Antonio Brown vs Joe Haden. Wildly varying rankings.

[dpbuddha 9]

Antonio Brown is at the top of the NFL in receptions, #5 in yards and has been very consistent every week with his targets. He gets opportunities. This week Emmanuel Sanders is banged up and might not go, so it sounds like the Steelers will plug in the young guy (name escapes me right now) and maybe in a normal week that would even boost Brown's targets, but this week he's up against Joe Haden. It seems that Haden is the new Revis and scares fantasy owners away from starting the top WR going up against Cleveland. I haven't looked into what Haden has given up this season, but the "experts" seem to be all over the place with their predicitons this week for how to rank Antonio Brown.

I have seen rankings for Antonio Brown ranging from #12 to #36. That seems like a pretty extreme gap in opinions. I will be starting Josh Gordon and I'm planning on starting Antonio Brown, but most rankings are showing Amendola ahead of Brown...it's making me nervous. Where should Antonio Brown really be ranked this week?

[Filthy Fernadez 2,696]

I have him in a PPR and I'm rolling with him (I have AJ Green on bye too). I figure Big Ben isn't too bright and will still wing it Brown's way often enough in a PPR to make him a decent WR2 play.

[Calvinjohnsonjesuschrist 0]

Am playing Reuben Randle over him

[browns16-0 30]

Probably gonna roll with Lacy or Hilton over him in the flex. It sounds like an easy choice, but dude has been a ppr beast all season.

[H-man 12]

I'm glad you brought this up, I'm firing up Keenan Allen over him b/c of this. Browns are #1 against opposing wideouts b/c of Haden, look at past #1 receivers' numbers against the shadow shutdown, if you have a WR2 option, consider it over breakout player Antonio Brown.

[kilroy69 1,273]

you never bench your studs. He is the best shadow corner in the game and is coming off a game where he was a joehaden blanket for aj green. However brown and big ben are on the same page and its hard to cover someone who gets hit in stride.

[Challenger 72]

You will regret starting him if you in a must win

[Windstan 7]

I'm probably going to play him in my PPR league. He gets a lot of WR screen passes and short slants, so I feel like he's going to get his catches. If I had him in a standard league though, he'd be on my bench. I think he'll be lucky to top 75 yards and I doubt he finds the end zone this week.

[IGotWorms 4,063]

I'm starting him in PPR. Don't have any good options on my bench and I just can't pull him from the lineup with how he's been performing all year. And I figure the Steelers have GOT to be in creative in getting him the ball. I may regret it but steady as she goes mate.

[Shakey210 10]

Sanders may end up being the better play this week, unfortunately.

[H-man 12]

Fire up the Jerricho Crotchrottery.

[giraldi02 476]

Must. Start.

[Breesman32 11]

This isnt a good week for him and neither is it for Gordon! Megatron is way different, but Gordon got doubled by Smith and Webb, whoever are the packers cb, and Leon Hall(or Jones). His other corners are nowhere near intimidating. Taylor has stopped almost every #1 except Megatron, Gronk And Amendola(Gronk isnt a wr). And those 2 tds were overseas to go with 40 yards for Jennings. I'm starting Allen over Gordon because KC's one weakness is against the deep pass if a qb is able to throw it. If Pittsburgh or Cleveland were to win in a blowout then the receiver on the losing teams has the chance to rack up yardage and a big td when defenses force them to pass. hate saying it but Campbell isnt even passing much and Big Ben definitely likes Brown as he gives Bell the ball at the wrong times.

[Antiramie 50]

I think 5/90/0 is about his ceiling vs Haden.

[GreenTD 56]

I have AJ Green & Antonio Brown in a standard league. Brown's 2 TD & 147 yards saved my game last week since AJ got shutout by Haden.

 

With AJ on a bye & a shallow bench/undroppable players due to week 12 byes (L. Bell, AJ Green, Cam Newton, SEA Def, Chris Johnson) I'm kinda forced to start Brown & hope for the best.

 

My opponent has worse bye week issues so it's a chance I'm willing to take.

[Texas10 15]

I'm in the same boat, I saw the rankings and was kind of taken back. I had no idea Haden has been doing that to #1's. My 2 options if I bench Brown are Colston and newly acquired Burleson. Colston is facing Atlanta so I'm thinking of starting him over Brown but it's tough to sit Brown right now...

[GreenTD 56]

I'm in the same boat, I saw the rankings and was kind of taken back. I had no idea Haden has been doing that to #1's. My 2 options if I bench Brown are Colston and newly acquired Burleson. Colston is facing Atlanta so I'm thinking of starting him over Brown but it's tough to sit Brown right now...

My opponent has Colston so I hope he chits the bed.

 

But if I had Colston & Brown, I'd probably go with Colston. Haden at home is scary but I understand your sentiment that it's tough to sit Brown at this point.

