Chance of a Cam Newton Regression?

[jocstrap 8]

Why is everyone comparing CN to Vick and Freeman?

 

 

I was kind of thinking Kordell Stewart and his fantastic year, then his plummett from the world of fantasy football the next year.

[p00h 85]

If any regression happens with Cam its that the rushing will inevitably calm down. Hell take a beating and like Vick or any other QB that relies on their legs that much its gonna catch up to him. Teams will start doing what KC did to Tebow on Sunday: Make him stay in that pocket and throw. Now, Newton is a better passer than Tebow could ever hope to be but it will still cause his game to change and it may or may not work out.

 

Cam is a fairly safe pick next year but dont overdo it. His cheap rushing yards and scores are brutally obnoxious...

 

 

wow. The only things missing from this post are 1) he's a running qb, and 2) he got all his stats in garbage time this year!

 

Are you kidding me, dude passed at a 60% completion rate and had 250 passing yards a game in a rookie season with no camp and not a lot of weapons in the passing game...

 

 

what the F does this even mean: His cheap rushing yards and scores are brutally obnoxious...

 

teams will force him to stay in the pocket and throw?!?!? really?!?!?!? you mean they'll force him to use that cannon of an arm of his, the one which he showed fairly uncanny accuracy with in his rookie year, the one that can get the ball 60 yards downfield with the flick of a wrist...

 

this is also fun: Hell take a beating and like Vick or any other QB that relies on their legs that much its gonna catch up to him.

 

have you seen the size of Cam? Have you seen the size of vick?!? All black qbs are the same to you???

 

Cam Newton: 6'5, 250 lbs. NFL lbs are weary of contact with this beast...

Michael Vick: 6'0 215 lbs. NFL lbs wreck him at any given chance...

 

you and eveyone else that have stereotyped Cam into what you believe him to be are in for a very very rude awakening...

[p00h 85]

Why is everyone comparing CN to Vick and Freeman?

 

 

anyone that does this has not only not seen cam play, but are likely closeted racists. All blacks are the same to them. ANd a black qb, oh noes! Lord have mercy. They's only good for running around like monkeys, and they all act the same. Hide the white womens!!!

[Joey Gladstone 33]

I was kind of thinking Kordell Stewart and his fantastic year, then his plummett from the world of fantasy football the next year.

 

Kordell didn't have a fraction of Cam's talents as a passer. He was a gimmick who had two flukey good seasons.

[Joey Gladstone 33]

anyone that does this has not only not seen cam play, but are likely closeted racists. All blacks are the same to them. ANd a black qb, oh noes! Lord have mercy. They's only good for running around like monkeys, and they all act the same. Hide the fat white womens!!!

 

fixed

[nobody 2,044]

anyone that does this has not only not seen cam play, but are likely closeted racists. All blacks are the same to them. ANd a black qb, oh noes! Lord have mercy. They's only good for running around like monkeys, and they all act the same. Hide the white womens!!!

 

 

If you had any decency, you'ld delete this post and hide the proof of your ugly, ignorant intolerance.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Listen I'm not preaching a regression. I clearly started this thread b/c I didn't own or watch Newton much but looking into the passing numbers I found this noteworthy.

 

Passing first 4 games= 1,386 or 346.6 per game

 

Passing last 12 games =2,655 or 221.5 per game*

 

* Averaged only 159 yards passing the final 3 games of the season

[Matt Mueller 146]

^ Curious what you guys make of these passing numbers.

[nobody 2,044]

^ Curious what you guys make of these passing numbers.

 

It's the Tebow effect. Once teams know how to defend you, the numbers fall off.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

It's the Tebow effect. Once teams know how to defend you, the numbers fall off.

Some qbs you just cant defend against. The 2 major components of his game are his ability to scramble, and by scramble i mean run like a gazelle, and his deep ball. So you say all you have to do is figure him out and defend him. How do you defend a guy that can throw it that far and run? You need a safety deep which takes him out of the play against the run.

