Doug's Big Boards - Top 175

[Mike FF Today 608]

Here we go with Version 2.0...

• Top 175 - PPR
• Top 175 - Non-PPR
• Ks & D/STs

Foster slides down to the turn, bump for Forte. I agree with both.

[DankNuggs 305]

Big jump for Cameron

[Mike FF Today 608]

A nice bump for LeSean McCoy also.

[tikigods 76]

I'm surprised Le'veon Bell hasn't fallen after having an MRI today. Was this list generated pre-game last night?

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

The points make no sense. Demarco Murray is projected at 13.9 points per game as the rb 16 in non ppr. That would have been good for the sixth best rb last year.

 

I just don't get how running backs are going to score so many points this year.

[We Tigers 71]

The points make no sense. Demarco Murray is projected at 13.9 points per game as the rb 16 in non ppr. That would have been good for the sixth best rb last year.

 

I just don't get how running backs are going to score so many points this year.

 

I think that's just a typo/error in the per game column. Murray's total projected fantasy points of 166 actually translate to just 11/game.

[The Football Guru 212]

I'm surprised Le'veon Bell hasn't fallen after having an MRI today. Was this list generated pre-game last night?

It was generated Monday night when all the information we had was that he had a mid-foot sprain and before he had the MRI on Tuesday. I will knock players down for taking injections to their back, but am not overly eager to downgrade players without having some kind of context as to how serious the injury is first. I'm reasonably certain he will fall a bit in next week's boards, assuming we don't get any glowing reports about him in the meantime.

[The Football Guru 212]

The points make no sense. Demarco Murray is projected at 13.9 points per game as the rb 16 in non ppr. That would have been good for the sixth best rb last year.

 

I just don't get how running backs are going to score so many points this year.

In 2011, 13 backs averaged 13.6. I think one can make a pretty solid argument that 14 have a pretty good shot this year, with McFadden and Murray serving as outside possibilities. There are roughly 22 RBs that could be loosely defined as their team's "main back" (I will stop short of calling all of them feature backs).

 

I have been giving a nod to D-Mac because of talent and a return to the man-blocking scheme, but that offense will be horrible and he probably needs to have his projection adjusted. Murray has a real shot if Dallas commits to the run, which I think it will.

 

 

I think that's just a typo/error in the per game column. Murray's total projected fantasy points of 166 actually translate to just 11/game.

No errors, I have him missing three games.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Ok so you see Ray Rice averaging more points than last year even with the likelihood of Bernard Pierce taking carries?

[We Tigers 71]

In 2011, 13 backs averaged 13.6. I think one can make a pretty solid argument that 14 have a pretty good shot this year, with McFadden and Murray serving as outside possibilities. There are roughly 22 RBs that could be loosely defined as their team's "main back" (I will stop short of calling all of them feature backs).

 

I have been giving a nod to D-Mac because of talent and a return to the man-blocking scheme, but that offense will be horrible and he probably needs to have his projection adjusted. Murray has a real shot if Dallas commits to the run, which I think it will.

 

No errors, I have him missing three games.

Duh, I forgot about that. That's not as easily visible on these big boards as it was in the PMA.

 

Great work overall, as usual. The expansion to 175 is really nice for those of us playing in 14-team leagues.

[The Football Guru 212]

Thanks Tigers...the final boards will go 200 deep, just in case you wanted to know.

[The Football Guru 212]

Ok so you see Ray Rice averaging more points than last year even with the likelihood of Bernard Pierce taking carries?

All we have as a sample is from Week 15 on (the week after Cam Cameron was fired and Jim Caldwell replaced him):

 

Here are his non-PPR point totals (minus Week 17 and including the playoffs): 4.1, 21.8, 11.7, 19.1, 13.0 and 7.8 - good for a 12.9 average. However, that also included a Baltimore offense that still had Boldin and Pitta. I think whatever additional running-game work Rice loses to Pierce this year - which shouldn't be much more than he was losing at the end of last season - will be made up for in the passing game.

[tikigods 76]

Looks like Bell is done. Lisfranc break. Take him off the board.

[LSUtiger 9]

Looks like Bell is done. Lisfranc break. Take him off the board.

 

Yup. He's now squarely on my DND list in my remaining re-draft league. I'm glad I didn't land him in my previous two money league drafts.

[tikigods 76]

 

Yup. He's now squarely on my DND list in my remaining re-draft league. I'm glad I didn't land him in my previous two money league drafts.

 

Of course I have him on three Yahoo/ESPN teams I have already drafted.

 

Money league is Saturday. Some schmuck who reads fantasy mags from June will take him in the first or second round.

[The Football Guru 212]

Looks like Bell is done. Lisfranc break. Take him off the board.

This Not sure how far he'll drop, but I'm sure he'll fall at least 100 spots and could fall off the board compeletely. Lis Franc is not someone to mess around with.

[tikigods 76]

This Not sure how far he'll drop, but I'm sure he'll fall at least 100 spots and could fall off the board compeletely. Lis Franc is not someone to mess around with.

 

In your opinion, who rises out of the running back ashes for the Steelers?

[BeanTown76 0]

This Not sure how far he'll drop, but I'm sure he'll fall at least 100 spots and could fall off the board compeletely. Lis Franc is not someone to mess around with.

Will there be an incremental update done to the board before 3.0 is out to reflect the Bell injury? Thanks

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Still not buying rbs are going to score all those points.

[The Football Guru 212]

Will there be an incremental update done to the board before 3.0 is out to reflect the Bell injury? Thanks

Final Big Board will hit on Tuesday the 27th.

 

Still not buying rbs are going to score all those points.

