Have our financial issues finally turned the corner?

[The Moz 69]

Lately I have had that feeling like things have kind a bottomed out already. Then i read this from Paulson link and fock if it at least doesn't give a little hope this mess might not be as God awful as we all thought it was going to be.

 

Now I don't think it's time to start spending Money like it was 2005 but I think a little optimism should be encouraged as financial markets seem to be more stable ( not that their really stable - just moreso ). I dunno about you all but I am starting think this will turn into a situation alot more like 2001 than 1929.

 

 

 

Barack Obama really did make all better!

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

Cue RLLD's apocalyptic diatribe in 3...2....1....

[The Moz 69]

Cue RLLD's apocalyptic diatribe in 3...2....1....

 

 

Maybe even he might take the tinfoilhat off a little.

[BLS 313]

No. Not even close.

 

 

 

If you trust Paulson that this is basically 'over', then you haven't been paying attention.

 

This guy, many politicians and numerous other financial "experts", had said less than a year ago that there was no housing bubble and no issues with the markets.

 

I don't think we've even seen the bad stuff yet.

[The Moz 69]

No. Not even close.

 

 

 

If you trust Paulson that this is basically 'over', then you haven't been paying attention.

 

This guy, many politicians and numerous other financial "experts", had said less than a year ago that there was no housing bubble and no issues with the markets.

 

I don't think we've even seen the bad stuff yet.

 

 

I don't trust Paulson - I just seems like things are starting to stabilize a little as it isn't going as crazy as it has been.

[usurpers26 26]

2009 will be crap, just hope we start setting "higher lows" across the board...

 

Good stock buying opportunities though

 

I don't trust Paulson - I just seems like things are starting to stabilize a little as it isn't going as crazy as it has been.

[The Moz 69]

2009 will be crap, just hope we start setting "higher lows" across the board...

 

Good stock buying opportunities though

 

 

I don't expect 2009 to be a great economic year but I am only syaing I don't see 1929 II either like some others ( rlld ) do.

[usurpers26 26]

Agreed...we have another round of mortgage failures predicted, so I think a lot depends on that chain reaction.

 

Beyond that, the majority of people actually believe the news of all the doom and gloom prophecies - so that never helps.

 

You can clearly see this in the market, solid companies putting out positive news/numbers and dropping. Companies putting out slightly negative news and plummeting. Overreaction, bearish whatever you want to call it...

 

I don't expect 2009 to be a great economic year but I am only syaing I don't see 1929 II either like some others ( rlld ) do.

[Bill E. 666]

I don't expect 2009 to be a great economic year but I am only syaing I don't see 1929 II either like some others ( rlld ) do.

 

There have been tons of announced layoffs that have not occurred yet. Because of these layoffs a lot of people that are doing ok now will be foreclosed on in '09 which will cause more layoffs which will cause more foreclosures. I think 08 was the tip of the iceberg.

[Voice_Of_Reason 0]

I think we have yet to hit the half way point in this whole thing. We still have 2-3 years of arms to still turn over, and on top of that, more and more people are talking about just walking away from their homes (people who can pay their mortgage) because their house is worth so much less than they paid for it. Layoffs only compound the problem.

[RLLD 3,455]

Cue RLLD's apocalyptic diatribe in 3...2....1....

 

 

present!!

 

If you want cheery-rosy excrement you will have to go to Lawrence Yun, or your broker.....onyl liars with something to gain from people's naivety are selling the notion of a "bottom" or pending recovery as our present condition is not yet at that stage.

 

In fact, the spring months are going to find an entirely new swath of job losses and mortgage-related destruction as the next wave is just beginning to crest for mortgage failures. 2009 is going to be a tough......tough year....

 

So long as the failure are allowed to do their thing, 2010 could be a better year, but with the government stepping in to bailout those who deserve to die, well, it could be a bit longer.....

[Isotopes 1]

present!!

 

If you want cheery-rosy excrement you will have to go to Lawrence Yun, or your broker.....onyl liars with something to gain from people's naivety are selling the notion of a "bottom" or pending recovery as our present condition is not yet at that stage.

 

In fact, the spring months are going to find an entirely new swath of job losses and mortgage-related destruction as the next wave is just beginning to crest for mortgage failures. 2009 is going to be a tough......tough year....

 

So long as the failure are allowed to do their thing, 2010 could be a better year, but with the government stepping in to bailout those who deserve to die, well, it could be a bit longer.....

 

So if I am secure in my job will this Spring be a good time to go house shopping? It seems like prices are very good around here and if they start giving out 4.5% 30 year loans....it seems like a good time to buy.

