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"Fantasy football is 90% luck!"

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Larger leagues make preparation more important, I think. The deeper you have to go into the available pool of resources, the more you have to rely on smart plays with good odds of performing well. I like 14-16 teams, as you really have to stretch sometimes to get a roster that can truly compete week to week.

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If you were not able to make moves to block your opponents, that expressly shows that they were well prepared, which, ipso facto, removes luck from that "problem".

 

I don't think every team drafted and assembled their teams to specifically beat me...and they sure as hell didn't trade for their games with me. Luck.

 

Ipso facto...I haven't heard that phrase since law school. I can't believe I can even remember that far back when I have trouble remembering things from last year. The good 'ol days.

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specific year it has been 90% bad luck and 10% preparation! Hell, our first place team is almost dead last in total points. You can prepare all you want but still catch bad breaks...luck.

 

I'm in the same situation here. 8-4 and 1st in my division despite being third from last (12-team league) in points scored (within 7 of lowest-scoring team). Definitely luck in my case.

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Total points leagues remove a lot of luck. I am in 2 H2H leagues and 2 Total Points leagues and enjoy the total points leagues much more. I am thinking about dropping my H2H leagues next year. If you are a better owner Total points is the only way to go. H2H leagues are for beginners and weaker owners.

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I traded for Gore (skill)

A week later he is on IR (bad luck)

Some other guy drafted Hillis in the last round (good luck for him)

 

Not sure how to quantify the above with percentages.

 

After 16 years of playing FF, the same 4 or 5 people seem to be competing for the title each year. The other 8-10 seem to be in the toilet bowl round more often than not. Clearly luck and randomness is not the only thing at work.

 

Call it 50/50

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I traded for Gore (skill)

A week later he is on IR (bad luck)

Some other guy drafted Hillis in the last round (good luck for him)

 

Not sure how to quantify the above with percentages.

 

After 16 years of playing FF, the same 4 or 5 people seem to be competing for the title each year. The other 8-10 seem to be in the toilet bowl round more often than not. Clearly luck and randomness is not the only thing at work.

 

Call it 50/50

 

I agree...we do seem to have the same teams in the playoffs. However, the past two years the winners of the league have been the worst teams to sneak into the playoffs. Again, I am one of the highest scoring teams in the league and have to play for a playoff spot this weekend and one of the lowest scoring teams is sitting in first place with a guaranteed first round bye. I think being prepared puts you in a position to succeed but luck puts you over the edge. The good thing is most people have an even disbursement of good and bad luck. It is when you get those folks with an unbelievable streak of good or bad luck that skews the data.

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Of course there is a whole lot of luck. Whether it's 40%, 50% 60%, 70% who the hell knows. Those are just arbitrary numbers. But to think that a big portion isn't luck is pretty dumb.

 

What I've found is that it's not even really "skill" perse either. It's simply passion for FF and paying attention. The folks that keep up to date on the day to day news regarding FF. The folks like most here that actually enjoy it enough to post on a message board about it. The folks that take the time to fully understand the league rules/scoring/ect. The folks that make sure to be on top of the waiver wire and work the trade lines. Those are the folks that will do well year end and year out.

 

I'm not sure you can call that a "skill", but doing all those things usually translates to doing okay and putting yoruself in postion to (with some good luck) win it all.

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Of course there is a whole lot of luck. Whether it's 40%, 50% 60%, 70% who the hell knows. Those are just arbitrary numbers. But to think that a big portion isn't luck is pretty dumb.

 

What I've found is that it's not even really "skill" perse either. It's simply passion for FF and paying attention. The folks that keep up to date on the day to day news regarding FF. The folks like most here that actually enjoy it enough to post on a message board about it. The folks that take the time to fully understand the league rules/scoring/ect. The folks that make sure to be on top of the waiver wire and work the trade lines. Those are the folks that will do well year end and year out.

 

I'm not sure you can call that a "skill", but doing all those things usually translates to doing okay and putting yoruself in postion to (with some good luck) win it all.

 

This.

 

"Skill", "Strategy", "Efficiency", or whatever one chooses to call it plays a considerable role in one's success, along with a fair bit of luck.

 

BUT... again... Suggesting 90% luck is absurd. Why bother even playing if that's the case. You might as well challenge your buddies to coin-flipping contests if you believe that. (not directed at you KSB)

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BUT... again... Suggesting 90% luck is absurd. Why bother even playing if that's the case.

 

Bingo. :thumbsup:

 

What's really funny is to see people claim it's 90% luck ... on a fantasy football message board where they're collecting information and forming strategies. If it's 90% luck why the hell are you wasting your time at FF Today? :wacko:

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Total points leagues remove a lot of luck. I am in 2 H2H leagues and 2 Total Points leagues and enjoy the total points leagues much more. I am thinking about dropping my H2H leagues next year. If you are a better owner Total points is the only way to go. H2H leagues are for beginners and weaker owners.

