First Non Official FFToday Mock Draft Discussion

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

i think somehow it turned into lets quietly mock on MFL so people are no longer presenting their picks over here.

[Matt Mueller 146]

I'll keep presenting to give some energy and keep some momentum.

 

I had a tough time with this pick. I was thinking of taking Eli if he was still on the board simply b/c he was the most valuable player left imo but carrying 2 quality qbs comes with it's own disadvantages in a shallow league so I was kind of happy I didn't have to make that choice.

 

I thought about going WR or even TE to add another solid flex but I felt there were only about 3 running backs left that could be difference makers without injury in front of them and I decided to take my guy Ingram who I just dealt for in the Zealots dynasty league.

 

We all the know the case against him. High draft pick, buried in a committee, doesn't catch passes, relatively unimpressive.

 

I'll give the case for him, specifically as it relates to this draft. Just based on talent alone a lot of rookies have gone and I'm of the opinion that if Ingram was in this class he'd likely be in the mix for the top rb.

 

His first year he was injured with turf toe and totally underwhelmed. He had an off season knee operation and really didn't seem 100% healthy until the 2nd half of last season.

 

On top of that the Saints were decimated by bounty gate. A team that often led late in games found it's self in catchup mode. A between the tackles grinder like Ingram really wasn't used as much as Sproles/Thomas were.

 

I think that has a chance to flip next year. I expect the Saints to rebound.

 

Towards the end of last season Ingram finally seemed healthy while averaging over 4.5 in the 2nd half of the season and splashing in 4 tds. Most importantly the Saints seemed committed to making him the 'running back' and he received the vast majority of the carries.

 

Certainly if Ivory is back in the mix he might bust again but I think he's got a shot at being a Ridley lite between the tackles and goal line guy for the Saints. Maybe optimistic but I'm giving him an upside of 1,000 yards and 10 tds if things break right next year.

[BufordT 371]

Appreciate the effort on this one, MM, but not sold. His only real value is closing out games in the 4th quarter protecting a big lead. Maybe some goal line work, too. Sproles and Thomas are still around and as long as they're healthy, they'll get theirs, too. But hey, it's the 10th round so he's definitely worth a flier. The 4.5 ypc number might be a bit ambitious, though.

 

On a different note, a couple of things I may have learned from this mock...

 

-regardless on draft position, I'll be taking 3 RB's in the first 4 rounds with a top notch WR in either round 1 or 2

-I'm starting to like Andrew Luck more and more...I think getting DHB was a great (kind of under the radar) signing.

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

in my normal redraft leagues... actually i dont seem to have any of those anymore... i would definitely go RB-RB-RB. I've always been a RB early and often kind of drafter but the talent pools at QB and WR are just crazy and I do not think you gain much, if any advantage by taking a WR in round 1 or round 2.

 

I could get behind the idea of taking a WR in the first 3 rounds as long as you know you can get a difference maker at RB in round 4. I did not feel this was possible from my 5 hole in this draft. However, if I was late round 1, which is early round 4 and could snag a Reggie Bush or Darren Sproles in the 4th round as my RB3 I would be all aboard the idea of RB/WR RB/RB

[Matt Mueller 146]

I understand. I was just doing my best to sell him...and honestly I do believe there is a chance of a breakout here and with Sproles being 30 and P.T 29 I do think they want to get their 23 year old 1st round back more involved.

 

The 4.5 thing was simply how he played the 2nd half of last year. He is a rotoworld update on him after his best game of the season week 14 vs Tampa Bay. Granted it was a blowout so take it with a grain of salt.

 

Mark Ingram believes he is playing his best football since entering the league as a first-round pick in 2011.

Ingram is averaging 4.82 YPC over the past seven games after managing just 2.9 in the first seven. "It's funny; I think he is one of those backs that he gets stronger as the game goes on," interim coach Joe Vitt said. Ingram forced five missed tackles and averaged 4.8 yards after contact per attempt against the league's No. 1 run defense last week. Thu, Dec 20, 2012 07:25:00 PM

 

While I was searching around for stuff on Ingram today I came across this bold prediction which totally dwarfs mine:

 

Mark Ingram will become a fantasy starter, finally. Pierre Thomas turns 29 this year. Darren Sproles turns 30. And the Saints' Sean Payton loves to mix backs into a wide-open passing game. Ingram is not yet a receiver, or much of a part of the offense yet, but the disappointing first-round pick is primed to break out at the prime age of 23.

