Mike FF Today 722 Posted June 2, 2014 Doug is doing double-duty today. Dynasty Rankings have been updated with commentary on select players. Love Nick Foles and Giovani Bernard in the top ten at their respective positions. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Frozenbeernuts 2,227 Posted June 2, 2014 I think you have Foles too low. I don't understand how you can have Stafford 4 spots ahead of Foles when Stafford has been unspectacular since he threw 42 tds. Last year was better, but still he just doesn't seem to have that elite ability. Demaryius Thomas 2nd is also too high imo. I love the guy and this year he will be a beast, but Peyton could retire and leave him with Osweiler as the QB. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Football Guru 222 Posted June 3, 2014 I think you have Foles too low. I don't understand how you can have Stafford 4 spots ahead of Foles when Stafford has been unspectacular since he threw 42 tds. Last year was better, but still he just doesn't seem to have that elite ability. Demaryius Thomas 2nd is also too high imo. I love the guy and this year he will be a beast, but Peyton could retire and leave him with Osweiler as the QB. I hear you on Foles, but he's about nine months removed from losing a QB competition to Vick and lost DeSean Jackson. I hope to get a chance to rewatch his games this summer so I can get a better sense of how I really feel about him. Detroit added Golden Tate and Eric Ebron. Like I said in the comments, "no more excuses". I have a feeling Manning will play three more years. Thomas is the one WR that I don't think has any significant long-term issues (outside of when Manning will retire), so I feel good about his ranking, even if his "window' is plus/minus three years. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Vikings4ever 548 Posted June 3, 2014 Demaryius Thomas 2nd is also too high imo. I love the guy and this year he will be a beast, but Peyton could retire and leave him with Osweiler as the QB. Thomas is also a FA after this year. Does Denver pony up the big bucks? If not, will he regress closer to his pre-Peyton numbers? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Football Guru 222 Posted June 3, 2014 Thomas is also a FA after this year. Does Denver pony up the big bucks? If not, will he regress closer to his pre-Peyton numbers? I don't think there is a chance Denver lets him test the market. Not offering Decker a long-term deal was all about saving money to extend Demaryius and Julius Thomas. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Frozenbeernuts 2,227 Posted June 3, 2014 I hear you on Foles, but he's about nine months removed from losing a QB competition to Vick and lost DeSean Jackson. I hope to get a chance to rewatch his games this summer so I can get a better sense of how I really feel about him. Detroit added Golden Tate and Eric Ebron. Like I said in the comments, "no more excuses". I have a feeling Manning will play three more years. Thomas is the one WR that I don't think has any significant long-term issues (outside of when Manning will retire), so I feel good about his ranking, even if his "window' is plus/minus three years. I can see your point on Stafford and Demaryius, but I think downgrading Foles because he didn't win the job right out of camp from Vick isn't an accurate way to view the situation. Foles was leaps and bounds better than Vick. The question I would pose would be why did the coaching staff pick Vick instead of Foles, when Foles was that much better of a QB. 27 tds and 2 ints I don't think he gets credit for how awesome of a season that was. I can understand still wanting to see more out of him before he is placed into the elite catagory. I just know as a dynasty owner I would be drafting him in that top tier with confidence he would live up to those expectations. If I drafted Stafford, even with the addition of Tate and Ebron, I would still have that feeling that he could let me down. I also don't believe losing Desean was a big deal. They get Maclin back and Cooper proved to be an excellent big target. They also drafted a receiver with a lot of potential while adding one of the best receiving backs ever in the NFL. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Football Guru 222 Posted June 3, 2014 I can see your point on Stafford and Demaryius, but I think downgrading Foles because he didn't win the job right out of camp from Vick isn't an accurate way to view the situation. Foles was leaps and bounds better than Vick. The question I would pose would be why did the coaching staff pick Vick instead of Foles, when Foles was that much better of a QB. 27 tds and 2 ints I don't think he gets credit for how awesome of a season that was. I can understand still wanting to see more out of him before he is placed into the elite catagory. I just know as a dynasty owner I would be drafting him in that top tier with confidence he would live up to those expectations. If I drafted Stafford, even with the addition of Tate and Ebron, I would still have that feeling that he could let me down. I also don't believe losing Desean was a big deal. They get Maclin back and Cooper proved to be an excellent big target. They also drafted a receiver with a lot of potential while adding one of the best receiving backs ever in the NFL. Again, I hear ya. I'm not knocking Foles b/c he lost the QB competition with Vick, I'm just saying that one season - no matter how magical - isn't enough for me to get all excited about a quarterback