***Official Week 3 NFL Wagering Thread***

[kroyrunner89 0]

Week 3 Lines:

Titans +1.5 @ Jets 37

Jaguars +3.5 @ Texans 46.5

Chiefs +9 @ Eagles 41

Browns +13 @ Ravens 38.5

Giants -6.5 @ Bucs 44

Redskins -6.5 @ Lions 38

Packers -6.5 @ Rams 41

49ers +6.5 @ Vikings 40

Falcons +4 @ Patriots 46.5

Bears -1.5 @ Seahawks 37

Saints -6 @ Bills 52

Dolphins +6 @ Chargers 44

Steelers -4 @ Bengals 37

Broncos -1 @ Raiders 36

Colts +1.5 @ Cardinals 47.5

Panthers +9 @ Cowboys 47

 

Good luck this week guys!

[CLichti 0]

I'll take

 

Falcons +4

Chargers -6

Saints -5

Broncos/Raiders under 36

 

to the bank.

[MTSkiBum 1,594]

My initial leans are Lions +6.5 and Bengals +4.

[lowman 4]

Ravens. I like it big time. I think they win by 3 tds.

[nobody 2,043]

SF +7

[Laurence Maroney's Nuts 2]

Yet to think this one through, but... Titans v Jets UNDER

[Bouve 0]

How do the Bears not kill Seneca and the Seahags?

[Stewburtx8 67]

Initial thoughts...4-4 last week. Lots of dogs again.

 

Atlanta +4.5- Really like this Atlanta offense. Brady just doesn't look like he is fully back yet. Like getting more than a field goal here.

SF +7- I'm not on the Minnesota is a great team bandwagon after unimpressive wins against the Lions and Browns. Make Favre throw for once.

Jax/Hou Over 46.5- Jax secondary is like swiss cheese right now, Texans D isn't much better. Both offenses can score. Fantasy field day here.

Det +6.5- I'll keep taking them til they cover now. Wash offense is a mess. 9 points versus the Rams doesn't bode well. Campbell is terrible.

Tenny +3- Let down game for the Jets in my opinion. Tennessee is a solid team coming in off a bad loss. Think this is a good spot for them.

Cincy +4- Cincy defense looks improved this year. Carson Palmer has had success in his career against the Steelers.

Oak +2- The Raiders (besides Russell) haven't looked bad. Denver was lucky to beat Cincy and played the awful Browns.

 

Thoughts welcome. These are what I'm playing right now unless I edit it later in the week.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

be careful with the Atlanta Patriot game. Patriots will be ANGRY

 

I like Baltimore -13

Vikings -7

Bengals +4

[swirvenirvin 25]

Is there a line yet on the Philly game?

[cribdog 0]

be careful with the Atlanta Patriot game. Patriots will be ANGRY

I thought they were angry last week after the smack talk?

[MTSkiBum 1,594]

I am 8-7 on the year, however i am up 8 units. Doing good on big unit bets.

 

 

At Houston -4 Jacksonville 46.5 For 1 unit

Washington -6.5 At Detroit OVER 38.5 For 3 units

Chicago -2.5 At Seattle 37 For 1 unit

Pittsburgh -4 At Cincinnati 37 For 1 unit

Denver -1.5 At Oakland 35.5 For 2 units

At Arizona -2.5 Indianapolis 47 For 1 unit

At New England -4 Atlanta 44.5 For 1 unit

[Ras66not99 0]

Yet to think this one through, but... Titans v Jets UNDER

I'm thinkin of this one myself....

 

Also like the Over in the NE Atlanta game... Atlanta eats a ton of clock with that fat ass rumbling for 3 yards and a cloud of dust all game, but both of these teams should still score in the mid 20's with NE in the 31 Pt range....

 

nuttin greedy though 2 units

[kroyrunner89 0]

Love Giants -6.5, this is likely going to be a play

[Bones40 0]

Titans +1.5 @ Jets 37

Redskins -6.5 @Lions 38

Packers -6.5 @ Rams 41

49ers +6.5 @ Vikings 40

Bears -1.5 @ Seahawks 37

Broncos -1 @ Raiders 36

[swirvenirvin 25]

NFL YTD

Props 8-16 -7.63 units

NFL picks 4-1 2.69 units

 

Total 12-17 -4.94 units

 

Wash -6.5

STL +6.5

TB +6.5

PHI -8.5

MIN -6.5

DAL -8.5

[rozniarek 0]

How do the Bears not kill Seneca and the Seahags?

Seattle never gets blown out.the Bears offense is not all that. it will be closer than you think.

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

Seattle never gets blown out.the Bears offense is not all that. it will be closer than you think.

It makes me think the Under might be a play.

[Jdchris81 1]

I'm kinda surprised you guys don't like N.O +6!! I don't see buff being able to hang in this game!

