The 2013 Dynasty Q & A thread

[Stewburtx8 67]

 

It could be instructive to go back and look at an example of what can happen if everything falls the right way with a strategy that has at least a significant portion of the focus on the future value as opposed to win now in a dyansty league. I am in no way trying to call you out on comments you have made in the past. All feedback is very much appreciated by myself and I'm sure everybody in this forum because its highest and best use is for us all to see different anlges and perspectives to enhance and broaden our own point of view. I get as much or more wrong as anybody on these pages so please don't take this as a I am smarter than you post though I know some readers will no matter how I parse my words.

 

Last year I drafted a team for a similar startup league called the Zealots and switched my tactics by the 7th round because a future value opportunity was presenting itself IMO. I don't know if you remember the team but it was fairly clear to all including myself, that the tactic cost me almost any chance of competing year 1.

 

Here are your comments regarding the team after viewing the draft and rosters:

 

"Really good post (or series of posts) lesjroza. Good insight in to your draft. I'll give you some of my thoughts because it's fun to talk about this stuff...especially when my drafts are still over a month away. I'm not currently in a dynasty league, but certainly love to discuss fantasy sports in all forms.

 

As for your draft strategy, I think the thing that hurt you the most in my opinion was giving up 1.03 and 5.04 for the 1.01 and 7.01. I think that is a steep price to pay just to move from the #3 to #1 spot, especially when the guy I would of seriously considered at #1 overall was available at #3 (Ray Rice). At the very least, I think Rice and Foster (and McCoy) are close enough that I wouldn't want to give up that 20+ pick difference from the 5.04 to 7.01. I think the 5th round is loaded with solid WR's or TE's and you missed out on acquiring a really solid player to plug in to your starting lineup this season.

 

As for the picks you did make, I like what you did with your first 5 picks. Peterson could be a steal where you took him assuming he returns to his old self. I am not a big Dez Bryant fan (and probably would of took a few WR's over him), but he obviously has a high ceiling if he ever realizes his potential. I really like Mike Wallace where you got him. He's young and another explosive player. Eli Manning is one of my favorite mid range QB's.

 

Now from the 7th round on is where I think you hurt your team for THIS year at least and why I wouldn't rank it as one of my favorite teams. You went VERY youth heavy and gave up your draft for next year to get Andrew Luck. If Andrew Luck is the stud QB you expect him to be though, this could pay off. I have no problem with where you took him, but you did pay a steep price to get there, especially if you end up with a high pick next year. Tate is probably a necessity for Arian Foster owners, so I understand that pick. After that you went David Wilson, Ronnie Hillman, Randall Cobb, Kendall Wright with your next 4 picks. A lot of talent/future value here, but I don't expect any of them to make a big impact this season. Wright and Hillman may be decent, and Wilson could jump in value if Bradshaw gets hurt. You also missed the boat on the value of TE's in this league by not taking one until the 13th round (Heath Miller).

 

Overall, you have A LOT of future value here. As I said earlier, I'm more of a "win now" guy, especially in a league with only 3 year contracts. But with the right growth from your young guys, and some savvy trades, I think your team has a lot of long term potential. I'd just be surprised if this was a top contending team this year, because the depth just isn't there after the first 5 picks in my opinion."

 

It was a very good assesment of my roster within the context of what was known at the time.

 

Here is the post-script. That roster ended up tied for the best record and scored the most points in the league in year 1 so was the top seeded team in the playoffs. The team did lose the championship to another team which yourself, I, and others had pegged as an outstanding "win now" roster but my team could just as easily have won in any given week and the team is now really well positioned going forward due to the tactic. Here is the current roster.

 

Luck Freeman

 

AP D. Murray Ballard Tate Pierce

 

Dez Andre Johnson Cobb D. Amendola D. Moore K. Wright

 

Gronkowski Gresham H. Miller L. Green

 

When a future value focus works, it can work big, and provide a sustained competitive advantage for many years

 

I do agree with you regarding this years rookie class incidentally, and have traded away all of my 1st round picks in all of my leagues save one, but the above is an example of how things can change drastically when looking in retrospect. Along with the above roster I have only a 4th round pick in this years draft, but have 4 1st round picks and 4 2nd round picks in 2014 so the current roster value is even greater than the names owned would have it appear..

 

 

Thank you for posting this. I have no issue with looking back at comments I've made in the past. It's actually kind of interesting. Like everyone, I'm going to be wrong a lot, especially when I put my opinions out on these boards fairly often. I've been very consistent with my thoughts on how I'd attack a dynasty startup draft. I'd play to win now and feel I will always be able to trade, make waiver pickups, use draft picks, and/or rebuild if necessary. I wouldn't waiver TOO MUCH from how I'd attack a standard redraft league (especially with 3 year contracts). I've been very sucessful in a long running baseball dynasty league using this strategy. But that doesn't mean I dismiss youth. Youth will always break ties or "close" calls amongst players I value fairly closely. I've also never dismissed the fact that other dynasty strategies can be very successful (or more successful). I even prefaced my comments to CStriker to make it clear that my comments are coming from a completely different side of the aisle from the approach he took.