 

Yeah his shorter passes werent as acurate but like its been said, he is a rookie. If he can complete his shorter throws at a higher percentage then how do you just figure out a qb who can run with the best of them, throw a deep ball with the best of them, and complete underneath routes at a consistant clip? Yeah all defenses have to do with aaron rodgers is just figure him out like they did tebow. Tebow was barely a college level passer and that is who you compare cam to. You dont stop elite talent. The chances of regression are slim and if they get a good wr across from an aging smith cam could put up numbers like the ones suggested by matthew berry for vick this year.

 

Btw i wonder if berry's strategy for this year is "draft cam first overall then gronk in second round"

[koopatroopa 0]

With the numbers he put up in his rookie campaign, one has to almost expect some sort of regression, especially in the passing yards genre, that wil be hard for him to match.

His ability inside the pocket (he wasn't supposed to have any) and outside the pocket will help him maintain his current level of play. Newton is physically talented an tough beyond what is needed, and also about as motivated as a rookie QB can come.

Next season he will need to put up staggering numbers again if the Panthers want to win, but as his team (hopefully) places some talent around him, less will be required of him.

Yes his stats were amazing, but his team needed that from him, he needs a team that can do some of the work for him.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

With the numbers he put up in his rookie campaign, one has to almost expect some sort of regression, especially in the passing yards genre, that wil be hard for him to match.

His ability inside the pocket (he wasn't supposed to have any) and outside the pocket will help him maintain his current level of play. Newton is physically talented an tough beyond what is needed, and also about as motivated as a rookie QB can come.

Next season he will need to put up staggering numbers again if the Panthers want to win, but as his team (hopefully) places some talent around him, less will be required of him.

Yes his stats were amazing, but his team needed that from him, he needs a team that can do some of the work for him.

Actually, I think he could make progress in the passing game. I think a regression could come in the running game.

 

As far as offense goes, he has weapons. Smitty, Olsen, both RB's....if they could add another decent WR through FA, or maybe the draft, their offense could be deadly.

[koopatroopa 0]

Actually, I think he could make progress in the passing game. I think a regression could come in the running game.

 

As far as offense goes, he has weapons. Smitty, Olsen, both RB's....if they could add another decent WR through FA, or maybe the draft, their offense could be deadly.

 

one of my "Bold Predictions" for next season. Cam won't hit 4000 yards.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

one of my "Bold Predictions" for next season. Cam won't hit 4000 yards.

That's fair and I agree passing yardage very well will fall.

 

I could also see him boosting his passing TD's while his rushing TD's fall. Especially if they add a complementary WR to Smitty.

 

3,850 yards passing, 28 TD's. 600 yards rushing, 8 TD's. Less total yards, more total TD's.

[koopatroopa 0]

I can feel that, less yardage as a player, but more TD's (point production) perhaps.

[Matt Mueller 146]

'Btw i wonder if berry's strategy for this year is "draft cam first overall then gronk in second round" '

 

God Berry is such a tool. I know let's draft 2 players who had career seasons and both missed a bunch of games 1 and 2 overall.

 

What....that didn't work out?

 

I'm ashamed to share a name with this fool.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

'Btw i wonder if berry's strategy for this year is "draft cam first overall then gronk in second round" '

 

God Berry is such a tool. I know let's draft 2 players who had career seasons and both missed a bunch of games 1 and 2 overall.

 

What....that didn't work out?

 

I'm ashamed to share a name with this fool.

Berry is a genius and so is Todd McShay. Neither has a clue about what they're talking about, history prooves them both to be wayyyyyyyy off, yet they're probably drawing nice paychecks from the 4 letter network. Especially McGay.

[nobody 2,044]

Some qbs you just cant defend against. The 2 major components of his game are his ability to scramble, and by scramble i mean run like a gazelle, and his deep ball. So you say all you have to do is figure him out and defend him. How do you defend a guy that can throw it that far and run? You need a safety deep which takes him out of the play against the run.

