Looking Ahead to FF Redrafts: 2009 (Post-playoff edition)

[Fumbleweed 426]

Here's an update from the previous look from five weeks ago. The analysis continues to include no potential rookies and assumes minimal team changes at this point. I'm curious as how other opinions differ from mine. Again, this is NOT PPR.

 

Round One:

 

1. Adrian Peterson

2. Michael Turner

3. Matt Forte (+1)

4. Maurice Jones-Drew (+7)

5. Steven Jackson (+1)

6. Drew Brees (+1)

7. Brian Westbrook (-4)

8. DeAngelo Williams (-3)

9. Larry Fitzgerald (+3)

10. Chris Johnson (+3)

11. LaDainian Tomlinson (-3)

12. Andre Johnson (-2)

 

Round Two:

 

13. Clinton Portis (-4)

14. Frank Gore

15. Randy Moss (+1)

16. Marshawn Lynch (-1)

17. Marion Barber (+3)

18. Calvin Johnson (+7)

19. Steve Slaton (-2)

20. Steve Smith (-2)

21. Peyton Manning (-2)

22. Brandon Jacobs

23. Thomas Jones (-2)

24. Roddy White (+4)

 

Round Three:

 

25. Ronnie Brown (+6)

26. Brandon Marshall (-2)

27. Reggie Wayne (+5)

28. Greg Jennings (+6)

29. Jay Cutler (+4)

30. Ryan Grant

31. Joseph Addai (-5)

32. Tom Brady (-9)

33. Anquan Boldin (-6)

34. Tony Romo (-5)

35. Kurt Warner

36. Reggie Bush (+3)

 

Round Four:

 

37. Terrell Owens

38. Marques Colston (+4)

39. Kevin Smith (-3)

40. Pierre Thomas (+5)

41. Tony Gonzalez (-3)

42. Philip Rivers (-1)

43. T.J. Houshmandzadeh (+3)

44. Wes Welker (-1)

45. Jason Witten (-1)

46. Larry Johnson (-6)

47. Antonio Gates

48. Darren McFadden

 

Next five QBs in order: Aaron Rodgers, Donovan McNabb, Matt Schaub, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan

 

Next two RBs in order: Jonathan Stewart, Willie Parker

 

Next five WRs in order: Antonio Bryant, Santonio Holmes, Dwayne Bowe, Bernard Berrian, Chad Johnson (Ocho Cinco)

 

Thoughts?

[MTSkiBum 1,594]

Sjax gets a lot of love for 1 good season that happened 3 seasons ago. I assume the only reason you dont have Gore in the first round is injury concerns, but how the hell is gore anymore of an injury concern than Sjax. Plus i could argue that gore has more talent than sjax as well.

 

Gore>Sjax

Barber>Sjax

 

 

 

 

 

Also, in my main league no way do that many QB's go in those first 4 rounds.

[Gepetto 988]

I think the QBs are all way too high. I wouldn't even draft Brees until the mid-4th round or later. And that's in a 6 point per passing TD league. Just my opinion. Otherwise, it's pretty good evolving list.

[FrankRizzo 0]

Willie in Round 5 .... I could only hope! Not sure if I draft DMcFadd or LJ in front of him ...

[Hagy34 0]

Willie in Round 5 .... I could only hope! Not sure if I draft DMcFadd or LJ in front of him ...

 

Time share next year my friend. They didn't spend a first rounder on Mendenhall to let him sit on the bench. Parker won't be a feature back next year and he already doesnt score TDs.

[Fumbleweed 426]

I think the QBs are all way too high. I wouldn't even draft Brees until the mid-4th round or later. And that's in a 6 point per passing TD league. Just my opinion. Otherwise, it's pretty good evolving list.

 

Guy throws for 5,000+ yards and lasts until the fourth round?

 

Not sure I understand that logic....

[MTSkiBum 1,594]

Time share next year my friend. They didn't spend a first rounder on Mendenhall to let him sit on the bench. Parker won't be a feature back next year and he already doesnt score TDs.

