"Fantasy football is 90% luck!"

[Stifler 2]

There is a whole lot of luck involved...and I have none of it. It doesn't matter how well you project your own points when your opponents have their career days against you. If luck is not a huge factor, then look at my team and tell me how I am 6-6 (in a twelve team league) and playing this weekend for the last spot in the playoffs. Bank on Bradford, SJax, LT, Braylon Edwards, Sydney Rice and Keller all having great games this week.

[southcarolina 166]

You should try picking names randomly out of a hat in your next draft.

 

Maybe you'll win it all.

 

The guy who is 11-1 in my league drafted PManning (10), Mike Sims Walker (11), Greg Jennings (20), Jets Def (21), Mercedes Lewis (30),49ers def(31) Josh Scobee (40)Ahmad Bradshaw (41) CJ Spiller (50) and Owen Daniels (51) with his first 10 picks.

[MDC 5,890]

The guy who is 11-1 in my league drafted PManning (10), Mike Sims Walker (11), Greg Jennings (20), Jets Def (21), Mercedes Lewis (30),49ers def(31) Josh Scobee (40)Ahmad Bradshaw (41) CJ Spiller (50) and Owen Daniels (51) with his first 10 picks.

 

And then he struck gold on the waiver wire, which is not luck.

[jerryskids 5,201]

The biggest "luck" factor is head-to-head matchups. In one league, I and one other team dominate total points. I'm tied for 3rd at 8-4, he is 5-7 (poor schmuck). The top team at 11-1 has by far the least points against, the second place team has by far the second least points against. Interestingly, I have the 3rd least points against, shouldn't I be undefeated?

 

In my $ league, I'm tied for 2nd. Lost to the other 2nd place team 108-101, the two highest points of the week. The guy with the best record won 56-53 when his opponent lost Gore. He is nowhere near the top in points scored, just lucks into opponents who do shiotty.

 

You can largely control your total points from year to year, and if you are "good" you will be near the top. But you can't control matchups.

[WR Guru 31]

You should try picking names randomly out of a hat in your next draft.

 

Maybe you'll win it all.

 

It's funny you should say that. The #1 team in my league right now at 11-1 had an emergency and could not make it to the auction. But he did not want to miss a year in the league, so we had another owner just pick a roster for him so that he would have a team to manage. It was all a big joke that we were just filling out his team with whoever.

 

Well, he is now 11-1 and #2 in the league in points and the core of the team (both QBs, all 3 RBs, and top 3 receivers) are still the guys who were "joke" picked for him, not free agents (Dwayne Bowe, Fred Jackson, David Gerrard...). Mind you, this is a competitive 14-team league with many 10+ year veterans, not a rookie league by any means.

 

And, oh, of course, his points-against is the second lowest, while the #1 scoring team is only 7-5 and in serious danger of missing the playoffs because their points-against is the second highest. Now tell me again how luck isn't a massive, 50% factor in this game?

[southcarolina 166]

And then he struck gold on the waiver wire, which is not luck.

 

 

No actually he struck gold with his last two draft picks, Ladanian Tomlinson and Austin Collie, which i guess arguably could be called skill, or lack thereof by the rest of us, for not seeing them becoming what they did. His free agent acquisitions were Greg Olson, Eddie Royal, and Mike Thomas and two defenses, the only one of which he ever actually used was Eddie Royal twice. My team averages about 110 pts a game. In seven of his eleven wins he has scored 101 pts or fewer, including 3 wins with less than 80 pts. He played my #2 scoring, but very Texan heavy, team the week they played the Giants, and got blown out. The week i scored the lowest pts ive scored all season (85). He played the top scoring team the week they scored their fewest pts this season. Every week, i think there is no way his "good fortune" can hold out, and yet it does.

 

Im not complaining, mind you, i had a season last year like that, where everything i did turned to gold. It was my first season ever playing and i lost 2 games, and won our league. But i certainly wasnt skilled. I was just lucky.

[MDC 5,890]

Now tell me again how luck isn't a massive, 50% factor in this game?

 

I never said it wasn't. What I was laughing at was the idea that it's 90% luck. I've been playing ff for around 17 years and the same owners year after year field competitive teams. In around 30 leagues I've had one sub-.500 record in that time.

 

Amazing how the same owners keep getting "lucky."

[WR Guru 31]

I never said it wasn't. What I was laughing at was the idea that it's 90% luck. I've been playing ff for around 17 years and the same owners year after year field competitive teams. In around 30 leagues I've had one sub-.500 record in that time.

 

Amazing how the same owners keep getting "lucky."

