week 16 def/st

[TennisMenace 156]

Im putting my faith in Tenn defense this week. I think they will come out fired up.

 

Like they did last week against lowly Indy.

[BigMek 0]

Here are some of my thoughts.

 

1. Tennessee. Before last week, Tennessee would have been a no brainer for week 16. However, my biggest fears about this defense was on full display last week. The problem is as bad as Blaine Gabbert is, Tennessee defense is just as bad. They don't generate any sacks, nor do they force many turnovers. Tennessee can be ran on just like they were ran on last week. This week, Tennessee will have no answer for MJD. What I see is MJD running all over them, and Blaine Gabbert doing check down passes to MJD all game long. MJD himself is capable of moving the ball down the field at will on Tennessee. At the same time, the Matt Hasslebeck led Tennessee offense has been horrible. This offense is going to keep that defense on the field too long giving Jacksonville more opportunities to score. I think Tennessee will disappoint alot of you guys this week. (this is coming from a guy who actually picked up tenn. def too)

 

2. Houston. As of right now, Houston is currently my starting defense. They have been my starting defense of most of the year. However, Houston def. hasn't been the same for a few weeks now. And this all coincides with Matt Schaub going down. They haven't generated that many sacks over the last 3 weeks, haven't forced many turnovers, and their offense have been anemic since Leinhart/Yates took over. I'm seeing alot of 3 and outs plus more turnovers causing the opposing team to have more opportunities to score against them. Last but not least, the heart and soul of that defense...Wade Phillips won't be on the sidelines due to the fact that he's had a surgical procedure recently. Last week was Wade's first game not being on the the sidelines....and Carolina rings up 28 pts on them. Add all of that plus the fact that Indy is playing some inspired ball with Dan Orvolsky running show. Even though Indy sucks, they are much much better with Orvolsky then they were with Painter. I'd be very concerned about Houston Def.

 

3. Seattle. Seattle does sound like the safest play out of the group. The only thing that concerns me is that SF plays mistake free football. They don't turnover the ball as much. Seattle has been playing great defense as of late. But let's be honest with ourselves here. The last 4 weeks, they've gon up against Rex Grossman, Vince Young, a crippled Sam Bradford, and Caleb Hanie. I won't frown if you start this defense. All I can say is proceed with caution.

 

 

I'm surprised that Kansas City isn't getting alot of press here. I mean this is KC we are talking about here, but I do like how that team looks with Romeo Crennel calling the shots. I read earlier that KC defense is scary to play because this was a must win game for Oakland. Last time I checked, this is also a must win game for KC as well being that they are STILL in the hunt to win the division..(although their chances are slim) I'm thinking with Crennel playing for a head coaching gig here, the game being played in Arrowhead, and with Kyle Orton leading the offense instead of suck ass Tyler Palko, I think KC defense will be a sneaky solid play. I don't think Carson Palmer does what he did last week to Detroit to KC. Detroit defense has been shot the last couple of weeks. They haven't been able to stop a nose bleed lately. KC may not have the sexiest matchup, but I don't think they will disappoint.

[SaintsInDome2006 128]

Here are some of my thoughts.

 

1. Tennessee. Before last week, Tennessee would have been a no brainer for week 16. However, my biggest fears about this defense was on full display last week. The problem is as bad as Blaine Gabbert is, Tennessee defense is just as bad. They don't generate any sacks, nor do they force many turnovers. Tennessee can be ran on just like they were ran on last week. This week, Tennessee will have no answer for MJD. What I see is MJD running all over them, and Blaine Gabbert doing check down passes to MJD all game long. MJD himself is capable of moving the ball down the field at will on Tennessee. At the same time, the Matt Hasslebeck led Tennessee offense has been horrible. This offense is going to keep that defense on the field too long giving Jacksonville more opportunities to score. I think Tennessee will disappoint alot of you guys this week. (this is coming from a guy who actually picked up tenn. def too)

 

2. Houston. As of right now, Houston is currently my starting defense. They have been my starting defense of most of the year. However, Houston def. hasn't been the same for a few weeks now. And this all coincides with Matt Schaub going down. They haven't generated that many sacks over the last 3 weeks, haven't forced many turnovers, and their offense have been anemic since Leinhart/Yates took over. I'm seeing alot of 3 and outs plus more turnovers causing the opposing team to have more opportunities to score against them. Last but not least, the heart and soul of that defense...Wade Phillips won't be on the sidelines due to the fact that he's had a surgical procedure recently. Last week was Wade's first game not being on the the sidelines....and Carolina rings up 28 pts on them. Add all of that plus the fact that Indy is playing some inspired ball with Dan Orvolsky running show. Even though Indy sucks, they are much much better with Orvolsky then they were with Painter. I'd be very concerned about Houston Def.