 

Here is an early (bold) projection for Ingram, who is going to be drafted modestly in the middle rounds: 250 carries, 1,100 yards rushing, 45 receptions for 300 yards and 12-plus touchdowns combined. He is going to be a great value relative to draft position and might even be able to trump those incredibly optimistic totals

 

 

I'm not sure what this guy was smoking when he came up with those numbers but I actually like most of his other calls. Spiller and Fitz were nearly taken instead of Lynch and Wayne for me. A worthwhile read at this point in the season.

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/fantasy/news/20130107/fantasy-football-predictions/

[Matt Mueller 146]

in my normal redraft leagues... actually i dont seem to have any of those anymore... i would definitely go RB-RB-RB. I've always been a RB early and often kind of drafter but the talent pools at QB and WR are just crazy and I do not think you gain much, if any advantage by taking a WR in round 1 or round 2.

 

I could get behind the idea of taking a WR in the first 3 rounds as long as you know you can get a difference maker at RB in round 4. I did not feel this was possible from my 5 hole in this draft. However, if I was late round 1, which is early round 4 and could snag a Reggie Bush or Darren Sproles in the 4th round as my RB3 I would be all aboard the idea of RB/WR RB/RB

 

That's where I am at too. I will take a WR in the 2nd/3rd if I'm confident in landing a Bush/Sproles type.

 

To a lesser degree Ballard would be my fall back but after him I think there's a lot of guys I wouldn't want to rely on starting weekly.

 

Also sorry for turning this into a big Mark Ingram preach. I researched him a lot in the off season so I'm a bit over excited still. I have a collection of his best runs which highlight different skills if anyone is interested PM me. I do think he's an undervalued dynasty target.

[giraldi02 470]

Two guys that I had my eyes on at the previous turn were both available to me this round and I am certainly glad with both of them. From everything I have read about Kendall Hunter, he is well on pace to be ready for training camp and if so, it's only a matter of time before his ADP rises heavily. Frank Gore will be 30 years old next month and while he's stayed healthy for the past two seasons, I am generally skeptical of backs 30+ years old. In limited action Hunter brought a great change of pace to the 49ers offense and averaged over 5 yards a carry.

 

Heath Miller isn't a sexy name when it comes to tight ends, but the guy catches nearly everything thrown his way (70% catch rate last year). Miller was only one of 8 tight ends that received at least 100 targets during the regular season. With Mike Wallace leaving town, I fully expect Miller to be an integral part of the passing offense again in 2013. Another positive...Miller has only missed 5 games during his 8 year career.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Agree on Hunter. If I was playing safe that would have been my pick. Gore has all the extra carries from the superbowl run too.

[BufordT 371]

I'm no Einstein when it comes to mathematics but I got Ingram averaging 4.15 ypc over the last 8 games last year.

 

Good article overall....but having Ingram going from 6 receptions to 45 is definitely very bold.

 

As usual, you backed up your case very well, though.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Yeah. Ingram could be in the 25-30 range in receptions. Maybe 2 a game. It would actually help him b/c the Saints told their hand all too often by only running him up the middle last year. It was horrible game planning imo.

 

The 4.15 number is probably right. That rotworld update was from week 15 so it was comparing the first 7 games of the season with next last 7.

 

Looks like we've got some good discussion and draft momentum again. Boom.

[Voltaire 4,558]

Two guys that I had my eyes on at the previous turn were both available to me this round and I am certainly glad with both of them. From everything I have read about Kendall Hunter, he is well on pace to be ready for training camp and if so, it's only a matter of time before his ADP rises heavily. Frank Gore will be 30 years old next month and while he's stayed healthy for the past two seasons, I am generally skeptical of backs 30+ years old. In limited action Hunter brought a great change of pace to the 49ers offense and averaged over 5 yards a carry.

 

Heath Miller isn't a sexy name when it comes to tight ends, but the guy catches nearly everything thrown his way (70% catch rate last year). Miller was only one of 8 tight ends that received at least 100 targets during the regular season. With Mike Wallace leaving town, I fully expect Miller to be an integral part of the passing offense again in 2013. Another positive...Miller has only missed 5 games during his 8 year career.

He only missed five games in his 8 year career but he tore his ACL in the last game of the year and has six years more wear-and-tear on his body than his unproductive 2012 teammate Mendenhall who had the same thing. He's going to miss a minimum of six games in 2013 if he's on the PUP list to start the season.