 

It appears your draft turned out very well for you. It also looks like you made several in season moves to bulk up your roster (including trading the #1 overall pick). You hit big on Peterson considering where you got him, which gave you more freedom to trade Foster. My issue with Dez Bryant was never about talent, it's always been about his mental makeup/attitude and the fact that minor injuries always seemed to "derail" him. I still wouldn't say I "trust" Dez Bryant. I'm not sure when I made these comments last year but I ended up drafting Randall Cobb on 2 of my 3 redraft teams. I'm guessing maybe Me_200x talked me in to him during IBL discussions, because I ended up targetting him as well. But if Jennings and/or Nelson aren't banged up, does Cobb have a huge breakthrough season? Maybe...maybe not. Either way, it appears you have the makings of a long term contender (assuming you continue to make savvy trades considering the 3 year contract rule). Good luck going forward. One of these days, maybe I'll jump in to one of these FFToday startup dynasty leagues. I've just started devoting a lot more of my time to DAILY fantasy football leagues, which I tend to now find more enjoyable than the season long format.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Will not touch holmes with a ten foot pole. Guy is an average talent and a diva , that never had his quarterback's confidence, no matter where he played.

 

My money is on kerley.

 

I'm a Jets fan and Holmes is a malcontent. But never had his quarterback's confidence? He's a got a super bowl winning TD catch that begs to differ.

[Kopy 491]

 

I'm a Jets fan and Holmes is a malcontent. But never had his quarterback's confidence? He's a got a super bowl winning TD catch that begs to differ.

I'm not too sure on his contract status, or how much he makes. Being a jets fan, you might be the guy to ask this question.

Is he gonna have to produce this year in order to get another deal, not get cut next year, or asked to restructure?

If he does have a reason to play hard, like you said. He might still hold value this season, but if he's got nothing to play for other than a possibly really crappy jet team. Then he might pose a problem, or not produce.

 

The reasoning behind my interest is because I have to make 1 more cut to make my requirements for the rookie draft. Right now it's looking like he might be the odd man out. But I'd hate to let him go if he's got another productive year left in him.

[Cstriker 2]

 

I'm a Jets fan and Holmes is a malcontent. But never had his quarterback's confidence? He's a got a super bowl winning TD catch that begs to differ.

 

You heard from the horse's mouth on jets hardknocks that they would'nt target him even when he was open in Pittsburgh. He cashed out enough on that one catch. Time to see him for what he is. An average player that has a low ceiling, and not someone that the OC would game plan around.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

 

You heard from the horse's mouth on jets hardknocks that they would'nt target him even when he was open in Pittsburgh. He cashed out enough on that one catch. Time to see him for what he is. An average player that has a low ceiling, and not someone that the OC would game plan around.

 

have to disagree somewhat. Holmes is a very good route runner with pretty good hands. above average NFL WR.

 

the thing is, he's a malcontent and a trouble maker. what else would you expect him to say on hard knocks right after he joined the Jets? he always wants the ball more even when getting it plenty. And he is not a #1 WR. hes a very good #2.

[Mustard Lover 3]

I need some help with resolving a keeper issue in a Dynasty-ish league that I'm running.

 

All teams need to keep a starting lineup(1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1FLEX, 1DE, 1LB & 1DB) one owner had Dummerville at DE all last season and when he made his drops he didn't realize that he'd been switched to LB. This left him with 2 LB and no DE.

 

I can change the player to DE/LB but I worry about setting the precedent of changing player positions whenever this happens. What say you?

 

Thank you in advance.

[rholio 339]

I need some help with resolving a keeper issue in a Dynasty-ish league that I'm running.

 

All teams need to keep a starting lineup(1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1FLEX, 1DE, 1LB & 1DB) one owner had Dummerville at DE all last season and when he made his drops he didn't realize that he'd been switched to LB. This left him with 2 LB and no DE.

 

I can change the player to DE/LB but I worry about setting the precedent of changing player positions whenever this happens. What say you?

 

Thank you in advance.

 

Fair thing to do is look over who he did drop and have him keep a DE instead of both LBs. Take one off the roster and add the DE that was on his team before the cuts. Let the player make the choices though, it's his team.

[coryjagfan28 0]

so, Im in a tough spot.

 

I need a RB. and at 1.2, I was hoping for Bell. He was the only one I could take with no regrets. But now, I have an offer for the 1.2. All told it comes down to this

 

Goodson

Ivory

Hilton

Cecil Shorts

Rivers

2.02

2.11

 

for the

 

1.2

 

thoughts?

[Matts Eagles 25]

so, Im in a tough spot.

 

I need a RB. and at 1.2, I was hoping for Bell. He was the only one I could take with no regrets. But now, I have an offer for the 1.2. All told it comes down to this

 

Goodson

Ivory

Hilton

Cecil Shorts

Rivers

2.02

2.11

 

for the

 

1.2

 

thoughts?

 

Wow do you have that many roster spots?

 

Goodson, Ivory, and Powell in Jets backfield too muddled...Rivers at QB which Rivers do you get..Shorts and Hilton give you good WR depth and 2.02 and 2,11 are draft flyers....

 

So if need the depth you win IMO...but who know who will start in Jets backfield....

 

 

Also who will you have to drop to take on these players..