 

Okay, you're right. A true super-genius can use his mental prowess to avoid drawing a brutal schedule or getting hammered by injuries or... A true 9th level Fantasy wizard can even control the weather, I hear.

 

Yes, granted, the owners who are diligent and do their homework will field competitive, winning teams more often than not. However, within every season, you see teams who do nearly everything right and still get focked by factors beyond their control while others bungle and stumble their way to the playoffs or even a championship with every break going their way. And yes, in my experience there ARE owners who seem to have a horseshoe up their arse and others who seem to be cursed when it comes to this game. That's been my observation over many years and I'm sure most owners who are in long established leagues have seen the same thing.

[Laurence Maroney's Nuts 2]

Okay, you're right. A true super-genius can use his mental prowess to avoid drawing a brutal schedule or getting hammered by injuries or... A true 9th level Fantasy wizard can even control the weather, I hear.

 

Yes, granted, the owners who are diligent and do their homework will field competitive, winning teams more often than not. However, within every season, you see teams who do nearly everything right and still get focked by factors beyond their control while others bungle and stumble their way to the playoffs or even a championship with every break going their way. And yes, in my experience there ARE owners who seem to have a horseshoe up their arse and others who seem to be cursed when it comes to this game. That's been my observation over many years and I'm sure most owners who are in long established leagues have seen the same thing.

 

This what we are saying... There is certainly some luck involved, but to suggest 90% is absurd...

[FlaHawker 24]

Okay, you're right. A true super-genius can use his mental prowess to avoid drawing a brutal schedule or getting hammered by injuries or... A true 9th level Fantasy wizard can even control the weather, I hear.

 

Yes, granted, the owners who are diligent and do their homework will field competitive, winning teams more often than not. However, within every season, you see teams who do nearly everything right and still get focked by factors beyond their control while others bungle and stumble their way to the playoffs or even a championship with every break going their way. And yes, in my experience there ARE owners who seem to have a horseshoe up their arse and others who seem to be cursed when it comes to this game. That's been my observation over many years and I'm sure most owners who are in long established leagues have seen the same thing.

Bingo!

[Law 220]

It's always an amazing coincidence that those who claim FF as luck are the ones who lose at it.

 

Brutal schedule? A better team scores more point. If you can't outscore this "brutal" schedule, you're team isn't good. That's not bad luck, that's bad management.

 

Injuries? I've lost Romo, Stafford, and S Hill at QB and P Thomas and Addai at RB - I'm 7-5 and in second. How? Because I picked up other players! I now start Kitna and Goodson.

 

Weather? Are the other FF teams in your league effected by weather or just your poor luck team? That's what I thought.

 

Career games by my opponent? Ok, once, twice, even three a year ok. Not every week! So don't BS us. That's, at worst, three weeks and three loses. What'd you do the other 9 weeks? What was the excuse then?

 

 

 

Winners win and losers cry bad luck.

[MDC 5,890]

Winners win and losers cry bad luck.

 

Yep. Granted, luck plays a role in the game no doubt and a really unlucky team can lose games they should win or end up with multiple key players on IR. But more often than not the team that drafts well and scours the waiver wire is going to win more than they lose. 50% luck? Maybe. 90% luck? No freaking way. That's a loser's excuse.

[Giants Fan 85]

Someone in my league who is out of the playoffs, while I am tied for first called me a "lucky fool" today, one the basis that he had 240 more points scored against him.

 

While he did run into some bad luck this year, there were lots of things I did to prevent my opponents from scoring points against me (see grabbing waiver players just so they can't play them, trading players that are on a bye the week you play your opponent, etc.). If it looks like luck to you ... you might just not be looking for reasons WHY something happened.

 

Also, some of my waiver pick ups this year were Vick, Hillis and Tamme.

[TD Ryan2 314]

I understand how to rank and tier players; I understand the concepts of value when drafting and therefore maximize my roster's overall potential and depth over the course of a draft.

 

I am observant during the season and keep track of injuries, lineup changes, and statistical trends.

 

These things make me "Good" at fantasy football.

I would NOT call it a "skill" or "talent": I am simply a fan of football and can spend a lot of time watching and reading about it.

The fact that I actually enjoy football and don't consider paying close attention to be a chore gives me an advantage over those who don't or can't pay close attention.

 

All of this puts me "in the mix" every year.

After that it takes a lot of luck for it to all fall in place and get me the money.

 

IMO, Fantasy Football is NOT skill, it's about 60-70% preparation and 30-40% luck.

[idiotec 31]

IMO, Fantasy Football is NOT skill, it's about 60-70% preparation and 30-40% luck.