[Dueces Will Be Wild 15]

I've got to start 2 between Cruz, Brown and Gordon in PPR. I'm definitely going to start Cruz. Trying to decide between Brown and Gordon and I keep switching back and forth between the two. Right now I'm leaning towards Brown.

[5Year1 23]

Haden has done a pretty good job on A J Green the last couple of years, so I think the "don't bench your studs" rule needs to be reconsidered in cases like this.

I think it depends on what alternatives you have. I have him on two teams and he will be on the bench this week because I have strong WRs on those teams. #1 Andre Johnson and Nelson are at WR, Gordon in the flex, #2 Nelson and Gordon with D Thomas of Denver at the flex.

[posty 2,856]

In a non-PPR, 10 team partial keeper, I have Dez, Antonio Brown, Josh Gordon, Hopkins and Torrey Smith...

 

Starting two, I am rolling with Gordon and Dez over Brown...

[posty 2,856]

Here is an average of some available rankings...

 

http://fantasyrundown.com/Weekly__WR_Rankings_2.html

[H-man 12]

Not that anyone gives a , but what I like to do is first do my own research and gut check, then check the 10 or so experts I trust across 3 or so different sites (yahoo, rotoworld, profootball focus, and this new guy who's supposed to be good called "tags" something or other) and if two or three of them has my guy I picked ahead of the other guy (in this case Allen over Brown) then I will go with that choice. If NONE of them has my guy over the other guy, then I'll just go with the consensus. This has worked well. They're smarter than us, they have more access to information than us (secondhand as well as firsthand directly interviewing players or getting inside info from reporters actually watching these players in practice).

 

Competitive ball sports (ie football, soccer, baseball) have MUCH more variance in terms of performance, and therefore outcomes, than individual sports (ie sprinting, competitive weightlifting, cycling) in part because the mental aspect is much more evolved/intellectual than a repetitive actually primal action like running or swimming, as well as the direct matchup nature of ball sports. (Think about it, a wide receiver's 40 times would all be very close and easy to predict, whereas his game stats will vary much more widely depending on what corner he's matched up against, how his teammates around him are playing, his injury status, and even his mental mindset affecting his motivation). So that is why the football "experts" (as many people like to put in quotes) cannot possibly be right every time, it's all about making the right decisions based on as much relevant information as possible.

[Shakey210 10]

I'm in the same boat, I saw the rankings and was kind of taken back. I had no idea Haden has been doing that to #1's. My 2 options if I bench Brown are Colston and newly acquired Burleson. Colston is facing Atlanta so I'm thinking of starting him over Brown but it's tough to sit Brown right now...

I would start Colston over Brown.

[Filthy Fernadez 2,696]

AJ Green is a better receiver than Antonio Brown and was shut down; that is true. You must take into account the QB throwing it as well.

 

Ben R. > A. Dalton Dalton threw 2 Picks to Hayden's side then pretty much quit throwing it to that side. Ben most likely won't be scared off throwing it to Brown. He'll still see a decent amount of targets and in a PPR should be fine; just don't EXPECT monster numbers from him.

[murf74 461]

AB is phenomenal at route running and doesn't rely on straight line speed or size for his receptions and Ben doesn't just not throw to a guy just cause of CB unlike a lot of chicken shiit QBs out there. HIs after the catch skills are as good as anyone in the game. Also they move him all over the field and doesn't just set up in on spot

[Breesman32 11]

Not that anyone gives a ######, but what I like to do is first do my own research and gut check, then check the 10 or so experts I trust across 3 or so different sites (yahoo, rotoworld, profootball focus, and this new guy who's supposed to be good called "tags" something or other) and if two or three of them has my guy I picked ahead of the other guy (in this case Allen over Brown) then I will go with that choice. If NONE of them has my guy over the other guy, then I'll just go with the consensus. This has worked well. They're smarter than us, they have more access to information than us (secondhand as well as firsthand directly interviewing players or getting inside info from reporters actually watching these players in practice).

 

Competitive ball sports (ie football, soccer, baseball) have MUCH more variance in terms of performance, and therefore outcomes, than individual sports (ie sprinting, competitive weightlifting, cycling) in part because the mental aspect is much more evolved/intellectual than a repetitive actually primal action like running or swimming, as well as the direct matchup nature of ball sports. (Think about it, a wide receiver's 40 times would all be very close and easy to predict, whereas his game stats will vary much more widely depending on what corner he's matched up against, how his teammates around him are playing, his injury status, and even his mental mindset affecting his motivation). So that is why the football "experts" (as many people like to put in quotes) cannot possibly be right every time, it's all about making the right decisions based on as much relevant information as possible.

This in interesting. Fabiano, Berry are awful however.

[Texas10 15]

Well that sucked, effing Colston...

[giraldi02 476]

AJ Green is a better receiver than Antonio Brown and was shut down; that is true. You must take into account the QB throwing it as well.

 

Ben R. > A. Dalton Dalton threw 2 Picks to Hayden's side then pretty much quit throwing it to that side. Ben most likely won't be scared off throwing it to Brown. He'll still see a decent amount of targets and in a PPR should be fine; just don't EXPECT monster numbers from him.