[GreenTD 56]

Yeah. Ingram could be in the 25-30 range in receptions. Maybe 2 a game. It would actually help him b/c the Saints told their hand all too often by only running him up the middle last year. It was horrible game planning imo.

 

The 4.15 number is probably right. That rotworld update was from week 15 so it was comparing the first 7 games of the season with next last 7.

 

Looks like we've got some good discussion and draft momentum again. Boom.

 

I honestly had Ingram penciled in as my 10th round pick until I realized Jaquizz Rodgers was still available. In a PPR format I felt he was more valuable due to his propensity in the passing game & his age compared to the aging SJax.

 

But for the same reasons MM stated, I think with an injury to Sproles or Thomas, Ingram has the best chances of a potential 1,000 yard back coming from the 10th round. Well worth the risk as a RB4. Solid selection Matt.

[Voltaire 4,558]

 

11.03 Daniels, Owen Hou TE

Congratulations

[Matt Mueller 146]

Daniels is a steal here imo. Basically the 2nd option and to top it off James Casey is out of the picture. I thought about him as a flex play last round. I think he's better than most WR options at this point.

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

I wanted olsen with daniels miller or myers as fall back options. All those guys went first. Admittedly I forgot casey moved on. Might now prefer Daniels

[Matt Mueller 146]

Good pick on Wright. I debated him. He was probably the most consistent rookie WR and could blossom into a reliable ppr target. I started him a couple times last year.

[Matt Mueller 146]

polecat is making a strong push for the most time on the clock award.

[BufordT 371]

My refresh button is getting worn out!

[Voltaire 4,558]

I guessed wrong in round ten.

 

I thought there would/might be a QB run late 10/early 11 and it was critical that I didn't miss the boat on it. My concern with Vick isn't his production, he thrives in a scoring system wih 4 pt passing TDs and no penalties for turnovers. While the Philly fans may not appreciate his 2012 efforts, I had him in such a league last year and had no complaints. When I said we have 13 QBs that I would be willing to start, he was on the list. He had a been the #9 QB in this scoring format when he got injured.

 

My concern is his injuries or his chance of getting benched, I can't have a QB miss half the season. It was critical that I get a durable one. If 10/11 went QB heavy, and I didn' have a QB2, I'd have been screwed.

 

But that QB run never panned out. If I could do the last two rounds over again, it'd have been Owen Daniels at 10.6 and either Dalton or the next best QB on my list in 11. That would have worked out best.

[Voltaire 4,558]

11.09 Marcus Lattimore RB

 

Love the kid but last I heard he wasn't expected to play this year.

[Voltaire 4,558]

Note to GreenTD ... throttlers preselects picks so when you go, use the site. You can go BTB and we can zoom right through those four picks.

[BufordT 371]

I know this forum generally scoffs at taking a Kicker/Defense this early. However, since 2007, when the Pat's decided they wanted to be a high-powered offense, Gostkowski has been in the top 5 every year. Minus the one year he got hurt. No other kicker out there can make this claim. To me, he's the best and safest value left. I don't like to see my kicker get outscored 3-10 pts every week and I don't believe this'll happen with Gostkowski.

[Matt Mueller 146]

I hope it doesn't matter too much but I wasn't thinking of this as a zero penalty turnover league. Just kind of standard league scoring with 4 points tds and .5 PPR. Sorry for any un clarity there.

 

Since Voltaire made his Vick pick with this in mind I would propose we do a low penalty turnover league...if we decide to setup and keep scoring for the players at all.

 

 

That said we are close to the finish so let's keep those picks coming in!

[ralphster 274]

That said we are close to the finish so let's keep those picks coming in!

 

That means YOU Polecat!

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

I know this forum generally scoffs at taking a Kicker/Defense this early. However, since 2007, when the Pat's decided they wanted to be a high-powered offense, Gostkowski has been in the top 5 every year. Minus the one year he got hurt. No other kicker out there can make this claim. To me, he's the best and safest value left. I don't like to see my kicker get outscored 3-10 pts every week and I don't believe this'll happen with Gostkowski.

