**NCAA Basketball Bubble Talk- 2/10**

[Fumbleweed 555]

This week is our second Bubble Talk for this February. It's just a good way for those of us who love college basketball to discuss the drama between now and Selection Sunday, which takes place in exactly 33 days. Here are my projections as of today...obviously, a lot will change between now and 33 days from now, but the analysis is a process, so here goes:

 

Conferences that only have a shot at one bid (12): America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy, Mid-Eastern, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southland, SWAC.

 

ACC (6): Duke, North Carolina, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State, Virginia Tech

 

Florida State's surge this week gets them in for now and Virginia Tech barely beats out Boston College and Miami for the sixth bid. Last week, I had the ACC down for five bids, but I think in the end, this is actually going to be a six bid league. Too many good teams to have anything less. For now, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Miami, and Boston College appear to be fighting for the sixth bid...but things can change.

 

Atlantic Ten (2): Xavier, Dayton

 

Xavier is obviously the class of this conference and an NCAA tournament lock. Dayton is looking good, too, with 20 wins already in the bag with four weeks of the regular season still left to play. If the A-10 is to get a third bid, someone will have to get hot- Rhode Island, Temple, and St. Joseph's are the candidates for that. For now, though...this would be a two-bid league.

 

Big East (7): Connecticut, Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia

 

I've bumped Providence out this week after they lost two games to move back onto the bubble at best. Cincinnati is on the verge of earning a spot in the projected field with a strong run of late. West Virginia needs to be careful. They have a top twenty RPI, but they're 5-6 in the conference. They need to finish solidly to secure their spot. The first five teams listed here are pretty much locks...and Syracuse looks good for now, too, but their late seasons swoons in recent years are well-documented, so we'll see.

 

Big 12 (4): Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas

 

You've got the "big three" in OU, Kansas, and Missouri...and then you've got a big mess. Texas stays in the field for now, but they are just narrowly getting in at this point and need to right their ship this week. Kansas State and Nebraska are surging and are getting closer to consideration. Oklahoma State has better computer numbers/RPI than those two teams, but can't be counted in due to the way they've played in conference so far. This conference is pretty much a mess and a lot is yet to be determined.

 

Big Ten (5): Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota, Ohio State

 

There's still a good chance that the Big Ten ends up with six bids come March, but for this week, I've bumped out Penn State much like I bumped out Providence. Both have good conference marks still, but their poor SOS's and RPIs are cause for concern. Ohio State really improved its case this past week and is looking much safer at the moment. Wisconsin and Michigan aren't out of it yet...they just need to get on a winning streak.

 

Colonial (1-2): Virginia Commenwealth/Northeastern/George Mason

 

In order for the Colonial to get a second possible bid, one of the three teams above needs to separate itself from the other two by winning nearly all of their remaining games. George Mason is the longest shot of the three, but has the biggest name which never hurts. At the very least, one of these teams should be in and the other two be considered for the NIT.

 

Conference USA (1-2): Memphis

 

As has been the case the last few years, C-USA is Memphis and then a bunch of NIT-caliber teams. It is becoming conceivable that a second team could rise up and become NCAA tournament-worthy or that a second team could win the conference tournament...but for right now, it's likely to be Memphis only unless the second scenario becomes real in mid-March. One team that may be emerging, however, is UAB. Their computer numbers are good...they just need to be the clear-cut #2 team in the league when the standings go final to have a good shot.

 

Horizon (1-2): Butler

 

Butler's a lock for the tourney, so it's probably just a matter of whether or not they win the conference tournament in determining how many bids the Horizon holds. Wisconsin-Green Bay is a solid team also and could make a run at a second bid before it's all said and done.

 

Metro Atlantic (1-2): Siena

 

Siena has an RPI in the 20s and is 12-1 in this conference, so they are looking like an at-large team to me right now if they keep winning. Another loss or two in the regular season could really damage that. Niagara has a solid team, too, but will need to win out and then lose to Siena in the conference tourney final to get an at-large look.