 

Parker was the short yardage back when mendenhall was healthy this last season. Also, I dont think it is going to be a true timeshare next season. Mendenhall will be slightly more than a spell back.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

A couple opinions/observations at first glance:

 

1-In no format whatsoever would I take Portis over Gore next year.

 

2-Interesting how close Bush and Pierre Thomas are. That is a 100% guess at this point since we're not sure about Bush. I'm still hoping that Thomas stays relatively low in everyone's rankings. I want him on my team next year.

[Gepetto 988]

Guy throws for 5,000+ yards and lasts until the fourth round?

 

Not sure I understand that logic....

 

It is easier to find a QB after the 4th round that puts up good numbers than finding a RB and/or WR after 3 rounds that puts up good numbers. It's all about the point differential between the QB you could choose in the 2nd/3rd round compared to a QB in the 5th - vs. - a 2nd/3rd Round WR vs. a 5th round WR.

[Fumbleweed 426]

It is easier to find a QB after the 4th round that puts up good numbers than finding a RB and/or WR after 3 rounds that puts up good numbers. It's all about the point differential between the QB you could choose in the 2nd/3rd round compared to a QB in the 5th - vs. - a 2nd/3rd Round WR vs. a 5th round WR.

 

You think I don't understand that? That's basic stuff. And none of it justifies passing on a 5,000 yard passer for three rounds.

[Gepetto 988]

You think I don't understand that? That's basic stuff. And none of it justifies passing on a 5,000 yard passer for three rounds.

It does justify passing on a 5000 yard passer.

It's unlikely Brees repeats his performance in '09. In '07 he killed fantasy owners and his team with a very slow start. Look back at the history of NFL fantasy QBs the last 15 years. Steve Young, Favre, Peyton Manning, ... they all fell off and didn't justify their 1st round selection. People always chase what happened in the last year.

[Fumbleweed 426]

It does justify passing on a 5000 yard passer.

It's unlikely Brees repeats his performance in '09. In '07 he killed fantasy owners and his team with a very slow start. Look back at the history of NFL fantasy QBs the last 15 years. Steve Young, Favre, Peyton Manning, ... they all fell off and didn't justify their 1st round selection. People always chase what happened in the last year.

 

There is some truth to that...but it happens at RB, too.

 

I just don't see how Brees doesn't end up with 4,500 yards and 30 TDs next year. Same system, same playmakers...good schedule. Nothing warrants dropping him as far as you have.

[jdon 28]

There is some truth to that...but it happens at RB, too.

 

I just don't see how Brees doesn't end up with 4,500 yards and 30 TDs next year. Same system, same playmakers...good schedule. Nothing warrants dropping him as far as you have.

 

I will tell you how he ends up with less yards and TDs:

1.) bush stays healthy or Pierre takes over = more production from the run game next year

2.) They actually win a few games!!! and then they aren't chasing all the time and don't have to throw as much.

 

I'd imagine Brees gets around 4000 and somewhere between 27-32. Great numbers, but nothing worth a draft pick in the first two rounds in my book. Someone will take him earlier than I will and that is fine.

jdon

[XToday 0]

I think people are seriously underestimating Kevin Smith's potential next year.

[Melissa Stark 1]

Parker should stay at his draft position, he's been splitting time all year and can't catch.

 

 

Brees, no matter what anyone says, in many leagues, he will go 1st or 2nd rnds, just based on his latest year alone.

 

I think brees will put up another good season. Based on his value, he's a no brainer pick.

[Cuse9 128]

I will tell you how he ends up with less yards and TDs:

1.) bush stays healthy or Pierre takes over = more production from the run game next year

2.) They actually win a few games!!! and then they aren't chasing all the time and don't have to throw as much.

