For those of us OUT of the playoffs...

[thesitedoc 5]

I'm thinking Cam Newton has to enter the debate for a 1st round pick along with Rodgers.

 

As far as the #1 overall pick I'm thinking Foster with the obvious Tate handcuff later on or McCoy.

 

With Foster, you get a great Oline and if/when Foster get's hurt you can plug in Tate for about the same results.

 

With McCoy there is no plug and play backup.

[Matt Mueller 146]

If nothing changes:

 

1. Foster

2. Rice

3. McCoy

4. CJ? He's starting to regain my trust.

 

I could debate McCoy/Rice all day but this is where I currently have them.

[murf74 461]

Late first instead of wr take gronk or graham

 

Btw in the playoffs

[uwmalcolm 73]

Late first instead of wr take gronk or graham

 

Unless you're in a 20 team league, you could easily get away with that in the second for better value.

[DexterMorgan 5]

Same guy I had #1 this year. Adrian Peterson.

[murf74 461]

Unless you're in a 20 team league, you could easily get away with that in the second for better value.

 

After say 8....who has more value...how many wrs are even ahead of them

 

You are crazy to pick any wr besides megatron before gronk and graham.

[ralphster 274]

After say 8....who has more value...how many wrs are even ahead of them

 

You are crazy to pick any wr besides megatron before gronk and graham.

 

re: Gronk - I really think Hernandez has been hurt or not totally well since he injured his knee a ways back. I see BB getting him more involved late this year and all of next, as well as signing a legit deep threat. That makes me think Gronk will be a hot early pick next year, which means I won't get him in the 9th like I did this year.

 

re: Graham - He's gotta be the consensus #1 TE next year. Phenomenal. Beast. But I reached for Finley in the late 4th in my money league this year. He's won me one game, but the rest of the time he's pretty much sucked. Not because of a lack of talent, but because his team is stacked everywhere and there are too many mouths to feed. New Orleans is the same type of team. I think opposing defenses are going to game plan for TEs much better next year. I'd reach for Graham, but probably not until the 4th where he probably won't be.

 

Other WRs I'd consider: Calvin sure. Welker, Nicks, Jennings, Fitz, AJ, possibly Vjax, R White (and a few others) would be picks I'd probably make before taking a TE in the 2nd next year. TE pool is deep enough imo.

[murf74 461]

re: Gronk - I really think Hernandez has been hurt or not totally well since he injured his knee a ways back. I see BB getting him more involved late this year and all of next, as well as signing a legit deep threat. That makes me think Gronk will be a hot early pick next year, which means I won't get him in the 9th like I did this year.

 

re: Graham - He's gotta be the consensus #1 TE next year. Phenomenal. Beast. But I reached for Finley in the late 4th in my money league this year. He's won me one game, but the rest of the time he's pretty much sucked. Not because of a lack of talent, but because his team is stacked everywhere and there are too many mouths to feed. New Orleans is the same type of team. I think opposing defenses are going to game plan for TEs much better next year. I'd reach for Graham, but probably not until the 4th where he probably won't be.

 

Other WRs I'd consider: Calvin sure. Welker, Nicks, Jennings, Fitz, AJ, possibly Vjax, R White (and a few others) would be picks I'd probably make before taking a TE in the 2nd next year. TE pool is deep enough imo.

In my non ppr only wrs scored more than gronk and graham is megatron and welker.

 

Tight ends may be decently deep but dropoff is off charts betwern them and the rest. While wr is grouped tight eithout much dropoff

[browns16-0 30]

1.Foster

2.McCoy

3.Rice

4.Peterson

 

Pretty similar to this season's draft actually.

[BTL99 34]

Cam is without a doubt the #1 pick.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,653]

Cam is without a doubt the #1 pick.

Wrong. The dropoff from foster/rice/peterson/mccoy is way too big once you get to your second pick. You can still draft a stud qb in the second round.

[kmbryant09 1]

In my non ppr only wrs scored more than gronk and graham is megatron and welker.

 

Tight ends may be decently deep but dropoff is off charts betwern them and the rest. While wr is grouped tight eithout much dropoff

The point is value. If I guaranteed you (and only you) that the 6th string WR for Dallas would be next season's fantasy MVP, would you draft him in the 1st round? Of course not, since you could take him in the last round.

 

I highly, highly doubt, that either TE (Gronk or Graham) will go in the first 15-20 picks in MOST drafts next year. If you're sitting around 8-10, grab an elite WR (Megatron, Welker, Jennings, Fitz?) or great RB (Chris Johnson, MJD, Forte) in the 1st round, and still get your TE on the way back.

[Evil Genius 0]

Cam is without a doubt the #1 pick.

 

I remember gys spouting this same crap about Vick, in December of last year. Yeah, that turned out.

 

A QB, now matter how good, as the #1 pick ?

[murf74 461]

The point is value. If I guaranteed you (and only you) that the 6th string WR for Dallas would be next season's fantasy MVP, would you draft him in the 1st round? Of course not, since you could take him in the last round.

 

I highly, highly doubt, that either TE (Gronk or Graham) will go in the first 15-20 picks in MOST drafts next year. If you're sitting around 8-10, grab an elite WR (Megatron, Welker, Jennings, Fitz?) or great RB (Chris Johnson, MJD, Forte) in the 1st round, and still get your TE on the way back.

 

You can do that only if you know they will skip.