unless I can justify it with my own eyes. I haven't been able to do that yet by reviewing his games (but I will). I wasn't overly impressed by him in college and don't think one year with Chip Kelly turned him into the next great thing. Maclin is an injury risk and Cooper is a JAG (just another guy) in my opinion, so although I like that the Eagles added Jordan Matthews, I'm not ready to buy that Foles will pick right back up where he left off. Perhaps another thing working against Foles in my mind are QBs like Brian Griese (2000) and Josh Freeman (2010), who essentially stunk up the joint the following season after posting four and six INTs, respectively, after their "breakout" seasons. Yes, LeSean McCoy makes life a lot easier for him, but I also don't think we should be surprised if Foles' TD-to-INT ratio is more like 25:15 this season. Again, I'll watch all 16 games of Foles before the next update and be happy to move him up the board if I am satisfied with what I see. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WhiteWonder 2,718 Posted June 3, 2014 the QB rankings take age too much into consideration for my liking. one of my pet peeves w/ dynasty is when age is factored in too much. as long as a player still has a 3-4 year window, i like to rank them about where they would be in redraft. dynasty leagues feature too many trades to think you'd be holding a player for 7-8 years anyway. plus, QB is so deep that even if you roll with one of the Manning/Brees/Brady trio, you'll likely have found the next big thing on your bench before they retire. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Football Guru 222 Posted June 3, 2014 the QB rankings take age too much into consideration for my liking. one of my pet peeves w/ dynasty is when age is factored in too much. as long as a player still has a 3-4 year window, i like to rank them about where they would be in redraft. dynasty leagues feature too many trades to think you'd be holding a player for 7-8 years anyway. plus, QB is so deep that even if you roll with one of the Manning/Brees/Brady trio, you'll likely have found the next big thing on your bench before they retire. I'd be interested to hear who you are referring to here...Peyton? I think he will play three more years max, meaning he will retire after turning 40. I'm not exactly sure that is enough time to find the "next big thing", especially when the draft has yielded players not worthy of going No. 1 overall over the last two seasons. The Pats are running more often and I think that is something they will continue to do more often going forward. Outside of those two, I think the only other player pushing the age limit is Romo, who is coming off two back surgeries. I have old man Brees at No. 5, so I'm not against all older QBs. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WhiteWonder 2,718 Posted June 4, 2014 I'd be interested to hear who you are referring to here...Peyton? I think he will play three more years max, meaning he will retire after turning 40. I'm not exactly sure that is enough time to find the "next big thing", especially when the draft has yielded players not worthy of going No. 1 overall over the last two seasons. The Pats are running more often and I think that is something they will continue to do more often going forward. Outside of those two, I think the only other player pushing the age limit is Romo, who is coming off two back surgeries. I have old man Brees at No. 5, so I'm not against all older QBs. i was more referring to ranking Luck #1 overall and Stafford #3. In dynasty I still have these guys below Peyton and Brees based on my feeling that each of those guys will give you 3 more seasons of tip top production in high level offenses. Dynasty owners, by and large, like to trade. Deals are offered and made year round. You can always find a deal to get younger when needed. Someone will be willing to trade for Brees 2 years from now when they feel they need that QB production to get them over the hump. Also with so much trading, its hard to think you would draft a guy like Luck and actually hold him for the next 10 years, so why factor in age that much? As for how quickly you can find the next big thing, you have Nick Foles ranked 7th and he is a prime example. He was on taxi squads and benches to start last season. Same can probably be said for Kaepernick and Wilson the year before and both are now in your top 10... More in regards to Stafford.... he just hasn't put it together. He has had weapons and volume but can't seem to reach the next level. I own him in a dynasty league but no way I would consider him the #3 ranked Qb. . Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Football Guru 222 Posted June 4, 2014 i was more referring to ranking Luck #1 overall and Stafford #3. In dynasty I still have these guys below Peyton and Brees based on my feeling that each of those guys will give you 3 more seasons of tip top production in high level offenses. Dynasty owners, by and large, like to trade. Deals are offered and made year round. You can always find a deal to get younger when needed. Someone will be willing to trade for Brees 2 years from now when they feel they need that QB production to get them over the hump. Also with so much trading, its hard to think you would draft a guy like Luck and actually hold him for the next 10 years, so why factor in age that much? As for how quickly you can find the next big thing, you have Nick Foles ranked 7th and he is a prime example. He was on taxi