 

I'd imagine Brees gets around 4000 and somewhere between 27-32. Great numbers, but nothing worth a draft pick in the first two rounds in my book. Someone will take him earlier than I will and that is fine.

jdon

You forgot to add in Colston is healthy next year and the possiblity of Shockey getting heavily into the mix. If you don't think a healthy Bush helps Brees numbers you're nuts. Not to mention Lance Moore and Meacham. Brees has the potential to put up even better numbers next year. I don't know if he'll duplicate the numbers, but there is nothing saying that he won't. Even with Pierre Thomas being involved from the get go, Brees will chuck the ball alot!

 

They were never really "chasing the clock" and "had to throw alot". They lost six games by a touchdown or less. They threw because that is what they were best at, which should continue next year.

[The Moz 69]

Guy throws for 5,000+ yards and lasts until the fourth round?

 

Not sure I understand that logic....

 

Dude - I think he wants to wait to wait for Tommy Maddox ... rumor has it he is due for a 5000 yard season as well.

[jdon 28]

You forgot to add in Colston is healthy next year and the possiblity of Shockey getting heavily into the mix. If you don't think a healthy Bush helps Brees numbers you're nuts. Not to mention Lance Moore and Meacham. Brees has the potential to put up even better numbers next year. I don't know if he'll duplicate the numbers, but there is nothing saying that he won't. Even with Pierre Thomas being involved from the get go, Brees will chuck the ball alot!

 

They were never really "chasing the clock" and "had to throw alot". They lost six games by a touchdown or less. They threw because that is what they were best at, which should continue next year.

 

my bad, pencil in Brees for 6000 and 40.

 

ps. they had to throw alot and all those close games had them 'chasing the clock'... word on the street is that winning teams don't have to throw for 5000 yards, unless of course they are the patriots and are just trying to run up the score. nice try though...

love,

jdon

[The Moz 69]

of the top 10 RB's last season 5 were likely drafted round 5 or later - Slaton , CJIII , Forte , Dwill , TJ ( 3 likey taken at the end of draft if at all )

 

of the top 10 QB's last season 5 were among the consensus top 10 last year - Cutler , Manning , McNabb , Brees , Romo ( seems manning is always there thats why he is drafted high not that he wil be the grestest QB he will be among them though )

 

of the top 10 WR's last year 5 likely wern't taken in the first rounds - CJII, White, Welker , Bryant , Jennings

 

TE - if ya want a safe draft pick take a top 5 TE - they got a 80% shot at performing to draft status.

 

defenses - Baltimore and eagles were 1-2 ... likely lasted until the end of drafts if drafted

 

 

 

I could of won any league with players taken round 12 or later -- Warner , CJIII , Slaton , Dwill , Bryant , Royal , Moore , Carlson

 

 

People think your first rounders are your safe picks - bullshit they got every bit as great a chance as busting as anyhting else. You win in rounds 5-10 and on the waiver wire ...

 

 

JMHO

[bswarriors 0]

I think people are seriously underestimating Kevin Smith's potential next year.

 

 

SHHHHHHHHHHH. owners in my league made fun of me for talking this guy up throughout last season. he was solid down the stretch and I actually started him the last 5 weeks because of injuries. If they can get a few pieces on the OL and commit the run he will be a real value guy next year.

[Cuse9 128]

my bad, pencil in Brees for 6000 and 40.

 

ps. they had to throw alot and all those close games had them 'chasing the clock'... word on the street is that winning teams don't have to throw for 5000 yards, unless of course they are the patriots and are just trying to run up the score. nice try though...

love,

jdon

Are you serious. Your arguement of Brees not throwing for alot of yards again is because Reggie Bush will be healthy. Yet, you simply throw out the fact that Bush is one of his best ways to get passing yards AND his #1 wr was down for much of the season. Come on, does that make sense to you.

Here is a quote from a game this year:

On offense, Reggie Bush continues to be, well, Reggie Bush. His contributions primarily came in the passing game (seven catches for 63 yards). As a rusher, he struggled once again, gaining only 28 yards on ten carries.

