Projections - AFC & NFC East

[Mike FF Today 608]

Over the next 4 weeks, we'll post Doug's unique take on player projections along with some excellent matchup analysis for each team. We begin with the AFC & NFC East.

[Matt Mueller 146]

I like the Llyod projection.

[BufordT 371]

Paragraph 7 may need some editing. A red matchup means they should not be used.

 

Great read and thanks for the info.

[Criper 24]

Good read. Nothing too surprising that I would disagree with. The amount of receiving yards project for CJ Spiller is interesting to me, as I really struggled with how to project the touches in the Bills backfield. The Charles Clay projection is interesting too. I like the Gronk projection, as it's in line with my own Gronk projection, but I like Hernandez for a little more yardage with more attention being given to Gronk this year. Call me crazy, but my own personal projection on Lloyd...77/1309/10, and I have Welker falling just shy of 1000 yds this year, as I think the Pats prepare to move on and start to phase him out as the season unwinds.

[kmbryant09 1]

Good read. Nothing too surprising that I would disagree with. The amount of receiving yards project for CJ Spiller is interesting to me, as I really struggled with how to project the touches in the Bills backfield. The Charles Clay projection is interesting too. I like the Gronk projection, as it's in line with my own Gronk projection, but I like Hernandez for a little more yardage with more attention being given to Gronk this year. Call me crazy, but my own personal projection on Lloyd...77/1309/10, and I have Welker falling just shy of 1000 yds this year, as I think the Pats prepare to move on and start to phase him out as the season unwinds.

I definitely agree, in theory. But I just don't think its practical. Welker has been arguably the most productive Wide Receiver over the past 5 seasons. Not counting his ACL - recovery season, he's averaged 117 catches/1,314 yards/6 Touchdowns. You can't just phase that out.

 

Unfortunately for the Patriots, it's not Robert Kraft throwing the ball to Wes Welker. It's Tom Brady. Brady and Welker have a connection that most QB/WR combos can only dream of (specifically Jeff Garthia ), and Welker helps Brady as much as Brady helps Welker. That doesn't mean Welker makes Brady by any stretch of the imagination, but Welker is nearly uncoverable in the slot. The timing/chemistry that he has with Brady combined with Welker's quickness and route running makes it a nightmare for opposing defenses.

 

Do you really think Tom Brady is going to start ignoring Wes Welker just because it helps the organization in contract negotiations? Is Bill Belichick going to pull Welker off the field in favor of Julian Edelman in hopes that the team doesn't need Welker? I just don't see it.

 

Assuming Welker plays 16 games, I think he's a lock for 100/1,1000/5 - with some decent upside.

[Criper 24]

 

Assuming Welker plays 16 games, I think he's a lock for 100/1,1000/5 - with some decent upside.

And there lies part of my thinking in my projection for Welker (which happens to be 91/995/6). I don't think he plays all 16 this year, and because of this, I see an increase in targets for some other guys, particularly Lloyd.

 

One of the reason I started doing my own projections many years ago, is because my research showed the vast majority of people did not take the time to match up their projections, ie they would project the QB with 4000 yards and 30 TD passes, yet they projected the team's RB's, TE's, and WR's with 40 TD's and 5000 receiving yards combined, total loss of credibilty in my book. In addition, one of things I do with my projections, that I don't think most do, is I look at 3 years of trends. For example, in 2011 there were 17 WR's that went over 1000 yards, in 2010, there were 16, and in 2009, there were 20. Yet, most of the draftnics will project 25-30 WR's to finish with a 1000 yards, when historically, recent trends show there are only 16-20 WR's that will finish wirh 1000 or more yards. When I do my projections, it's up to me through my research and analysis, to determine which 16-20 I think it will be and why (injury, O coordinator change or change in team philosophy, defense got worse, so team will play from behind more, etc).