[kroyrunner89 0]

Week 3 is finally here, bringing with it a lot of very interesting match-ups. After doing my usual routine throughout the week to decide which plays I like and narrow them down, I wound up with a few more plays then I expected. Although a couple of these have the looks of traps and it makes a a little nervous, I'm going to go ahead and ride them and hope for the best. When everything is said and done, I just can't make a case for why they shouldn't be a play, and if I think I see value there I'm going to take it. I'd be stunned if I saw another undefeated week, so please don't take these plays and throw them into parlays and hope for the best. This is a much tighter set of lines then in Week 1. As usual, I recommend just flat betting these plays and looking ahead to where you want to be at the end of the season, rather than where you want to be after this week. So, here are the plays I'm looking at for this week:

 

* New York Giants -6.5

 

The only way I see the Giants losing this game or failing to cover is if they suffer a letdown after their dramatic win over the Cowboys last week. However, this hasn't been characteristic of the Giants' teams of the past couple years. The last two seasons, when the Giants have been coming off of a win against a division opponent, and faced a non-division opponent the next week, they've still cruised, going 3-0 and winning by just under 20 ppg (Against the Rams and Ravens last year, and the Jets in 2007). Against a terrible Tampa team, I'll trust that this team has similar character to the teams of years past and doesn't suffer the letdown I'm slightly worried about. I expect the Giants to roll over the Bucs, cruising to a win by at least two touchdowns.

 

* Pittsburgh/Cincinnati UNDER 37

 

For the first time in a while, the Bengals look like they have a good defense. A big part of their success shutting down the Green Bay attack was the constant pressure they had on Rogers, and the Steelers' offensive line isn't much better. The Steelers have already surrendered 6 sacks in two games, while Cincinnati has pummeled their opponents for 9 sacks in two games. With the running game struggling, the Steelers will likely be a little more throw heavy, giving the Bengals more chances to get to Big Ben. With their QB under constant pressure, the Steelers shouldn't be able to put many good drives together, keeping their point total down.

 

As far as the Bengals' offense goes, I don't expect much better points wise. Their yards per pass and rush attempt are nothing spectacular, and Pittsburgh has absolutely slammed the door on the run so far this year. I expect the Bengals will still try, but they'll eventually have to turn to an inconsistent Palmer to try to get them to score. This should stay a low scoring affair, with both teams struggling to get in the end zone and coming away with a lot of field goals. I expect a 20-16 type of game at the highest.

 

* Chicago Bears -2

 

It took me a while to warm up to this game, but I simply cannot ignore all of the injuries plaguing the Seahawks right now. Hasselbeck is unlikely to play, and Wallace should struggle against a Bears defense that has been effective against the pass so far (6th in the league in yards per pass attempt). The Seahawks also will likely struggle running the ball, setting them up in must throw situations and playing into the Bears' hands. On offense, I expect the Bears to work hard to get the RB Matt Forte going, who has been shut down thus far. Against a Seattle defense that has injury problems and got shredded last week by the 49ers, I wouldn't be surprised to see success out of Forte finally. Once the run game is established, the Bears can let Cutler loose and put it away. Bears should take this one by a touchdown.

 

* Denver Broncos -1

* Denver/Oakland UNDER 36.5

 

Denver finds themselves in a position to start 3-0, something few could have predicted. Although the Raiders' defense has looked good so far this year, their offense has been absolutely abysmal. Russel has played very inconsistent, seeming to wake up for only the fourth quarter each week. Meanwhile, despite keeping the Chiefs to very few points last week, Oakland got dominated in total yardage. Their defense managed to do the job and get the Chiefs off the field, but I think that the Broncos are a team much more equipped to take advantage of scoring opportunities that come their way. Also, despite Oakland's struggle to rack up yards thus far, they've done a great job turning the yards into points. This however meets with the strength of the Denver defense, who is best in the league right now at keeping yardage from being converted into points. The Raiders' offense isn't much better than the Browns' right now, and Denver should have no problem keeping Oakland's point total in single digits. I see Denver scoring anywhere from 14-24 points, while Oakland struggles to find the right side of 10.

 

* Houston Texans -3.5

* Houston/Jacksonville OVER 47

 

I've flip flopped on this game all week, unable to decide if I wanted to make it a play or not. Houston seems to have the clear advantage here, and the line seems like it should be more in the neighborhood of Houston -7. However, we find ourselves facing a line of just 3.5 points, and we must wonder if we're walking into a trap with this one. I don't necessarily believe that Vegas sets lines with the purpose of trapping people, I think we just create the traps ourselves. Right now everyone is impressed with Houston's gutty come from behind win, with thoughts of Schaub's 4 touchdowns still fresh in their minds. Meanwhile, the Jaguars had an underwhelming effort against Arizona, and got thrown all over for the second game in a row. If I had to guess why this line was so low, I'd assume that Vegas expects it to be a high scoring affair with MJD having a monster day. Houston's pass and run defense are absolutely abysmal, giving up 7.4 yards per pass attempt, and 6.32 yards per rush attempt. Not all of those rushing numbers are because of Chris Johnson either, the Jets tore them up on the ground in Week 1 as well.