I won't debate that. It is entirely possible that many RBs do not hit that mark and I've already downgraded D-Mac after considering the mockery of an offensive line he has in front of him now with Veldheer gone. But if 12 do hit it, don't come back at me in January and tell me how wrong I was...OK?

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Final Big Board will hit on Tuesday the 27th.

 

I won't debate that. It is entirely possible that many RBs do not hit that mark and I've already downgraded D-Mac after considering the mockery of an offensive line he has in front of him now with Veldheer gone. But if 12 do hit it, don't come back at me in January and tell me how wrong I was...OK?

I am the last person who will come back and rub their wrong predictions in their face. I am constantly wrong myself and make myself an easy target sometimes by being bold. You put a ton of time and effort into that bad ass sheet so I would be a fool to point out which predictions didn't come true.

 

The reason I brought it up is because in my keeper league I have Spiller in the ninth and Graham in the 16 th (two years ago).

 

I want sure on taking Rice or Julio at my pick as they were the highest rated at their positions and most likely to still be there. This is a non ppr league which probably favors taking Rice.

 

I was still leaning toward taking Julio as I felt it was a bit safer of a pick. If Rice really does score 15+ points per game he would without a doubt be the choice to make.

 

So yeah just trying to get a grasp on how confident you are in the rb projections and especially in Rice.

[tikigods 76]

 

Jonathan Dwyer will take over the bulk of the running game through the rest of the preseason (and maybe the regular season) with the injuries to Bell, Isaac Redman and LaRod Stephens-Howling.

 

-ESPN Insider

[SuperSteelers 1]

Browns defense legit this year? I've seen them ranked as low as mid-teens. I myself thought they were better than a third of the league. What are people thinking?

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Browns defense legit this year? I've seen them ranked as low as mid-teens. I myself thought they were better than a third of the league. What are people thinking?

As a matchup defense they should be ok. As an every week defense I wouldn't put my hopes on them.

[Jekyl1 0]

I'm not sure I understand these rankings. I'm looking at the PPR rankings. I can't figure out what column the order is based on.

For example, Matt Forte and LeSean McCoy. Forte's Value, PTs per game, and Fpts are all higher than McCoy's. So why is McCoy ranked higher (as well as Richardson)? Am I missing something?

It seems like if you have an overall stat like Value, then the list should be in descending order of that column. I understand that different positions may interfere with that a bit, but if we are strictly looking at one position, how can a player with higher value in all categories possibly be ranked lower?

Thanks!

[The Football Guru 212]

I'm not sure I understand these rankings. I'm looking at the PPR rankings. I can't figure out what column the order is based on.

For example, Matt Forte and LeSean McCoy. Forte's Value, PTs per game, and Fpts are all higher than McCoy's. So why is McCoy ranked higher (as well as Richardson)? Am I missing something?

It seems like if you have an overall stat like Value, then the list should be in descending order of that column. I understand that different positions may interfere with that a bit, but if we are strictly looking at one position, how can a player with higher value in all categories possibly be ranked lower?

Thanks!

Please refer to my intro:

 

Beyond using “value” to ease the process of setting up a draft board, analyzing the playoff matchups and common sense has to enter into the conversation as well. A perfect example of the latter is Calvin Johnson, whose PPR value should make him the top player on my board. While Johnson certainly brings a huge advantage to his fantasy teams almost every week, no number cannot account for the economic principle of “opportunity cost” – the loss of potential gain from other alternatives when one alternative is chosen – in real-time when owners pass on an elite running back to draft Johnson. A simple number value also cannot account for the drastic falloff in value at running back after the established top options are drafted, usually by the end of the first round or early in the second. Smart drafting also involves supply versus demand. Every year, there are not nearly enough quality running backs to occupy 24 starting spots in 12-team leagues, but there are usually at least 36 receivers around the league that are worthy fantasy starters.

 

Before I get to the boards, I would like to remind readers about a few key points about the Big Boards:

 

1) My method of evaluating fantasy players relies heavily on projected consistency and matchups, not overall fantasy point total projections. All too often, fantasy owners and even the so-called "experts" get hung up by the final numbers. Don't get me wrong, I want all my players to have 300+ points at the end of the season. But as the old saying goes, "It's not about the destination, it's about the journey"; if my RB1 gives me seven spectacular performances along with six duds during the regular season, there's a fairly decent chance I may end up 7-6. I don’t want that and neither should you.

 

2) I will push a player down my board if feel he is a health risk or if I simply don’t/can’t trust him. I will put more stock into this area in 2013 than I ever have. If you take the time to break down each position I provide below, you will notice that I don’t follow the point totals or averages to a tee. (Think of the average and value I provide for each player as a starting point for my rankings.) Outside of trust issues, I will push a player down my board – despite a higher average or overall point total – if I believe he will simply be less consistent throughout the season or if his playoff schedule appears treacherous.

[The Football Guru 212]

As a matchup defense they should be ok. As an every week defense I wouldn't put my hopes on them.

I think they will be helped by what should be weaker offenses in Baltimore and Pittsburgh, but with their blitz-heavy defense (and Travis Benjamin returning punts), they have a good recipe to be pretty useful.

[DrG 94]

"Consistency and matchups"

With my first 5-6 picks I am looking for consistent starters. I may lose a couple of games when somebody has a few players blow up with big yardage multi-touchdown games, but on the whole, this core approach pays off for me over the course of the season. I like Matt Forte - I just think he is a guy who will have some big games, but also a couple of more duds than McCoy ... over the course of the season. For this reason I like Doug's approach as it gives me some extra considerations to consider especially in the early rounds.