 

i do scoff at it. its probably the one fantasy thing that I act elitist about. If you're taking a kicker before the 2nd to last round (second to last assuming you have someone you prefer and want to snatch him) then you're doing it wrong. there is just too much turnover at kicker in terms of top kickers each year. the first kicker drafted is almost never the top kicker at years end and the top kicker almost never repeats. I do understand your logic and even though its round 12, I would still wait.

 

 

that said, I love your antonio gates pick!

[BufordT 371]

i do scoff at it. its probably the one fantasy thing that I act elitist about. If you're taking a kicker before the 2nd to last round (second to last assuming you have someone you prefer and want to snatch him) then you're doing it wrong. there is just too much turnover at kicker in terms of top kickers each year. the first kicker drafted is almost never the top kicker at years end and the top kicker almost never repeats. I do understand your logic and even though its round 12, I would still wait.

 

 

that said, I love your antonio gates pick!

Did you just knock me down and pick me up in the same post...lol

 

I would generally agree. And if Gostkowski hasn't been in the top 5 for six straight years I would've waited....which I'll do with a defense.... for those of you paying attention.

 

Also, if he had been taken before I could get him, I would've waited until the last couple of rounds for a kicker.

 

Just one hypothetical... if you knew (I realize this is not possible) a kicker would finish the season in the top 5, would you take him earlier than normal?

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

Did you just knock me down and pick me up in the same post...lol

 

I would generally agree. And if Gostkowski hasn't been in the top 5 for six straight years I would've waited....which I'll do with a defense.... for those of you paying attention.

 

Also, if he had been taken before I could get him, I would've waited until the last couple of rounds for a kicker.

 

Just one hypothetical... if you knew (I realize this is not possible) a kicker would finish the season in the top 5, would you take him earlier than normal?

 

probably not. i say this because it's been a while since i worked the numbers but years ago when i did, the gap in points per game from a top 5 kicker was not all that much compared to a top 10 or 12 kicker. if you could guarantee me the top kicker and say that he would out score a top 10 guy by a wide enough margin, then yes i would probably take him earlier.

 

i know where youre coming from but i still think these rounds are better suited for positional sleepers than even securing a top 5 kicker.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Using FFToday stats in 2012

 

The #1 K averaged 9.6

 

# 6 K 8.3

 

#12 K 7.4

 

 

So in theory maybe you can gain a 2 point leg up on the competition but I've found that it's so varied week 2 week that having the #1 kicker doesn't guarantee you a weekly top placing unlike other scoring postions.

 

As an example Gotkowski was the #8 K the last 5 weeks of the season.

 

It's also very scoring dependent. Bonuse's for 40 and 50+ and negative points for missing factor in highly.

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

Using FFToday stats in 2012

 

The #1 K averaged 9.6

 

# 6 K 8.3

 

#12 K 7.4

 

 

So in theory maybe you can gain a 2 point leg up on the competition but I've found that it's so varied week 2 week that having the #1 kicker doesn't guarantee you a weekly top placing unlike other scoring postions.

 

As an example Gotkowski was the #8 K the last 5 weeks of the season.

 

It's also very scoring dependent. Bonuse's for 40 and 50+ and negative points for missing factor in highly.

 

thanks for this. its exactly what i was referring to. now, 2.2 ppg might come into play in your fantasy matchup but thats assuming you nailed the #1 kicker and your opponent is sporting #12. chances are, you'll both be somewhere between that and you're literally talking around a point per game.

 

the worst is when someone drafts a kicker early and says "i didnt see anything else that stood out so i made sure to get the best kicker" because it never works out that way.

[BufordT 371]

Using FFToday stats in 2012

 

The #1 K averaged 9.6

 

# 6 K 8.3

 

#12 K 7.4

 

 

So in theory maybe you can gain a 2 point leg up on the competition but I've found that it's so varied week 2 week that having the #1 kicker doesn't guarantee you a weekly top placing unlike other scoring postions.

 

As an example Gotkowski was the #8 K the last 5 weeks of the season.

 

It's also very scoring dependent. Bonuse's for 40 and 50+ and negative points for missing factor in highly.

I promise not to turn this into a Kicker thread but your post suggests that owners will automatically have the top 12 kickers on their rosters. An owner could easily wind up with the 20th ranked kicker in which case he's giving up 2+ points to a top 5 kicker. I play in couple of leagues where yearly points matter and 1 or 2 points a week add up.

 

Let me just say so there's no confusion, I agree with WW and MM in general, but the consistency Gostkowski has shown by being in the top 5 year-in and year-out makes him a special case. Now if he tanks it this year, I'm right back to square one with waiting on kicker until the last round or two of a draft.

