Taking FF advice from a chimp flipping a quarter

[chroniciguana 13]

Feeding off another threadwhere a poster proclaimed himself a genius for being wrong 40 percent of the time, I suggested a chimp with a quarter could do better. I then figured it was worth giving a try.

 

Not having a chimp handy, I reckoned I would have to fill in. Discarding anything remotely scientific, I randomly selected Week Two projections for running backs from an equally random website with a reasonably good reputation. Below are the site's top 10 along with their projected points.

 

Starting with Charles and working my way south, I flipped a quarter (hence, Washington) for each player. Heads = Boom and Tails = Bust. I again discarded anything remotely scientific and arbitrarily determined that if a player fell short of his point projection by 20 percent or more, he was a bust for purposes of this experiment. If he fell within 20 percent, or met or exceeded his projection, he was a boom.

 

So, if George does better than 40 percent wrong, he's a genius. If not, he's just a coin. In the event Scientific Journal is interested, I used a 1967 (it's still around?) George Washington quarter blindly plucked from a Maxwell House coffee can. The quarter was shaken in a tacky Christmas coffee mug with duck of some sort on the front.

 

Here, then, are your 2011 Week Two George Washington Booms and Busts!

 

Jamaal Charles - 19 pts. Flip: Tails. (Bust)

Adrian Peterson - 17.9 pts. Flip: Heads. (Boom)

Ray Rice - 16.6 pts. Flip: Heads. (Boom)

Arian Foster - 16.2 pts. Flip: Heads (Boom)

Darren McFadden - 16.2 pts Flip: Tails (Bust)

Frank Gore - 15.7 Flip: Tails (Bust)

Rashard Mendenhall - 15.0 pts Flip: Tails (Bust)

LeSean McCoy - 14.9 pts. Flip: Heads (Boom)

Maurice Jones-Drew - 14.7 pts. Flip: Tails (Bust)

Chris Johnson - 13.7 pts. Flip: Heads (Boom)

 

And yes, I have waaaay too much time on my hands this morning.

[Sho Nuff 719]

Damn...I wanted to start MJD and McFadden and the monkey...er...I mean you, project them as a bust.

Stupid coin flipping.

[ACL's 0]

Actually, probably pretty good information. Or there is the infamous Costanza theory: do the exact opposite of what you normally do. Thinking Stafford over Henne? Go Henne. Hmmm. Well, Seinfeld WAS just TV. You know, make believe.

 

Very interesting study however. We'll see how it works out.

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

Did you take into account the weather, moon phase and pollen?

[Sho Nuff 719]

Did you take into account the weather, moon phase and pollen?

http://www.weather.com/maps/activity/allergies/usragweedpollen_large.html?clip=undefined&region=undefined&collection=localwxforecast&presname=undefined

 

There is the ragweed pollen map for you.

[chroniciguana 13]

Did you take into account the weather, moon phase and pollen?

No. That would be silly.

[OakHeadFootball 1]

Brilliant!!

 

[chroniciguana 13]

If the chimp goes 8-10 or better, he'll likely be flipping coins live on ESPN next Sunday morning. Or, at a minimum, replacing Gregg Rosenthal over on NBC.

[DexterMorgan 5]

Does the Chimp have WR and QB predictions?

[chroniciguana 13]

Does the Chimp have WR and QB predictions?

 

Yes, but you have to be a subscriber. And be able to pick bugs off fur with your teeth.

[Franknbeans 46]

I like the cut of your jib

[Gepetto 988]

Chimp will probably do better than Peter King.

[NorthernVike 2,080]

Yes, but you have to be a subscriber. And be able to pick bugs off fur with your teeth.

I'm in

 

 

 

Well done

[jkil22 1]

There was book where a guy decide all his life decision based on the flip of a coin (or roll of the dice). In one part his choices were; "Heads I go to bed, tails I go downstairs, break into my neighbors house and rape her. Well the coin turned out to be tails and so he goes ahead breaks in and rapes his neighbor. I don't see how the coin can steer you wrong.

[Axe Elf 0]

The methodological flaws here are almost too numerous to delineate.

 

First, you're making predictions based on someone else's predictions to begin with. As bad a start as that is, you're not even sticking with their predictions as the yardstick of success or failure--you're adjusting their predictions downward by 20% so that it's easier to boom and harder to bust. So even if this "random website's" predictions could be considered to be an accurate benchmark that the player is 50% likely to achieve (and there's no real reason to believe that to be the case in the first place), you've now given them a benchmark that they are 60% likely to achieve.