 

When I do my projections, I look at these trends for each position and make my projections accordingly because I try and project the trends as well as the actual yards, tds, etc. So if I think in 2012, there will be 18 WR's that go over 1000 yards since that is what recent trends tell me, then I have to also determine which WR's will not go over 1000 and why. I actually project the number of WR's for each yardage plateau 1500+ yards, 1400-1499, 1300-1399, 1200-1299, etc, and I do this for each yardage plateu all the way down to 100-199, and for each position too, all based on 3 years of data. For example, for the last 3 years, there have been 3 RB's per year with 1300-1399 yards. That's a trend to me, but no RB has finished with 1500-1599 during the last 3 years, BUT 1 RB in each of the last 3 years has finished with 1600+ yards. Don't know what all this means, but I do know when I did my projections, I only projected 1 RB to go over 1500 rush yards, and I projected 2 RB's to finish in that 1300-1399 range because I think the trend will go down this year due to all the passing. I also project the TD's based on plateus for each position too, based on historical trend data.

 

I know this is a long-winded answer for why I don't project Welker for over 100 catches and 1000 yards and he could just as easily continue his own trend of doing what he does,, but in my mind, due to his age(I don't think he plays 16), contract situation, Lloyd acquisition, etc, that are some compelling factors for why Welker is a prime candidate(in my mind) to fall out of the reception/yardage plateu that most will project him to stay in. BTW, I project Brady as the top QB (5378/42:9), but I see the biggest beneficiaries as Gronk(79/1090/12), Lloyd(77/1309/10) and Hernandez(80/962/8).

[Raider 84 29]

Very nice article

[The Football Guru 212]

Good read. Nothing too surprising that I would disagree with. The amount of receiving yards project for CJ Spiller is interesting to me, as I really struggled with how to project the touches in the Bills backfield. The Charles Clay projection is interesting too. I like the Gronk projection, as it's in line with my own Gronk projection, but I like Hernandez for a little more yardage with more attention being given to Gronk this year. Call me crazy, but my own personal projection on Lloyd...77/1309/10, and I have Welker falling just shy of 1000 yds this year, as I think the Pats prepare to move on and start to phase him out as the season unwinds.

As you hinted, the Bills' backfield is a difficult one to forecast. For now, I've chosen to believe the improvements on defense will lead to more rushing attempts and short, high-percentage passes such as swings and screens to Spiller. With that said, I have to believe my projection for Spiller is his absolute ceiling if both backs make it through the season healthy.

 

If I'm sure of anything with the Pats, it is that Lloyd will be money. Our projections for him aren't too far apart (except on the yards) when you consider my projection is based on 15 games. I have Lloyd at 14.9 YPC while you have him at 17, which wouldn't be too far off his career high of 18.8 in 2010. I should note, however, that I believe my projection of Lloyd is his absolute floor for this fantasy season. I would have no problem believing you if you told me he will post 75 catches and go for 16-18 YPC, my only concern is that Brady will probably do his best to spread the wealth. My current projection for the New England passing game (if you add up all the reception totals) is 434, which would put him almost on pace to beat Drew Brees' NFL record of 468 completions last season. That scares me a bit since I think the Pats will try to run the ball a bit more this year.

 

With that said, if anyone's catch totals take a hit from last season, I would say it will be Welker and then Gronk. I say Welker simply because he will not need to serve as the only short/intermediate/deep at the position this season. I say Gronk because I really think New England will try to reduce his load a bit so that he is good and fresh when the Pats enter the red zone.

[hlgaa26 0]

As you hinted, the Bills' backfield is a difficult one to forecast. For now, I've chosen to believe the improvements on defense will lead to more rushing attempts and short, high-percentage passes such as swings and screens to Spiller. With that said, I have to believe my projection for Spiller is his absolute ceiling if both backs make it through the season healthy.