 

Yeah his shorter passes werent as acurate but like its been said, he is a rookie. If he can complete his shorter throws at a higher percentage then how do you just figure out a qb who can run with the best of them, throw a deep ball with the best of them, and complete underneath routes at a consistant clip? Yeah all defenses have to do with aaron rodgers is just figure him out like they did tebow. Tebow was barely a college level passer and that is who you compare cam to. You dont stop elite talent. The chances of regression are slim and if they get a good wr across from an aging smith cam could put up numbers like the ones suggested by matthew berry for vick this year.

 

You could have said the same thing about Vick last year. Most players have tendencies, especially young ones. Most offensive systems have tendencies. You figure out the tendencies and you can stop them. The great quarterbacks (like Rodgers) and coaches (like Belichick) recognize what the defense is doing to adjust and adapt quickly.

 

When are you guys going to learn that it's hard to have a career year every year?

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

You could have said the same thing about Vick last year. Most players have tendencies, especially young ones. Most offensive systems have tendencies. You figure out the tendencies and you can stop them. The great quarterbacks (like Rodgers) and coaches (like Belichick) recognize what the defense is doing to adjust and adapt quickly.

 

When are you guys going to learn that it's hard to have a career year every year?

7 QB's threw for over 4,000 yards this year. And 3 threw for over 5,000 yards. This is most likely a direct result of the rules in the "New" NFL. And remember when 25 TD's was a great season? Now it's considered average to a letdown. The bloated stats are telling me that what we used to think a career year was, number-wise, may now be just a good year.

 

Newton put together an amazing rookie season in an NFL lockout year where he had very little time to prepare. I would agree that opposing teams with film of Cam will now change how they lineup against him but you also need to consider that Newton's game will progress, not stay the same.

[Matt Mueller 146]

And the only reason I brought up Vick was that he's probably the closest thing rushing wise to Cam that we have seen no?

 

Cam may break the trend, that's what I am asking by starting this thread, but history has shown us that, at least with Vick, huge rushing td numbers aren't usually duplicated the next year.

 

Vick 2002 -8 rushing tds

2003 - 1 rushing td

2005- 6 rushing tds

2006- 2 rushing tds

2010- 9 rushing tds

2011- 1 rushing td

 

 

So I ask the question, do you think Cam will come close to repeating his rushing td totals from next season? The yards are nice but it was the tds that made him elite.

 

I don't have an answer.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

And the only reason I brought up Vick was that he's probably the closest thing rushing wise to Cam that we have seen no?

 

Cam may break the trend, that's what I am asking my starting this thread, but history has shown us that, at least with Vick, huge rushing td numbers aren't usually duplicated the next year.

 

Vick 2002 -8 rushing tds

2003 - 1 rushing td

2005- 6 rushing tds

2006- 2 rushing tds

2010- 9 rushing tds

2011- 1 rushing td

 

 

So I ask the question, do you think Cam will come close to repeating his rushing td totals from next season? The yards are nice but it was the tds that made him elite.

 

I don't have an answer.

9 of Cam's TD's came from the 6 yard line and in. He probably won't have as many rushing TD's as this year but I don't see it plummeting to 1 or 2 rushing TD's like Vick either. Vick is so stinking small that he has no business running it in from the goal line unless it's a bootleg or scramble type play. Cam's a very different story near the goal line.

[Matt Mueller 146]

9 of Cam's TD's came from the 6 yard line and in. He probably won't have as many rushing TD's as this year but I don't see it plummeting to 1 or 2 rushing TD's like Vick either. Vick is so stinking small that he has no business running it in from the goal line unless it's a bootleg or scramble type play. Cam's a very different story near the goal line.

 

Great point. I just checked his game log and he was crazy consistent too. 7 tds in the first 8 games and 7 tds in the last 8 games.

[Houston Texans 10]

And the only reason I brought up Vick was that he's probably the closest thing rushing wise to Cam that we have seen no?

 

Cam may break the trend, that's what I am asking by starting this thread, but history has shown us that, at least with Vick, huge rushing td numbers aren't usually duplicated the next year.