[Matts Eagles 25]

Who to take at pick #1

 

 

I am thinking Austin.....need a young RB though maybe Lacy, Bernard, or Ball

 

 

12 team dynasty PPR

Start 1 qb, 1-3 rbs, 2-4 wrs, 1 te, 1 k, 1 def/st

I have pick 1.1, 2.11, 2.12

QBs
Rodgers, RGIII
RBs
Lynch, Bush, Turbin, Jon Stewart, Michael Turner, Lamichael James,
WR
Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Steve Smith, Torrey Smith, Lance Moore, Vincent Brown, Devonne Bess, Marvin Jones
TE
Gronk, Fasano, Kendricks, Fleener, Ladarius Green
K
Blair Walsh
D/St Seahawks, Panthers

[coryjagfan28 0]

 

Wow do you have that many roster spots?

 

Goodson, Ivory, and Powell in Jets backfield too muddled...Rivers at QB which Rivers do you get..Shorts and Hilton give you good WR depth and 2.02 and 2,11 are draft flyers....

 

So if need the depth you win IMO...but who know who will start in Jets backfield....

 

 

Also who will you have to drop to take on these players..

 

I could drop Benson, DHB, and Shaun hill

 

I have Bush and Doug Martin as starters, with a Jets RB as my bye week

 

Josh Gordon, Reggie Wayne, Garcon, Sanu

 

and start Stafford at QB with Rivers as a backup

[coryjagfan28 0]

Who to take at pick #1

 

 

I am thinking Austin.....need a young RB though maybe Lacy, Bernard, or Ball

 

 

12 team dynasty PPR

 

Start 1 qb, 1-3 rbs, 2-4 wrs, 1 te, 1 k, 1 def/st

 

I have pick 1.1, 2.11, 2.12

 

QBs

Rodgers, RGIII

RBs

Lynch, Bush, Turbin, Jon Stewart, Michael Turner, Lamichael James,

WR

Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Steve Smith, Torrey Smith, Lance Moore, Vincent Brown, Devonne Bess, Marvin Jones

TE

Gronk, Fasano, Kendricks, Fleener, Ladarius Green

K

Blair Walsh

D/St Seahawks, Panthers

 

 

I see WR as a need. Especially with you only needing to start 1 RB

 

Austin would be my pick. Maybe even move back 2-3 spots to a RB needy team, and pick up more players or move up in the 2nd

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

so, Im in a tough spot.

 

I need a RB. and at 1.2, I was hoping for Bell. He was the only one I could take with no regrets. But now, I have an offer for the 1.2. All told it comes down to this

 

Goodson

Ivory

Hilton

Cecil Shorts

Rivers

2.02

2.11

 

for the

 

1.2

 

thoughts?

Wow, that is a lot of player for one rookie pick. I would have to say take the deal if youre pretty sure bell will be gone. I like shorts potential a lot, its just his qb situation that scares me.

 

Hilton is a bit undersized but he could be playing with the next peyton manning.

 

Ivory is a solid back on a terrible team. You at least lock up the jets backfield with goodson.

 

If leveon bell is going to be there for sure at 1.2 i would most likely prefer him. Pittsburg is a savy franchise that isnt going to allow their team to become a talentless sack of shlt like the jets. Fock thats a tough one.

[Matt Mueller 146]

so, Im in a tough spot.

 

I need a RB. and at 1.2, I was hoping for Bell. He was the only one I could take with no regrets. But now, I have an offer for the 1.2. All told it comes down to this

 

Goodson

Ivory

Hilton

Cecil Shorts

Rivers

2.02

2.11

 

for the

 

1.2

 

thoughts?

 

Wow. I'd strongly consider that and depending upon your team would think about taking it. Ivory and Goodson could pan out as well as any rookie RB drafted. Hilton and Shorts could be emerging WR2s and are at least WR3s. There's a lot of talent there and you could take an RB flyer at 2.02.

[Kopy 491]

 

I could drop Benson, DHB, and Shaun hill

 

I have Bush and Doug Martin as starters, with a Jets RB as my bye week

 

Josh Gordon, Reggie Wayne, Garcon, Sanu

 

and start Stafford at QB with Rivers as a backup

I think I'd do that deal.

[Cstriker 2]

ivory + hilton + shorts is > 1.2 who is this nutjob giving up so much for one pick in this years draft? And you get his 2nd round picks on top of that? Thats rape by every count, in your favor. This is the kinda trade that could throw the balance of the league.

[lesjroza 70]

What is everyone's opinion on Santonio Holmes's dynasty value?

Does the guy have anything left in the tank? If a league stars 4 wr's. Can he still be counted on as a 3 or 4. Or is he done.

 

Kopy, I want to thank you again for sharing your thoughts on rookie prospects and want to apologize for not yet having done so myself to any great legnth. I have noted in this thread some of my reasons for not having done so as of yet.

 

I drafted Holmes in the recent FB sister startup mentioned elsewhere in this thread and am happy to share my reasoning for doing so at the time.

 

First to put things fully in perspective I drafted Holmes in the 17th round so if your cutdown is to 17 rounds or less he could be a cut, even in my estimation. He is on the WW in my short roster dynasty leagues which have 18 roster slots but include a K and a D where I have no intention of picking him up. Additionally, this is a league that requires 3 wrs and 2 flex slots for starters so the amount of currently producing players required is a bit greater than the norm for a team that hopes to be competitive this year.

 

Before S. Holmes got hurt last year he was statistically on his way to a 1000 yard season which would have made him a solid WR3 in PPR leagues. I actually see no reason this should not be a realistic base case this year. There are risk factors you must discount however. The first is the injury from last year. It is a very serious injury for a skill position player and there is no gaurantee his foot will heal properly or that he will not have a recurrence at some point. The rest of the factors I would just combine to call "snowball" effect and have the potential to go either positively or negatively.