 

If I'm sure of anything with the Pats, it is that Lloyd will be money. Our projections for him aren't too far apart (except on the yards) when you consider my projection is based on 15 games. I have Lloyd at 14.9 YPC while you have him at 17, which wouldn't be too far off his career high of 18.8 in 2010. I should note, however, that I believe my projection of Lloyd is his absolute floor for this fantasy season. I would have no problem believing you if you told me he will post 75 catches and go for 16-18 YPC, my only concern is that Brady will probably do his best to spread the wealth. My current projection for the New England passing game (if you add up all the reception totals) is 434, which would put him almost on pace to beat Drew Brees' NFL record of 468 completions last season. That scares me a bit since I think the Pats will try to run the ball a bit more this year.

 

With that said, if anyone's catch totals take a hit from last season, I would say it will be Welker and then Gronk. I say Welker simply because he will not need to serve as the only short/intermediate/deep at the position this season. I say Gronk because I really think New England will try to reduce his load a bit so that he is good and fresh when the Pats enter the red zone.

 

A couple of notes here, as a diehard bills fan, im having trouble trying to figure out what the breakdown in the backfield is going to be too. If theres one thing I can confidently say is Fred will have at least 50% of the carries assuming both are healthy. People are forgetting that he was absolutely a top 5 MVP candidate through the first half of the season last year. He was playing sooooo well and was the heart and soul of the team, symbolizing the rags to riches story. Players respect him and the coaches recognize his versatility. In one of his biggest plays last year, he was lined up as a receiver against the Pats at the end of the game and had a great run after the catch to get us inside the 5 yard line. And just youtube his run against the Giants if you wanna question his burst or long distance speed and watch the move he pulls on Ross at the end of that play to shake him. Genius, yet how often do you see RBs just get dragged down right before the endzone since they ran out of steam. Fred has a great head on his shoulders with a high football IQ. And lets not overplay the negatives either. Yea he missed the end of last year but it was due to a broken bone. Bones heal and dont linger, if it was a ligament or hamstring it would be a totally different story. If you dont think about twice about drafting Demarco Murray because of his injury last year, then same should apply to Fred. And the over 30 argument is fair but take into account that not all of his miles have been from running between the tackles in the NFL. He spent time in NFL Europe and does not have a comparable history or compilation of touches that a guy like Maurice Jones-Drew has. Yea Fred is over 30 but more importantly look at the quality and quantity of hits he has taken in his career. And plus, the Bills gave him a new contract this offseason, they plan on using him and getting him the ball and are two years out from fully fazing him out.

 

And you ultimately think Lloyd ends up as a top 5 WR then? More than worthy of a 5th round pick...

[The Football Guru 212]

Regarding Lloyd...while I would not recommend him as a top-five receiver (and won't project him that way), it wouldn't surprise me in the least if he was. People can say he's not the main man in NE like he was in Denver and St. Louis, but he also won't be the focus of the defensive gameplan, knows the system better than any normal newcomer and has the best QB he's ever played with by far.

 

Back to the Bills...one reason I have Spiller projected with so many catches is b/c once the season starts and Jackson gets rolling again, all this talk about "not making either RB happy" will go right out the window if Jackon is averaging 5.0+ YPC again and running with the same passion he was last year. If that happens, Gailey knows he can go back to using Spiller as a satelite back and part-time slot receiver. I'd venture to guess that if anyone's numbers get hurt if this all plays out, it will be David Nelson's.

[The Football Guru 212]

On a slightly different note, I'm finishing my projections for the NFC South tonight. What is up with the RB situations in that division? What a mess!

 

Turner-Rodgers-Snelling

Williams-Stewart-Tolbert

Ingram-Thomas-Sproles

 

And don't sleep on the fourth potential three-headed monster in this division:

 

Martin-Blount-Michael Smith

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

On a slightly different note, I'm finishing my projections for the NFC South tonight. What is up with the RB situations in that division? What a mess!

 

Turner-Rodgers-Snelling

Williams-Stewart-Tolbert

Ingram-Thomas-Sproles

 

And don't sleep on the fourth potential three-headed monster in this division:

 

Martin-Blount-Michael Smith

The RBBC is bad enough when the fantasy world tries to decide which RBs past the first few bell cows will be able to produce. Teams using a 3 RBBC approach is just impossible to predict and very frustrating.