 

Mid-American (1-2): Buffalo/Miami-Ohio

 

The Mid-American isn't what it once was, and this is probably a one-bid league...but Buffalo and Miami-Ohio have top 65 RPIs and are the class of the conference so far. If one were to get hot and go 6-1 down the regular season stretch, talk of an at-large berth could pick up.

 

Missouri Valley (1-2): Northern Iowa/Illinois State/Creighton

 

The MVC has gotten multiple bids a lot in recent years, but this crop of teams lacks a true power hitter. Northern Iowa has a great conference record...Illinois St. was great out of conference...in the end, it may be one bid and done for the MVC this year, but with more than a month to go before the conference tourney, one of the above three teams could get hot and get into a more serious conversation. Creighton has been the hottest team of the three of late.

 

Mountain West (3): Utah, San Diego State, Brigham Young

 

So, where are all those former MVC and C-USA bids going? Right here. The Mountain West is threatening to become a BCS conference in both football and basketball and while this list got narrowed to three teams this week, the conference is solid. Don't be stunned in March if four slip into the tourney. For now, UNLV drops out as the other three teams strengthened their case. The Runnin' Rebels need finish strong to get back into the mix.

 

Pac-10 (5): UCLA, Washington, California, Arizona State, USC

 

UCLA and Washington remain the class of the league, but Cal and Arizona State also strengthened their cases this past week and are looking solid at the moment. USC is one of my last teams in for now...they need to keep winning. Arizona is getting back into the mix as well...they're worth keeping an eye on the next couple of weeks.

 

SEC (4): Louisiana State, Florida, South Carolina, Tennessee

 

It pains me greatly to continue to leave my beloved Wildcats out of the mix for the moment...but I don't think the SEC is strong enough to get five bids this year and Tennessee's RPI is very good despite the head-to-head loss to Kentucky. It was a very good week also for Mississippi State and they would get in before Kentucky at the moment. None of the above teams are truly "safe" at this point...it's a crapshoot in the SEC and much is left to be determined.

 

Southern (1-2): Davidson

 

Davidson's loss to Charleston this past week takes them out of the "lock" category, but they likely won't get left out in spite of that, so the bubble teams elsewhere will simply have to hope for a Davidson win in the conference tourney as that would keep this a one-bid league.

 

Summit (1-2): North Dakota State

 

A big-time at-large longshot whose only chance is to win out from here and lose in a close conference tourney final.

 

Sun Belt (1-2): Arkansas-Little Rock/Western Kentucky

 

Almost certainly a one-bid league, but the top two teams bear a little bit of watching in case one can win out from here.

 

West Coast (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary's

 

Looked like a sure-fire two bid league until St. Mary's lost their top scorer and began their freefall. Now, they need to jump back over top of Portland in the standings to secure a second league bid. This is a good conference and I think the two bids will eventually come....but it's getting dicey.

 

WAC (1-2): Utah State

 

Utah State is on fire and an at-large berth looks like an almost sure thing at this point. A second bid from the WAC can only come if Utah State doesn't win the conference tourney.

 

Top Sixteen Seeds (as of today):

 

#1- Duke, Connecticut, North Carolina, Oklahoma

#2- Pittsburgh, Xavier, Louisville, Michigan State

#3- Wake Forest, Memphis, Clemson, UCLA

#4- Kansas, Butler, Marquette, Illinois

[posty 2,844]

West Virginia needs to be careful. They have a top twenty RPI, but they're 5-6 in the conference. They need to finish solidly to secure their spot.

 

The only thing that might help them is that they still play Rutgers, South Florida and DePaul... Those should be wins, but with the Big East, you never know...

 

If they do win those games, they would be 19-8, 8-6 with games against Villanova, Notre Dame, Louisville at home and Cincinnati on the road... One win out of those would give you a 20-win season and a .500 record...

 

But they need to win those three games that they need to win or they might be headed to the NIT, especially since they have lost 4 of 6... The only saving thing was that those were ranked teams (Pitt x 2, Louisville and Syracuse and 3 of them on the road)...

[cmh6476 1,153]

does ku get 2 home games in kansas city as a #4 seed?

[listen2me 23 1,959]

From a homer viewpoint.

