Jetdoc 20 Posted June 2, 2009 Draft is proceeding pretty typical for the first day.... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fumbleweed 545 Posted June 2, 2009 And the run on running backs continues... Like remote said, I think Westbrook was a pretty darn good value here. He'd be more valuable in a PPR league obviously, but he's still valuable in this format for at least one, maybe two more years. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
remote controller 143 Posted June 2, 2009 I was ready for Westy to drop anytime after pick 3 or 4. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jetdoc 20 Posted June 2, 2009 So, how does everyone feel about Slaton this year? Does he continue to be the man in Houston, or is it a bit scary picking a Texan this early? I personally am high on him, but I've been seeing him creep up the draftboard. I wouldn't be surprised to see him as a 1st rounder by true draft time...which seems incredibly risky. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Vikings4ever 550 Posted June 2, 2009 So, how does everyone feel about Slaton this year? Does he continue to be the man in Houston, or is it a bit scary picking a Texan this early? I personally am high on him, but I've been seeing him creep up the draftboard. I wouldn't be surprised to see him as a 1st rounder by true draft time...which seems incredibly risky. I was considering him with one of my picks, before it became assured that 2 of Johnson, Westbrook, and DeAngelo Wiliams would be available. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fumbleweed 545 Posted June 2, 2009 So, how does everyone feel about Slaton this year? Does he continue to be the man in Houston, or is it a bit scary picking a Texan this early? I personally am high on him, but I've been seeing him creep up the draftboard. I wouldn't be surprised to see him as a 1st rounder by true draft time...which seems incredibly risky. It's all about the goal line carries for me with him. I'm convinced he can be an every down runner and both run between the tackles and explode (obviously) to the outside. If they're going to give him the ball inside the 5-yard line, I'm sold on him in a big way. But, that's the difficulty. Kinda like Westbrook. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ace08 11 Posted June 2, 2009 So, how does everyone feel about Slaton this year? Does he continue to be the man in Houston, or is it a bit scary picking a Texan this early? I personally am high on him, but I've been seeing him creep up the draftboard. I wouldn't be surprised to see him as a 1st rounder by true draft time...which seems incredibly risky. I think you're right on both counts. He most probably will be a "consensus" first round pick by late August and he will be a high risk player. Personally I like Slaton as an early 2nd round pick this year. Chris Brown will probably get hurting brushing his teeth and there really is no competition on the roster to speak of. He's got a good QB and a great receiver that will keep opposing defenses from stacking the box. Obviously Slaton becomes more valuable in PPR leagues but I still think he'll do well in this format. The scary thing there is that both the QB and WR on that team themselves have been injury risks in recent years...and losing either would most definitely effect him. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Vikings4ever 550 Posted June 2, 2009 I think you're right on both counts. He most probably will be a "consensus" first round pick by late August and he will be a high risk player. Personally I like Slaton as an early 2nd round pick this year. Chris Brown will probably get hurting brushing his teeth and there really is no competition on the roster to speak of. He's got a good QB and a great receiver that will keep opposing defenses from stacking the box. Obviously Slaton becomes more valuable in PPR leagues but I still think he'll do well in this format. The scary thing there is that both the QB and WR on that team themselves have been injury risks in recent years...and losing either would most definitely effect him. Johnson missed 7 games in 07, and 3 in 05. Not someone who misses a few games every year (like Westbrook). I wouldn't say he's a much bigger risk than any other player. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jetdoc 20 Posted June 2, 2009 e-mail sent to robb. He's been here all day so I expect he'll come back in a bit. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
