Why you can feel confident starting Tebow Week 11

[Boilermaker04 11]

1) Lack of preparation. NY has only had 1 solid day of film work, game planning, and practice to prepare for a vastly different NFL offense. Gimmicky or not, it worked very well last week and no one has film on it. NY played until midnight on Sunday, then has to both travel to Denver and play on Thursday night. Many players will not have had a chance to go through their recovery process before the game starts. They were using Mark Brunell to play Tebow's role in practice...

 

2) NYJ is just an average run defense both in fantasy and NFL stats. You may as well forget about the pass because Denver already has. John Fox himself called his QB a runner, because that's what he is. DEN is going to go right at NYJ and make them try to stop it. NYJ has been repeatedly gouged by opposing rushers all year. Why would it change this game?

 

3) NYJ have struggled to pressure the QB this season. They are currently ranked 23rd in sacks for the year. Contrast that with DET who was able to dominate Tebow, they are ranked 6th. Yes, blitzes are a focal point for Ryan's defense but it's basic knowledge that effective rushing slows down the blitz.

 

4) NYJ does not score enough points. Mark Sanchez has been perfectly acceptable this year, with one really really bad game, but he's not a Rodgers/Brady type of QB that's going to light up the scoreboard. NYJ and DEN are both average scoring teams with NY scoring about 3/pt more a game. 3 points is home-field advantage. If Denver doesn't fall way behind, they will keep on running.

 

5) Tebow's track record as a fantasy QB. Simply put, the big Tebowski scores points. 7 career games with significant playing time has put up these numbers in standard format, wk15 last year first: 24.7, 28.1, 33.7, 17.8, 22, 18.9, 26, 17.8. You can dissect that any way you like, but it doesn't change the fact that it's happened.

 

There you have it, a conventional 5 point argument for why you can feel confident starting Tebow on Thursday.

 

Now could someone else please convince me I'm right before kickoff...

[nobody 2,044]

I was feeling confident starting him, but after reading that post packed to the gills with logical fallacies, I'm starting to second guess myself.

 

I do think Eddie Royal will make an appearance this week. Decker is going to be on Revis Island, and when Denver falls behind, it's going to be the Royal/LaFell show.

[MDC 5,893]

I am starting Tebow because Schaub is down and my only other option is Hasselbeck. But I don't love it. I'm sure he'll get some points on the ground. My fear though is the Broncos fall behind early, he's forced to throw it 20 or more times and either gets benched or repeatedly picked. Since I have no other iptions though I'll hold my nose and give him the start.

[murf74 461]

One pass is the only thing that kept him from hittin ww in every league.....

[Boilermaker04 11]

I was feeling confident starting him, but after reading that post packed to the gills with logical fallacies, I'm starting to second guess myself.

 

I do think Eddie Royal will make an appearance this week. Decker is going to be on Revis Island, and when Denver falls behind, it's going to be the Royal/LaFell show.

 

Sorry to shake your confidence but I was already in that boat. I was legitimately trying to find good reasons, but 5 was the only good one I could come up with and one statement just isn't enough. The rest are... loosely thrown together based on facts.

 

Tebow shouldn't work but it does. I was trying to explain why it does, but I guess I had the opposite effect.

 

One pass is the only thing that kept him from hittin ww in every league.....

 

I think its safe to assume 2 things: 1- Fox will not bench his 2nd year QB who has gone 3-1 if he has a couple bad quarters consecutively, you have to let him live and learn (right?? ie Delhomme). 2 - Brady Quinn really sucks.

[Gepetto 988]

I've got Vick, Hasselbeck, Cutler and Tebow in one league and my head is spinning trying to figure out who to start. I had Cutler in, but have now changed it up to Hasselbeck (looking at fftoday projection; though they've let me down before - Stevan Ridley earlier this year).

[Matt Mueller 146]

The Jets defense has played against the miami wildcat in division recently and up until this year ran a version of their own with Brad Smith.

 

They will be familiar, prepared and ready to erase last week.

[p.man 7]

The Jets defense has played against the miami wildcat in division recently and up until this year ran a version of their own with Brad Smith.

 

They will be familiar, prepared and ready to erase last week.