[RLLD 3,455]

So if I am secure in my job will this Spring be a good time to go house shopping? It seems like prices are very good around here and if they start giving out 4.5% 30 year loans....it seems like a good time to buy.

 

The Fed did just drop the overnight rate to its lowest ever, AND does plan to offer a discount to perhaps 4.5% sometime in the spring to "select customers" for mortgage-related issuance; one could certainly surmise that the spring offers a favorable market for those interested in purchasing a home.

 

I suspect that a better bargain could be obtained later in the year, in September and October; I think the lower rates will still be present, and I also think that by then people will actually be pricing their homes at if not well-below their true intrinsic value. In the last 4-6 months the idiots trying to sell their homes have made reasonable price adjustments in many markets, or pulled them altogether.

 

As such, you should buy when you find the right deal, regardless.....if you can afford the home using traditional lending tools then it is properly priced for your respective locale, and is likely a good deal. If you plan to move in perhaps 4-8 years, you may still have a tough time getting more than you actually paid for it, but if you are buying this thing to actually live in it, you should be fine.

[Isotopes 1]

The Fed did just drop the overnight rate to its lowest ever, AND does plan to offer a discount to perhaps 4.5% sometime in the spring to "select customers" for mortgage-related issuance; one could certainly surmise that the spring offers a favorable market for those interested in purchasing a home.

 

I suspect that a better bargain could be obtained later in the year, in September and October; I think the lower rates will still be present, and I also think that by then people will actually be pricing their homes at if not well-below their true intrinsic value. In the last 4-6 months the idiots trying to sell their homes have made reasonable price adjustments in many markets, or pulled them altogether.

 

As such, you should buy when you find the right deal, regardless.....if you can afford the home using traditional lending tools then it is properly priced for your respective locale, and is likely a good deal. If you plan to move in perhaps 4-8 years, you may still have a tough time getting more than you actually paid for it, but if you are buying this thing to actually live in it, you should be fine.

 

We are buying to actually live in it long term. We currently live in a smallish 3 bedroom house. We have a 3 year old and new baby on they way. We were planning on getting a bigger house in 2010. With the market the way it is and the rates so low, we are thinking about doing it this year.

[RLLD 3,455]

We are buying to actually live in it long term. We currently live in a smallish 3 bedroom house. We have a 3 year old and new baby on they way. We were planning on getting a bigger house in 2010. With the market the way it is and the rates so low, we are thinking about doing it this year.

 

By the end of next year you might find some better opportunities, but if you want to move on it earlier, say in the spring, then go for it......

 

If you can wait until fall, I assert that by THAT time the trough in prices may be found, whereas in 2010 a more stable, if not rising, market will transpire.....by the end of next year almost all of the worst resets etc should have finally transpired.....

[Greedo 13]

RLLD:

 

What state do you think the economy would be in if banks, insurance companies, and car companies no longer existed?

[The Moz 69]

If I could sell my house for anyhting near what I paid for it - 310K I would! and get a house for the same 300K now that owulda cost me 500K 3 years ago.

[RLLD 3,455]

RLLD:

 

What state do you think the economy would be in if banks, insurance companies, and car companies no longer existed?

 

Missisippi?

[kutulu 1,551]

No.

[tikigods 76]

I'm waiting until the market bottoms out around 7K before I start dumping my retirement money back into it. In the meantime, I'll ride it out in the regular old bank at super slow growth.

 

I figure once the bottom comes will be the time to start reinvesting in real estate. Probably a good time to start investing back into apartment buildings. Find a cheap contractor who is desperate to find some work, fix up a few buildings and get them to HUD standards, them find some low income tenants who have government money so you know you'll get paid. Yeah...they're deadbeats but the HUD check won't bounce.

 

Climb down off the ledge...it's not all gloom and doom. Find the silver lining.

[RLLD 3,455]

I'm waiting until the market bottoms out around 7K before I start dumping my retirement money back into it. In the meantime, I'll ride it out in the regular old bank at super slow growth.

 

I figure once the bottom comes will be the time to start reinvesting in real estate. Probably a good time to start investing back into apartment buildings. Find a cheap contractor who is desperate to find some work, fix up a few buildings and get them to HUD standards, them find some low income tenants who have government money so you know you'll get paid. Yeah...they're deadbeats but the HUD check won't bounce.

 

Climb down off the ledge...it's not all gloom and doom. Find the silver lining.

 

It's out there, I have been trying to tell people where to find it for over a year, some have listened and emailed me about it, most think they have it all figured out...as they watch their investments tank...

[tikigods 76]

It's out there, I have been trying to tell people where to find it for over a year, some have listened and emailed me about it, most think they have it all figured out...as they watch their investments tank...