 

Vick 2002 -8 rushing tds

2003 - 1 rushing td

2005- 6 rushing tds

2006- 2 rushing tds

2010- 9 rushing tds

2011- 1 rushing td

 

 

So I ask the question, do you think Cam will come close to repeating his rushing td totals from next season? The yards are nice but it was the tds that made him elite.

 

I don't have an answer.

I'd argue that Randall Cunningham is a better comparison to Newton (at least with regards to running). He wasn't as big as Cam, but he wasn't as small as Vick. So, maybe his rush TD totals may have been more stable

[nobody 2,044]

I'm just playing the percentages when I say he's going to regress. He either regresses like many other players that blew up for a year before him, or he'll put up the best statistics over his career than other other player that has ever played.

 

What do you guys think is more likely? A reversion to the mean or that we're about to witness the greatest statistical career that's ever happened in the NFL?

[Matt Mueller 146]

I'd argue that Randall Cunningham is a better comparison to Newton (at least with regards to running). He wasn't as big as Cam, but he wasn't as small as Vick. So, maybe his rush TD totals may have been more stable

 

Randall was before my time. I've seen some clips but never got to watch him in action.

 

Anyone want to pull up his rushing statistics?

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

I'm just playing the percentages when I say he's going to regress. He either regresses like many other players that blew up for a year before him, or he'll put up the best statistics over his career than other other player that has ever played.

 

What do you guys think is more likely? A reversion to the mean or that we're about to witness the greatest statistical career that's ever happened in the NFL?

I think he could have a great statistical career, but also he'll be joined by others having great statistical careers. It's today's NFL.

 

I believe he could regress in the passing yardage department but could progress in the passing TD department. I also believe his rushing yardage will go down, as will his rushing TD's. Like I mentioned before, his passing numbers could drop to about 3,800+ and his rushing numbers to about 600 yards. And I could see his rushing td's drop to about 8 or so next year. But I can also see him throwing for about 8 more td's than he did this year.

 

The offseason will do him good, if he's committed....and it looks as though he's all in. And if they were to add a talented FA WR across from Smith, then the sky could be the limit. Even a guy like Garcon from Indy could be a good grab for Carolina.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

You could have said the same thing about Vick last year. Most players have tendencies, especially young ones. Most offensive systems have tendencies. You figure out the tendencies and you can stop them. The great quarterbacks (like Rodgers) and coaches (like Belichick) recognize what the defense is doing to adjust and adapt quickly.

 

When are you guys going to learn that it's hard to have a career year every year?

The main reason why vick didnt put up those sane stats is because their o line was horrific in pass defense. Even if he is the most mobile guy to ever play, there is no way he can avoid a jailbreak at the line every time. That follows up the the secpnd reason, he was playing injured, cuncussed, or not playing because of injury most of the year. Vick showed what he could do at the end of the year once the offense started to gel.

 

Cam has a very good o line. Also when you say defenses figure out tendencies usually that is against a qb with a dificiency that no one was exploiting but the defenses finally figured out how. What is this tendency? For vick originally it was a run first mind set. Cam could be that qb who knows the exact moment to run every time. That is a very unique talent considering most running qbs usually pull the ball down a little early with a run first mentality.

 

Im not saying its a sure thing but i think percentage wise it leans toward progression instead of regression. So again i ask what is this tendency that cant be fixed by an offseason of training?

[Fantasy Noob 10]

I am a little worried because he has had so much success so early. I hope he keeps working hard, with his talent any improvement in his passing game and he could be in the top three QB's in the NFL for years. I just worry that because he is such an athletic freak he relies too much on his legs for too long and stunts his growth as a QB.

 

I think his sophmore season is going to be rough, not as bad as Bradford or Freeman but a significant dip in total numbers. If they could get him a young elite WR to grow with that would help alot.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Jamey Eisenberg's take on the top 12 qbs for 2012.

 

Newton ranks 4th.

 

http://fantasynews.cbssports.com/fantasyfootball/story/16811142/offseason-extra-quarterback-top-12

[Stewburtx8 67]

Randall was before my time. I've seen some clips but never got to watch him in action.