Totally agree, and I am someone who does pretty well. To call any part of FF "skill" is stretching the definition. All it takes is some commitment and time doing the research. Some people care more than others.

[mcstl25 0]

I'm in first place in one of my leagues... and have fewer total points than the last place team.

 

Fantasy football is at least 50 percent luck.

[p00h 85]

Someone in my league who is out of the playoffs, while I am tied for first called me a "lucky fool" today, one the basis that he had 240 more points scored against him.

 

While he did run into some bad luck this year, there were lots of things I did to prevent my opponents from scoring points against me (see grabbing waiver players just so they can't play them, trading players that are on a bye the week you play your opponent, etc.). If it looks like luck to you ... you might just not be looking for reasons WHY something happened.

 

Also, some of my waiver pick ups this year were Vick, Hillis and Tamme.

 

 

big stretch dude, saying you had a HUGE influence in your opponent not scoring so many points on you. That is the epitome of FF, dudes with a high total points for the year being at the bottom of the standings, and vice versa. I'm 6-6 in a league where I'm leading the league in points, and that record has NOTHING to do with anything anyone else did. It has to do with monster weeks I had, and some mediocre weeks I had. And some better than average weeks I had where I just happened to run into monster weeks by the opponent. Thats the beauty of head to head. I don't look at that as luck, or lack there of. It's just head to head. It's like anything else in life. When Kobe puts up 45 points and still loses the game, its not luck. It's the other team overcoming that strong performance and still beating the lakers. Maybe not the most apt analogy, but I think it applies. To say your moves avoided your opponent from scoring high against you is assinine though. I'm sorry. It's also high egotistical. There is VERY LITTLE one can do to prevent the opponent from scoring high. You're acting like ever week there are a ton of players on the WW that you can cockblock on, and also that you're always in position ahead of your opponent to strategically do said cockblocking. It don't work like that...

[Giants Fan 85]

Interesting stat in my league this year:

 

The top 6 teams have made 176 waiver moves

 

The bottom 6 teams have made 104 waiver moves (with the top 2 there having 50 of that 104)

 

So that tells me that the players that put in more work, and made the most moves, won the most games. That's a strike against luck.

 

ETA: We have a limit of 40 moves, my team has made 39 and is playing for a first round bye, but the top 6 teams are a game apart. 2 at 8-4 and 4 at 7-5. Then there are 2 at 6-6 that are still in the running.

[RoadLizard 73]

 

Also, some of my waiver pick ups this year were Vick, Hillis and Tamme.

 

Bear in mind - Most leagues use a waiver system and teams are ranked by record and/or points determining when they get to select free agents. Guess what? It IS almost 100% luck as to when you get to pick players and what players will be there when you pick early. So if Vick and Hillis happened to be there when your turn came up then thats great for you. The other 5-6 or more teams that also requested the players didnt get them. Sure, some crappy teams didnt even request the players and thats just dumb and not luck at all. However, most teams probably did and it was all based on your record at the time. Lots of luck there. Just saying.

[Giants Fan 85]

It's a rolling list, so it's first come first serve, for the most part. Waiver priority only matters when you are adding a player someone else waived and is waiting to clear.

 

Hillis I added pre-season (same day Hardesty went down) and Vick I added like week 6, anticipating that he would beat out Kolb for good and was a better backup to Rogers than Palmer. Tamme I got .... literally seconds after he scored that first TD like 3 weeks ago. Anyway, I traded Hillis for Best, and have won despite that (and drafting Moss in the first round).

 

All my opponents had the same opportunity to add these players, but I got there first. And you are saying that falls under the luck category?

 

Wanna know bad luck? I had the 11th pick. AP, CJ, Ray Rice, Frank Gore, Ryan Grant, CJ Spiller and Ryan Mathews were all gone. I was ... ahem ... lucky that Charles fell to me at 3.11 and in the 5th or 6th I took Thomas Jones to make sure my late third round pick was not wasted. Those were also the 2 highest ranked RBs on my board after going Moss, Rogers with my 1 and 2.

[FlaHawker 24]

It's always an amazing coincidence that those who claim FF as luck are the ones who lose at it.

 

Winners win and losers cry bad luck.

I have claimed FF is mostly luck and no where in here have I claimed that I have lost. In fact, I win year in and year out but I am not so arrogant as to claim that I have some skill that others do not. This is a game of luck pure and simple.

[Giants Fan 85]

I have claimed FF is mostly luck and no where in here have I claimed that I have lost. In fact, I win year in and year out but I am not so arrogant as to claim that I have some skill that others do not. This is a game of luck pure and simple.