[Criper 24]

On a slightly different note, I'm finishing my projections for the NFC South tonight. What is up with the RB situations in that division? What a mess!

 

Turner-Rodgers-Snelling

Williams-Stewart-Tolbert

Ingram-Thomas-Sproles

 

And don't sleep on the fourth potential three-headed monster in this division:

 

Martin-Blount-Michael Smith

Very tough division to project the RB's, for sure. Again, I do a lot of my projections based on trends and end of season yardage and touchdown tiers as compared to previous recent seasons. For example, I am projecting the 2012 Saints RB's to have a down year rushing the ball as compared to last year. If you look at the Saints rushing yardage over the past 4 seasons, it looks like this: 2008-1594, 2009-2106, 2010-1519, 2011-2127. My current team rushing projection for the Saints this year is 1634. Not that this is scientific by any means, but with the bounty scandal and Payton being suspended, my opinion is the Saints have had enough offseason distractions to affect their play on the field this season. BTW, I also project Brees to miss multiple games this year, further piling on to the Saints woes. Subsequently, I currently have Brees ranked as the 12th QB on my own rankings. I know! Crazy, huh? But, from my perspective all it means is that Brees is not someone I will be drafting this year, at least not at his current ADP, though I would certainly draft him if he were to fall for whatever reason, though not likely to happen in too many drafts.

 

Anyway, since you are showing us yours, I'll show mine. Will be interesting to see your take, as right now, it's a guess as to how Tolbert will be used in Carolina, and I don't see Michael Smith making a siginificant contribution without an injury to Martin or Blount in front of him unless Martin is used less on 3rd downs than I am projecting.

 

Turner 245/1002/9 11/79/0

Snelling 62/242/2 34/273/1

Rodgers 77/331/1 42/291/1

 

Williams 168/813/4 13/82/0

Stewart 156/724/5 36/284/1

Tolbert 41/168/2 29/215/1

 

Ingram 157/633/5 13/79/0

Thomas 122/515/3 45/344/2

Sproles 79/397/2 70/596/3

 

Martin 198/855/3 58/438/2

Blount 142/599/5 8/58/0

Smith 35/134/0 10/68/0

[The Football Guru 212]

Very tough division to project the RB's, for sure. Again, I do a lot of my projections based on trends and end of season yardage and touchdown tiers as compared to previous recent seasons. For example, I am projecting the 2012 Saints RB's to have a down year rushing the ball as compared to last year. If you look at the Saints rushing yardage over the past 4 seasons, it looks like this: 2008-1594, 2009-2106, 2010-1519, 2011-2127. My current team rushing projection for the Saints this year is 1634. Not that this is scientific by any means, but with the bounty scandal and Payton being suspended, my opinion is the Saints have had enough offseason distractions to affect their play on the field this season. BTW, I also project Brees to miss multiple games this year, further piling on to the Saints woes. Subsequently, I currently have Brees ranked as the 12th QB on my own rankings. I know! Crazy, huh? But, from my perspective all it means is that Brees is not someone I will be drafting this year, at least not at his current ADP, though I would certainly draft him if he were to fall for whatever reason, though not likely to happen in too many drafts.

 

Anyway, since you are showing us yours, I'll show mine. Will be interesting to see your take, as right now, it's a guess as to how Tolbert will be used in Carolina, and I don't see Michael Smith making a siginificant contribution without an injury to Martin or Blount in front of him unless Martin is used less on 3rd downs than I am projecting.