 

3. Seattle. Seattle does sound like the safest play out of the group. The only thing that concerns me is that SF plays mistake free football. They don't turnover the ball as much. Seattle has been playing great defense as of late. But let's be honest with ourselves here. The last 4 weeks, they've gon up against Rex Grossman, Vince Young, a crippled Sam Bradford, and Caleb Hanie. I won't frown if you start this defense. All I can say is proceed with caution.

 

 

I'm surprised that Kansas City isn't getting alot of press here. I mean this is KC we are talking about here, but I do like how that team looks with Romeo Crennel calling the shots. I read earlier that KC defense is scary to play because this was a must win game for Oakland. Last time I checked, this is also a must win game for KC as well being that they are STILL in the hunt to win the division..(although their chances are slim) I'm thinking with Crennel playing for a head coaching gig here, the game being played in Arrowhead, and with Kyle Orton leading the offense instead of suck ass Tyler Palko, I think KC defense will be a sneaky solid play. I don't think Carson Palmer does what he did last week to Detroit to KC. Detroit defense has been shot the last couple of weeks. They haven't been able to stop a nose bleed lately. KC may not have the sexiest matchup, but I don't think they will disappoint.

 

Great post, thanks for this writeup.

 

I have all 3 of Sea, Hou and Ten.

 

Right now I have Sea plugged in, and am not reaching for KC or Was on championship weekend.

 

Gabbert and Jax is tempting; but the Indy "run game" just did a number on Ten, and CJ may be dinged up and he hardly turned it on vs Indy. My main concern is keeping the matchup out of my opponent's lineup.

 

My opponent has SF and I'm liking my chances. The Pit game is no gauge, Ben was basically a statue out there. The Bal game on the other hand is an example of what can happen to SF. SF had been giving up sacks - 18 in 3 weeks - before the PIT game. Vs Pit they didn't have to take any chances. They had 1 real TD drive; the other 13 points came off bad Ben mistakes, including a TD that they got off a Ben fumble at the Pit 17. I'm not buying it. I think SF got lucky by getting Ben in that condition at just that time. -- Meanwhile Sea has just been scoring TDs, getting sacks, getting TOs, they have a shot at the playoffs, they have a shot at being a spoiler by knocking SF out of the bye, they have Lynch running like a madman, and they're at home. Just seems like an unbeatable combination.

[Matt Mueller 146]

I'm holding Seattle and Houston and researched Seattle's production over the season:

 

I know a lot has changed over the course of the season but FWIW, Seattle scored -1 in my league, the first week of the season vs San Fran.

 

I'd be nervous to start Seattle after watching SF's super ball control offense and spectacular D Monday night vs Pitt.

 

San Frans last few week opponents and D scores

 

15. Pitt 1

14 @ Arizona 10

13. St Louis 8

12. @ Baltimore 27

11. Arizona 6

10. NYG 6

9. Washington 7

8 Cleveland 3

7. BYE

6. Detroit 6

5.Tampa -2

4. @Philly 10

3. @ Cincinatti 18

2. Dallas 14

1. @ San Fran -1

 

**PS I might have messed up a few of the home, vs away games but the teams and scores are correct.

[420allstars 13]

a couple very solid posts in a row.

 

Lots to think about...

 

anyone has some info on Denver D?

[LSUtiger 9]

I'm debating long and hard about:

 

SEA v. SF

 

or

 

DEN @ BUF

 

Leaning toward DEN at this point but it's tough sitting SEA as hot as they've been of late...