 

In my 14-team league we recognized this early on (early 90s) and changed the prize structure to:

 

1st = Total Pts Winner

2nd = SB Winner (+ name on Trophy and an engraved Mug)

3rd = Total Pts Runner-up

4th = SB Runner-up

 

Since it's a 14 team league, you have some avid FFers and some casual FFers that still want to compete...so there's something for everyone!

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In my 14-team league we recognized this early on (early 90s) and changed the prize structure to:

 

1st = Total Pts Winner

2nd = SB Winner (+ name on Trophy and an engraved Mug)

3rd = Total Pts Runner-up

4th = SB Runner-up

 

Since it's a 14 team league, you have some avid FFers and some casual FFers that still want to compete...so there's something for everyone!

 

 

That is a nice setup.

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Bingo. :thumbsup:

 

What's really funny is to see people claim it's 90% luck ... on a fantasy football message board where they're collecting information and forming strategies. If it's 90% luck why the hell are you wasting your time at FF Today? :wacko:

How do you know what people are doing on FF meszsage board? Collecting info and planning a strategy has nothing to do with skill. You can strategize all you want but collecting all that info, doing all that research, means nothing when your guy breaks his leg on a fluke play, or a ref calls a bogus holding penalty that brings back a long TD that would have won you a game. It's luck, pure and simple.

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I traded for Gore (skill)

A week later he is on IR (bad luck)

Some other guy drafted Hillis in the last round (good luck for him)

 

Not sure how to quantify the above with percentages.

 

After 16 years of playing FF, the same 4 or 5 people seem to be competing for the title each year. The other 8-10 seem to be in the toilet bowl round more often than not. Clearly luck and randomness is not the only thing at work.

 

Call it 50/50

First, please explain how trading for Gore is skill? There is absolutely no skill involved in making a trade.

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also, saying that drafting hillis is luck is a bit retarded. I drafted hillis in 2 leagues. Where I got him, people were picking up 2nd TEs and 5th WRs. So while no one expected hillis to do what he's done this year, drafting him while others are going after the antwan randel els, and justin gages of the league is actually the opposite of luck. It is skill, or preperation H, or whatever you want to call it. Calling it luck is superstupid...

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How do you know what people are doing on FF meszsage board? Collecting info and planning a strategy has nothing to do with skill. You can strategize all you want but collecting all that info, doing all that research, means nothing when your guy breaks his leg on a fluke play, or a ref calls a bogus holding penalty that brings back a long TD that would have won you a game. It's luck, pure and simple.

 

Your teams must perennially stink for you to be in such denial. Blame everyone but yourself.

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First, please explain how trading for Gore is skill? There is absolutely no skill involved in making a trade.

 

Negotiation, persuasion and working with another team to build a mutually beneficial deal are absolutely skills related to FF.

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also, saying that drafting hillis is luck is a bit retarded. I drafted hillis in 2 leagues. Where I got him, people were picking up 2nd TEs and 5th WRs. So while no one expected hillis to do what he's done this year, drafting him while others are going after the antwan randel els, and justin gages of the league is actually the opposite of luck. It is skill, or preperation H, or whatever you want to call it. Calling it luck is superstupid...

 

well that depends. If you drafted him thinking he was going to be a good pick, fair enough. If you drafted him in round 18 to fill out a roster spot for RB5 and then he goes off on a pro bowl level season, you were quite fortunate. point taken though.

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Negotiation, persuasion and working with another team to build a mutually beneficial deal are absolutely skills related to FF.

 

:doh:

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Negotiation, persuasion and working with another team to build a mutually beneficial deal are absolutely skills related to FF.

:lol: Riiiiggghhhttt. :rolleyes:

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also, saying that drafting hillis is luck is a bit retarded. I drafted hillis in 2 leagues. Where I got him, people were picking up 2nd TEs and 5th WRs. So while no one expected hillis to do what he's done this year, drafting him while others are going after the antwan randel els, and justin gages of the league is actually the opposite of luck. It is skill, or preperation H, or whatever you want to call it. Calling it luck is superstupid...

It absolutely is luck, unless you can show us the magic 8-ball you used that showed Hardesty would be hurt for the year and Harrison would be traded. Pure fockin luck!

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well that depends. If you drafted him thinking he was going to be a good pick, fair enough. If you drafted him in round 18 to fill out a roster spot for RB5 and then he goes off on a pro bowl level season, you were quite fortunate. point taken though.

 

 

Did I know he was going to do what he's done??? Ofcourse not. Did I believe he was a better option than going for what everyone else was going for at that stage??? I absolutely did...

 

 

Also drafted Foster in all 3 of my leagues. And in each one I reached, taking him as early as middle of the 3rd in my 14 team league. So did I luck out there??? I passed up on some damn decent players there in the 3rd to grab him. My answer is that's not luck. If you throw a blanket statement out there that says well anyone that got him, or hillis lucked out, I think thats wrong...