 

Turner 245/1002/9 11/79/0

Snelling 62/242/2 34/273/1

Rodgers 77/331/1 42/291/1

 

Williams 168/813/4 13/82/0

Stewart 156/724/5 36/284/1

Tolbert 41/168/2 29/215/1

 

Ingram 157/633/5 13/79/0

Thomas 122/515/3 45/344/2

Sproles 79/397/2 70/596/3

 

Martin 198/855/3 58/438/2

Blount 142/599/5 8/58/0

Smith 35/134/0 10/68/0

 

Very similar, for the most part. I'm higher on Martin and Smith than you are (I have Smith a bit more involved in the passing game), but all in all, we see things pretty close to the same right now. After researching Rutgers' run-pass ratios when Ray Rice and Brian Leonard were together, I'd be a bit surprised if Martin and Blount aren't splitting about 400-425 carries with Smith picking up the final 25-50. The Bucs' run blocking is among the best in the league and they should have enough on defense to keep them in the game most weeks.

 

Regarding Tolbert, I think he steals some of Cam's short TDs and nearly half of J-Stew's receptions. Do you realize with Cam's help last year, Carolina rushed for 2,400+ yards?

 

I'd like to hear the rationale on Brees missing games...LOL As for the Saints' running game, I expect a big dropoff in rushing yards too. It sure seemed like to me that OC Pete Carmichael was even more pass-happy than Sean Payton was during his 10-game stint as the play caller. I also don't see that defense getting much better (Spags will help a bit though), meaning Brees may be forced to throw every bit as much this year.

[Criper 24]

Very similar, for the most part. I'm higher on Martin and Smith than you are (I have Smith a bit more involved in the passing game), but all in all, we see things pretty close to the same right now. After researching Rutgers' run-pass ratios when Ray Rice and Brian Leonard were together, I'd be a bit surprised if Martin and Blount aren't splitting about 400-425 carries with Smith picking up the final 25-50. The Bucs' run blocking is among the best in the league and they should have enough on defense to keep them in the game most weeks.

I recently adjusted my projection for Martin down slightly, as I think Blount still gets a good share of early down work as long as he holds onto the football, and I think if Blount is productive in the first couple of games against the Panthers at home and the Giants on the road (both rush D's in lower half in 2011), then Martin may not get as many carries, at least early in the year, as most everybody believes. Curious to see your projection for Freeman this year because I have him bouncing back in a pretty good way.

 

Regarding Tolbert, I think he steals some of Cam's short TDs and nearly half of J-Stew's receptions. Do you realize with Cam's help last year, Carolina rushed for 2,400+ yards?

Actually, Carolina has run for 2400+ yards in 3 of the last 4 years(remember I base many of my projections on trends ) even without Cam, and I have them falling just short of 2400 yards this year. While I don't expect Cam to put up the rushing numbers he put up last year, I still have him at 113/602/5 on the ground, and I have the Panthers projected for almost 50 more rushing attempts this year than what they actually had last year, if the defense improves slightly and keeps them in a few more closer games. Even with the additional rushing attempts, I don't see Tolbert getting many of them outside of some short yardage and goal line situations (barring injuries), which would lend some credence to your belief that he steals some of Cam's short rushing TD's. Incidently, I don't see the team getting anywhere near 26 rushing TD's again this year, and I've projected a 10 td drop off, which is why I only have Tolbert projected for 2, but I wouldn't be shocked either if he lead the team in rushing scores too.

 

 

I'd like to hear the rationale on Brees missing games...LOL As for the Saints' running game, I expect a big dropoff in rushing yards too. It sure seemed like to me that OC Pete Carmichael was even more pass-happy than Sean Payton was during his 10-game stint as the play caller. I also don't see that defense getting much better (Spags will help a bit though), meaning Brees may be forced to throw every bit as much this year.

As far as Brees, no rationale whatsoever, call it a hunch that I don't think he makes it through 16 this year. Who else projects injuries anyway lol! I just think the Saints are one team that could really disappoint this year, and I would not be surprised if a multiple week injury to Brees is a contributing factor. Whether it's injury or Brees doing a 2011 Philip Rivers impersonation, my projection for him is an off year by his standards, even though I still have him over 4k yards, though like you, I think the D struggles this year too, forcing the Sainst to throw rather than the Saints dictating when they throw.