 

As you have noted this is a contract year for Holmes so from his perspective he has a great incentive to produce. At the same time the Jets lack of contractual committment to him could manifest itself on the playing field at some point. For instance, if they have made the decision to move on either already, or will at some point in the year, would you be surprised to see Holmes getting less snaps/targets in favor of players they are trying to develop? If that plays out given Holmes past actions how do you think he would/will handle that emotionally with all that he has riding on this year?

The QB situation is unlikely to be any better than in the recent past and though he was on his way to a solid FF season last year despite the offense, it is possible that his emotional state in a contract year could magnify any struggles and cause him to act out.While my base case is WR3, from my comments you can see that what I really expect is either better or significantly worse including the potential for a complete bust/blow-up.

 

Given the current state of the Jets roster I think the likely course is rebuild and I personally would not see Holmes fitting into that scenario. At the same time if you want to properly develop your QB/QBs it is helpful to play WRs who have experience. Its nice for a developing team to experience some taste of success. So, again, I think the potential is there to snowball either way depending on how things go in the early season.

 

Given that outlook I thouht he was a reasonable risk in round 17, but at that point I am dedicating a roster slot to a vet with a risky profile with limited upside rather than a younger prospect so alot could depend on the makeup of your roster and the level of confidence you have in the prospects available. Part of my risk/reward analysis in this case was that the WW will not open in this league until after week 1 at which point I will be able to cut Holmes if his injury or other rears its ugly head between now and then without having completely lost the opportunity to roster another up and comer who flashes between now and then. I won't be gauranteed of getting who I want to replace him, but will be on equal footing with those who want to make moves on the guys who popped between the draft and the beginning of week 2.

[Cstriker 2]

Well said Les. Thats pretty much how i feel about him. Except i also felt that he was never trusted enough in any offense 100% like you would trust a true #1 WR. Either because of the skill set or because of the personality.

[lesjroza 70]

Well said Les. Thats pretty much how i feel about him. Except i also felt that he was never trusted enough in any offense 100% like you would trust a true #1 WR. Either because of the skill set or because of the personality.

 

Great! Because now I'm going to disagree with you in answering the question Cory posed.

 

To me Cory, it just comes down to whether you value the player you will get at 1.02 more than Ivory. If your need is RB you should judge the trade based on that and the rest is a red herring IMO.

 

If the player at 1.02 is a true difference maker then weigh that against whether you think Ivory will be a difference maker. Last year I took D. Martin at 1.02 in one league so to put a face to it would guys feel differently about trading all involved for D. Martin? I'm not saying 1.02 will yield the same this year, likely not IMO, but I am saying its not silly for the guy making that offer if he thinks he is getting a difference maker.

 

All the guys he is offering were likely on the WW in many leagues at some point last year except for Rivers who probably should have been and all still have question marks next to their name, even Shorts with concussions. I was fortunate to have picked up Ivory off the WW as a stash last year at the end of the season in 2 leagues and have already flipped him in 1 league myself.

[lesjroza 70]

Matt Eagles, not a ton of need on that roster but if something took a turn for the worse it seems more likely on the RB side. If you are not sold on which RB, which is kind of how it sounds, I honestly would explore trading down. If I had 1.01 I would look at trading down around the middle of the 1st and trying to bump a 2014 2nd to a 2014 1st. It might be worth exploring if you're not sure who you want.

[Cstriker 2]

 

Great! Because now I'm going to disagree with you in answering the question Cory posed.

 

To me Cory, it just comes down to whether you value the player you will get at 1.02 more than Ivory. If your need is RB you should judge the trade based on that and the rest is a red herring IMO.

 

If the player at 1.02 is a true difference maker then weigh that against whether you think Ivory will be a difference maker. Last year I took D. Martin at 1.02 in one league so to put a face to it would guys feel differently about trading all involved for D. Martin? I'm not saying 1.02 will yield the same this year, likely not IMO, but I am saying its not silly for the guy making that offer if he thinks he is getting a difference maker.

 

All the guys he is offering were likely on the WW in many leagues at some point last year except for Rivers who probably should have been and all still have question marks next to their name, even Shorts with concussions. I was fortunate to have picked up Ivory off the WW as a stash last year at the end of the season in 2 leagues and have already flipped him in 1 league myself.

 

Shorts and Hilton on waiver sounds like a shallow league. It can happen. But i see them rostered even in a 10 teamer, except if the cutdown will only allow a handful of keepers.

[lesjroza 70]

I've only had one rookie draft so far this year, but we had the following I consider good bargains past round 1:

 

2.1 WR Robert Woods, BUF- should start this season in an offense that is trying to go uptempo.

2.2 WR Markus Wheaton, PIT- good deep receiver in an offense that uses them.

2.4 RB Zac Stacy, L.A.- goalline should be his, may be the starter as well.

2.5 WR Aaron Dobson, N.E.- already projected as a starter from what I've seen so far.

2.12 QB Geno Smith, N.Y.J.- will start at some point this year.

3.6 TE Zach Ertz, PHI- will likely be the move TE in two TE sets and split time in one TE sets.

3.8 WR Josh Boyce, N.E.- competing with several others for a #2 or #3 spot.

3.11 RB Latavius Murray, OAK- expected to be the #2 behinf oft injured Darren McFadden, could replace him if McFadden misses time once again.