[JtmoneyJag 25]

I think we can start over thinking this and that is what we normally do anyways. I'm sticking with Seattle. I can't risk playing KC. Things I like about Seattle, they have been playing extremely well, they are at home with a lot to play for, 49ers on a short week and Seattle plays the run very well. Yes, the QB's haven't been stellar, but Alex Smith isn't going to kill you either. I'm more worried about Seattle's offense helping the 49ers score then the other way around. I think at home, with a deafening crowd and a lot to play for, they should be able to, at the very least, score a decent amount of fantasy points (8-12) with the potential for more. In the Championship game, you can't risk getting negative, 0 or 1-3 points on D and I don't see Seattle doing that.

[deefree93 0]

My two options: 1.SF, playing at SEA and 2. TN home vs. JAX

 

Going with the Niners, although I do think it is a close call. The Seahawks and TJack have been playing pretty well lately as he has no INT's and over a 90 qb rating the past three games. However, I am hoping that shutting down the run will force them to gamble with some throws a bit more. I expect a solid, but not great game.

 

TN I think has more potential to put up outstanding numbers, but I can't really get behind them. I expect the Jags to be able to move the ball on the ground and the Titans just don't seem to have much of a pass rush or force many turnovers (only 5 sacks and 1 int the past 4 weeks). Although Jax is that bad that something crazy could always happen and the Titans should be desperate, and at home with slim playoff hopes on the line. Should be an ugly, low scoring game, but I don't see the Titans forcing many turnovers or getting too many sacks.

[CookieG 4]

These are some really good posts guys.. really appreciate the effort & analysis. Unfortunately, at present time.. no closer to a decision on which one to start this week. SEA looking more tempting again though.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Since I'm debating Seattle vs Houston, but 99% going Houston unless convinced otherwise, I'd decided to break down defense vs Indy for the season.

 

15. Tenn 2

14. @ Baltimore 14

13. @ New England 8

12. Carolina 9

11. BYE

10. Jax 23

9. Atlanta 15

8. @ Tenn 20

7. New Orleans 18

6. Cincinatti 17

5. @ KC 0

4. Tampa 11

3. Pitt 11

2. Cleveland 9

1. Houston 14

 

 

** Thoughts on Houston after looking at this. VS Indy has been a good play all year. Yes I think they have gotten better recently but I'd also factor in their recent low outputs to facing some bad defenses like Carolina, New England and arguably Tenn although I think they just laid an egg in that game.

 

The last 'good' D they've played was Baltimore and they surrendered 14.

 

I could see Houston having a very similar output.

 

I know Indy is a bit better than they were week 1 and Houston maybe a bit worse but Houston can still run the ball and control the clock. Houston can still get to the quarterback for sacks.

 

When I'm choosing vs Seattle vs San Fran, -1 point scored in their first matchup of the year, and Houston vs Indy, 14 points scored in their last matchup of the year, I'm leaning Houston.

 

Hopefully these posts are helpful to others weighing their options.

[JtmoneyJag 25]

Since I'm debating Seattle vs Houston, but 99% going Houston unless convinced otherwise, I'd decided to break down defense vs Indy for the season.

 

15. Tenn 2

14. @ Baltimore 14

13. @ New England 8

12. Carolina 9

11. BYE

10. Jax 23

9. Atlanta 15

8. @ Tenn 20

7. New Orleans 18

6. Cincinatti 17

5. @ KC 0

4. Tampa 11

3. Pitt 11

2. Cleveland 9

1. Houston 14

 

 

** Thoughts on Houston after looking at this. VS Indy has been a good play all year. Yes I think they have gotten better recently but I'd also factor in their recent low outputs to facing some bad defenses like Carolina, New England and arguably Tenn although I think they just laid an egg in that game.

 

The last 'good' D they've played was Baltimore and they surrendered 14.

 

I could see Houston having a very similar output.

 

I know Indy is a bit better than they were week 1 and Houston maybe a bit worse but Houston can still run the ball and control the clock. Houston can still get to the quarterback for sacks.

 

When I'm choosing vs Seattle vs San Fran, -1 point scored in their first matchup of the year, and Houston vs Indy, 14 points scored in their last matchup of the year, I'm leaning Houston.

 

Hopefully these posts are helpful to others weighing their options.

 

If I had the option to choose Houston over Seattle, I may do it, but don't. I don't like the -1 for Seattle against 49ers on their first meeting, but I think this situation is completely different. It'll be interesting to see. I just need one more good game from that Seattle D!

