and their QB being able to throw the ball a little and their team usually winning.

 

See Emmitt Smiff as the #1 example

 

Can you name 10 GREAT running backs in the history of the NFL that got most of their stats with crappy D's, crappy qb's and crappy offensive lines and on crappy teams teams?

 

Barry Sanders, Walter Payton, OJ Simpson. That's 3.

[Candygram4Mongo 8]

I drafted JJ in the 6th round as an RB3 last season, and was very disappointed.

His numbers were never there, and when I watched his games, I could see why.

He seemed to lack power to knock defenders backward, and when he had space his speed was below average.

It seemed he was typically taken down by the first defender to touch him.

I saw 2-3 "big" plays, where was able to break to the open field, and pick up a big 8-10 yards.

Even with my injury problems at RB, I cut him by week 6.

 

That was in a diverse offense, with a top oline.

I don't see the same talent in SEA, and I don't want to have a slow, easy to tackle runner with a tenuous grip on the starters spot on my roster.

 

I rate him at the bottom of all starting RBs. Even if he is the starter, fewer than 1000 yds would not be a surprise to me.

I'm not drafting him.

[FFNoob 0]

anyone that thinks priest holmes was a mediocre back is a moron... you act like he didn't run when Roaf or shields were injured... I am the biggest proponent of the oline but Too say that PADRE was a mediocre back obviously never saw him on the field or just doesn't know anything about football.... i've never seen a guy who would jump over the pile EVERYTIME and score a td.... now, you want to talk a mediocre back that was a byproduct of a good oline, look no further than shawn alexander... that guy is a better example of your argument... who btw Sucked it up the moment hutch got outta seattle.. (yes i'm a seattle homer). also, alexander could never break a tackle or make cuts the way padre did....

[cblue 0]

First of all thats asinine. They had a good oline but they are great backs in their own right. And you wanna talk about mediocre backs privileged to run behind an allstar oline take a look at Shaun Alexander, HE SUCKED, but was lucky enough to run behind that oline. If he ran anywhere else he would have never put up close to the numbers he did in Seattle, his decline went hand in hand with the evaporation of the line.

 

End of the day JJ sucks, sucked in Dallas with all the chances in the world and hes gonna suck in Seattle just the same. Not to mention he may not even be the starter! Do yourself a favor and stay away from him, unless he's still around in the 8th round.

 

 

We agree, what you said is what I am saying.

[kutulu 1,559]

The next few weeks could be make or break for JJ's career.

[kutulu 1,559]

Take away his 1 long run (27 yards for a TD) he had a soild, if unspectacular, 4.0 average. Maybe he could do a little better if they actually had a starting level WR who wasn't hurt on the roster.

[Joey Gladstone 33]

I was mildly happy, but who cares, it was against the focking 49ers. Any decent team would have blown the Hawks out.

[DanXIII 8]

LJ will prove what kind of RB he is this year. With a very average offensive line and QB, he will have the perfect opportunity to prove that his past success was due to his greatness and not his offensive line. He had 8 games last year under the same conditions and he was not very impressive at all.

 

FWIW, he averaged nearly 100 YFS last season behind that line before he went down with injury, not to mention the fact that he got 10, 16 and 9 carries in three of the first five games. If LJ stays healthy and doesn't succeed this year, it will be Herm Edwards' fault, not LJ's.

[kutulu 1,559]

ATT	YDS	TD	LG
22	140	1	32