3.12 WR Ryan Swope, ARI- shot at being the #3, could move up in a year or two.

4.4 QB Mike Glennon, T.B.- one Freeman slump away from getting his shot, may start next season when Freeman becomes a free agent.

4.5 WR Charles Johnson, G.B.- track star speed and huge production in a weak conferance, signed with a great offense that spreads the ball around.

4.6 WR Tavaress King, DEN- shot at being the #4 this year, could move up in a couple seasons.

4.8 RB Knile Davis, K.C.- great talent, poor RB. Team is working one him, could be great if given the right training / chance.

4.11 QB Matt Barkley, PHI- likely starts in Philly next season if Vick doesn't produce.

5.3 QB Tylor Wilson, OAK- may earn the start by the time the season starts.

5.4 RB Kerwynn Williams, IND- not a lot in front of him at this point, could replace Brown this season, Ballard in a year or two.

 

There's talent there, the problems with this draft are at the top imo.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Its a good list Rholio and I appreciate you taking the time to make it. I have even drafted a coupe of those guys myself in a startup because I felt they have a shot at turning into productive FF players. Woods probably belongs in the 1st round of most drafts. I drafted Stacy in the late 12th and Johnson in the early 19th because I felt they represented decent values at those spots in my startup.

 

The second part of the exercise I was recomending is looking at current NFL players and seeing where you think the rookies will fit into that group over time. My point was that I feel the slot I see most of these players being drafted in startups is still overvalued relative to their risk/reward of current NFL players so that while the rookie class may be deep relative to one another it is not necessarily deep in terms of talent likely to be FF difference makers.

It is a difficult thing to judge and obviously extremely subjective so I'm not sure there is much more to say here and certainly nothing to be proven one way or the other.

 

Still if you wanted to get and idea of where I'm coming from, pull up a list of WRs 25-60 in a ppr league for season totals last year and then compare it to your list of rookies and where you think they can fit in. The depth of talent in the league already producing FF stats, particularly at WR, is amazing.

[lesjroza 70]

 

Shorts and Hilton on waiver sounds like a shallow league. It can happen. But i see them rostered even in a 10 teamer, except if the cutdown will only allow a handful of keepers.

 

These players are not on waivers now any more than Ivory is in most leagues. I wasn't trying to intimate that sorry for the confusion. They all were on waivers in some of my leagues last year until they had circumstances arise, and had enough talent to take advatage, to get increasing playing time and production. As I said I did pick up Ivory in 2 leagues as late as after the NFL season ended. There are similar players in every year, some will take the next step, most will not, and many will be back on the WW next year.

Hilton saw increasing targets last year but would anyone be shocked if Brazil passed him at some point in the pecking order in Indy?

Shorts IMO is for real, and has a nice window with the Blackmon suspension, but the back to back concussions in such a short period are a concern and he doesn't seem like he can be a consistent #1 NFL WR, more of a great #2. With things so unsettled in JAX there are alot of similar WRs in most leagues and I don't see him as a special asset at this point.

 

My overarching suggestion is that I don't think the other parts are worthy of assigning significant value in the deal. If Cory had said WR depth is a concern then the assesment could be different. The number of roster slots are in this league can come into play certainly, but over time I just think that the owner who gets the best player in a deal generally comes out as the winner.

To me lots of slightly above average pieces does not equal more, though I understand depth is important.

 

Both cory's stated area of need and my opinion weighting quality over depth, resulted in my comments and weighing Ivory vs 1.02 as the focal point.

 

Both of our viewpoints are valid approaches. Its cool that we are in leagues together where we can test our viewpoints against each other now.

[Stewburtx8 67]

 

I could drop Benson, DHB, and Shaun hill

 

I have Bush and Doug Martin as starters, with a Jets RB as my bye week

 

Josh Gordon, Reggie Wayne, Garcon, Sanu

 

and start Stafford at QB with Rivers as a backup

 

Normally I don't like quantity for quality trades, because usually the person on the "quality" end wins the trade. But in this case, I don't think the 1.02 is high "quality." I honestly think Tavon Austin is the safest pick (that also has upside) among the rookies in PPR. I can't see him not being a PPR asset in the NFL. The Rams didn't draft him that high to not find ways to get him the ball. I expect him to lead the Rams in targets right away. When looking at the RB's, I think Montee Ball and Le'Veon Bell have the most immediate value and paths to a lot of touches in their rookie years. Long term in PPR, I like Bernard and Franklin better though. For someone looking for a RB this year, I don't see much difference between the 1.02 and a mid/late first round rookie pick, or even an early 2nd rounder.

 

So while I don't love any of the players you are receiving in the trade, you are getting some solid guys who can start for you and provide depth right away. When looking at your roster, would you rather have:

 

Martin, R.Bush, Ivory

Wayne, Garcon, Shorts, Gordon, Hilton

Plus Rivers as a backup QB and whatever you can add with the 2nd round picks

 

OR

 

Martin, R.Bush, Montee Ball

Wayne, Garcon, Gordon, Sanu, DHB

Shaun Hill as a backup QB

 

The first roster seems to make the most sense to me and give you the most flexibility unless you think Montee Ball (or Bell, Bernard, Lacy) are Doug Martin. I don't really see a Doug Martin in this rookie class. Maybe an Alfred Morris type emerges, but Alfred Morris was hardly a high rookie pick last season. Maybe you find someone like that with the 2nd round picks anyways. Just my opinion.