 

I agree and also feel that with no Tomlinson around, it will be the S.Green show. At least it should be.

Start Green.

[montana 89]

In most leagues, Tebow is almost a lock to score a minimum of around 14 points. That's a pretty high floor IMO. There just aren't very many QBs that we can say that about, regardless of your own personal feelings on the guy.

To address the poster who said that he was 1 TD pass from hitting the WW? Seriously? That one play in most leagues was only worth 5 pts. Even w/o it, he would've finished around what Stafford did - maybe I should drop Stafford?

Unless you have Rodgers, don't expect 25+ from any QB every week (thus far). Even Brady, Brees, & Newton have bad games - if you look at their bad games I'd bet they aren't any worse/better than what Tebow just put up. Haters gonna hate I guess?

 

I'm not starting Tebow this week. It's not because I think the match up is bad, its more because Stafford's match up is better.

[chroniciguana 13]

Those of us who own the guy have likely figured out that Tebow is pretty much a Whatthehell start. You stare at your QBs for an hour, close your eyes, hold your nose, say "What the Hell?" and left click on his name. The time spent on any further analysis can be better used for drinking.

[p00h 85]

Those of us who own the guy have likely figured out that Tebow is pretty much a Whatthehell start. You stare at your QBs for an hour, close your eyes, hold your nose, say "What the Hell?" and left click on his name. The time spent on any further analysis can be better used for drinking.

 

i like the cut of your jib!

 

As far as Tebow goes, he's gonna get shut down this week. No chance a 1 dimensional gameplan works against the jets. For 1, the corners will play man, allowing them to sub in more LB and bigger players to play the run, taking out smaller safties and such. Secondly, the Jets O, while not a world beater, is not the damn chiefs, let alone chiefs without cassell. Jets will get ahead, disallowing the bronks to run the ball 743 times.

 

But more importantly than that, the jets have a solid D and a pretty damn good head coach that doubles as a D coordinator. You're not going to get far with that option bullshit on the jets, I guarantee this...

[chroniciguana 13]

As far as Tebow goes, he's gonna get shut down this week.

 

I agree. He also got shut down right good in Week 8 by the Lions. Scored 16 points in the process. He doesn't play by the rules.

[JtmoneyJag 25]

i like the cut of your jib!

 

As far as Tebow goes, he's gonna get shut down this week. No chance a 1 dimensional gameplan works against the jets. For 1, the corners will play man, allowing them to sub in more LB and bigger players to play the run, taking out smaller safties and such. Secondly, the Jets O, while not a world beater, is not the damn chiefs, let alone chiefs without cassell. Jets will get ahead, disallowing the bronks to run the ball 743 times.

 

But more importantly than that, the jets have a solid D and a pretty damn good head coach that doubles as a D coordinator. You're not going to get far with that option bullshit on the jets, I guarantee this...

 

You may be right, but it sure as hell will be fun to watch and find out. Thing is, even if they get a big lead, tebow will get garbage time points. It isn't about how well he does football wise, but fantasy wise. How many points do you predict in standard scoring? In saying all that, I'm starting Stafford over him this week and probably from here on out because of his schedule and next 4 games being in the dome.

[Jaxie 0]

I've got Vick, Hasselbeck, Cutler and Tebow in one league and my head is spinning trying to figure out who to start. I had Cutler in, but have now changed it up to Hasselbeck (looking at fftoday projection; though they've let me down before - Stevan Ridley earlier this year).

 

Why are you holding so many QBs? With all the injuries to QBs this past week you could probably get way over their value in a trade with a panicked owner right now. C'mon man.

[p00h 85]

I agree. He also got shut down right good in Week 8 by the Lions. Scored 16 points in the process. He doesn't play by the rules.

 

 

You may be right, but it sure as hell will be fun to watch and find out. Thing is, even if they get a big lead, tebow will get garbage time points. It isn't about how well he does football wise, but fantasy wise. How many points do you predict in standard scoring? In saying all that, I'm starting Stafford over him this week and probably from here on out because of his schedule and next 4 games being in the dome.