P.S. 1984 Dan Marino threw for 5000 yards and the Dolphins went to the Super Bowl. As you stated, Brady threw 50+ TD's, a ton of yards and the Pats went to the Super Bowl. Warner threw for 4830 yards in 2001 and again, they went to the Super Bowl. Of the top ten single season passing totals of all time, 4 teams went to the Super Bowl and 5 others made the playoffs. Only the Saints didn't make the playoffs. There goes your "winning teams don't throw for 5000 yards". Maybe you shouldn't get your info from the streets?!

 

Brees threw for 5000 and the Saints were 8-8 and lost six games by less than a TD. Injuries had alot to do with it. Colston, McAllister, Bush, Shockey, the team couldn't get in a consistant rhythem!

 

Seriously, nice try though

[jdon 28]

Brees threw for 5000 and the Saints were 8-8 and lost six games by less than a TD. Injuries had alot to do with it. Colston, McAllister, Bush, Shockey, the team couldn't get in a consistant rhythem!

 

Seriously, nice try though

 

you draft how you want to draft, I'll draft how I want to... maybe I didn't make my point eloquently enough so I'll just agree to disagee and say that quite simply Brees numbers were so high this year because 1. the saints had no run game 2. most games the saints were either trailing or leading by a little and therefore throwing all game 3. I expect Brees to post numbers 4000 passing and 27-32 touchdowns and this does not, in my oppinion equal all that much more than brady(or cassell), manning, rivers, rodgers, warner, Romo, and maybe even culter could produce. Therefore I will wait on quarterbacks and Brees will go sooner than he should, in my opinion...

you show me the person who took brady or manning, or whomever anyone else had in the first round, last year and 9 times out of 10 I will show you someone who lost alot...

 

the only thing I will add is that brees played against the AFC west and NFC north last season, not exactly the best pass defenses (some might say an advantage to the quarterback). This year they play the NFC and AFC east divisions and will face, what I perceives to be, stronger pass defenses... fortunately they do get a gift in the rams and lions as their 'random 2' games.

[listen2me 23 1,542]

Brandon Marshall should be above a couple of the guys you have. Roddy and Ronnie Brown come to mind. Marshall is a stud and will get better each year, same with Cutler.

[Fumbleweed 426]

Brandon Marshall should be above a couple of the guys you have. Roddy and Ronnie Brown come to mind. Marshall is a stud and will get better each year, same with Cutler.

 

You may be right. The coaching change there concerns me a little....

[akaoni 0]

You may be right. The coaching change there concerns me a little....

 

Not to mention Marshall's 2cent head.

 

It's not that I'm down on Marshall, I drafted him last year and will again if he falls to me at the correct value. But, I don't think he necessarily rates better than Brown or White. He's an incredible talent, no doubt. But he has too many mental lapses which lead to dropped balls, poorly run routes, and bad off field decisions. Add to that a coaching change and Royal's emergence and I think Marshall's targets will decrease and therefore his value will drop just a bit. Still, a solid WR who should go around the turn of the 2nd/3rd where Fumble's projecting him.

[De Novo 0]

I think the QBs are all way too high. I wouldn't even draft Brees until the mid-4th round or later. And that's in a 6 point per passing TD league. Just my opinion. Otherwise, it's pretty good evolving list.

Brees is the closest thing to a sure thing at the QB position. Would you rather spend a 2nd rounder on a RB who will outscore a 4th round RB by 2 points per game (if he even pans out) or a QB like Brees who will outscore a 4th round QB by 3 points per game?

[Gepetto 988]

Brees is the closest thing to a sure thing at the QB position. Would you rather spend a 2nd rounder on a RB who will outscore a 4th round RB by 2 points per game (if he even pans out) or a QB like Brees who will outscore a 4th round QB by 3 points per game?

 

Obviously the Running Back, but I don't think your numbers are accurate. I think there is a bigger gap (point differential) between the running backs. Also, I don't want to take a QB as early as the 4th round either. So in the 1st 4 rounds at least I want RBs and WRs.