 

Looking forward to seeing the rest of your projections!

[madd futher mucker 36]

I finally got a chance to study Doug's projections and compare them to my own. Here are my notes:

 

Buff - We see the Bill's pretty much the same way, with ore reliance on the RBs. That said, Doug is slightly more bullish than I am. He has Spiller just about the same as I do, but F Jax at 231 ppr fpts vs my 218. The difference is that I have him at a mid RB2, while Doug's projection is a bottom end RB1. Not a great deal of difference.

 

Mia: I'm slightly higher on Bush and lower on Daniel Thomas. Time will tell who is right. One of the main things we should seek to accomplish in the projection process is to identify potential break-out players. With Doug's projection for Clay at 129 ppr fpts, he again reinforced Charles Clay as a potential break out candidate at TE.

 

NE: Doug was higher on Ridley both in yardage and TDs, and I'm inclined to move my projection up a little. Doug has very strong feelings about Lloyd, and I'll also admit that he could be right on Lloyd as well, although I see Doug's projection as Lloyd' ceiling and his projection for Hernandez as his floor.

 

NYJ: I didn't think I'd find another human being who is lower on the Jets than I am, and I just found a kindred soul here.

 

Dallas: I basically agree with everything in Doug's projections for Dallas except I'm still going out on a (dead?) limb and projecting an almost equal balance between Bryant's and Austin's numbers instead of a 41 ppr fpt difference (making Austin a top 8 WR and giving Dez the 25th spot. And this was before the distraction of his arrest for domestic violence to his mom.)

 

NYG: Major differences here (but not about Eli). I see more participation by the RBs in the total offense than does Doug. I have about 20% higher numbers at that position. What I really question is the 291 ppr fpts for Cruz would make him the #2 WR on my list. 98-1390-9 - did I read that right? I'm saying "no way, Jose".

 

Phil: Doug obviously has some pretty strong feelings about Maclin this year, which I appreciate. I'll move my projections up a little - I have Maclin at only 6 TDs and Doug has him at 10. Maybe we should split the difference? I've been thinking all along about 175 ppr fpts for Celek. Doug has him at only 158 with a stat line of 60-5-685. I gotta think that better be a floor for him. What say you Doug?

 

Wash: Our projections for the 'Skins are pretty close except we are again flip-flopped on the TEs: This time Doug is the optimist at 70-850-6 for 191 fpts vs my 64-5-800. While I see Doug's F Davis projection as his ceiling, perhaps my own represents his floor.

 

Oddly, we see pretty much eye-to-eye on the fantasy relevant QBs. You know I appreciate the work you do and I can't wait to for the next installment. Doug, I do have one question, however. Other than the potential breakout for Clay and the partial break-out you project for Maclin, who else do you see among these 8 teams that could be next year's Victor Cruz or Jordy Nelson?

[The Football Guru 212]

I finally got a chance to study Doug's projections and compare them to my own. Here are my notes:

 

Buff - We see the Bill's pretty much the same way, with ore reliance on the RBs. That said, Doug is slightly more bullish than I am. He has Spiller just about the same as I do, but F Jax at 231 ppr fpts vs my 218. The difference is that I have him at a mid RB2, while Doug's projection is a bottom end RB1. Not a great deal of difference.

 

Mia: I'm slightly higher on Bush and lower on Daniel Thomas. Time will tell who is right. One of the main things we should seek to accomplish in the projection process is to identify potential break-out players. With Doug's projection for Clay at 129 ppr fpts, he again reinforced Charles Clay as a potential break out candidate at TE.

 

NE: Doug was higher on Ridley both in yardage and TDs, and I'm inclined to move my projection up a little. Doug has very strong feelings about Lloyd, and I'll also admit that he could be right on Lloyd as well, although I see Doug's projection as Lloyd' ceiling and his projection for Hernandez as his floor.