 

To make this experiment more closely parallel what I was doing, flip coins for each of the projected top 10 performers at each position. Heads, they do indeed finish in the top 10; tails, they finish outside the top 20. Then flip coins for each of the projected 20-30 range players (I think Armstrong and Massaquoi would be even deeper sleepers than that, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt)--heads they finish in the top 10; tails they finish outside the top 20.

 

If you then get 62% of the projected top 10 players for whom you flipped tails finishing outside the top 20, and 62% of the projected 20-30 range players for whom you flipped heads finishing in the top 10--THEN you can say that the chimp with a coin did as well as I did in Week 1.

[Filthy Fernadez 2,696]

Actually, probably pretty good information. Or there is the infamous Costanza theory: do the exact opposite of what you normally do.

 

Awesome episode man. Another Costanza-ism: It's not a lie if you believe it.

 

Brilliant!!

 

 

Agreed. chroniciguana you sir are going to be a General someday.

 

The methodological flaws here are almost too numerous to delineate.

 

Lighten up Francis.

[chroniciguana 13]

The methodological flaws here are almost too numerous to delineate.

 

Yeah, it's probably fair to say the "methodology" thing pretty much crashed and burned at the point the make-believe chimp scampered into the equation.

 

If George goes over 40 percent, you get to brag that you've got way more football smarts than an elderly metalic white guy who has been dead for more than 200 years. If not, you just got schooled by an imaginary monkey. A win-win all around.

[southcarolina 166]

The methodological flaws here are almost too numerous to delineate.

 

 

 

Thank you. Using a quarter to determine FF outcomes? Absolutely ludicrous. Everyone knows that in order to correctly predict FF outcomes, one must use a Magic 8 Ball.

 

 

 

Amateurs.

[IMMensaMind 459]

Thank you. Using a quarter to determine FF outcomes? Absolutely ludicrous. Everyone knows that in order to correctly predict FF outcomes, one must use a Magic 8 Ball.

 

 

 

Amateurs.

 

Or an elf.

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

The methodological flaws here are almost too numerous to delineate.

 

First, you're making predictions based on someone else's predictions to begin with. As bad a start as that is, you're not even sticking with their predictions as the yardstick of success or failure--you're adjusting their predictions downward by 20% so that it's easier to boom and harder to bust. So even if this "random website's" predictions could be considered to be an accurate benchmark that the player is 50% likely to achieve (and there's no real reason to believe that to be the case in the first place), you've now given them a benchmark that they are 60% likely to achieve.

 

To make this experiment more closely parallel what I was doing, flip coins for each of the projected top 10 performers at each position. Heads, they do indeed finish in the top 10; tails, they finish outside the top 20. Then flip coins for each of the projected 20-30 range players (I think Armstrong and Massaquoi would be even deeper sleepers than that, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt)--heads they finish in the top 10; tails they finish outside the top 20.

 

If you then get 62% of the projected top 10 players for whom you flipped tails finishing outside the top 20, and 62% of the projected 20-30 range players for whom you flipped heads finishing in the top 10--THEN you can say that the chimp with a coin did as well as I did in Week 1.

 

How about we have you make your predictions using the same measurements for the same players this week? Then we can compare apples to apples (or at least elf to chimp).

 

If that goes well, then you can do it every week. Win-win.

[Axe Elf 0]

If George goes over 40 percent, you get to brag that you've got way more football smarts than an elderly metalic white guy who has been dead for more than 200 years.

 

 

I get to do that anyway, since, as explained previously, your exercise bears no resemblance to what I have done.

[chroniciguana 13]

I get to do that anyway, since, as explained previously, your exercise bears no resemblance to what I have done.

 

In other words, you ain't doing it.

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

In other words, you ain't doing it.

We could just have the chimp go against a chicken. I think that the octopus could be an option, but might be too tough to coordinate.

[Axe Elf 0]

In other words, you ain't doing it.

 

 

I ain't doing what? I will continue to do what I do--provide sage fantasy football wisdom to the eager masses on a weekly basis. You can continue to do what you do--protest, ignore, ridicule, lose, whatever... and if you feel brave, maybe someday you'll put up some predictions of your own to compare to mine. Use your brain or use a coin, I don't much care where they come from--they will always pale in comparison to the genius that is Axe Elf.

[FlaHawker 24]

I thought this was about jgcrawfish's predictions...

[chroniciguana 13]

I ain't doing what? I will continue to do what I do--provide sage fantasy football wisdom to the eager masses on a weekly basis. You can continue to do what you do--protest, ignore, ridicule, lose, whatever... and if you feel brave, maybe someday you'll put up some predictions of your own to compare to mine. Use your brain or use a coin, I don't much care where they come from--they will always pale in comparison to the genius that is Axe Elf.