[Stewburtx8 67]

Who to take at pick #1

 

 

I am thinking Austin.....need a young RB though maybe Lacy, Bernard, or Ball

 

 

12 team dynasty PPR

 

Start 1 qb, 1-3 rbs, 2-4 wrs, 1 te, 1 k, 1 def/st

 

I have pick 1.1, 2.11, 2.12

 

QBs

Rodgers, RGIII

RBs

Lynch, Bush, Turbin, Jon Stewart, Michael Turner, Lamichael James,

WR

Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Steve Smith, Torrey Smith, Lance Moore, Vincent Brown, Devonne Bess, Marvin Jones

TE

Gronk, Fasano, Kendricks, Fleener, Ladarius Green

K

Blair Walsh

D/St Seahawks, Panthers

 

I'm a proponent of always taking the BPA regardless of your roster. As I said in my last post, I think Tavon Austin is the safest/most projectable rookie in PPR (and he also has upside). I would take him at 1.01 in PPR rookie drafts. If you want a RB THAT badly, I would try to trade back to 1.04-1.08 and try to grab a Bernard or Franklin. Just my opinion.

[lesjroza 70]

In a league that I took over an orphan this offseason the 1st round of the rookie draft just went down. I had already traded away 1.07 for Vereen after I finished about half of my rookie evaluation.

Its a 25 slot ppr league and the team I took over was in need of RB depth.

 

Here is the draft and i thought it worthy of posting because it is pretty different from most I have seen just a couple of weeks earlier. 1st WR at 1.06 and Gio went 4th.

 

 

s 1.01 1. Aaron it Out Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB ® Wed May 15 8:12:59 a.m. ET 2013

1.02 2. Mean Machine Lacy, Eddie GBP RB ® Wed May 15 9:20:22 a.m. ET 2013

1.03 3. Men of Steel Ball, Montee DEN RB ® Wed May 15 9:20:23 a.m. ET 2013 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

1.04 4. Scorpions Bernard, Giovani CIN RB ® Wed May 15 11:58:03 a.m. ET 2013

1.05 5. Scorpions Franklin, Johnathan GBP RB ® Wed May 15 3:19:27 p.m. ET 2013

1.06 6. Mean Machine Austin, Tavon STL WR ® Wed May 15 9:13:12 p.m. ET 2013

1.07 7. Mean Machine Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR ® Wed May 15 10:08:23 p.m. ET 2013

1.08 8. Scorpions Patterson, Cordarrelle MIN WR ® Wed May 15 10:29:40 p.m. ET 2013

1.09 9. Big Sack Stacy, Zac STL RB ® Wed May 15 11:48:29 p.m. ET 2013

1.10 10. Mountain Goats Eifert, Tyler CIN TE ® Thu May 16 1:00:11 a.m. ET 2013

1.11 11. Sun Devils Hunter, Justin TEN WR ® Thu May 16 7:28:07 a.m. ET 2013

1.12 12. Red Mile Flames Cameron, Jordan CLE TE Thu May 16 7:28:08 a.m. ET 2013 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

[coryjagfan28 0]

I appreciate all the opinions on the trade offer. In the end, it didnt matter, as he pulled back the offer. It got gradually smaller and smaller. Until, I just passed

[rholio 339]

 

Its a good list Rholio and I appreciate you taking the time to make it. I have even drafted a coupe of those guys myself in a startup because I felt they have a shot at turning into productive FF players. Woods probably belongs in the 1st round of most drafts. I drafted Stacy in the late 12th and Johnson in the early 19th because I felt they represented decent values at those spots in my startup.

The second part of the exercise I was recomending is looking at current NFL players and seeing where you think the rookies will fit into that group over time. My point was that I feel the slot I see most of these players being drafted in startups is still overvalued relative to their risk/reward of current NFL players so that while the rookie class may be deep relative to one another it is not necessarily deep in terms of talent likely to be FF difference makers.

It is a difficult thing to judge and obviously extremely subjective so I'm not sure there is much more to say here and certainly nothing to be proven one way or the other.

 

Still if you wanted to get and idea of where I'm coming from, pull up a list of WRs 25-60 in a ppr league for season totals last year and then compare it to your list of rookies and where you think they can fit in. The depth of talent in the league already producing FF stats, particularly at WR, is amazing.

 

 

We're in agreement there, I was looking at an established dynasty league instead of in a start-up. Most of these players will need a season or two to develop / become dependable options, unlike the veterans that are already there. The league I posted from has 12 teams and 30 man rosters, so the vets are pretty thin at draft time.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

We're in agreement there, I was looking at an established dynasty league instead of in a start-up. Most of these players will need a season or two to develop / become dependable options, unlike the veterans that are already there. The league I posted from has 12 teams and 30 man rosters, so the vets are pretty thin at draft time.

A thirty man roster!? There is almost no challenge of who to cut/keep. You can pretty much keep any dickbeater who has an ounce of potential.

[rholio 339]

A thirty man roster!? There is almost no challenge of who to cut/keep. You can pretty much keep any dickbeater who has an ounce of potential.