squads and benches to start last season. Same can probably be said for Kaepernick and Wilson the year before and both are now in your top 10... More in regards to Stafford.... he just hasn't put it together. He has had weapons and volume but can't seem to reach the next level. I own him in a dynasty league but no way I would consider him the #3 ranked Qb. . Solid points. I appreciate the solid debate by all of you so far, so keep it coming. WhiteWonder: Maybe it will help you to know that my "style" as a dynasty owner is to trade when I know I have a weakness to address (or angling to move up in the rookie draft) or when I see a buy-low/sell-high opportunity. I do not trade just to trade. My biggest regret from the startup experts' dynasty league I did during the summer of 2012 was not selecting Luck in the sixth round when I had a chance to get him then. I can pretty much assure you that if I had him now, I would not deal him for roughly the next 8-10 years (barring a chronic injury down the road) because he is essentially the perfect dynasty QB. I'm trying to incorporate talent into the rankings as much - if not more - than age, which partially explains why Stafford is so high. You say he has had weapons; he's had Calvin Johnson and merry-go-around at the other receiver spot. Brandon Pettigrew hasn't been good in years and Reggie Bush only joined the team last year. I would argue with the assertion that he's had more than one VERY good weapon for most of his career. With Stafford, I'm also trying to factor in the improved supporting cast AND the notion that the new coaching staff will help him polish up his fundamentals. The deal with Stafford is that just because he has failed to live up to expectations doesn't mean he hasn't been good in fantasy. I know how he brutal he was to finish 2013, but based simply on fantasy points per game last year, he was fourth in my scoring system - in what was considered a bad year for him. That's not going to get worse now that he has Golden Tate and Eric Ebron long-term. You also cited Foles. As I expressed earlier in the thread, I have sincere doubts that he is the "next big thing". Kaep and Wilson are capable of being "big things" in dynasty, but have their run-heavy offensive play-callers working against them with no reason that is going to change - at least in the short term. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WhiteWonder 2,718 Posted June 4, 2014 Solid points. I appreciate the solid debate by all of you so far, so keep it coming. WhiteWonder: Maybe it will help you to know that my "style" as a dynasty owner is to trade when I know I have a weakness to address (or angling to move up in the rookie draft) or when I see a buy-low/sell-high opportunity. I do not trade just to trade. My biggest regret from the startup experts' dynasty league I did during the summer of 2012 was not selecting Luck in the sixth round when I had a chance to get him then. I can pretty much assure you that if I had him now, I would not deal him for roughly the next 8-10 years (barring a chronic injury down the road) because he is essentially the perfect dynasty QB. I'm trying to incorporate talent into the rankings as much - if not more - than age, which partially explains why Stafford is so high. You say he has had weapons; he's had Calvin Johnson and merry-go-around at the other receiver spot. Brandon Pettigrew hasn't been good in years and Reggie Bush only joined the team last year. I would argue with the assertion that he's had more than one VERY good weapon for most of his career. With Stafford, I'm also trying to factor in the improved supporting cast AND the notion that the new coaching staff will help him polish up his fundamentals. The deal with Stafford is that just because he has failed to live up to expectations doesn't mean he hasn't been good in fantasy. I know how he brutal he was to finish 2013, but based simply on fantasy points per game last year, he was fourth in my scoring system - in what was considered a bad year for him. That's not going to get worse now that he has Golden Tate and Eric Ebron long-term. You also cited Foles. As I expressed earlier in the thread, I have sincere doubts that he is the "next big thing". Kaep and Wilson are capable of being "big things" in dynasty, but have their run-heavy offensive play-callers working against them with no reason that is going to change - at least in the short term. 'next big thing' may be the wrong term to use. It maybe implies being the next Peyton Manning. I simply mean a good starting dynasty QB. Based on the fact you have him ranked in the top 10, Im assuming you view them as such. Foles, Kaepernick, Wilson.... all really good examples of guys who were drafted not with the first few picks in their respective rookie fantasy drafts, were held on benches or taxi's and now make quality fantasy starters. Many teams out there likely have those guys playing behind a Manning or Brees..... if they have not been traded away yet. Personal strategy is definitely a factor. If a person doesn't trade much at all, maybe he intends to keep a QB like luck for 8+ seasons. That still likely wouldn't cause me to rank him 1st. Some dynasty owners do trade just to trade because they are junkies but even without those types of owners, Dynasties are set up to promote trading... team needs, buy low / sell high, just as you stated.... There will almost always be a buyer for a Peyton type asset, even on his last legs. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kopy 563 Posted June 4, 2014 This is a pretty good you guys got going on here with this QB debate. It actually reminds me of when the Colts let Manning go. The same can be said for dynasty leagues. And really just the QB position. At wr, we can always seem to find quality guys, especially in ppr leagues. Rb has been down graded. TE, you never really know what you got, when you'll get it, or for how long. But QB is still the top dog. Would you want Peyton Manning. A top 5 QB for 2, maybe 3 years? Or Andrew Luck who looks like a minimum top 10 for the next 10 years? Then you can even put situation with age. Like Stafford. He's still a pretty young kid. And it looks like he's gonna throw until his arm falls off with what their doing in Detroit. They're all good answers. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Frozenbeernuts 2,227 Posted June 4, 2014 With someone like Peyton, it is a risk not knowing how many more years he will play. I definitely downgrade him if I think a few QBs will be comperable this year and are younger. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Matt Mueller 146 Posted June 5, 2014 Real good conversation here. Regarding Foles I think he's more situation over talent but it's a great situation. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WhiteWonder 2,718 Posted June 5, 2014 Totally agree with you mulls regarding Foles but the larger point is that I thin finding an excellent fantasy qb while riding out the older stud is more than do able these days. I can come around a bit on luck. It's not my personal opinion but if you believe he will have Peyton esque years and u don't trade very much... Can't get on board with Stafford at 3 though Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Frozenbeernuts 2,227 Posted June 5, 2014 No Stafford at 3 I can't get on board with either. I think Tate is overrated and the Lions will still be lacking at talented receiving options beyond Megatron. I don't know how much Stafford yall have watched, but I had him in a keeper league for 2 years. The year he threw 42 tds was great, but I did notice a part of his game that seemed to be lacking a bit. The production was so good though that I really didn't think it was much of a concern. He bounced back from a down year with last year's overall performance, but the thing that drives me nuts about him is he doesn't seem to have much touch on the ball. He has a cannon for an arm and uses it as such on most passes. It looks to me he could take a little off his fast ball to use more finesse. The coaches have to see it too and if it hasn't changed up to this point, I don't think it is going to change. I like Staff as a QB, just not #3 overall. I want a more consistent passer at that point. No way I pass up Brees for him. I wouldn't pass up Foles either but that scenario is a lot more debatable from what I am hearing on here. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Football Guru 222 Posted June 5, 2014 No Stafford at 3 I can't get on board with either. I think Tate is overrated and the Lions will still be lacking at talented receiving options beyond Megatron. I don't know how much Stafford yall have watched, but I had him in a keeper league for 2 years. The year he threw 42 tds was great, but I did notice a part of his game that seemed to be lacking a bit. The production was so good though that I really didn't think it was much of a concern. He bounced back from a down year with last year's overall performance, but the thing that drives me nuts about him is he doesn't seem to have much touch on the ball. He has a cannon for an arm and uses it as such on most passes. It looks to me he could take a little off his fast ball to use more finesse. The coaches have to see it too and if it hasn't changed up to this point, I don't think it is going to change. I like Staff as a QB, just not #3 overall. I want a more consistent passer at that point. No way I pass up Brees for him. I wouldn't pass up Foles either but that scenario is a lot more debatable from what I am hearing on here. Gentlemen, there is no doubt that Stafford has work to do, I recognize that. I think the new coaching staff will help him with some of the finer points of his game (taking something off his fastball being a key one). I'm not saying that Caldwell/Lombardi will undoubtedly get through to Stafford where Schwartz/Linehan didn't, but quarterbacks evolve over time and I think Stafford is smart enough to realize "his way" isn't leading to much consistency or many playoff runs. I will differ on the addition of Tate, who I think is highly underrated. He may not see a huge bump in last year's numbers in 2014, but having that production opposite Calvin is going to help a lot. Getting Ebron also should free up the middle of the field. The defense isn't getting much better in Detroit, so volume should not be a concern either. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Frozenbeernuts 2,227 Posted June 5, 2014 Gentlemen, there is no doubt that Stafford has work to do, I recognize that. I think the new coaching staff will help him with some of the finer points of his game (taking something off his fastball being a key one). I'm not saying that Caldwell/Lombardi will undoubtedly get through to Stafford where Schwartz/Linehan didn't, but quarterbacks evolve over time and I think Stafford is smart enough to realize "his way" isn't leading to much consistency or many playoff runs. I will differ on the addition of Tate, who I think is highly underrated. He may not see a huge bump in last year's numbers in 2014, but having that production opposite Calvin is going to help a lot. Getting Ebron also should free up the middle of the field. The defense isn't getting much better in Detroit, so volume should not be a concern either. I will give you that Tate will be better than what they have had at the WR2 position for the past few years, but I still think he is definitely overrated. I think Doug Baldwin could do what Tate does and for a lot less money. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Football Guru 222 Posted June 5, 2014 I will give you that Tate will be better than what they have had at the WR2 position for the past few years, but I still think he is definitely overrated. I think Doug Baldwin could do what Tate does and for a lot less money. I agree Baldwin can probably do what Tate can do, but that is more of a reflection on Baldwin IMO than it is on Tate. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MTSkiBum 1,620 Posted June 5, 2014 Nobody values stevie johnson that low. He was a buy low of mine in dynasty leagues this year and I have been unable to acquire him thus far. His value is much closer to your tier 5 group. Stevie Johnson is 27(28 at season start) and he has spent 4 seasons as a starter. Three of his four seasons he has been a starter he has gone over 1000 yards. I think you have him vastly under rated. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Football Guru 222 Posted June 6, 2014 Nobody values stevie johnson that low. He was a buy low of mine in dynasty leagues this year and I have been unable to acquire him thus far. His value is much closer to your tier 5 group. Stevie Johnson is 27(28 at season start) and he has spent 4 seasons as a starter. Three of his four seasons he has been a starter he has gone over 1000 yards. I think you have him vastly under rated. You're going to have to make a case for him in his new location b/c I can't beyond the fact that Crabtree is scheduled to be a free agent in 2015. San Fran already has trouble keeping Vernon Davis involved as much as it should and struggles to keep both Crabtree and Boldin fantasy relevant at the same time. Stevie is behind both of them. Do you want to bet the Niners throw more this year? I'm not making that bet. Does his talent suggest he should be higher? Yes, but I just don't see where his fantasy upside is with the Niners. I also did two quick searches just to see where he was listed in other dynasty rankings: one listed him at 63 while the other had him at 87. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Football Guru 222 Posted June 7, 2014 Here's a piece on Foles I found interesting: https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/2293/why-nick-foles-isn-t-a-sure-thing-for-the-philadelphia-eagles Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Vikings4ever 548 Posted June 7, 2014 Here's a piece on Foles I found interesting: https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/2293/why-nick-foles-isn-t-a-sure-thing-for-the-philadelphia-eagles I stopped reading after "26th in passing attempts". You mean a guy who only started 10 games isn't very high in attempts? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Frozenbeernuts 2,227 Posted June 8, 2014 I like how they make it seem like McCoy really wants Manziel instead of Foles. Even if that is true who gives a rats ass what a running back thinks about the QB position? We have coaches and GMs who are supposed to be the best in the biz at player evaluation, and even they choose guys like Gabbert, Vince Young, Jamarcus Russell, and Josh Freeman. I am open to hearing arguments that are against Foles being the real deal at QB as last year definitely could have been a fluke. I am going to own him in at least 3 leagues as my starting QB (2 dynasty 1 keeper) so I am betting against it. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Football Guru 222 Posted June 9, 2014 Please note that I just called the piece "interesting" and that I didn't say that I agreed with it one way or the other. I thought it was pertinent to the Foles' discussion we were having earlier. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Frozenbeernuts 2,227 Posted June 9, 2014 Please note that I just called the piece "interesting" and that I didn't say that I agreed with it one way or the other. I thought it was pertinent to the Foles' discussion we were having earlier. Yeah I didn't think you were endorsing it and it is interesting. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WhiteWonder 2,718 Posted June 9, 2014 I am by no means endorsing Foles other than to say he has proven thus far to be a worthy fantasy qb. A starter in 12 team leagues and someone the author has ranked in his top 10.starting off last season, Foles was a backup in your fantasy league, perhaps sitting on the taxi squad. So I was only using him as an example of the relative ease of coping with life after Peyton or Drew to the degree that you can still rank those guys in much the same way you would for redraft. You'll still get 2-3 years of title winning production from them and either trade them for a nice haul (which I've seen in three of my leagues already this offseason) or find their replacement. Again I can understand the thought on Luck if and owner believes this is the next Peyton who will put up video game stats for the next 10 seasons. However I'm a Stafford owner and I simply don't think he "gets it" Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