 

I'm just waiting for a few more foreclosures and the real estate prices to come down. I've got the capital to invest but I'm just waiting until the panic hits fever pitch and then buy. It's almost amusing watching the lemmings run off the cliffs. Their loss is my gain.

[jocstrap 8]

heLL no it's not over. You thought it was bad in 1999/2000 and that was a fake dot.com bubble tech burst, this is the real deal. Auto, housing, banking, congress, senate, oil towel heads sending the price per barrel to 170ish causing world wide panic only to drop it to a real low price now, the whole focking infrastructure is in shambles. I'm putting $1500 into ameritrade right now so when the DOW hits 7000k I'll buy. Then in two years I'll cash out 300% my original investment.

[Brad GLuckman 518]

How does all of this affect building homes?

In the Summer/Fall of 2010 I will start looking to build a home. I won't be paying a home builder, I'm going to contract all the work out myself.

I've been told that building a house will be cheap just as buying one would be, is this true?

Also is this timeframe too late? Will the prices start to recover?

[RLLD 3,455]

How does all of this affect building homes? Builders have halted the pursuit of new developments, but are working to complete those they are already working on; builders have been selling off land they purchased at the height of the market for a fraction of their costs; new home construction will remain in contraction until inventory levels fall to a place were the resumption of investment in new inventory makes sense.

 

In the Summer/Fall of 2010 I will start looking to build a home. I won't be paying a home builder, I'm going to contract all the work out myself. This is the most cost effective manner, but also the most soul wrenching. I spent a few years doing something very similar and in the end it was totally worth it as I saved about $500k building it myself. Still, its work.......

 

I've been told that building a house will be cheap just as buying one would be, is this true? In recent years, building it was commensurate, and in may cases less expensive. Even if the figures were even you would likely be getting a larger and newer home for prices that approximated existing ones. Why overpay some idiot for their 30 or 40 year old shack when you could build new for the same amount?

 

Also is this timeframe too late? Will the prices start to recover? The good thing, for you, is that people are going to be desperate, and you will have access to prices that are reasonable, no inflated profits....As far as a price "recovery" there is no way to be certain, a number of things must cascade for prices to stabilize, not recover...just stabilize. Suffice it to say that prices are finally correcting to their proper place, and for people like you this is a very good thing.

[Brad GLuckman 518]

How does all of this affect building homes? Builders have halted the pursuit of new developments, but are working to complete those they are already working on; builders have been selling off land they purchased at the height of the market for a fraction of their costs; new home construction will remain in contraction until inventory levels fall to a place were the resumption of investment in new inventory makes sense.

 

In the Summer/Fall of 2010 I will start looking to build a home. I won't be paying a home builder, I'm going to contract all the work out myself. This is the most cost effective manner, but also the most soul wrenching. I spent a few years doing something very similar and in the end it was totally worth it as I saved about $500k building it myself. Still, its work.......

 

I've been told that building a house will be cheap just as buying one would be, is this true? In recent years, building it was commensurate, and in may cases less expensive. Even if the figures were even you would likely be getting a larger and newer home for prices that approximated existing ones. Why overpay some idiot for their 30 or 40 year old shack when you could build new for the same amount?

 

Also is this timeframe too late? Will the prices start to recover? The good thing, for you, is that people are going to be desperate, and you will have access to prices that are reasonable, no inflated profits....As far as a price "recovery" there is no way to be certain, a number of things must cascade for prices to stabilize, not recover...just stabilize. Suffice it to say that prices are finally correcting to their proper place, and for people like you this is a very good thing.

 

Thanks RLLD, appreciate the help. I've heard it's a complete pain in the ass to contract it out yourself, but I want to get the most for my money so I'll put up with the crap to get a better house in the long run. From what I've researched, I can save about 20-30% by contracting myself.

[RLLD 3,455]

Thanks RLLD, appreciate the help. I've heard it's a complete pain in the ass to contract it out yourself, but I want to get the most for my money so I'll put up with the crap to get a better house in the long run. From what I've researched, I can save about 20-30% by contracting myself.

 

That is true in my personal experience. There are also "hidden" costs that need to be accounted for to include: A bond from the local government, septic/well installation or public water connection, easements, others.....

[usurpers26 26]

But you can get great returns right now too, there is so much panic selling...and if you are waiting for a magical DOW number to enter - you might be waiting forever. Focus on strong companies that are beat down...

 

HIG (in at $7), XL (been in and out a few times, right now in at $3.05), CHK (in at $12) to name a few - good luck.

 

 

I'm putting $1500 into ameritrade right now so when the DOW hits 7000k I'll buy. Then in two years I'll cash out 300% my original investment.