 

Buffalo is playing well, the offense is struggling but that should heat up soon. They play great team D and rebound well for a smaller team. I could see them getting an at large bid if they fumble away the conf.

 

Syracuse is such a streaky team. Each year they play like crap for a long stretch and wonder why they aren't in the tourney. They have the talent, but they have no discipline and that is strange with having such a good coach. I don't understand it, they were hot at the start and I really thought they could be a force in the tournement. Now I'm not sure they will make it in the end. They can beat anyone or lose to anyone.

 

Real shame with the talent they have on that team. Flynn will go to the NBA after this season.

[Fumbleweed 555]

The only thing that might help them is that they still play Rutgers, South Florida and DePaul... Those should be wins, but with the Big East, you never know...

 

If they do win those games, they would be 19-8, 8-6 with games against Villanova, Notre Dame, Louisville at home and Cincinnati on the road... One win out of those would give you a 20-win season and a .500 record...

 

But they need to win those three games that they need to win or they might be headed to the NIT, especially since they have lost 4 of 6... The only saving thing was that those were ranked teams (Pitt x 2, Louisville and Syracuse and 3 of them on the road)...

 

West Virginia will get in with a .500 record in conference. I think they beat all three of the weaker Big East teams...so I think they're going to be fine. I was just pointing out that they can't allow for one of those three games to get away from them.

[Fumbleweed 555]

does ku get 2 home games in kansas city as a #4 seed?

 

It's possible...way too soon to say.

[craphouse rats 0]

It's possible...way too soon to say.

 

Does it really matter? They have crapped the bed at the Sprint Center so far this year.

[cortezthekiller303 0]

The only thing that might help them is that they still play Rutgers, South Florida and DePaul... Those should be wins, but with the Big East, you never know...

 

If they do win those games, they would be 19-8, 8-6 with games against Villanova, Notre Dame, Louisville at home and Cincinnati on the road... One win out of those would give you a 20-win season and a .500 record...

 

But they need to win those three games that they need to win or they might be headed to the NIT, especially since they have lost 4 of 6... The only saving thing was that those were ranked teams (Pitt x 2, Louisville and Syracuse and 3 of them on the road)...

 

Great analysis. Its obvious you follow WVU. Given the difficulty teams have of playing in Morgantown, I think its not out of the question to believe that WVU could beat Nova, ND or even UL at home, especially with the great game (well second half) they turned in against Louisville a couple weekends ago on the road. Unfortunately, the absence of Mazzula really shows, and there might not be a solution for that this year, though Ebanks is coming on of late. Cincy might be a nice barometer as to where this team is and how they will fare in NYC come tournament time, and I think that will be a great game.

[Fumbleweed 555]

Kentucky may have saved their season last night. Depends some on whether or not Patterson's injury is serious.

[The Moz 72]

Kentucky may have saved their season last night. Depends some on whether or not Patterson's injury is serious.

 

 

NO they didn't -- they would need to finish the SEC with 1 more loss only. Sorry but Meeks can only play like that so often.

 

Barney was a focking moron choosing Gillespie over Calapari

[Durtee 0]

How many games do you guys think that Michigan has to win in order to get in? 5-7 in the conference and 15-10 overall, but beating UCLA, Duke and giving UConn a run for their money has to count for something. Obviously if they would have beat MSU last night, then it would have helped their case. They have 6 games left and the majority are very winnable IMO.

 

@NW

vs Minn

@Iowa

vs Purdue #23

@Wis

@Minn

[Cuse9 131]

If Syracuse don't win about all of their remaining games and make it to the semi finals of the Big East Tourney, they're out. As a diehard Cuse fan, I've seen it before. For whatever reason the committee hates Syracuse.

 

Michigan. How in the hell can you beat UCLA and Duke and not make the tourney?! Well, Michigan is about to show us.

[cortezthekiller303 0]

How many games do you guys think that Michigan has to win in order to get in? 5-7 in the conference and 15-10 overall, but beating UCLA, Duke and giving UConn a run for their money has to count for something. Obviously if they would have beat MSU last night, then it would have helped their case. They have 6 games left and the majority are very winnable IMO.