robb 81 Posted June 2, 2009 Give me 5-10 minutes, at work, will be right back!! (Board meeting....guess that comes first if I want a paycheck) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fumbleweed 545 Posted June 2, 2009 I can't tell you how much I would love to have Andre Johnson at the 2.04 spot. What a great pick-up for patriots... I have Johnson as my #2 WR and he's very close to #1. Just a terrific find at that spot, IMO. I was surprised Calvin went before he did. Calvin's a beast...but he's also a Lion. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Vikings4ever 550 Posted June 2, 2009 I can't tell you how much I would love to have Andre Johnson at the 2.04 spot. What a great pick-up for patriots... I have Johnson as my #2 WR and he's very close to #1. Just a terrific find at that spot, IMO. I was surprised Calvin went before he did. Calvin's a beast...but he's also a Lion. Going into the draft, I was projecting myself to take him and Slaton. Obviously things worked out differently, but Andre at 2.04 is a good value. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
robb 81 Posted June 2, 2009 You could guess this would happen. I had 4 running backs in mind for my second round selection, with 4 picks ahead of me. And, all 4 went!!! So.....left with a choice between a 3rd Tier RB, a top tier QB or a high WR. I said to myself, "self, take a WR". Then, which one? Sure I liked both Johnsons (no jokes here please!). A. or C.? A. Johnson has a very good QB, good team, great RB to compliment him...and a great selection at 2.03! C. Johnson is a monster, a true Megatron. I honestly believe that with the rookies they drafted, another year of Smith at RB and Culpepper who can still throw a good long ball means C. Johnson could have a dynamic year. Almost a toss up, but I like C. Johnson's upside more than Andre,......so C. Johnson is is! One can second-guess this pick all year, but we won't know until December who will be better. I would appreciate feedback from you all so I can make the best decision come my "real drafts". Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fumbleweed 545 Posted June 2, 2009 You could guess this would happen.I had 4 running backs in mind for my second round selection, with 4 picks ahead of me. And, all 4 went!!! So.....left with a choice between a 3rd Tier RB, a top tier QB or a high WR. I said to myself, "self, take a WR". Then, which one? Sure I liked both Johnsons (no jokes here please!). A. or C.? A. Johnson has a very good QB, good team, great RB to compliment him...and a great selection at 2.03! C. Johnson is a monster, a true Megatron. I honestly believe that with the rookies they drafted, another year of Smith at RB and Culpepper who can still throw a good long ball means C. Johnson could have a dynamic year. Almost a toss up, but I like C. Johnson's upside more than Andre,......so C. Johnson is is! One can second-guess this pick all year, but we won't know until December who will be better. I would appreciate feedback from you all so I can make the best decision come my "real drafts". If you're going to pick Calvin over Andre, this is almost certainly the format to do it. Andre will probably catch at least 20-25 more balls than Calvin. But, if receptions are not part of the equation...if we're just talking yards and TDs, an argument for Calvin can definitely be made. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
robb 81 Posted June 2, 2009 NO point per reception, NO subtraction for fumbles. Per the rules for this draft above, then Calvin is as good a choice as Andre. Other thoughts guys?? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Vikings4ever 550 Posted June 2, 2009 NO point per reception, NO subtraction for fumbles. Per the rules for this draft above, then Calvin is as good a choice as Andre. Other thoughts guys?? Andre's safer due to his surrounding talent, but Calvin has a bigger upside. So take your pick. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JScott 20 Posted June 2, 2009 You guys suck, I was hoping someone would make one reach pick to push one of the Johnsons or Slaton down to me... Ok, at a restaurant with the family, will have to rethink this and get back on line in a bit as I have no list with me.. Sorry for the delay (but it's your own faults due to the solif picks) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Da Bomb 0 Posted June 2, 2009 ive always been a monster AJ fan but theres no way id take him over calvin. he just doesnt put up the TDs cal does. i mean, the guy had 12 TDs last year on an 0-16 team with no consistent qb to throw him the ball. AJ i think hit his ceiling last year. he does have nagging injuries that he doesnt play through, and im not sure hes ever going to turn into a TD machine the way moss or calvin are. the yards are great but inconsistent. he belongs at the 2nd/3rd turn for me, a great but not superstud WR. a guy i figured to have my eye on with my upcoming picks. ive been taking him in that area a couple years in a row now. love to watch that boy play. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fumbleweed 545 Posted June 2, 2009 ive always been a monster AJ fan but theres no way id take him over calvin. he just doesnt put up the TDs cal does. i mean, the guy had 12 TDs last year on an 0-16 team with no consistent qb to throw him the ball. AJ i think hit his ceiling last year. he does have nagging injuries that he doesnt play through, and im not sure hes ever going to turn into a TD machine the way moss or calvin are. the yards are great but inconsistent. he belongs at the 2nd/3rd turn for me, a great but not superstud WR. a guy i figured to have my eye on with my upcoming picks. ive been taking him in that area a couple years in a row now. love to watch that boy play. If you think he belongs at the 2/3 turn, I can assure you that he won't be on any of your teams this year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
remote controller 143 Posted June 3, 2009 I can't tell you how much I would love to have Andre Johnson at the 2.04 spot. What a great pick-up for patriots... I have Johnson as my #2 WR and he's very close to #1. Just a terrific find at that spot, IMO. I was surprised Calvin went before he did. Calvin's a beast...but he's also a Lion. ditto on AJ! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ace08 11 Posted June 3, 2009 Wow..I can't believe how some of you feel about AJ. I've watched him play since high school so I admit I have a soft spot in my heart for the kid. I'll be honest I was between AJ and Fitz at #4...that's how closely I have them rated. I forgot where I read the stat but AJ was on of the top 5 most targeted receivers in the red zone last year. I think all of us that have been watching the NFL long enough know TD's can be a flaky stat. Up one year down the next sometimes on sheer luck and good fortune. I'm projecting him to score between 12-13 TD's this year. On a pure talent basis....I'd argue he's just as good as CJ despite all the man-love for megatron on this board. Apparently I'm in the minority here but that's fine....and he hasn't reached his ceiling yet by a long shot. I fully expect a hall of fame career out of AJ continuing with another great season this year. Sky is the limit with that kid and to get him at 2.04 is just highway robbery in a 12 man draft. The only reason I took Fitz over him is the injury bug that AJ seems to have a slight case of. I'll remind everyone here of one thing....CJ will have one of the following throwing to him AGAIN this year. A) The artist formerly known as Culpepper A wet-behind-the-ears rookie. I'd argue that for all his talent...that is the ultimate "upside" limiter to any fantasy WR. AJ is the clear #2 in my eyes behind Fitz, followed closely by Moss. I have CJ rated 4th...but in all honesty all 4 are great players so in a way we're splitting hairs here. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Patriotsfatboy1 1,432 Posted June 3, 2009 Well, I was hoping that AJ would still be there at 2.04 and it happened to work out that way. If AJ had gone at 2.03, then I was considering CJ. As a former GT guy myself, I like him, but I am not sure about that offense and who will be throwing him the ball. However, I also figured that either way, I would have a pretty good WR1 at that spot. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
remote controller 143 Posted June 3, 2009 I have them 1.Moss 2. AJ 3. Fitz 4. 5. Calvin Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Da Bomb 0 Posted June 3, 2009 If you think he belongs at the 2/3 turn, I can assure you that he won't be on any of your teams this year. im banking on that, much as it breaks my heart since ive had the guy on teams for years. i make it a point to not draft guys coming off of career years. lest everyone forget, this is a guy that averaged about 1000 and 5 every year before last with a previous career high of 1150/6. people picking AJ that high are going to be disappointed. calvin could not have possibly had more things against him last year. he will be just fine. in fact, just look at last year's top fantasy WRs for a guy who did just fine with a rookie qb starting all year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Da Bomb 0 Posted June 3, 2009 i do want to add that AJ's value moves up significantly for me in a PPR format. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
remote controller 143 Posted June 3, 2009 JScott goes Moss/Brady on us! Can't have anything to do with being a Pats fan???? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fumbleweed 545 Posted June 3, 2009 JScott = Just kidding. Interesting picks...worthy of discussion. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