[Matt Mueller 146]

If I had the option to choose Houston over Seattle, I may do it, but don't. I don't like the -1 for Seattle against 49ers on their first meeting, but I think this situation is completely different. It'll be interesting to see. I just need one more good game from that Seattle D!

 

I know the home/road differences but I just don't buy that Seattle's D is that much better than Pitt's D even without Harrison and they couldn't get jack done in a very important game. Maybe if they weren't playing from behind it would have been different...

 

I know Seattle has been great recently but like someone said look at the past 4 qbs they have faced.

Grossman, Young, Bradford and Hanie.

 

The fact remains that in the last matchup of Seattle and San Fran, Seattle scored -1. And in San Fran's most recent televised huge game, they played lights out ball control football and allowed another relatively elite D in Pittsburgh, although turnover challenged and hurting with Big Ben, to 1 point. Those are facts I don't like too much.

 

I don't take stock in any one fantasy 'expert's opinion but if someone finds Seattle ranked above Houston somewhere for this week please post it here.

 

FWIW, fantasy pros has Houston ranked 5 and Seattle 11. That fool Funston has Houston green lighted and Seattle yellow'd.

 

ESPN has them ranked 5 and 6th respectively.

 

Houston blurb: ' 'Houston piled up 18 standard-league points against Indy in Week 1, and fantasy D/STs have scored the second-most points when facing the Colts this year. Play the Texans D with confidence.'

 

Seattle blurb: 'With 10 turnovers and three scores in the past three weeks, we'd be willing to take a flyer on the Seahawks, even against a 49ers team they allowed to score 33 points in Week 1.'

 

I like this discussion and appreciate everyone's input.

[TimHauck 1,801]

Between the Texans and Seahawks, I'd say the Seahawks are the safer play, but the Texans could put up a nice point total against the Colts, who despite beating the Titans last week, still rank last against opposing defenses. Throw the Texans performance against Carolina in there, and there's definitely some risk.

 

The Seahawks on the other hand have had three straight great weeks from their defense, and although the 49ers scored 33 on them in week 1, there was only even one other week that the 49ers scored more than 27, which in my leauge is the only other week where the opposing defense put up a negative fantasy point total. On the flip side, only two defenses (Baltimore and Cincy) have had double digit fantasy totals against them. So I think the Seahawks are a safe bet for at least 5 fantasy points.

 

As far as the other defenses being mentioned, I don't think I could bring myself to start Washington, KC, or even Tennessee in the finals. I'm rolling with my draft choice of the Packers.

[krusin 0]

Most of the defenses that have been talked about so far are taken in my league, I am debating Washington or Carolina...

 

Anybody think that Carolina would be decent against Tampa?

Carolina is at home, Tampa is falling apart... Hell, Jacksonville destroyed Tampa 2 weeks ago.

Carolina also did a nice job last week holding Houston to 13 pts.

 

Any thoughts?

[deefree93 0]

Most of the defenses that have been talked about so far are taken in my league, I am debating Washington or Carolina...

 

Anybody think that Carolina would be decent against Tampa?

Carolina is at home, Tampa is falling apart... Hell, Jacksonville destroyed Tampa 2 weeks ago.

Carolina also did a nice job last week holding Houston to 13 pts.

 

Any thoughts?

 

I think the Skins are a pretty solid play. Their D is actually pretty good in real life (unlike Carolina) and looked pretty strong last week. Minny has been giving up alot of points to D's lately and AP is probably still not 100%

 

Minny's D points against the past few weeks (ESPN Scoring)

 

Week Opponent Points Allowed

10 @GB 16

11 Oak 15

12 @Atl 7

13 Den 9

14 @Det 24

15 NO 8

[seadog54 20]

i'm rollin with the deadskins

 

I think the Skins are a pretty solid play. Their D is actually pretty good in real life (unlike Carolina) and looked pretty strong last week. Minny has been giving up alot of points to D's lately and AP is probably still not 100%

 

Minny's D points against the past few weeks (ESPN Scoring)

 

Week Opponent Points Allowed

10 @GB 16

11 Oak 15

12 @Atl 7

13 Den 9

14 @Det 24

15 NO 8

[TimHauck 1,801]

Most of the defenses that have been talked about so far are taken in my league, I am debating Washington or Carolina...