 

Actually, the trick is to trade FOR the dickbeater with more than an ounce of potential, and give up the scrub you would drop anyway. You see some weird trades in this one. It is, however, a great league to watch who gets picked up, as they're usually well ahead of the curve on free agents during the season.

[Kopy 491]

In a league that I took over an orphan this offseason the 1st round of the rookie draft just went down. I had already traded away 1.07 for Vereen after I finished about half of my rookie evaluation.

Its a 25 slot ppr league and the team I took over was in need of RB depth.

 

Here is the draft and i thought it worthy of posting because it is pretty different from most I have seen just a couple of weeks earlier. 1st WR at 1.06 and Gio went 4th.

 

 

s 1.01 1. Aaron it Out Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB ® Wed May 15 8:12:59 a.m. ET 2013

1.02 2. Mean Machine Lacy, Eddie GBP RB ® Wed May 15 9:20:22 a.m. ET 2013

1.03 3. Men of Steel Ball, Montee DEN RB ® Wed May 15 9:20:23 a.m. ET 2013 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

1.04 4. Scorpions Bernard, Giovani CIN RB ® Wed May 15 11:58:03 a.m. ET 2013

1.05 5. Scorpions Franklin, Johnathan GBP RB ® Wed May 15 3:19:27 p.m. ET 2013

1.06 6. Mean Machine Austin, Tavon STL WR ® Wed May 15 9:13:12 p.m. ET 2013

1.07 7. Mean Machine Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR ® Wed May 15 10:08:23 p.m. ET 2013

1.08 8. Scorpions Patterson, Cordarrelle MIN WR ® Wed May 15 10:29:40 p.m. ET 2013

1.09 9. Big Sack Stacy, Zac STL RB ® Wed May 15 11:48:29 p.m. ET 2013

1.10 10. Mountain Goats Eifert, Tyler CIN TE ® Thu May 16 1:00:11 a.m. ET 2013

1.11 11. Sun Devils Hunter, Justin TEN WR ® Thu May 16 7:28:07 a.m. ET 2013

1.12 12. Red Mile Flames Cameron, Jordan CLE TE Thu May 16 7:28:08 a.m. ET 2013 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

You traded 1.07 for Shane Vereen?

[Stewburtx8 67]

You traded 1.07 for Shane Vereen?

 

Seems like a really good trade to me, especially because I am down on this rookie class. Vereen is in line for a huge increase in touches/playing time this year. He should step right in to the Danny Woodhead 3rd down/passing down back role.

 

I wouldn't be shocked in PPR leagues if Vereen puts up similar points to Ridley in 2013 (or even exceeds him). Ridley finished with about 206 points in PPR last season. Woodhead put up 156 PPR points last season. Vereen put up 70 points in PPR.

 

So say Vereen gobbles up Woodhead's touches in 2013. Personally, I think Vereen is more talented than Woodhead. But isn't it very possible that Vereen puts up a season like this (or better): 550 rushing yards, 550 receiving yards, 45 receptions, 8 total TD's? That's over 200 fantasy points in PPR. I think their is upside for more. I think Vereen is a BIG buy this season (especially in PPR). Just my opinion.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Seems like a really good trade to me, especially because I am down on this rookie class. Vereen is in line for a huge increase in touches/playing time this year. He should step right in to the Danny Woodhead 3rd down/passing down back role.

 

I wouldn't be shocked in PPR leagues if Vereen puts up similar points to Ridley in 2013 (or even exceeds him). Ridley finished with about 206 points in PPR last season. Woodhead put up 156 PPR points last season. Vereen put up 70 points in PPR.

 

So say Vereen gobbles up Woodhead's touches in 2013. Personally, I think Vereen is more talented than Woodhead. But isn't it very possible that Vereen puts up a season like this (or better): 550 rushing yards, 550 receiving yards, 45 receptions, 8 total TD's? That's over 200 fantasy points in PPR. I think their is upside for more. I think Vereen is a BIG buy this season (especially in PPR). Just my opinion.

Holy fock i hope youre right. I personally think he is the best rb on their roster and would be a ridley injury away from rb1 status.

[Super Cubs 132]

Which team do you like better

 

Team A - Brees, McCoy, D Wilson, CJ, AJ Green, Gonzo

Team B - Brees, D Wilson, C Ivory, CJ, AJ Green, Andre Johnson

[rholio 339]

Which team do you like better

 

Team A - Brees, McCoy, D Wilson, CJ, AJ Green, Gonzo

Team B - Brees, D Wilson, C Ivory, CJ, AJ Green, Andre Johnson

 

the A-Team

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

Which team do you like better

 

Team A - Brees, McCoy, D Wilson, CJ, AJ Green, Gonzo

Team B - Brees, D Wilson, C Ivory, CJ, AJ Green, Andre Johnson

A by a wide margin. Mccoy is better than ivory as far as we know and gonzo is a one year rental but andre is no spring chicken. Losing andre is well worth the jump from ivory to mccoy esprcially if this is ppr

[lesjroza 70]

You traded 1.07 for Shane Vereen?

 

Yes, I did.

 

Here are the trades I have made for Vereen in dynasty leagues, they are all full PPR. I like Vereen for his upside in full PPR but I think he would be very risky to count on as a starter. Really it doesn't take much in the way of screwups during a game or even in practice to find yourself not a part of the gameplan in NE. He is a RB 3/4 IMO with great hopes he will outperform.

