Skill Level of Fantasy Football'ers

[BufordT 434]

I remember 12-15+ years ago at some drafts you could take a look around and find 4-5 guys (or girls)who had absolutely no chance at winning. They'd waltz into the draft with their FF magazine from mid-June with out of date info and draft guys who lost their starting job, or were injured, or have been cut, or what have you.

 

These days with the web, these same low IQ people who basically made their donations each year can do a quick search and find an up-to-date cheatsheet complete with little red crosses next to the name of injured players and draft more competitively than ever before. And for those of us who make our own cheatsheets, deep down inside we know that our personal cheatsheet isn't really any better than the cheatsheet you can download from FFToday.... for free. Bottom line, you can't out-work people at this game the same way you could in the past.

 

1. Does this board agree with this assessment?

2. How do some of you get an "edge" on the competition?

 

I been playing same 3 leagues for the past 10-11 years (at least 1 league for about 17-18 yrs) and last year was the first year I didn't make the playoffs in at least one league (not many around here would admit that)....heck, I can't remember not making the playoffs in at least 2 leagues but for the reasons stated above, I may need a fresh approach. Thanks for any help.

[Frozenbeernuts 2,264]

I remember 12-15+ years ago at some drafts you could take a look around and find 4-5 guys (or girls)who had absolutely no chance at winning. They'd waltz into the draft with their FF magazine from mid-June with out of date info and draft guys who lost their starting job, or were injured, or have been cut, or what have you.

 

These days with the web, these same low IQ people who basically made their donations each year can do a quick search and find an up-to-date cheatsheet complete with little red crosses next to the name of injured players and draft more competitively than ever before. And for those of us who make our own cheatsheets, deep down inside we know that our personal cheatsheet isn't really any better than the cheatsheet you can download from FFToday.... for free. Bottom line, you can't out-work people at this game the same way you could in the past.

 

1. Does this board agree with this assessment?

2. How do some of you get an "edge" on the competition?

 

I been playing same 3 leagues for the past 10-11 years (at least 1 league for about 17-18 yrs) and last year was the first year I didn't make the playoffs in at least one league (not many around here would admit that)....heck, I can't remember not making the playoffs in at least 2 leagues but for the reasons stated above, I may need a fresh approach. Thanks for any help.

For one I see you have been a member since 2003 and only have 283 posts. I would suggest getting on the boards more.

 

Second I do not trust others cheat sheets as much as my own. 2 years ago when Foster broke out I had him as a top 10 drafted rb and had a great feeling his potential was much more. He was still being touted as the 20th or so rb off the board by most "expert" sites. I did get lucky on that one but I do not see any advantage to drafting BPA off of a websites rankings. I have seen guys get their teams off of BPA cheat sheets because he wasn't at the draft and usually they end up with the worst team.

[BufordT 434]

For one I see you have been a member since 2003 and only have 283 posts. I would suggest getting on the boards more.

 

BufordT likes to pick his spots.

 

BufordT's alter-ego might be more active.

[Phurfur 70]

I would agree if someone paid for a service and got daily updates, injury reports, predictions etc. I have noticed these people are on the cutting edge and one step ahead of me very often but the free content has always always been there it is just easier to get today.

 

Drafting a good team is only about 40% of the battle.

[Pecos Rattlers 5]

I think the web keeps people from making absolutely horrible decisions (like the guy who lost his starting job two weeks ago) but it doesn't help with everything. Remember, these are the people who just want an answer without doing any analysis of their own.

 

Rank by your league's stats. Likely the casual player is using a generic top 20 list rather than customizing the stats to your league's settings. You can get a jump on these people by entering your league's settings on a site like this one & then ranking players based on last year's fantasy points and this year's projections. Not exactly rocket science, but it's something that the casual fan probably doesn't do.

 

Do Sleeper research. I don't post a ton here, but just reading the boards I am usually clued into 1-3 decent sleepers that aren't on generic top 20 lists at espn.com or such sites. I wouldn't recommend just blinding taking any suggestions: rather use it as a starting point for your own research.

 

Take risk based on your research. Casual players will often follow a pretty simple formula every time & aren't as likely to take risks that could have big payoffs. If you are supremely confident that say ... Ronnie Hillman is the next big thing (not saying I do), then take a risk based on it. Don't draft RB round 1, 2 & 3 only to pick him up later as a sleeper. Count on him as one of your starting RBs and get value at other positions early, so that if you're right, you'll have a championship level team.