 

Anyone want to pull up his rushing statistics?

 

 

I don't think Cunningham is a very good comparison to Cam either. Cam is about 35+ lbs bigger than Randall was as well. But since you asked, here were Randall's rushing stats during his prime (age 23 to 29):

 

1986- 540 yards, 5 TD's

1987- 505 yards, 3 TD's

1988- 624 yards, 6 TD's

1989- 621 yards, 4 TD's

1990- 942 yards, 5 TD's

1991- missed entire season

1992- 549 yards, 5 TD's

 

But as I said above, Randall was never used the way Cam was used this season. Cam is a completely different animal because he is essentially his teams goalline back. I don't see any reason that will change over the next couple years at least.

[IGotWorms 3,315]

I'm pretty interested in this topic since I can keep Cam Newton in one league for next to nothing. Only problem is I have some other pretty good keeper options as well.

 

In the end, I'll probably keep Cam because he should be good next year and may be even better than this year. But I do think there is enough of a chance of regression that I wouldn't take him in the first four rounds in a regular draft (which is where I'm guessing his ADP will end up).

 

As others have said, the rushing stats may come down a bit and he did get a lot of garbage time points. Plus what the Panthers did this year obviously didn't get them a lot of wins. If the coaching staff is smart, they'll try to alter their offensive game a bit next year to achieve more success in the wins and losses column. That could mean less stats for Cam.

[IGotWorms 3,315]

have you seen the size of Cam? Have you seen the size of vick?!? All black qbs are the same to you???

 

Cam Newton: 6'5, 250 lbs. NFL lbs are weary of contact with this beast...

Michael Vick: 6'0 215 lbs. NFL lbs wreck him at any given chance...

 

WARY.

 

"Weary" means "tired".

 

"Wary" means "cautious of".

 

Why does everyone seem to get this wrong?

[Natetradomus 0]

Steve smith will be a year older. They'll need to land more targets in the off season. Not sure where they are in the draft, maybe blackmoon.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

As others have said, the rushing stats may come down a bit and he did get a lot of garbage time points. Plus what the Panthers did this year obviously didn't get them a lot of wins. If the coaching staff is smart, they'll try to alter their offensive game a bit next year to achieve more success in the wins and losses column. That could mean less stats for Cam.

Did the lack of wins really have much to do with the offense? Offense tied with San Diego for 5th overall in the NFL at 25.4 PPG.

 

I think the addition of another WR would be interesting, whether it be Blackmon or Floyd in the 1st round of the draft, possibly Alson Jeffrey if he falls into to them in the 2nd round of the draft, or a FA. FA may make the most sense so they can devote almost their entire draft to defense.

 

I don't think playing more conservative on offense is the answer, especially not in today's NFL. Carolina has New Orleans and Atlanta in their division so they better be equipped to put up big numbers on offense if needed.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Did the lack of wins really have much to do with the offense? Offense tied with San Diego for 5th overall in the NFL at 25.4 PPG.

 

I think the addition of another WR would be interesting, whether it be Blackmon or Floyd in the 1st round of the draft, possibly Alson Jeffrey if he falls into to them in the 2nd round of the draft, or a FA. FA may make the most sense so they can devote almost their entire draft to defense.

 

I don't think playing more conservative on offense is the answer, especially not in today's NFL. Carolina has New Orleans and Atlanta in their division so they better be equipped to put up big numbers on offense if needed.

 

 

If Cam does have a downturn it might be that the running backs start pulling their weight, especially around the goal line. Dwill seemed to turn it on late in the season.

[kcBlitzkrieg 17]

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7459365/report-tampa-bay-buccaneers-interview-carolina-panthers-rob-chudzinski

 

 

Depending on who would replace Chud as OC I see this as a major factor that would lead to a regression. More important than anything else stated in this thread (other than the passing yardage split MM posted regarding the 1st 4 games and the last 12).

 

The downfield, vertical attack obviously plays heavily into Cam's strengths and there is no denying the designed runs in the redzone make Cam THE goal line back.

 

This will be something to watch closely...