 

They needed to win or play close last night against MSU, and instead they got focking woodshedded. I dont see them getting in, but who knows.

[patweisers44 871]

How many games do you guys think that Michigan has to win in order to get in? 5-7 in the conference and 15-10 overall, but beating UCLA, Duke and giving UConn a run for their money has to count for something. Obviously if they would have beat MSU last night, then it would have helped their case. They have 6 games left and the majority are very winnable IMO.

if they go 4-2 the rest of the way you are looking at 19-12 and 9-9 and something like a #6 seed in the big ten tourney. Despite the couple big wins, i still think they are on the outside looking in, unless most of the conferences that deserve one or two bids get one or two bids (no conf. tourney upsets) and then they'd have to make a run to the finals of the Big Ten tourney to even get in the conversation..IMO.

[KSB2424 3,174]

T-Minus 52 minutes until the Tar Heels dismantle Dook, in Cameron, for the 4th straight year. Further cementing the #1 seed in the East.

[Me_2006 14]

Barney was a focking moron choosing Gillespie over Calapari

If you wanna be on probation, maybe.

[posty 2,844]

Nice WVU win last night... As long as they don't choke against the 3 teams that they should beat, I think that they are in the tourney now...

[ZeroTolerance 584]

I'm too busy between work/clinical rotation/school to do my usual mass data dropping this season, but I will try to offer some opinions/info when I can. For today...

 

Virginia Tech at Maryland - The Hokies are in fairly good position right now at 6-3 in the ACC, but with the string of games ahead (2 vs FSU, Duke, UNC, @Clemson) a loss to the Terps could put significant pressure on a VT team whose best non-conference win came on a neutral court against Fairfield.

 

Maryland 83, Virginia Tech 73 - The pressure is on for the Hokies these next two weeks after a weak loss to the Terrapins. With 5 straight games against teams currently in the projected field following a trip to Virginia, the Hokies have their work cut out for them.

 

Nebraska at Missouri - The Huskers threw their hat in the ring with the win over Texas last week, but have plenty of work to do before they can be considered a legitimate at-large candidate. Going to Missouri and completing a season sweep would be a large step in the right direction. Nebraska's best non-conference win came over Creighton at home, and their RPI (67) and 3 losses to sub-100 teams are very weak for an at-large.

 

Missouri 70, Nebraska 47 - Ugh. Not only did the Huskers blow another chance for a quality win, but they get plastered by Mizzou in the process. At 15-7 overall and 5-4 in the Big XII, Nebraska isn't dead, but they aren't far from it either.

 

Kansas at Kansas St - The Wildcats are riding momentum as in-state rival Kansas heads to Manhattan. Much like Nebraska, K-State has a poor RPI (66) and a lack of non-conference scalps (best win: @Cleveland St) but are on a 6 game win streak and boast a 3-2 mark vs the top 50.

 

Kansas 85, Kansas St 74 - K-State blew a large lead and remains in the middle of the bubble mess. With 5 D-1 games remaining, the Wildcats will likely need to win 4 at a minimum.

 

Texas Tech at Baylor - This may be an early elimination game as both teams are sinking to the bottom of the Big XII. A&M has non-conference wins over Arizona and LSU, as well as a win over Baylor. The Bears, meanwhile, are on life-support at best, with a crippling 3-7 conference record and 2-8 mark vs the top 50. If Baylor can manage a split with the Aggies, they will have 5 winnable games to finish out the season, but as it stands, anything less than a 5-1 stretch in their final 6 is likely to keep them out of the field.

 

Baylor 72, Texas A&M 68 - Baylor clings to at-large life with the win over the Aggies. The outlook is still grim for the Bears, with the 2-8 mark vs the top 50 and 4-7 conference record, but it could be worse..they could be in A&M's position: 3-7 in the Big XII and 2-4 on the road.

 

Georgetown at Syracuse - If the Hoyas are going to avoid one of the biggest disappointments of the season, they will need to take care of business starting at the Carrier Dome today. While their RPI (36) and big-name wins (Memphis, @UConn) are excellent bargaining chips, the 4-7 conference mark and 11th place position are deal breakers. With a killer stretch ahead (Marquette, Louisville, @Villanova) G'Town cannot afford any more losses.