Here are the deals I have done for him.

 

This was back in March after I was mostly done with my rookie evaluations and was pretty sure I wasn't going to get anything I really wanted at 1.07. It was an orphan team that has quite a few worthless players as you can see from this deal. how many leagues do you think Batch is owned in? This guy owned Plaxico, 3 Ds, and on and on. The thing that really sucks is that the WW doesn't open until after week 1 !

 

 

15. Underdog! / Killer Racoons Trade

• Underdog! gave up Batch, Charlie PIT QB; Year 2013 Draft Pick 1.07
• Killer Racoons gave up Vereen, Shane NEP RB

Thu Mar 21 10:17:41 a.m. ET 2013

 

This was in a league that is a $100 salary cap dynasty with a cutdown to $50. Its a more complicated deal than it appears because of the contract salaries but Vereen is at $3.

I think most guys at the time probably thought I lost the deal but folks are coming around to Vereen's upside now I think.There are actually alot of good contracts in this deal and it was to the Lynch owner.

 

 

Arizona Cardinals / Green Bay Packers Trade

• Arizona Cardinals gave up Locker, Jake TEN QB;Green-Ellis, BenJarvus CIN RB;Vereen, Shane NEP RB
• Green Bay Packers gave up Mendenhall, Rashard ARI RB;Turbin, Robert SEA RB;Hartline, Brian MIA WR

Fri Mar 22 5:38:08 p.m. ET 2013

 

 

 

This was a week or so ago to the Blackmon owner who has a situation with the suspension. I hadn't been able to work anything out with him until that popped up.

 

 

2. Scorpion / Voice of Truth Trade

• Scorpion gave up Vereen, Shane NEP RB
• Voice of Truth gave up Shorts, Cecil JAC WR
• Comments: really like vereen but since blackmon suspended

Wed May 8 8:58:27 p.m. ET 2013

[coryjagfan28 0]

Just completed the first round of our rookie draft. Here it went. Very similar to Les's

 

1. Le'Veon Bell

2. Eddie Lacy

3. Montee Ball

4. Giovanni Bernard

5. Corderelle Patterson

6. Deandre Hopkins

7. Tavon Austin

8. Tyler Eifert

9. Jonathan Franklin

10. Marcus Wheaton

11. Joseph Randel

12. Zac Stacy

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Just completed the first round of our rookie draft. Here it went. Very similar to Les's

 

1. Le'Veon Bell

2. Eddie Lacy

3. Montee Ball

4. Giovanni Bernard

5. Corderelle Patterson

6. Deandre Hopkins

7. Tavon Austin

8. Tyler Eifert

9. Jonathan Franklin

10. Marcus Wheaton

11. Joseph Randel

12. Zac Stacy

The draft started without me?! Noooooo!

[Kopy 491]

 

 

Yes, I did.

 

Here are the trades I have made for Vereen in dynasty leagues, they are all full PPR. I like Vereen for his upside in full PPR but I think he would be very risky to count on as a starter. Really it doesn't take much in the way of screwups during a game or even in practice to find yourself not a part of the gameplan in NE. He is a RB 3/4 IMO with great hopes he will outperform.

Here are the deals I have done for him.

 

This was back in March after I was mostly done with my rookie evaluations and was pretty sure I wasn't going to get anything I really wanted at 1.07. It was an orphan team that has quite a few worthless players as you can see from this deal. how many leagues do you think Batch is owned in? This guy owned Plaxico, 3 Ds, and on and on. The thing that really sucks is that the WW doesn't open until after week 1 !

 

 

15. Underdog! / Killer Racoons Trade

• Underdog! gave up Batch, Charlie PIT QB; Year 2013 Draft Pick 1.07
• Killer Racoons gave up Vereen, Shane NEP RB

Thu Mar 21 10:17:41 a.m. ET 2013

 

This was in a league that is a $100 salary cap dynasty with a cutdown to $50. Its a more complicated deal than it appears because of the contract salaries but Vereen is at $3.

I think most guys at the time probably thought I lost the deal but folks are coming around to Vereen's upside now I think.There are actually alot of good contracts in this deal and it was to the Lynch owner.

 

 

Arizona Cardinals / Green Bay Packers Trade

• Arizona Cardinals gave up Locker, Jake TEN QB;Green-Ellis, BenJarvus CIN RB;Vereen, Shane NEP RB
• Green Bay Packers gave up Mendenhall, Rashard ARI RB;Turbin, Robert SEA RB;Hartline, Brian MIA WR

Fri Mar 22 5:38:08 p.m. ET 2013

 

 

 

This was a week or so ago to the Blackmon owner who has a situation with the suspension. I hadn't been able to work anything out with him until that popped up.

 

 

2. Scorpion / Voice of Truth Trade

• Scorpion gave up Vereen, Shane NEP RB
• Voice of Truth gave up Shorts, Cecil JAC WR
• Comments: really like vereen but since blackmon suspended

Wed May 8 8:58:27 p.m. ET 2013

 

 

I hope it works out for ya. To each their own on RB's, as we all have our own RB's we'll swear by. Heck, I'm still a member of the Jonathan Stewart and Donald Brown fan clubs.

And let me tell you. There's plenty of room on those buses. I just can't seem to let let those 2 go and say I was wrong.