 

That doesn't make any sense. I remember one year I was in a free league where only one other person was trying. I think that's the only year I won it all, but every year I am competitive. Every year. Every year a predict a rookie that people shouldn't draft and they do anyway. Every year that rookie sucks. I even picked Vick ..... his rookie year. Every year I use waiver moves to block my opponents from using players against me that I think they might add. Every year I swoop up WW gems a week or 2 before they become huge. Every year. Every year.

 

It can't all be luck. I guess if all opponents are equally competitive .... it's all luck. But I have never been in a league where I felt like other teams were as competitive as me.

[Giants Fan 85]

I have a general rule that I don't draft rookies. I drafted Dexter McCluster this year in the 15th (further insurance to my Charles/Jones picks) but I waived him for Vick.

[FlaHawker 24]

That doesn't make any sense. I remember one year I was in a free league where only one other person was trying. I think that's the only year I won it all, but every year I am competitive. Every year. Every year a predict a rookie that people shouldn't draft and they do anyway. Every year that rookie sucks. I even picked Vick ..... his rookie year. Every year I use waiver moves to block my opponents from using players against me that I think they might add. Every year I swoop up WW gems a week or 2 before they become huge. Every year. Every year.

 

It can't all be luck. I guess if all opponents are equally competitive .... it's all luck. But I have never been in a league where I felt like other teams were as competitive as me.

Yeah you told everyone to avoid Chris Johnson, that worked out well As for your examples, you are confusing strategy for skill. Yes, there is strategy involved in everything but using strategy does not equate to having skill.

[southcarolina 166]

Oh so there is a difference between 50 % and 90 % luck now? Luck is luck. FF is all about luck! What a tool!

 

 

[yogiberra]

Half of fantasy football is 90% luck

[/berra]

[Giants Fan 85]

Yeah you told everyone to avoid Chris Johnson, that worked out well As for your examples, you are confusing strategy for skill. Yes, there is strategy involved in everything but using strategy does not equate to having skill.

 

1 year I was wrong. 1 year, my rookie bust pick was Chris Johnson and he turned out to be "worth drafting" as a rookie. I drafted him last year with the 9th pick. He exceeded my expectations. But every other year I have been right. This year? CJ Spiller. Everyone was so high on him ... I shoulda said Mathews. I drafted Sproles and Jackson ..... just in case these guys who had never played a down in the NFL might not work out. This was a can't miss year though .... once again, most rookies were drafted too high.

[RoadLizard 73]

Yeah you told everyone to avoid Chris Johnson, that worked out well As for your examples, you are confusing strategy for skill. Yes, there is strategy involved in everything but using strategy does not equate to having skill.

 

Yes. This. There is planning and strategy involved and those who plan and put some effort into it have the potential for more things going their way or "increasing" their chance for "good" luck factor. They will win more - so I guess you do have some control over it. But, ultimately, its like rolling dice. Its mostly dependent on how things roll....

[FlaHawker 24]

1 year I was wrong. 1 year, my rookie bust pick was Chris Johnson and he turned out to be "worth drafting" as a rookie. I drafted him last year with the 9th pick. He exceeded my expectations. But every other year I have been right. This year? CJ Spiller. Everyone was so high on him ... I shoulda said Mathews. I drafted Sproles and Jackson ..... just in case these guys who had never played a down in the NFL might not work out. This was a can't miss year though .... once again, most rookies were drafted too high.

Every year I tell people not to draft QBs in the first round. Every year I am right

[FlaHawker 24]

Yes. This. There is planning and strategy involved and those who plan and put some effort into it have the potential for more things going their way or "increasing" their chance for "good" luck factor. They will win more - so I guess you do have some control over it. But, ultimately, its like rolling dice. Its mostly dependent on how things roll....

//thread

[Giants Fan 85]

2 years ago I drafted Manning #2 overall. 6 point passing TDs. Finished first in points. Missed the Super Bowl by less than a point, and woulda won. So I am not against drafting a QB in the first round .... with 6 point passing TDs and I usually like to take a QB in the first 3 rounds. But typically, I have a QB targeted that wont be drafted in the first. Last year I got Brees in the second. This year, Rogers in the second.

[FlaHawker 24]

2 years ago I drafted Manning #2 overall. 6 point passing TDs. Finished first in points. Missed the Super Bowl by less than a point, and woulda won.

wow talk about bad luck

[Giants Fan 85]

wow talk about bad luck

 

Mighta been 3 years ago. Colston's rookie year. BEST TE EVAH!