 

NYJ: I didn't think I'd find another human being who is lower on the Jets than I am, and I just found a kindred soul here.

 

Dallas: I basically agree with everything in Doug's projections for Dallas except I'm still going out on a (dead?) limb and projecting an almost equal balance between Bryant's and Austin's numbers instead of a 41 ppr fpt difference (making Austin a top 8 WR and giving Dez the 25th spot. And this was before the distraction of his arrest for domestic violence to his mom.)

 

NYG: Major differences here (but not about Eli). I see more participation by the RBs in the total offense than does Doug. I have about 20% higher numbers at that position. What I really question is the 291 ppr fpts for Cruz would make him the #2 WR on my list. 98-1390-9 - did I read that right? I'm saying "no way, Jose".

 

Phil: Doug obviously has some pretty strong feelings about Maclin this year, which I appreciate. I'll move my projections up a little - I have Maclin at only 6 TDs and Doug has him at 10. Maybe we should split the difference? I've been thinking all along about 175 ppr fpts for Celek. Doug has him at only 158 with a stat line of 60-5-685. I gotta think that better be a floor for him. What say you Doug?

 

Wash: Our projections for the 'Skins are pretty close except we are again flip-flopped on the TEs: This time Doug is the optimist at 70-850-6 for 191 fpts vs my 64-5-800. While I see Doug's F Davis projection as his ceiling, perhaps my own represents his floor.

 

Oddly, we see pretty much eye-to-eye on the fantasy relevant QBs. You know I appreciate the work you do and I can't wait to for the next installment. Doug, I do have one question, however. Other than the potential breakout for Clay and the partial break-out you project for Maclin, who else do you see among these 8 teams that could be next year's Victor Cruz or Jordy Nelson?

I was wondering if I was going to hear from you on this

 

Looks like the point I need to start with my rebuttal is at Cruz. I have been in a mad rush to get these projections done ahead of my FFPC draft on Friday and haven't QC'ed every single player like I want to yet. I've already lowered Cruz's TD total to seven since he probably isn't going to break as many big-play scores as he did lastyear, but in Steve Smith's old role in the Giants' offense, I think his catch numbers will be quite high. Chances are I may come down a bit on his reception total, but probably not by more than five.

 

Regarding Celek...a more focused DeSean Jackson probably means less work for him. Does he stay in to block more with Peters out for the year? Remember 15-game projections here, but I'm probably at Celek's role stays the same as last year. (Obviously, I don't expect that to be the case.)

 

As far as a Cruz/Nelson pick, I'll give you a few I think have a shot: Roberto Wallace (MIA), Shane Vereen, Jeremy Kerley and Terrance Ganaway. Most of us know about Vereen, but Wallace is a big and wonderful athlete that I have been impressed with during preseason action. I remember referencing Kerley in one of my recent articles, saying he caught a pass one out of every 8.3 pass plays last season, second behind only Dustin Keller. Then again, if Chaz Schilens could ever stay healthy, he might be my pick over Kerley. I was very impressed with what little I saw from Ganaway at Baylor, although I wish he ran tougher than he does for a man of his size. Still, he inspires more confidence in me than Shonn Greene does. Joe McKnight can't seem to get anyone to love him on that staff, so maybe Ganaway becomes a bit of a Mike Tolbert clone in the sense that he is a big back that may see a lot of third-down work.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Doug, I think I mentioned this to you in another thread, but I still feel that Hernandez could have 150-200 rushing added to his bottom line.

 

'Aaron Hernandez stayed after practice Thursday to work on taking handoffs from Tom Brady.

The Patriots are doing everything they can to get Hernandez as many touches as possible. Over the final six games of last season (including playoffs), he rushed 13 times for an impressive 115 yards. Still just 22 years old, we've only scratched the surface of Hernandez's skill set.'

[The Football Guru 212]

I hear ya...I really try not to let things that happened in the playoffs affect my projections, but it is entirely possible they do use him sparingly as a runner. I'm also thinking a healthy Shane Vereen makes it less likely the Pats will run him.