[Fumbleweed 426]

Obviously the Running Back, but I don't think your numbers are accurate. I think there is a bigger gap (point differential) between the running backs. Also, I don't want to take a QB as early as the 4th round either. So in the 1st 4 rounds at least I want RBs and WRs.

 

That's a fairly narrow strategy. Just sayin'...

[Gepetto 988]

That's a fairly narrow strategy. Just sayin'...

 

I've suceeded getting a top 3 QB every year and drafted them in the 5th round or later (usually later).

2005 Carson Palmer 7th round

2006 Michael Vick (traded Addai who was a rookie and on my bench)

2007 Tony Romo in 2 leagues (round 5, round 7)

2008 Kurt Warner (free agent)

2008 Jay Cutler (7th round)

 

As for RBs/WRs I've had stronger teams when I draft 2 RBs and 2 WRs in the first 4 rounds.

[Cuse9 128]

you draft how you want to draft, I'll draft how I want to... maybe I didn't make my point eloquently enough so I'll just agree to disagee and say that quite simply Brees numbers were so high this year because 1. the saints had no run game 2. most games the saints were either trailing or leading by a little and therefore throwing all game 3. I expect Brees to post numbers 4000 passing and 27-32 touchdowns and this does not, in my oppinion equal all that much more than brady(or cassell), manning, rivers, rodgers, warner, Romo, and maybe even culter could produce. Therefore I will wait on quarterbacks and Brees will go sooner than he should, in my opinion...

you show me the person who took brady or manning, or whomever anyone else had in the first round, last year and 9 times out of 10 I will show you someone who lost alot...

 

the only thing I will add is that brees played against the AFC west and NFC north last season, not exactly the best pass defenses (some might say an advantage to the quarterback). This year they play the NFC and AFC east divisions and will face, what I perceives to be, stronger pass defenses... fortunately they do get a gift in the rams and lions as their 'random 2' games.

 

1. Your Tom Brady arguement is terrible. It has nothing do with his lack of performance why teams did bad, it has to do with injury. There is absolutely no difference between a QB or a running back that gets hurt that you drafted in the first round. In fact if you took Brady in the first round you had a better chance of doing well over a team that took a running back in the first round and went down to injury. In the future if you want to use an example of a QB in the first round you should use Brees. You can never use a guy who was injured as an example, cause any player that gets hurt isn't going to help yo.

 

**I took Brady in the first round of two drafts last year. I had the #1 overall. I won one league and got third in the other. I also took Brees in the first round of two other leagues. I won one and got third in the other, but regular season I was #1 with the most points scored. I enjoy people who refuse to take

 

2. Your arguement goes back and forth. You talk about fantasy and then real life football. I was simply responding telling you that teams that throw for alot of yards can still win in real football.

 

3. Yes, we can agree to disagree. Everyone has different strategies and I'm guessing they've all worked and fallen apart. I'm sure you do well in your leagues as I do in mine. I think we can agree that your first few rounds are not that important anyway, it's what you do with your middle round picks that make the biggest difference.

[Fumbleweed 426]

I've suceeded getting a top 3 QB every year and drafted them in the 5th round or later (usually later).

2005 Carson Palmer 7th round

2006 Michael Vick (traded Addai who was a rookie and on my bench)

2007 Tony Romo in 2 leagues (round 5, round 7)

2008 Kurt Warner (free agent)

2008 Jay Cutler (7th round)

 

As for RBs/WRs I've had stronger teams when I draft 2 RBs and 2 WRs in the first 4 rounds.

 

I don't doubt your success. My argument is not a personal one. I just think you've adopted a somewhat narrow strategy, but obviously, it's one that has worked for you.

 

Kudos to you for drafting QB so well in later rounds.

[De Novo 0]

Obviously the Running Back, but I don't think your numbers are accurate. I think there is a bigger gap (point differential) between the running backs. Also, I don't want to take a QB as early as the 4th round either. So in the 1st 4 rounds at least I want RBs and WRs.