 

Anybody think that Carolina would be decent against Tampa?

Carolina is at home, Tampa is falling apart... Hell, Jacksonville destroyed Tampa 2 weeks ago.

Carolina also did a nice job last week holding Houston to 13 pts.

 

Any thoughts?

 

But aren't any of them taken by you? Yes, I know all the cool kids stream defenses, but usually in the process of streaming defenses you end up with one that's actually consistently decent. What teams got you to the finals?

[Matt Mueller 146]

I'd play the skins over carolina.

[krusin 0]

But aren't any of them taken by you? Yes, I know all the cool kids stream defenses, but usually in the process of streaming defenses you end up with one that's actually consistently decent. What teams got you to the finals?

 

I have owned and dumped at least 7 defenses this season, been playing the match-ups and it has been working out well. Was rolling with Dallas and Detroit until this past week. I don't like either of those for week 16 championship, so looking for a plug in.

My RB's SUCK since I had Charles and Murray get injured(I traded R. White for Murray wk 10... BAD) I've been winning on Brees & WR's (12 team PPR league).

 

I'll probably go with Washington.

 

My Team is:

QB: Brees

WR: Colston, M Austin, Robinson, D Thomas, Manningham

TE: Hernandez

RB: Bradshaw, Jacobs, K Smith, Tolbert, Barber, Kahlil Bell

K: Kasay

D: Washington

[wildbluefan 0]

GOLDEN RULE for defenses (I have same 2) : When in doubt, pick the HOME defense (Seattle), especially one with a loud and deafening crowd !

[Matt Mueller 146]

If anyone cares about my Houston-Seattle saga fanduel has Seattle ranked 4th and Houston 8th.

[stinkerbe11 0]

I'm debating the skins over houston. i have both. leaning houston but skins are at home... there've been some really good posts in this thread. very helpful but i'm still waffling

[MR_never.nude 0]

here's one for people to discuss:

 

SF @ SEA

DEN @ BUF

CIN vs ARI

 

any suggestions?!

[CookieG 4]

I'm thinking i'm personally down to either Cincy or Seattle. They're both home.. and as much as i'd like to play "pick on Blaine Gabbert".. it seems that every rankings source i use has the former two above TEN. Getting gashed by the Colts will do that I guess.

 

I rode the Skins early in the season.. even without Landry, that team can play D.. it's just been gameflow issues (i.e. them falling behind) and their crap offense that's hurt them. Vikes have given up the most points to DSTs in the last five weeks.. so they're a really solid play IMO.

 

I can't decide if i'm "chasing points", with both the SEA DST & C.J. Spiller this week.. there's a good chance I sit them both.

 

That said (yes, i'm still focking waffling here), the taste of the Bungles sucking mightily last week in St. L has me still on the fence.

 

[dreen626 17]

Texans vs INDY or Titans vs Jags?

 

which one should i play?

[Matt Mueller 146]

here's one for people to discuss:

 

SF @ SEA

DEN @ BUF

CIN vs ARI

 

any suggestions?!

 

Hopefully I don't steer you in the wrong direction but id play Denver.

 

Fitz has been throwing picks on the reg. Von miller and Denver's pass rush should be in full force.

 

I think Denver might control the clock-which could limit defensive scoring opportunities-but I think they are a solid play with upside.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Texans vs INDY or Titans vs Jags?

 

which one should i play?

 

I'm playing Houston tonight and I'd play them over tenn.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Houston D 5 minutes in: Fumble recovery, 2 sacks

[Matt Mueller 146]

Houston D 5 minutes in: Fumble recovery, 2 sacks

 

Started well ended badly. Awfully officiated game. Big props to Orlovksy. He played great.

[murf74 461]

Skins seem safe with a very high ceiling

[jstep13 0]

I have a choice between these 3 defenses, which should I take?

 

• 
   
  
• NE at home vs. Mia (I know NE secondary sucks but Mia tends to fold on the road in cold weather in Dec but NE knows they can simply outscore MIA and may not value defense as much)
  
• NYJ at home vs. NYG (Jets D will be hyped and value good D since their offense is suspect. However Eli can play big games against good defenses)
  
• Phi on road vs Dallas (Phi has good D and with Cowboys running game suspect can force Romo into turnovers - game could be a shootout though as well)
  

 

Any advice which one I should take? They all have their pros and cons. I'm a FF rookie and made it to my league's championship so I'm pretty excited!