 

This game reminds me of the Week 1 Saints vs. Lions game, I have a very similar feeling on it. I'm confident that the points will be there on the Texans' end, if they fell short of 27 I'd be very surprised, they may even go over that. On the Jacksonville end, we know that they're going against a Texans' defense that has been very bad lately, and the opportunity for them to put up points sure appears to be there. If this game goes over, it'll be because Jacksonville did scored on their end and potentially covered. If it goes under, it's probably because the Texans' defense bore down and they blew out the Jags. I think this is another great situation where worst case scenario has us eating a little juice and going 1-1, with a very good possibility of the total going over and the Texans covering anyways, giving us a 2-0 record for this game.

 

I may come back with a Monday Night Football play, I'm strongly considering it right now. If I do make a play I'll send out an email Monday afternoon. Good luck this week guys, hopefully we find ourselves with a profit for a third week in a row!

[phillybear 364]

Overall NCAA YTD: 64-52-1; -11.44 units

NCAA Subset: 5 unit plays or higher: 35-33-1; -33.2 units

 

Overall NFL YTD: 15-11; +24.23 units

NFL Subset: 5 unit plays: 8-2; +29.7 units

 

Sunday

All for 2 units unless indicated otherwise. Might still add something.

 

Tennessee (+1)@+110 LOSER

Jacksonville (+3.5)@-110 WINNER

Tampa Bay (+7)@-122 LOSER

Washington (-6)@-114 for 5 units LOSER

StLouis (+7)@-118 LOSER

Minnesota (-6.5)@-104 for 5 units LOSER

New England (-4.5)@-110 for 5 units WINNER

 

Buffalo (+6)@-110 for 5 units LOSER

San Diego (-5.5)@-102 WINNER

Cincinnati (+4)@-121 for 5 units WINNER

Oakland (+1)@+112 for 5 units LOSER

 

Adding Arizona (-2.5)@-114 for 5 units

 

Monday

Carolina (+9)@-118 for 5 units

 

Good luck to all.

 

Edit: No best bets from Dr Bob (1-1 NFL) this week. Strong Opinions on NE, Buff, Under Buff/NO, Cinc.

[phillybear 364]

Where the action is going, a summary of a bunch of offshore sports books...

 

Tennessee 64% over NY Jets

Houston 76% over Jacksonville

Philadelphia 65% over Kansas City

Baltimore 67% over Cleveland

NY Giants 84% over Tampa Bay

Detroit 66% over Washington

Green Bay 82% over St Louis

San Francisco 61% over Minnesota

New England 54% over Atlanta

 

Chicago 85% over Seattle

New Orleans 75% over Buffalo

Miami 51% over San Diego

Pittsburgh 62% over Cincinnati

Denver 58% over Oakland

 

Indianapolis 54% over Arizona

 

Carolina 57% over Dallas

[swirvenirvin 25]

Overall NCAA YTD: 64-52-1; -11.44 units

NCAA Subset: 5 unit plays or higher: 35-33-1; -33.2 units

 

Overall NFL YTD: 15-11; +24.23 units

NFL Subset: 5 unit plays: 8-2; +29.7 units

 

Sunday

All for 2 units unless indicated otherwise. Might still add something.

 

Tennessee (+1)@+110

Jacksonville (+3.5)@-110

Tampa Bay (+7)@-122

Washington (-6)@-114 for 5 units

StLouis (+7)@-118

Minnesota (-6.5)@-104 for 5 units

New England (-4.5)@-110 for 5 units

 

Buffalo (+6)@-110 for 5 units

San Diego (-5.5)@-102

Cincinnati (+4)@-121 for 5 units

Oakland (+1)@+112 for 5 units

 

Monday

Carolina (+9)@-118 for 5 units

 

Good luck to all.

 

Edit: No best bets from Dr Bob (1-1 NFL) this week. Strong Opinions on NE, Buff, Under Buff/NO, Cinc.

 

Got 5 of yours like it

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

NFL Season total -1 unit

 

0-4 with my parlays so far this year. So that's not good. I guess I'm lucky to be only down 1 unit.

 

5 team 7 point teaser=> Saints/Bills OVER45,Titans/JetsUNDER44,Pats+3,Saints+1,Jets+4(5 units) Loser

 

2 team parlay=> Ravens -800 & Eagles -320(14 units) WinnerHappy Sunday and good luck to all

[ToledoLurch 0]

Week 3 card...