WRs have a much lower reward/risk ratio than other positions. Ask all the guys who took Braylon Edwards, TO, others who scraped 8-10 points per game. That can be found on waivers, a lot of times. I would rather take the sure points at QB and win my league with lower-round picks than try to gamble to win in the first 4 rounds when I don't need to.

[Yippie Skippy 0]

I would pick Peyton Manning before I would pick LaDainian Tomlinson. Mainly for the reason that I think that Peyton has a higher chance of being healthy in weeks 14, 15, 16 in my ff playoffs. Maybe LT will be healthy, but I can almost count on Peyton to make it through next season. I also do not think that LT's ceiling is high enough anymore to justify not taking an almost guaranteed top five ff QB next year. Peyton has a very realistic chance to be the #1 ff QB again. I don't think that LT can be the #1 RB again.

[Little Big Head 6]

I think you will be seeing Calvin, AJ and Fitz going in a lot of 1st rds of PPR leagues this year

[Fumbleweed 426]

I think you will be seeing Calvin, AJ and Fitz going in a lot of 1st rds of PPR leagues this year

 

Agree on AJ and Fitz, but Calvin Johnson's reception totals weren't great last year. I actually think he's more valuable in a non-PPR league.

[akaoni 0]

I would pick Peyton Manning before I would pick LaDainian Tomlinson. Mainly for the reason that I think that Peyton has a higher chance of being healthy in weeks 14, 15, 16 in my ff playoffs. Maybe LT will be healthy, but I can almost count on Peyton to make it through next season. I also do not think that LT's ceiling is high enough anymore to justify not taking an almost guaranteed top five ff QB next year. Peyton has a very realistic chance to be the #1 ff QB again. I don't think that LT can be the #1 RB again.

 

While I don't think Peyton's ceiling is as high as it once was, I think that his consistency over the years gives him added value. Looking at his stats over the last 5 years makes it pretty clear that you're almost guarenteed 4000 yards and around 30 TDs. While that might not make him the top fantasy QB, you rarely have to worry about Peyton producing. For me, this fact bumps his draft value up to the around the 2nd or 3rd round. Can you match or exceed his production with a later round pick? Sure, but you also take the chance of dealing with QB problems all season. Let's face it, for every Kurt Warner drafted there's going to be a Marc Bulger. If you roll the dice and crap out, you'll likely be playing the frustrating game of musical QBs all year. With Peyton, that concern is greatly decreased...

[Little Big Head 6]

Agree on AJ and Fitz, but Calvin Johnson's reception totals weren't great last year. I actually think he's more valuable in a non-PPR league.

I think you have to take into consideration his upside. In his 2nd year with a terrible offense and poor QB play he posted 78rec 1331yds and 12 TDs, which Ill gladly take in PPR compared to other rd1 possibilities. I dont see any reason to think those numbers will go down. Id gamble on him in rd1 for the simple fact that I think his ceiling is ridiculous. I think as we see more mocks closer to draft time the trend in PPR will have those 3 WRs in a lot of 1st rds. I can tell by the trade value in dynastys leagues right now that those 3 WRs are worth more than pretty much any RB not named Adrian Peterson. Personaly, I have Calvin and Fitz as 1a and 1b as the most valuable dynasty league commodity

[Me_2006 14]

Overall a good list. You know we disagree about QBs that early and the risk involved in a drop off in their numbers.

 

 

Other than that, I think the questions about Warner, Boldin, and the loss of the O-coordinator at LEAST equal the positive bump from Fitz's playoff run. So I don't see how he moves up.

[MTSkiBum 1,594]

No one else is curious why Steven Jackson is so high? He had 1 good season, and that was 3 seasons ago.

[Me_2006 14]

No one else is curious why Steven Jackson is so high? He had 1 good season, and that was 3 seasons ago.

Big, young, talented feature back with good hands. He's had some big games, just can't stay healthy to have a monster season.