 

At this point I will not draft a single wr before these 2 TEs even megatron who has been figured out...i will pass on him too.

 

I want guaranteed pts over my opponent and right now only brees rodgers gronk and graham do it. If you want an average team draft fitz and jennings instead of the TEs who outscore them.

[kmbryant09 1]

You can do that only if you know they will skip.

 

At this point I will not draft a single wr before these 2 TEs even megatron who has been figured out...i will pass on him too.

 

I want guaranteed pts over my opponent and right now only brees rodgers gronk and graham do it. If you want an average team draft fitz and jennings instead of the TEs who outscore them.

You're completely missing my point.

 

In most leagues, there's a 99.9% chance that one of those 2 TE's will be available at the start of the 2nd round (11-15 pick). Why waste your 1st rounder on Graham or Gronk when you could use your 2nd rounder on them.

 

Also, I do agree that they are the 2 best TE's, probably by quite a margin. But their success is a prime example of why your strategy is flawed. Gronkowski wasn't even drafted as a starter in many leagues, and J. Graham was rarely a top5 TE selection. The "can't-miss" TE's coming into this season were Gates (injured/up & down season) and Finley (disappointing).

 

If you're talking guaranteed points at the 1st/2nd round turn, why wouldn't you draft a QB? In most leagues, Rodgers will be gone, but I'm sure Brees and Brady would be available...

[t-birdie 8]

In leagues that require a TE, a strong case can be made for Gronkowski being taken in the first round. I know that's unheard of for a TE, but if you think in terms of VAM (value above the mean) it makes sense.

 

Take Calvin Johnson and there are several other WRs that are almost as good. Maybe not as consistently good, but chances are you can find at least a half dozen WRs during the year that come out of nowhere to be solid starters.

 

Gronkowski is 25 pts better than even Graham who's having an incredible year. Take him and you've got an instant 5-9 pt advantage per week over any other team in the league - and it's much harder to find a TE that "comes out of nowhere." Who'd we have this year? Fred Davis? Jimmy Graham overachieved, but wasn't unknown.

 

I got some bad breaks this year and lost some close games on BS, but Gronk has accounted for at least 3-4 wins alone.

 

I might test the waters (if I played in a draft league, mine's an auction) and see if he slipped to me in the 2nd, but I think there's a 50-50 shot he wouldn't.

[t-birdie 8]

and you have those 3 weeks early in the year where apparently Belichick forgot how much of an uncoverable beast Gronkowski is - and kept him in to block. I don't think he'll be seeing too many more snaps as a blocking TE.

[t-birdie 8]

Gronkowski wasn't even drafted as a starter in many leagues, and J. Graham was rarely a top5 TE selection.

 

 

I can't speak for anyone else's league, but when Gronkowski came up it was a feeding frenzy at my auction. I think he was #6 on my cheat sheet but he went for the most money. Graham and Gates were both kept. Most TEs outside of 1-2 go for $2-$5. Gronkowski went for $17 ($250 cap) and there were at least 4 bidders for most of that. I had no doubts about his potential beastliness, I just underestimated him. Considering he's got more points than my #1 and #2 WR combined and is #2 to only CJohnson at WR, He's gotta be worth at least $60-$70 (CJohnson went for $81 in my auction).

[kmbryant09 1]

I can't speak for anyone else's league, but when Gronkowski came up it was a feeding frenzy at my auction. I think he was #6 on my cheat sheet but he went for the most money. Graham and Gates were both kept. Most TEs outside of 1-2 go for $2-$5. Gronkowski went for $17 ($250 cap) and there were at least 4 bidders for most of that. I had no doubts about his potential beastliness, I just underestimated him. Considering he's got more points than my #1 and #2 WR combined and is #2 to only CJohnson at WR, He's gotta be worth at least $60-$70 (CJohnson went for $81 in my auction).

Well, according to fantasyfootballcalculator.com - Gronkowski was the 10th TE taken on average. He was the 13th TE taken in my main league.

 

Another point to consider: Gronkowski relies heavily on scoring TD's. Obviously, he's in a high-powered offense, so he has a ton of scoring chances...But TD's tend to fluctuate from year-to-year, especially for TE's. Didn't V. Davis have 12 or 13 a few seasons ago? Didn't Jason Witten have a season in which he only caught 1 TD pass? I'm not suggesting that Gronkowski will fail to top 5-6 TD's next season, but anybody who is expecting another 14+ TD's hasn't been around the NFL (or fantasy football) for very long.

 

If it matters, Gronkowski will probably be my 3rd keeper, so I have no reason to bash him.

[Kingstowne Dealers 14]

Wrong. The dropoff from foster/rice/peterson/mccoy is way too big once you get to your second pick. You can still draft a stud qb in the second round.

 

I disagree. Whatever, wherever Aaron Rodgers went in anyone's draft this year he was worth every single last penny. The dropoff from Rodgers to the 2nd best QB in fantasy is 30 points, and the next guy(Brees) is 40 points behind. Your talking 20 points at the minimum every week.

 

If Rodgers is there you pull the trigger with no hesitation. If Cam is there you think about it and weigh your options.

[Dan 60]

Michael Vick is without a doubt the #1 pick.

 

Just thought I'd copy and paste the general sentiment from last year.

[steel827 2]

I am enjoying watching December football for entertainment rather than anxiety. I'll get my season over with and go with McFadden again.