 

Analyze your league's draft history. It's amazing how many players will do the same thing every year. There's a guy in one of my leagues who has picked RB, RB, RB 10 years straight (not saying it's bad necessarily) and another guy who always picks a top QB in rounds 1-2. There are less obvious trends too, like who is more likely to follow position runs: that will likely require some actual statistical analysis or something. It might be worth knowing though.. I guarantee that the casual players won't ever look at this data either.

 

Do an auction draft. It's a lot rougher on casual players who just have a cheat sheet, because (among other things) the amount of money spent early will change how much you spend for players: you can't just go by an ordered list. It's also a lot of fun IMO.

[ralphster 274]

1. Does this board agree with this assessment?

2. How do some of you get an "edge" on the competition?

 

1. I do not speak for the board, but I agree that the 'casual' player today is far more informed then they used to be.

 

2. I don't think you 'get an edge' on today's players; we all can go to the same websites and get the same stats to make our own projections. You go with your gut, and you hope you're right more than you're wrong. For me its 'most likely to remain highly targeted/those whose targets will increase'.

[jgcrawfish 232]

I think the web keeps people from making absolutely horrible decisions (like the guy who lost his starting job two weeks ago) but it doesn't help with everything. Remember, these are the people who just want an answer without doing any analysis of their own.

 

Rank by your league's stats. Likely the casual player is using a generic top 20 list rather than customizing the stats to your league's settings. You can get a jump on these people by entering your league's settings on a site like this one & then ranking players based on last year's fantasy points and this year's projections. Not exactly rocket science, but it's something that the casual fan probably doesn't do.

 

Do Sleeper research. I don't post a ton here, but just reading the boards I am usually clued into 1-3 decent sleepers that aren't on generic top 20 lists at espn.com or such sites. I wouldn't recommend just blinding taking any suggestions: rather use it as a starting point for your own research.

 

Take risk based on your research. Casual players will often follow a pretty simple formula every time & aren't as likely to take risks that could have big payoffs. If you are supremely confident that say ... Ronnie Hillman is the next big thing (not saying I do), then take a risk based on it. Don't draft RB round 1, 2 & 3 only to pick him up later as a sleeper. Count on him as one of your starting RBs and get value at other positions early, so that if you're right, you'll have a championship level team.

 

Analyze your league's draft history. It's amazing how many players will do the same thing every year. There's a guy in one of my leagues who has picked RB, RB, RB 10 years straight (not saying it's bad necessarily) and another guy who always picks a top QB in rounds 1-2. There are less obvious trends too, like who is more likely to follow position runs: that will likely require some actual statistical analysis or something. It might be worth knowing though.. I guarantee that the casual players won't ever look at this data either.

 

Do an auction draft. It's a lot rougher on casual players who just have a cheat sheet, because (among other things) the amount of money spent early will change how much you spend for players: you can't just go by an ordered list. It's also a lot of fun IMO.

 

All this is excellent advice. I go into every draft making sure I'm the most prepared guy in the league. I can usually name the 3rd RB and 4th WR off the top of my head for every team. I know who got hot at the end of last year, which NFL team had coaching changes, the possible repercussions of those changes and maybe most importantly, I work the WW like a sumb!tch. I started Kahlil Bell (RB - CHI) in the championship game last after having him stashed on my roster a couple of week prior. I probably made more waiver moves in the playoff weeks than any other weeks because I was trying to do all I could to ensure the best chance for my team. You can outwork the people in your league, any fool can show up with someone else rankings.

[polecatt 478]

Cheat sheets, aside nothing, beats good ole timey football expertise. Cheetsheats are no more than any so called " expert's opinion." They don't really know anything of much substance. Know what cheatsheets are saying inside and out and it makes people like that very predictable. It can lead to a dull draft for them. Just watch back and laugh when the cheatsheet tells them to pick Jamaal Charles off a blown knee over Tom Brady.

[polecatt 478]

I get ahead of most everyone in the league because I waste way too much time studying this. If I put as much time into fantasy football as I did school I'd be a Dr. I get information from any source I can and use it for what it's worth. I use the Web, magazines, friends,TV. etc. Mainly I use a lot of the sources I use to get a good idea of how other in my drafts will draft. Gives me a head up and helps prepare for my picks.