 

If it makes you feel any better, however, I may have accounted for the extra yardage in my newest projection (77-920-8), which is a substantial increase from my first one (67-770-8). I now have Hernandez one point/game lower than Gronk in PPR.

[Matt Mueller 146]

I hear ya...I really try not to let things that happened in the playoffs affect my projections, but it is entirely possible they do use him sparingly as a runner. I'm also thinking a healthy Shane Vereen makes it less likely the Pats will run him.

 

If it makes you feel any better, however, I may have accounted for the extra yardage in my newest projection (77-920-8), which is a substantial increase from my first one (67-770-8). I now have Hernandez one point/game lower than Gronk in PPR.

 

Word. I more think it's useful to people who play in leagues that award extra bonuses for say wr/te's that rush anyway. Guys like Hernandez and Percy might be that much more valuable.

 

Either way just wanted to mention it and thanks again for all the work on the projections.

 

I think we can all agree that we like Hernandez.

[The Football Guru 212]

Word. I more think it's useful to people who play in leagues that award extra bonuses for say wr/te's that rush anyway. Guys like Hernandez and Percy might be that much more valuable.

 

Either way just wanted to mention it and thanks again for all the work on the projections.

 

I think we can all agree that we like Hernandez.

Let me ask you something: how fluky do you think those rushing attempts were for Hernandez last season? Did Bill O'Brien realize he just needed to get the ball into his hands in any way possible or was it a "cover" for a void the coaching staff saw in the running game? And do you think Josh McDaniels will feel the same way?

 

Either way, I'm psyched about being able to pair Graham (1.12) with Hernandez (6.1) in my experts' dynasty league for the foreseeable future. I have a feeling I'm going to be a popular guy when an owner realizes Dustin Keller or Owen Daniels isn't cutting it for his team.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Let me ask you something: how fluky do you think those rushing attempts were for Hernandez last season? Did Bill O'Brien realize he just needed to get the ball into his hands in any way possible or was it a "cover" for a void the coaching staff saw in the running game? And do you think Josh McDaniels will feel the same way?

 

Either way, I'm psyched about being able to pair Graham (1.12) with Hernandez (6.1) in my experts' dynasty league for the foreseeable future. I have a feeling I'm going to be a popular guy when an owner realizes Dustin Keller or Owen Daniels isn't cutting it for his team.

 

That's a great question...and I don't have the answer. I think it was probably more fluky than something they are expected to repeat upon, however the camp reports indicate it is at least something they are still working on.

 

In, leagues that award extra yardage, 15 rushing yards a week-even on a lateral screen or something-for a player with great after the catch moves might be a nice bonus-in those yardage leagues. Doesn't really matter otherwise

 

 

Regarding Keller and O. Daniels -hey! don't make fun of my Zealots dynasty TE's OK?!

[ralphster 274]

Let me ask you something: how fluky do you think those rushing attempts were for Hernandez last season?

 

I think it was a bit of both actually; Hernandez being an exceptional athlete meant them looking for more ways to get him the ball, while at the same time him running the ball added an element of surprise that BB could exploit matchups with. I expect his rushing attempts to continue under McD as a way to keep defenses honest and punish over pursuing DEs when its there. Pretty sure BB expects everyone knows his 2 monster TEs are coming, which is why I think the Pats will seek to diversify the playbook this year.

[The Football Guru 212]

That's a great question...and I don't have the answer. I think it was probably more fluky than something they are expected to repeat upon, however the camp reports indicate it is at least something they are still working on.

 

In, leagues that award extra yardage, 15 rushing yards a week-even on a lateral screen or something-for a player with great after the catch moves might be a nice bonus-in those yardage leagues. Doesn't really matter otherwise

 

 

Regarding Keller and O. Daniels -hey! don't make fun of my Zealots dynasty TE's OK?!

Too soon to make fun of your TEs? My bad