 

Syracuse 98, Georgetown 94 - Georgetown made a valiant comeback effort only to let the game slip away in overtime. At 4-8 in conference, the Hoyas hopes have likely ended.

 

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh - The Bearcats have surprisingly pushed their way ahead of teams like Notre Dame and Georgetown in the scramble for the last bids from the Big East with a nice 5-1 stretch and 7-5 conference mark. Wins over UAB and at UNLV are solid, but Cincy has yet to post a W on any of the top teams in the conference (0-3 vs UConn/Marquette/Villanova, no games played against Louisville, WVU, Syracuse, Pitt). An upset win over Pitt today would be a big step in the right direction, and with USF and Seton Hall to finish the year could guarantee them 10 wins in the Big East.

 

Pittsburgh 85, Cincinnati 69 - The Bearcats couldn't pull off the upset as they are handled by a superior Pitt team. The Bearcats need at least 10 wins in conference to have a case which means they must win at least one of their next 3 (Louisville/WVU/@Syracuse).

[ZeroTolerance 584]

Minnesota at Penn St - The first of two bubble battles in the Big Ten today. Minnesota is in good position right now with a 7-5 conference mark and 4 top 50 wins (including a neutral court victory over Louisville). Penn St, on the other hand, is running out of chances, and with 3 losses in a row already is likely one defeat away from elimination.

 

Penn St 68, Minnesota 63 - Important win for the Lions to stay in the at-large picture. At 7-6 in the Big Ten with zero quality non-conference wins to their credit they have a great deal of work left, but they aren't dead.

 

Ohio St at Wisconsin - The Buckeyes are in very good shape right now with an 4-5 mark vs the top 100 and a 7-4 Big Ten record. The Badgers have a deceiving RPI (30) thanks in part to their 5th ranked SOS but a 2-7 mark vs those top teams they played. With games left against Ohio St, and at Minnesota and Michigan St, the opportunities to correct this are there, but they must get the job done.

 

UCLA at Arizona - After an ugly 2-5 start to conference play, the Wildcats suddenly came to life with a 6 game winning streak. A 2-6 road mark will certainly turn off the committee, but 5 top 50 wins (including Kansas, and a neutral court win over Gonzaga) along with a top 4 finish in the Pac-10 would be more than enough to get them in.

 

Arizona 84, UCLA 72 - Arizona is on the good side of the bubble. 5 top 50 wins, 7 wins in a row, and 8-5 in the Pac-10.

 

Portland at St Mary's - The Gaels have another opportunity to attempt to escape from what has been a nightmare start to the new year. What was once a near-lock resume has become a borderline bubble record with losses in 4 of their last 5 since the injury to Patty Mills. While the committee will certainly take Mills' absence into account (as long as he returns in time), there is only so much lenience they will grant for an injury. If St Mary's can't win their final 4 and make a deep run in the WCC tournament, they won't be dancing in March.

 

 

In other action...

 

South Carolina avoids a damaging loss by holding off Alabama, but Florida can't say the same after an embarassing loss at previously winless in SEC play Georgia. Texas continues playing with fire, going to overtime against a 1-9 Colorado team before escaping with the win.

[listen2me 23 1,959]

If Syracuse don't win about all of their remaining games and make it to the semi finals of the Big East Tourney, they're out. As a diehard Cuse fan, I've seen it before. For whatever reason the committee hates Syracuse.

 

Michigan. How in the hell can you beat UCLA and Duke and not make the tourney?! Well, Michigan is about to show us.

 

As a Cuse fan I get tired of them whining about not getting in. Play Better! They have the talent but lack what it takes to play real basketball. They just almost blew the Georgetown game. GU sucks. They need to quit playing as a bubble team and eliminate any chance of not getting selected.

 

It is their own fault everytime.

[ZeroTolerance 584]

There is something about coaches coming out of West Virginia...they have a system, they run their system, even if they don't have any players who fit their system. How many teams do you know that hoist 26.4 3's per game even though they only shoot 31%?