[jaybny 2]

Anyone want to talk me out of Houston @ Indy?

 

I'm holding Seattle too and have a claim in for Washington...

 

 

Houston is ranked #5 at fantasypros...

 

http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/dst.php

 

same here .. its Sea vs Wash... but this is Sea at home... they can be really good... and who knows, maybe Min will put up big numbers against Wash.

 

think im sticking with Sea and the 12th man.

[DrG 94]

I think it was Tim that mentioned the 49ers only scoring 27 one other time against the Giants?

They put up 48 vs. Tampa.

b

Seattle looks a medium play to me for all the reasons listed. That looks like a close game that might go 24-17 or 24-20 either way.

Week 1, 14 49ers pts came on returns so their offense really only gave them 17.

 

I agree Denver at Buffalo is intriguing, as is Arizona @ Cinci, but I'm going to roll with

 

WA home vs. the Vikes and am debating Grossman over Eli just because of the matchups.

[ryansee 0]

championship game, who should I play:

 

NYJ against the Giants. Jets D helped get me here, played them all season. Defenses have not done much against the Giants in the past 5 weeks though. Also Ballard and Manningham seem like they will be out.

 

WAS against MIN. Just picked them up off waivers. MIN apparently giving up a lot to defenses in the last 5 weeks, but fantasy-wise WAS D hasn't done anywhere near as much as NYJ over the course of the season. Also, I am playing Percy Harvin.

 

I've been thinking about it all week and can't come to a decision.

[murf74 461]

championship game, who should I play:

 

NYJ against the Giants. Jets D helped get me here, played them all season. Defenses have not done much against the Giants in the past 5 weeks though. Also Ballard and Manningham seem like they will be out.

 

WAS against MIN. Just picked them up off waivers. MIN apparently giving up a lot to defenses in the last 5 weeks, but fantasy-wise WAS D hasn't done anywhere near as much as NYJ over the course of the season. Also, I am playing Percy Harvin.

 

I've been thinking about it all week and can't come to a decision.

 

I wouldn't get too cute here. Jets are a D you can set and forget especially vs a team that can turn it over and give up the sacks...ballad and Mario are out too.

 

What do you think wash. Cincinnati or Seattle?

[TimHauck 1,801]

DrG - I said they only scored more than 27 one other time. I was referring to the Tampa game.

[DrG 94]

Tim, thought they also got 27 v Philly or NYG

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

Alright, you guys convinced me. I just switched to the KC defense and dropped the Jacksonville defense. I understand the the home field advantage and the big play possibility with Carson Palmer at the helm. Let's go KC!

[TennisMenace 156]

Alright, you guys convinced me. I just switched to the KC defense and dropped the Jacksonville defense. I understand the the home field advantage and the big play possibility with Carson Palmer at the helm. Let's go KC!

 

I don't think this will pan out for you.

 

1. Last week was last week - letdown is inevitable

2. Carson is not rusty anymore and Oakland has plenty of weapons.

[SaintsInDome2006 128]

I'm holding Seattle and Houston and researched Seattle's production over the season:

 

I know a lot has changed over the course of the season but FWIW, Seattle scored -1 in my league, the first week of the season vs San Fran.

 

I'd be nervous to start Seattle after watching SF's super ball control offense and spectacular D Monday night vs Pitt.

 

San Frans last few week opponents and D scores

 

15. Pitt 1

14 @ Arizona 10

13. St Louis 8

12. @ Baltimore 27

11. Arizona 6

10. NYG 6

9. Washington 7

8 Cleveland 3

7. BYE

6. Detroit 6

5.Tampa -2

4. @Philly 10

3. @ Cincinatti 18

2. Dallas 14

1. @ San Fran -1

 

**PS I might have messed up a few of the home, vs away games but the teams and scores are correct.

 

Yaknow, that 10 and 8 from ARI and StL don't look too, too bad, and of course the Bal game. This actually makes me feel better, have `em penciled in still over TEN.