[Matt Mueller 146]

No worries on turning it into a kicker thread from my standpoint. I'm happy to talk fantasy, even kickers, and any thread contributions are a ok in my book.

 

I understand what you are saying but I think you are assuming that Gotokowski is say a top 5 option himself week in week out and I don't think it shakes out that way. I am writing this before I do the stats which I will post below but that is my suspicion.

 

 

I'm using our Zealots league scoring, and spending way more time than I even want to on kickers, but this is how Gotokowski ranked week by week.

 

14, 1, 4, 11, 12, 12, 8, 10, 2, 12, 20, 9, 20, 7, 4, 24

 

 

I feel that if you are playing in some type of total points league getting a K who has finished top 5 for a few years running could be very shrewd pick. However in a week to week league I don't think there's much of a guarantee that the top K isn't outscored by someone who could be picked up from the waiver wire.

[throttlers 0]

11.12 Carson Palmer

12.01 Anquan Boldin

 

I hate using a draft pick on a backup QB lol. That being said, at the 11-12 turn around, it was time. There are still guys on the board that most sites have ranked ahead of Palmer, but like many, I am intrigued by him playing with Fitz. There are safer picks, but I think his ceiling is higher than most of the guys left. Boldin was a similar pick. There are guys rated higher, but I think his updside for a 12th round pick is pretty good, and I needed a 4th WR.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Fantasy wise Palmer was actually pretty decent in Oakland last year, thriving in garbage time. Using FFtoday stats his 19.9 points per game ranked 16th ahead of Eli Manning's 19.0

 

The biggest draw back with Palmer is simply the offensive line imo. This might be the best coach and def the best wr he's ever played with.

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

I promise not to turn this into a Kicker thread but your post suggests that owners will automatically have the top 12 kickers on their rosters. An owner could easily wind up with the 20th ranked kicker in which case he's giving up 2+ points to a top 5 kicker. I play in couple of leagues where yearly points matter and 1 or 2 points a week add up.

 

 

also not trying to turn this into a kicker thread but its good discussion.

 

the reason i assume owners will automatically have a top 12 kicker is because i see no reason for more than 1 to be owned in a 12 team league except when each owner is dealing with bye weeks and don't want to drop their current kicker. So even if you don't draft one of the year end top 12, you are likely able to get a Blair Walsh off waivers early on. i don't really see any scenario where having two active kickers is beneficial. And frankly, if i lose out on a top 12 kicker because multiple owners in my league are rostering more than 1 for long stretches of time, I can live with it knowing they are wasting a roster slot..... and I can probably throw a dart at a kicker and have him hit three field goals on any given week

 

i dont play in any leagues that are only based off of total scoring so i tend to focus on the wins and losses regardless of score but i do see your point there.

[ralphster 274]

So can we pick for Polecat yet? 31 hours and counting...

 

NOTE: I'm not trying to offend anyone here, just trying to get this done.

[BufordT 371]

So can we pick for Polecat yet? 31 hours and counting...

 

NOTE: I'm not trying to offend anyone here, just trying to get this done.

Hopefully nothing tragic has happened and he/she is ok. But, lets get this thing rollin' again.

 

Maybe someone else following along can substitute for him. Any volunteers?

[Matt Mueller 146]

Anyone know polecat outside of the boards and have a way of contacting him?

 

Hope everything is ok but we are gonna have to pick for him, or get a replacement, soon.

[Connorsdad 38]

I vote we give Polecatt more time. I don't know them but no reason to get in a hurry !

 

Good draft so far !

[Matt Mueller 146]

Let's give him some more time until tomorrow. There's no rush it's a mock draft in April.

 

Again I hope everything is ok...there are more important things in life than fantasy football.

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

QB: Tony Romo

RB: Jamaal Charles

RB: Darren McFadden

WR: Julio Jones

WR: Larry Fitzgerald

WR: Danny Amendola

FX: Antonio Brown

TE: Greg Olsen

K: ??

D: ??

 

Bench: Jonathan Stewart, Le'Veon Bell, Denarius Moore

 

 

some things i'd have done differently at this point but for the most part I am satisfied with this squad. Might not be the sexiest team, as the Romo / Olsen combo is not going to tighten many pants but the upside of the team as a whole is tremendous.