[Fantasy Noob 10]

Like Polecatt said, I guess the best way to quantify the skill level currently might be by how much time the players put into it. Again though I equate it with Poker its a game of skill with a large amount of inherent luck built into the game which is what makes it so fun. You can put in hours and hours of work and still get unlucky with injuries.

 

In my opinion the more varied your information that you can get the better your chances. Of course this still requires you to analyze and process the data properly which is no easy feat.

 

Never mind that we are all fans and our allegiances and biases taint the data as well. My heart says Marshawyn Lynch is a god, my mind says he just got paid and had a ton of touches and is in for a down year. At the end of the day it maybe fun to have players I like to cheer for on my roster but thats just not good fantasy football strategy.

[BunnysBastatrds 2,440]

I've been playing for fifteen plus years and have come to a conclusion: This game is 90% luck and 10% skill. You can study for weeks up until your draft and the draft never goes the way you expect. When you start the season you expect certain players to perform and they don't. The injury bug can and does kill many good teams. You bench them and you lose. If you play head to head, the guy with the worst team goes of and beats you by forty. If you play PFTY, you lose by one because Westbrook took a knee instead of scoring a TD. The WW toward the middle of the season is a crap shoot depending on where you are on the WW pecking order. The only advantage I see with experienced players is trades. And their is a lot of luck involved with that.

 

 

There's a reason why everybody at your draft says "Good luck" before it begins.

[BufordT 434]

Excellent replies, the biggest "edge" I get at this point is customizing my projections to the league scoring systems. Been doing that for a few years now and even though the top 10-20 at each position look similar, I can see some significant differences within each scoring system after "tiering" each position.

 

JGC came up with analyzing how the competition drafts. I'll take a gander at that one since I have about 2 or 3 years of draft board pictures saved on my "droid" and haven't really tried that one. I know there's a couple of guys in each league that go RB-RB no matter what but maybe some other pattern will show.

[zmanzzzz 1]

I been playing same 3 leagues for the past 10-11 years (at least 1 league for about 17-18 yrs) and last year was the first year I didn't make the playoffs in at least one league (not many around here would admit that)....heck, I can't remember not making the playoffs in at least 2 leagues but for the reasons stated above, I may need a fresh approach. Thanks for any help.

 

it sounds like you are looking for an excuse.

[Quickolas1 80]

funny

I usually see the same people making the playoffs and the same people not.

 

they take jason witten in round 5 every year. I take jimmy graham in round 8.

(obviously a recent example)

 

auction is better to separate the "skill."

[RLLD 4,230]

You win your league in rounds 4 and beyond, more pointedly in rounds 4 - 6.

 

It's the decisions you make on players in that area that will win your league for you. Rounds 1 -3 are more or less scripted, and the players taken are reliably standard.

 

Your ability to sit down and not merely read the regurgitated praise of some sports-head, but instead apply your own direct observations and assessments, even if they run afoul of the status quo, is what will ultimately distinguish you.

 

Winning requires stepping away from the emotional aspect of being a fan and making an honest assessment based on fact and performance. It requires some time, and if you can find the time to apply to it, you can be rewarded.

 

Always avoid those situations where you know a player is not going to live up to the hype, but everyone around you is singing about how awesome he is, that is where people most often fall.

[posty 2,700]

It is all luck anyway... You just had bad luck last year...

[RLLD 4,230]

It is all luck anyway... You just had bad luck last year...

 

This too....

[waxg 3]

 

2. How do some of you get an "edge" on the competition?

 

 

I spent so much time in past years creating ranking lists before the draft, and now I spend very little time because I realized that I was leaving players on the list that I hate and drafting them in the heat of battle. Every year I would be faced with guys who dropped way down the draft board from previous years, like older guys past their prime or decent players on terrible teams who never score. Because they were still on my list (although ranked low) I would waste late picks on them because at a certain point they seemed like better options than the unknowns. So I would never end up with late round sleeper picks that can make or break a draft. Now, I don't even have a master ranked list. Instead I have a list of players to stay away from no matter what (this is key), a list of teams to stay away from no matter what (a good player on a team that is never on offense is a dud) and a short list of players that I want almost at any cost. Also switching to an auction league makes this work a whole lot better.