 

Teaser

Tennessee +7.5

Philly -2.5

 

straight bets

Cleveland/Baltimore - under 38.5

Pittsburgh -3

Chicago -2.5

 

 

Also like the over in Buffalo, assuming there are no weather issues.

 

Good luck all!!!

[cribdog 0]

7-3 so far playing the trends, but had a hard time finding teams that fit my criteria this week. So instead of forcing the action with trends that are marginal, I only have one play.

 

2-0 teams facing 0-2 teams and are favored by 10+ are 2-6-1 ATS, take the dog. With that in mind:

 

Cleve +13.5

 

Good luck!

[jkg31885 0]

A little late to posting

 

Detroit + 6.5 2 units

 

Oak +2 1 unit

 

Under SF Minni 39.5 3 units

[listen2me 23 1,542]

Tried a couple ML parlays. Houston ruined them for me.

 

Made a stupid quick play on Mia/SD Over 45. We will see what happens. Really wanted to get on the Lions ML but didn't.

[listen2me 23 1,542]

Teased Colts to +9 and over 42.5 for 3 units

 

Didn't feel like getting the other .5, not many ways the total score is 42. 24-14? I see both teams getting more than 2 TDs. I'm having a rough start to the year and am not helping myself with stupid plays like this. It is what it is. Grab a beer enjoy the game.

[phillybear 364]

Where the action is going, a summary of a bunch of offshore sports books...

 

Tennessee 64% over NY Jets

Houston 76% over Jacksonville

Philadelphia 65% over Kansas City

Baltimore 67% over Cleveland

NY Giants 84% over Tampa Bay

Detroit 66% over Washington

Green Bay 82% over St Louis

San Francisco 61% over Minnesota

New England 54% over Atlanta

 

Chicago 85% over Seattle

New Orleans 75% over Buffalo

Miami 51% over San Diego

Pittsburgh 62% over Cincinnati

Denver 58% over Oakland

 

Indianapolis 54% over Arizona

 

Carolina 57% over Dallas

 

Jumping Jehosophat. Just look at how many public sides won today. The books got killed. This happens every so often, but every obvious play hit. What the fock? This is death for dog bettors and trap exploiters like me. Holy fock. Vegas lays tray every focking week. But this week, they lay down and take a beating? Why?

 

I am feeling....surly.

[phillybear 364]

Adding Arizona (-2.5)@-114 for 5 units

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

Jumping Jehosophat. Just look at how many public sides won today. The books got killed. This happens every so often, but every obvious play hit. What the fock? This is death for dog bettors and trap exploiters like me. Holy fock. Vegas lays tray every focking week. But this week, they lay down and take a beating? Why?

 

I am feeling....surly.

 

Yep, it was a big week for the public and the favorites and I was shocked there wasn't more back door covers myself.

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

NFL for the year => +1 unit

 

 

Sunday night football is upon us.

 

2 team 7 point teaser for 5 units: Indy+10 & OVER 42 loserGood luck!

[phillybear 364]

Sigh. I popped my Season 4 of It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia DVD and just rewatched the home invasion scene. I think I just reached my Happy Gilmore Happy Place. Sigh.

 

I think I'm going to grab a bottle of rum, hide in some bushes in some neighbors yard, and apply a beating when they get home.

[Big Blue 06 195]

Adding Arizona (-2.5)@-114 for 5 units

 

You just said that the public won on nearly all of the games and then you bet against them in the Sunday night game? Thinking this is the exception??

[slestack11 0]

I like Colts +3 tonight just because it's Peyton Manning and primetime. Look for Warner to get knocked out of this game with Indy's intense pass rush.

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

Sigh. I popped my Season 4 of It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia DVD and just rewatched the home invasion scene. I think I just reached my Happy Gilmore Happy Place. Sigh.

 

I think I'm going to grab a bottle of rum, hide in some bushes in some neighbors yard, and apply a beating when they get home.

I didn't see that one. Sounds quite humorous which can buffer the blow of a bad stretch though.

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

I like Colts +3 tonight just because it's Peyton Manning and primetime. Look for Warner to get knocked out of this game with Indy's intense pass rush.

I'm not sure who will win, but I'd like to think Peyton Manning can keep it close. He usually is withing one score by the end of the game. That's why I chose the teaser on this game=> Colts +10 & Over 42. Of course, it'll probably be like the New Orleans/Buffalo game earlier where the under is a clear winner.

[listen2me 23 1,542]

NFL for the year => +1 unit

Sunday night football is upon us.

 

2 team 7 point teaser for 5 units: Indy+10 & OVER 42

Good luck!

 

Lets get it

[CLichti 0]

I'll take

 

Falcons +4

Chargers -6

Saints -5

Broncos/Raiders under 36

 

to the bank.

 

Falcons lay an egg, but 3 of 4 isn't bad.