remote controller 143 Posted June 3, 2009 JScott = Just kidding. Interesting picks...worthy of discussion. Lightening in a Bottle II????? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Da Bomb 0 Posted June 3, 2009 im intrigued by the brady/moss combo. i actually had targetted that as a possible idea at my 2.10/3.3 picks. i didnt believe moss would last that long but thought brady would. im leaning against brady being able to come anything close to what he did two years ago. i think more along the lines of 26-30 TDs and 4000 yards is right, and im not sure that makes him worth a super high pick. i DID think fumble would draft him with his 3rd round pick though. or 2nd. or 1st. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Vikings4ever 550 Posted June 3, 2009 Brady's on my do not touch list this year. Even ignoring questions about his health, I don't see any way he's able to put up the numbers he did 2 years ago. Even if the Pats are able to recapture the magic, there's no way Belichick lets Brady continue to air it out when they're up by 30, not after losing him last year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
robb 81 Posted June 3, 2009 Brady's on my do not touch list this year. Even ignoring questions about his health, I don't see any way he's able to put up the numbers he did 2 years ago. Even if the Pats are able to recapture the magic, there's no way Belichick lets Brady continue to air it out when they're up by 30, not after losing him last year. I would not say he is on my do not touch list, but he is on my "do not touch before Round 3 list"! I am not a big proponent of drafting QBs early, especially this year as I see 9-11 QBs I would be pleased with as my starter. There are 1-3 I may consider early, but not this early. Only a philosophy. Some may disagree, but I do look at ADP and he's just too early. But, if JScott wanted him badly, he had to get him now 'cause he would not have been there at 3.08. So, no problem with his choice.....just not mine. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JScott 20 Posted June 3, 2009 With Moss already on board, below are the scenarios I planned for at 2.05 on my draft sheet... 1A. Someone reaches and either AJ, CJ or Slaton are available (no one reached) 1B. Reggie Wayne (now that FK has picked him, I can fill in his name) 1C. Brady Unfortunately I was away from my computer without my draft sheet and tried to wing it from my blackberry, sort of forgetting 1B, and entered Brady... however fftoday.com hung when I hit Add Reply so I thought the Brady pick never made it, as I couldn't get back on the site... later I get home check my sheet, realize I forgot about plan 1B and thought oh well the Brady pick didn't get posted.... so I log back on to make the Wayne selection and see that Brady did get posted... oh well, I'll adapt... --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Re: Moss/Brady ... most of you guys know me well enough that I do no mix homerism with ff, so this is only coincidence. I don't expect Brady to repeat 2007 numbers but I do still see him finishing as the top QB. The Giants took away a shot at history in 2007 and the injury took away his entire 2008 season. Brady will be out of his skull with motivation. And his WR 1-3 are now better IMO than 2007 with the addition of (______). NE still does not have a feature back, and I don't see them changing their offensive system. I respectfully disagree with V4E on BB not letting Brady air it out in the same way to protect him. Injuries happen and if you play to protect yourself you're bound to get hurt doing so. I can just see it in BB's evil mind "If we change our ways, then the fear of injury has already beaten us." or something like that. And as for the injury I don't expect Brady to light it up week 1 but the signs (trading Cassell, the doc who did the operation publicly saying Brady is way ahead on his rehab schedule, already throwing on the run, etc) are pointing to a healthy knee. In addition I did not like the RBs available any better than what I might see in a round or two. Wayne is who I originally had planned on taking based on who I thought I could get in the 3rd/4th/5th but I've already covered that above... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JScott 20 Posted June 3, 2009 im intrigued by the brady/moss combo. i actually had targetted that as a possible idea at my 2.10/3.3 picks. i didnt believe moss would last that long but thought brady would. im leaning against brady being able to come anything close to what he did two years ago. i think more along the lines of 26-30 TDs and 4000 yards is right, and im not sure that makes him worth a super high pick. i DID think fumble would draft him with his 3rd round pick though. or 2nd. or 1st. A few have mentioned Brady not repeating his 2007 numbers, and I agree, but he doesn't have to to still be the #1 QB. I project 4450/40 and don't see the other top tier QBs making it back to me in the next round. I go into every draft with a plan, but adapt as it progresses. For me each pick is weighing who I can take now at a given position and comparing it to who I think I can get at that respective position with my next pick. In this case I felt the drop off of QB value was greater than that of the RB drop off, but pretty much the same as the WR drop off. With the WR and QB drop off being equal IMO I looked ahead a few rounds and liked the availability better to pair with Moss/WR, but as mentioned I entered the wrong pick. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Da Bomb 0 Posted June 3, 2009 youre definitely right that he could take a huge dropoff and still be the #1, from two years' ago stats. but i would argue the same thing i argued all last preseason, that he will basically regress to somewhere around his career averages, maybe slightly higher due to the system but also maybe slightly lower due to injury rust. i think expecting 4500/40 is awfully high hopes. havent there been maybe like 5 QB seasons in history with those numbers? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ace08 11 Posted June 3, 2009 Solid thought process JScott.....and solid pick. I obviously don't think Brady will approach those magical numbers he did a couple years back but I do think he'll be the #1 FF QB and approach 40 TD passes. There will definitely be incremental value there at seasons end versus the #2 guy....IMO. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Da Bomb 0 Posted June 3, 2009 i think brady is a pretty good bet to end up in the top 5 qbs when you take into account his intense level of dedication and will for performing and the system he plays in. i dont know that he'll be special or stick out, but a top 5 qb is valuable either way. by the middle of the 3rd, you could certainly do much worse. im just not sure hes someone id want to be building my team around, someone who has to perform every week for my team to hit. those of you that think he's still going to throw 40 TDs this year, you ought to be taking him in the first round then. any 40 TD qb is worth at least that. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Vikings4ever 550 Posted June 3, 2009 i think expecting 4500/40 is awfully high hopes. havent there been maybe like 5 QB seasons in history with those numbers? 4. 07 Brady, 04 Manning, and 84 & 86 Marino. Warner had 41 TDs in 99, but didn't make 4500 yards. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Da Bomb 0 Posted June 3, 2009 just for S&G, take a guess at brady's career high for TD passes other than the record year, without looking obviously? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ace08 11 Posted June 3, 2009 i think brady is a pretty good bet to end up in the top 5 qbs when you take into account his intense level of dedication and will for performing and the system he plays in. i dont know that he'll be special or stick out, but a top 5 qb is valuable either way. by the middle of the 3rd, you could certainly do much worse. im just not sure hes someone id want to be building my team around, someone who has to perform every week for my team to hit. those of you that think he's still going to throw 40 TDs this year, you ought to be taking him in the first round then. any 40 TD qb is worth at least that. Not necessarily...that gets into a whole other discussion of supply/demand and incremental value at other key positions. Also....QB's in general tend to dominate the top 10 overall ff point lists at year end so while the incremental value between QB1 could be a nice gap from QB2, it's very possible QB9 or QB10 still yields a high enough aggregate point total to make it worth passing on if you're strong at the other key positions (RB/WR/TE) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JScott 20 Posted June 3, 2009 youre definitely right that he could take a huge dropoff and still be the #1, from two years' ago stats. but i would argue the same thing i argued all last preseason, that he will basically regress to somewhere around his career averages, maybe slightly higher due to the system but also maybe slightly lower due to injury rust. i think expecting 4500/40 is awfully high hopes. havent there been maybe like 5 QB seasons in history with those numbers? Sounds about right, and one of those was Brady in this same system, with virtually the same WR corp. And NE has added a few more pieces since then. Cassell put up 3700/21 last year in this system, and he was virtually a rookie. Taking that into consideration predicting 4000/30 seems real low to me for Brady ** for this system ** Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