 

 

you guys are right. i'm a jets fan, and am evaluating the situation from purely a football perspective. And from that perspective I don't see broncos doing much against the jets, but that blockheaded mofo has a knack of getting garbage time one way or another. However, I do strongly believe that there's a very distinct possibility that the jets get ahead quickly, and come 2nd half they'll have to get away from the option run crap and try and throw the ball with some consistency. If this scenario plays out, Tebow is a dead man walking. What I'm saying is, saying his floor is 16 pts is not very accurate. Expecially if you play in a league where turnovers are minus pts. There is a 30% chance he has jsut an outright putrid day, possibly minus pts. Jets will not let them rip of 8 yards a run on stupid option plays, you can take that to the bank...

[Bishop82 61]

[Kent 228]

I won't be starting Vick and am left with Tebow or Bradford.

 

Bradford has the better matchup, but something is really wrong with their passing game. At least Tebow scores points every week.

 

Given the fact my fantasy team is likely going to miss the playoffs thanks to insane injuries this year, I'm thinking about going to Tebow tonight in a boom or bust scenario for my season.

[MDC 5,893]

I have Foster and Graham on bye along with my defense and Schaub is hurt - I'm starting Tebow because I'm virtually a lock to make the playoffs but lose this game, and he's the perfect QB for the island of misfit toys roster I'll be trotting out this week.

[Gepetto 988]

Why are you holding so many QBs? With all the injuries to QBs this past week you could probably get way over their value in a trade with a panicked owner right now. C'mon man.

 

Because Vick is injury prone; Tebow can put up big games but could be benched (at least that was the thought the last two weeks). No one in my league needs a QB. 12 team league. Shaub owner has Flacco. I'm not trading Vick. The other QBs are nothing special. I did have Kolb early in the year and traded him for AJ Green but that owner then traded for Cam when Kolb failed.

[unclemercy 51]

this thread ftw.

[Boilermaker04 11]

Those of us who own the guy have likely figured out that Tebow is pretty much a Whatthehell start. You stare at your QBs for an hour, close your eyes, hold your nose, say "What the Hell?" and left click on his name. The time spent on any further analysis can be better used for drinking.

 

I had to come back and thank you for this post, as you managed to convince me to just say fock it and plug him in to my starting lineup about an hour before kickoff. Over Sanchez.

 

Then I got a beer out of the fridge and went about my business.

 

[pronghorn3 0]

you guys are right. i'm a jets fan, and am evaluating the situation from purely a football perspective. And from that perspective I don't see broncos doing much against the jets, but that blockheaded mofo has a knack of getting garbage time one way or another. However, I do strongly believe that there's a very distinct possibility that the jets get ahead quickly, and come 2nd half they'll have to get away from the option run crap and try and throw the ball with some consistency. If this scenario plays out, Tebow is a dead man walking. What I'm saying is, saying his floor is 16 pts is not very accurate. Expecially if you play in a league where turnovers are minus pts. There is a 30% chance he has jsut an outright putrid day, possibly minus pts. Jets will not let them rip of 8 yards a run on stupid option plays, you can take that to the bank...

 

Is there anything else you'd like to add from a purely football perspective?

[p00h 85]

Is there anything else you'd like to add from a purely football perspective?

 

yes. the jets suck. Tebow also sucks. If you guys feel comfortable starting him and waiting for 3 minutes left in teh game to get 80% of his points, and believe he'll be able to do this on a weekly basis, please be my guest and plug him in on a weekly basis. Do let us know how that plays out in the long run. Thx...

[p00h 85]

Is there anything else you'd like to add from a purely football perspective?

 

 

also, if you rearead what I wrote, it's basically spot on. There are some if's in there that didn't play out, but the assessment of tebow is spot on. 16 pts is not his floor. He basically pulled that game out of his ass to end up with about 16 pts...

[Till 0]

also, if you rearead what I wrote, it's basically spot on. There are some if's in there that didn't play out, but the assessment of tebow is spot on. 16 pts is not his floor. He basically pulled that game out of his ass to end up with about 16 pts...

 

If this was the first time, I would tend to agree with you. But he has done this in every game he ha played in. He scores fantasy points In the most absurd ways, even when getting pounded into the dirt and throwing incomplete passes.

[chroniciguana 13]

He scores fantasy points In the most absurd ways ...

 

We're now deducting for points scored in absurd ways. New rule.