 

Is that a no?

[Axe Elf 0]

Is that a no?

 

 

I'm sorry, I must have missed the question.

[chroniciguana 13]

I'm sorry, I must have missed the question.

The entire question, or just 40 percent of the question?

 

How about we have you make your predictions using the same measurements for the same players this week? Then we can compare apples to apples (or at least elf to chimp).

 

If that goes well, then you can do it every week. Win-win.

 

The monkey has returned from throwing feces at the neighbors. He says bring it on. Oh My God he's talking!

[Franknbeans 46]

I ain't doing what? I will continue to do what I do--provide sage fantasy football wisdom to the eager masses on a weekly basis. You can continue to do what you do--protest, ignore, ridicule, lose, whatever... and if you feel brave, maybe someday you'll put up some predictions of your own to compare to mine. Use your brain or use a coin, I don't much care where they come from--they will always pale in comparison to the genius that is Axe Elf.

you didn't just go 3rd person on us?

[Axe Elf 0]

you didn't just go 3rd person on us?

 

 

Nope. He did. ::: points to self :::

[Sho Nuff 719]

 

 

Jamaal Charles - 19 pts. Flip: Tails. (Bust)

Adrian Peterson - 17.9 pts. Flip: Heads. (Boom)

Ray Rice - 16.6 pts. Flip: Heads. (Boom)

Arian Foster - 16.2 pts. Flip: Heads (Boom)

Darren McFadden - 16.2 pts Flip: Tails (Bust)

Frank Gore - 15.7 Flip: Tails (Bust)

Rashard Mendenhall - 15.0 pts Flip: Tails (Bust)

LeSean McCoy - 14.9 pts. Flip: Heads (Boom)

Maurice Jones-Drew - 14.7 pts. Flip: Tails (Bust)

Chris Johnson - 13.7 pts. Flip: Heads (Boom)

 

 

Charles...busted, his knee. +1

Peterson...big yards, 2 TDs...boom. +1

Ray Rice...96 total yards, 1 TD...15.6 points in my league... +1

Foster...bust...0

McFadden...143 total yards, 2TDs...boom. +1

Gore...12.4 points in my league...that is 78% of projected...bust...+1

Mendenhall...13.8 points...within 20%...0

McCoy...2 TDs...boom. +1

MJD...10.7 points...72%...bust. +1

CJ...6.5 points...bust. 0

 

7 of 10.

70%

George wins.

[Filthy Fernadez 2,696]

70%

George wins.

 

Agreed!

 

chimp > elf

[Axe Elf 0]

Jamaal Charles - 19 pts. Flip: Tails. (Bust)

Adrian Peterson - 17.9 pts. Flip: Heads. (Boom)

Ray Rice - 16.6 pts. Flip: Heads. (Boom)

Arian Foster - 16.2 pts. Flip: Heads (Boom)

Darren McFadden - 16.2 pts Flip: Tails (Bust)

Frank Gore - 15.7 Flip: Tails (Bust)

Rashard Mendenhall - 15.0 pts Flip: Tails (Bust)

LeSean McCoy - 14.9 pts. Flip: Heads (Boom)

Maurice Jones-Drew - 14.7 pts. Flip: Tails (Bust)

Chris Johnson - 13.7 pts. Flip: Heads (Boom)

 

 

Charles...busted, his knee. +1

Peterson...big yards, 2 TDs...boom. +1

Ray Rice...96 total yards, 1 TD...15.6 points in my league... +1

Foster...bust...0

McFadden...143 total yards, 2TDs...boom. +1

Gore...12.4 points in my league...that is 78% of projected...bust...+1

Mendenhall...13.8 points...within 20%...0

McCoy...2 TDs...boom. +1

MJD...10.7 points...72%...bust. +1

CJ...6.5 points...bust. 0

 

 

I don't know if this was an intentional error or not, but fantasy football is full of stat corrections on Tuesday.

 

McFadden was a boom, chimp said bust.

 

6 of 10

60%

 

Axe Elf > Anyone

[Sho Nuff 719]

I don't know if this was an intentional error or not, but fantasy football is full of stat corrections on Tuesday.

 

McFadden was a boom, chimp said bust.

 

6 of 10

60%

 

Axe Elf > Anyone

 

Sorry...missed one.

 

Flipping a quarter pretty much equals...well...you.

I will stick with coin flipping, it has less dooshbaggery.