 

DId people luck out on bowe, sure. Though I bet there were some people that genuinely believed that he'd out perform a lot of the other WRs in the same band as him. I grabbed Bowe because I had a bunch of WRs bunched together where he was going, and I just happened to get him as opposed to one of the others there.

 

Guess you can look at it from both sides. I got lucky with Bowe, but on the foster and Hillis pieces, I absolutely believe I outdid my opponents...

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Give it up FlaHawker, you won't be able to convince them... Thinking fantasy football is not luck is their only thing in life...

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Give it up FlaHawker, you won't be able to convince them... Thinking fantasy football is not luck is their only thing in life...

 

yeah, we all should turn our focus and skill to noble pursuits like deadpools. :thumbsup:

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yeah, we all should turn our focus and skill to noble pursuits like deadpools. :thumbsup:

 

Hey, that is luck also...

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Walking to the kitchen and making a sammich is luck according to these Einsteins. :first:

 

We are talking posty and flahawker here. I doubt either of them could spell Einstein without a cut and paste.

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You guys can believe what you believe and I will believe what I believe...

 

Anyone that really thinks about knows that will all of the information out there on the internet available it is luck...

 

Unfortunately, you guys are the ones that is not thinking about it...

 

Good "skill" to the rest of your season then...

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You guys can believe what you believe and I will believe what I believe...

 

Anyone that really thinks about knows that will all of the information out there on the internet available it is luck...

 

Unfortunately, you guys are the ones that is not thinking about it...

 

Good "skill" to the rest of your season then...

 

ok, so infoi is available to the masses. How someone interprets and acts on that info is also luck?

 

Another example: you and a lifelong carpenter. Both of you build a house - the info is out there on how to do it. His ends up better than yours. Is he just lucky?

 

Skill, experience, preparedness, effort - call it what you want. There are difference makers that extend beyond the ebb and flow of good and bad luck in FF.

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ok, so infoi is available to the masses. How someone interprets and acts on that info is also luck?

 

Another example: you and a lifelong carpenter. Both of you build a house - the info is out there on how to do it. His ends up better than yours. Is he just lucky?

 

Skill, experience, preparedness, effort - call it what you want. There are difference makers that extend beyond the ebb and flow of good and bad luck in FF.

 

Dude! You used an analogy AND the term "ebb and flow"...

 

There is about a 1% chance of their pea-sized brains processing such dialogue.

 

and that 1% is luck

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You guys can believe what you believe and I will believe what I believe...

 

Anyone that really thinks about knows that will all of the information out there on the internet available it is luck...

 

Unfortunately, you guys are the ones that is not thinking about it...

 

Good "skill" to the rest of your season then...

 

 

this is probably the worst english i've ever seen, even for the internets. Do you even understand what luck means??? Ugh, the education system failed you someting awful posty. Did you try and register as potsie, like from happy days, and the best you could do is type out posty???

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this is probably the worst english i've ever seen, even for the internets. Do you even understand what luck means??? Ugh, the education system failed you someting awful posty. Did you try and register as potsie, like from happy days, and the best you could do is type out posty???

 

Oops, I thought that didn't look right when I re-read it yesterday... Oh well, that is why writers have editors...

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hey moron, do you understand english??? or do you just selectively read what you want to read because you already have your mind made up...

 

 

I'll reiterate my point using smaller words so you understand...

 

Me draft Hillis when other draft stupid 2nd TEs and 5th WRs. Me not know hills start and be super stud. Me know there is more value in grabbing a RB there than going for other junk everyone else go for.

 

Me hit paydirt with hillis. Me believe that is not luck, because me use strategy to draft him while others draft junk. Me smart, you stupid...

 

HTH

1- I understand English just fine.

 

2- Maybe Hillis was available so late in drafts because the conventional wisdom on the Brown RB job was that Harrison was the guy with Hardesty being drafted as the future guy. Hillis was considered nothing more than depth as a FB! So don't try to tell me or anyone that some how you used skill in drafting this guy late. It was nothing more than fockin lottery ticket that hit. Pure fockin luck.

 

3- And like I also said before and maybe you should check your own reading comprehension abilities, you cannot equate skill and strategy. Two different things.

 

Fantasy football is not a skill based game in any way, shape, or form. HTH

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So, the draft is all luck?

Are drafts luck? Well yes and no. Yes, I can employ a strategy and put my self in postion to draft the best players, but in the end, how those players perform is pure luck. If my first round pick blows out his knee on the first play of the season bad luck. If my late round lottery ticket, ala Peyton Hillis this year or say a Marques Colston in his rookie year, blows up, that is good luck. But it is luck pure and simple.

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You guys can believe what you believe and I will believe what I believe...

 

Anyone that really thinks about knows that will all of the information out there on the internet available it is luck...

 

Unfortunately, you guys are the ones that is not thinking about it...

 

Good "skill" to the rest of your season then...

//thread :thumbsup:

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Yeah, maybe we is the ones not thinking about it... :lol:

You know you've lost the argument when you have to resort to typo smack.

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