The Bengals only had 9 passing attempts though in the entire 2nd half. Sometimes stats are a bit misleading. Yes Haden has had a bunch of success this season against opposing number one receivers, but if the Bengals were in a close game or trailing, I'd be led to believe that AJ Green would've been involved in the game plan for the 2nd half.

 

The other thing to take into consideration is that Antonio Brown lines up in various positions and is active in bubble screens, reverses, slants, etc. While I don't think Brown is going to have the success he's had all year, this is a guy that has not had less than 7 targets in any game all season, is averaging a little over 10 targets a game, and is on pace to break the franchise records in receptions and receiving yardage. I wouldn't dare bench him

[H-man 12]

This in interesting. Fabiano, Berry are awful however.

I agree.

[SweetnessWJP 0]

Completely foolish to base a players production on what players before have done vs a CB.

 

Not saying Brown will go out and post a 7/130 line, but you CANNOT compare Brown to AJ Green. The Steelers use motion and quick hitting bunch formations to get Brown the ball. AJ Green does not play that way, so to try and compare Brown to any WR that has faced Haden does no good for you.

 

It comes down to if you think the Steelers will throw 40 times -- if they do, odds are Brown gets 5-7 catches. If you think it'll be a low scoring slugfest and you have good options at WR, use someone else.

[H-man 12]

I think it's important to note as well than Brown has pretty low upside this week. So if I was going up against a strong competitor, I'd roll the dice with more of a boom or bust WR2 type. If I was confident in my matchup I'd go with Brown, esp in a PPR b/c I do think ppl are right that he is more of a possession receiver than A.J. Green. I am not in a PPR and have already locked up a playoff spot so I'm gonna roll the dice w/ Keenan Allen as I would in a playoff game.

[swirvenirvin 25]

This isnt a good week for him and neither is it for Gordon! Megatron is way different, but Gordon got doubled by Smith and Webb, whoever are the packers cb, and Leon Hall(or Jones). His other corners are nowhere near intimidating. Taylor has stopped almost every #1 except Megatron, Gronk And Amendola(Gronk isnt a wr). And those 2 tds were overseas to go with 40 yards for Jennings. I'm starting Allen over Gordon because KC's one weakness is against the deep pass if a qb is able to throw it. If Pittsburgh or Cleveland were to win in a blowout then the receiver on the losing teams has the chance to rack up yardage and a big td when defenses force them to pass. hate saying it but Campbell isnt even passing much and Big Ben definitely likes Brown as he gives Bell the ball at the wrong times.

huh? Taylor has gotten light up pretty much all year. He ranks as one of the worst CB's in the league

[H-man 12]

huh? Taylor has gotten light up pretty much all year. He ranks as one of the worst CB's in the league

I agree. Ike Taylor perception (shutdown) no longer matches reality (above average). There's a new breed of younger emerging shutdown corners while the older guys, Ike Taylor are starting to wither akin to Nnamdi A. There was also a really good segment I heard the other day as to why many teams DONT have their top or even elite corners shadow opposing wideouts. It is VERY taxing on the defense as a whole when a shutdown corner does this mainly b/c a LCB isn't used to playing RCB an has to do the opposite of everything, and slot requires a whole host of different skills. Also, when you had Revis moving around the formation (lcb, rcb, slot) that requires other DBs as well to be comfortable playing multiple different positions in the secondary, which Cromartie WAS able to do, but most teams just have their top CB play on the right side since that is where the majority of passes go b/c it is away from the QBs blindside. Im glad this head-scratching question was finally answered and explained in a podcast yesterday. Anyone want likes to the podcast? Very informative.

[Texas10 15]

This is why you never bench your studs....

 

Started Colston over Brown. Also have Burleson on the bench.

[epinindy 0]

I started Fitz and Andre over him today....big mistake..Andre has nothing at the half.

[tabris 1]

Never bench your studs.

[swirvenirvin 25]

I agree. Ike Taylor perception (shutdown) no longer matches reality (above average). There's a new breed of younger emerging shutdown corners while the older guys, Ike Taylor are starting to wither akin to Nnamdi A. There was also a really good segment I heard the other day as to why many teams DONT have their top or even elite corners shadow opposing wideouts. It is VERY taxing on the defense as a whole when a shutdown corner does this mainly b/c a LCB isn't used to playing RCB an has to do the opposite of everything, and slot requires a whole host of different skills. Also, when you had Revis moving around the formation (lcb, rcb, slot) that requires other DBs as well to be comfortable playing multiple different positions in the secondary, which Cromartie WAS able to do, but most teams just have their top CB play on the right side since that is where the majority of passes go b/c it is away from the QBs blindside. Im glad this head-scratching question was finally answered and explained in a podcast yesterday. Anyone want likes to the podcast? Very informative.

exactly and ike got lit up vs Gordon, and will vs Smith this week too