[Stifler 2]

Don't kid yourselves...it has a lot to do with luck. I am the most active player in our league. I didn't draft Orton, Lloyd, Tamme, Akers, Westbrook, Jones, Fitzgerald, Gore, Charles or VJax. I either picked them up off of the wire or traded for them early in the season. I am 2 points behind the highest scoring team with 1299 points. However, I have had 243 more points scored against me than the next closest team. I have caught every team when their players had their best games of the season including Vick, Foster, S. Johnson, Brady, McFadden, BGE, Best, Cassel, Bowe, Nicks, Rodgers, Rivers, Benson, NE Defense, Forte, and Britt. These are just the players I remember off of the top of my head! It has been an unbelievable streak of bad luck...to the point it has become humorous. Even though I outmatch this week's opponent accross the board, he has great matchups...again. If I win I am in the playoffs. Hopefully, my luck will change because when you make the playoffs, anything can happen.

 

Up until this year, I have always believed that FF was maybe 40% luck and 60% preparation. After this year, I would have to think a regular year would fall around 60% luck and 40% preparation. However, this specific year it has been 90% bad luck and 10% preparation! Hell, our first place team is almost dead last in total points. You can prepare all you want but still catch bad breaks...luck.

[Giants Fan 85]

So you made no moves to calk-block your opponents this year? Say .... picking up a defense, not because you needed to but because your opponent needed to?

 

This is absolutely one of the things under your control (unlike draft position, schedule or injuries). If you are not making waiver moves, pre-emptively .... you are not making enough waiver moves.

[Stifler 2]

So you made no moves to calk-block your opponents this year? Say .... picking up a defense, not because you needed to but because your opponent needed to?

 

This is absolutely one of the things under your control (unlike draft position, schedule or injuries). If you are not making waiver moves, pre-emptively .... you are not making enough waiver moves.

 

How do you block a team that is already assembled? It is not like they picked somebody off of waivers to play against me. Also, who would you drop off of my team to pick somebody up for a week...knowing they would be snatched up the second they hit the wire?

[Giants Fan 85]

How do you block a team that is already assembled? It is not like they picked somebody off of waivers to play against me. Also, who would you drop off of my team to pick somebody up for a week...knowing they would be snatched up the second they hit the wire?

 

There are all kinds of opportunities, all year, every week. You simply look at your opponents team, figure out who they might pick up (say their starting QB is on a bye and a better option is on the wire) and pick up that player first. It works better if you are looking at least 1 week ahead. Or you trade players to an opponent that are on a bye when you play them. This is doubly effective as you not only take away a weapon they can use against you, but you give them weapons they can't use against you. It takes a little foresight.

[Stifler 2]

There are all kinds of opportunities, all year, every week. You simply look at your opponents team, figure out who they might pick up (say their starting QB is on a bye and a better option is on the wire) and pick up that player first. It works better if you are looking at least 1 week ahead. Or you trade players to an opponent that are on a bye when you play them. This is doubly effective as you not only take away a weapon they can use against you, but you give them weapons they can't use against you. It takes a little foresight.

 

That is exactly my point...I had no opportunity to do it. All of the teams in this league were intact when I played them. Like I said, they didn't pick people up off the wire to play against me. Trust me, I try to block every year. I just wasn't presented the opportunity to do it this year. Luck.

 

Also, I have a hard time making trades in this league. For the past 15 years, I have raped people in trades and they are very reluctant to trade with me. Every year my trade total goes down...not because I don't try but because people in the league specifically stay away from my trades. However, I was able to make a few lopsided trades this year including Best (after his big game) and a scrub QB for Charles.

[Giants Fan 85]

That is exactly my point...I had no opportunity to do it. All of the teams in this league were intact when I played them. Like I said, they didn't pick people up off the wire to play against me. Trust me, I try to block every year. I just wasn't presented the opportunity to do it this year. Luck.

 

OR ... your opponents planned well.

[Stifler 2]

OR ... your opponents planned well.

 

Regardless if they "planned well", my team was far superior to theirs and I lost...period. Although it was bad luck, it was luck.

[Giants Fan 85]

Regardless if they "planned well", my team was far superior to theirs and I lost...period. Although it was bad luck, it was luck.

 

Better? Really? The record says differently. I suppose you can say the 1992 Atlanta Falcons were the best team in the NFL that year. Eric Dickerson, Deion Sanders, Andre Rison, Chris Miller. But .... they didn't win it all. Not even close. Awesome team in Super Tecmo though. "OK, you can have Pittsburgh, I'll take Atlanta."

 

If you were not able to make moves to block your opponents, that expressly shows that they were well prepared, which, ipso facto, removes luck from that "problem".