Upper Class Trash 67 Posted August 25, 2014 http://www.fantasysharks.com/artman2/publish/The_Best_Strategy_to_Win.htm?page=2 I've read many articles like this, but this is short and easy enough for anyone to read. Some articles I have seen use some pretty detailed math to explain this, but no worries, this one was written for fantasy players. lol To sum it up, it gives you the breakdown on your odds of winning a league based on how you draft over the first three rounds. The article is very consistent with what I posted I found at both rtsports and myfantasyleague.com. You can form your own opinion, but this makes three reputable sites posting their stats now from last season and all show the same thing, only varying by a slight degree here and there. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
We Tigers 71 Posted August 25, 2014 Well, on the first page, the article also states that Charles was on over half of title teams. I imagine that McCoy and Peterson were on significant percentages, too. The article doesn't really explain why drafting an RB early gives you the best chance to win beyond that. What he doesn't quite get to is the idea that while half of the first 10-12 running backs taken bust, the other half don't, and a couple of them do have the epic seasons we dream about during draft time. Taking one of those running backs gives you a much, much larger hit rate than when you're taking any given back from the field. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
trucarl 1 Posted August 25, 2014 My first three picks this year were WR Demaryius Thomas - WR Dez Bryant - RB Montee Ball.. according to that article its a 1% chance to win.. but according to that article if I had taken RB Montee Ball - WR Demaryius Thomas - WR Dez Bryant my chances are now 9%, even though I have the same player outcome? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GS3K 12 Posted August 25, 2014 How did you get Ball third? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
trucarl 1 Posted August 25, 2014 How did you get Ball third? Dunno, but he fell all the way to the end of the 3rd and I had to quickly shift from the Zero RB Strategy to scoop him up Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Upper Class Trash 67 Posted August 25, 2014 Dunno, but he fell all the way to the end of the 3rd and I had to quickly shift from the Zero RB Strategy to scoop him up This must be a free yahoo league. I'm in a high dollar redraft and took Ball at the 1.08. Bryant, Thomas AND Ball went in the first round. Not sure how you got them all separate...... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Upper Class Trash 67 Posted August 25, 2014 My first three picks this year were WR Demaryius Thomas - WR Dez Bryant - RB Montee Ball.. according to that article its a 1% chance to win.. but according to that article if I had taken RB Montee Ball - WR Demaryius Thomas - WR Dez Bryant my chances are now 9%, even though I have the same player outcome? I'm not going to say this didn't occur, but I find it highly unlikely you are in a PPR League and the order went like this. Ball hasn't fallen past the 2.04 in ANY redraft league I'm in with PPR Scoring. None. D. Thomas has been going in the middle of the first in 12 team leagues. Again, either this is a standard scoring league, a free league, or a 6 team league. Any of which make it an apostate format. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
trucarl 1 Posted August 25, 2014 I'm not going to say this didn't occur, but I find it highly unlikely you are in a PPR League and the order went like this. Ball hasn't fallen past the 2.04 in ANY redraft league I'm in with PPR Scoring. None. D. Thomas has been going in the middle of the first in 12 team leagues. Again, either this is a standard scoring league, a free league, or a 6 team league. Any of which make it an apostate format. Its a 12 team PPR work league, I had the 12th pick. $30 buy in. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BTL99 34 Posted August 25, 2014 Don't agree with that article at all. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BufordT 372 Posted August 25, 2014 Pretty good article and thanks for posting. You still have to "hit" on your 1st round pick, though. I'm sure that the folks that took TRich, Spiller, Martin or RR in the 1st round struggled to make post-season play. Also, and I'm going by memory here forgive me if I'm wrong, I don't think Jamaal Charles was a bonafide top 2 pick last year. So the later you got him in the 1st round the better chance you had a getting a higher ranked player in the 2nd round. The article could've been a bit more informative if it did a 5 year study or something like that. That article, at this point, is showing a one year trend. Albeit, it is an interesting trend. I agree that taking the likes of Jimmy Graham in the 1st round is fantasy suicide. I've had good luck taking in 2nd round over the last couple of years. One title out 5 or 6 leagues where I've taken him in the 2nd... if memory serves and don't remember ever regretting the pick. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,495 Posted August 25, 2014 I fine that the chances of me winning my league goes up when I have the better players on my rosters . 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
xenophobe 1 Posted August 25, 2014 I have several issues with this type of analysis. It makes no account for scoring system, # teams, roster restrictions, etc. That aside, a statement like "The numbers are overwhelming for taking a running back to start your draft" can be a bit misleading. I have played in a lot of 12 team leagues with systems that favor RBs over QBs and WRs. In fact, this represents a very high percentage of the leagues out there. In almost every one of them every draft starts out with a huge run on RBs and remains heavily RB focused even after WRs start trickling off the board. But this statement about the numbers being overwhelming treat all RBs taken in the 1st round as equal, where we know this is completely untrue. The fact is a large number of the 31 % are simply fortunate enough to have a draft position that lands them a stud RB in round 1 and follow that up with a stud WR and not miss out on a quality QB because one can easily be had much later. If you're drafting at the end of the round you are often starting out way behind and have a lot of catching up to do in the mid rounds. I have never understood why these leagues are so popular. My favorite league has 6 pts for all TDs (passing also) which makes the top QBs extremely viable alternatives once the stud RBs are off the board, starts 3 WRs instead of 2 which increases the value of WR, and has 14 teams which helps dilute the talent available by the end of round 2 so that the teams with the first couple picks aren't always following up their stud RB with 2 more studs and the guys picking later desperately trying to play catch up. The point is, some leagues (many) have the system stacked from the start to favor early RB, but more specifically have it stacked to favor the top of the draft order because "starting your draft with a running back" means a whole different thing for the guy picking McCoy as it does the guy staring down Bell or Stacy or somebody. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Upper Class Trash 67 Posted August 25, 2014 Xenophobe - The article was written using the fantasysharks.com scoring format, which is a 12 team league, full point PPR, 4 point QB TD's, 2 RB's and 3 WR's, 1 TE, 1 k, 1 def. I don't play on their site, but do frequent the articles as some of their guys are pretty decent. I posted it as other similar scoring formats have the exact same opinion and analysis. I do agree 100% that it changes for other leagues. No doubt about it. When a QB gets 6 points for TD's, you have to take one early. I'm in a league like that now and am targeting either Brees/Rodgers in the 2nd round. Manning went off the board at the 1.04. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DrG 94 Posted August 25, 2014 We can all agree there are a number of ifs, qualifiers, assumptions, etc. written into that draft article. That said, there is a 'general truth' that you are in a better position to win if you have a solid RB1 and RB2 and have landed a Top WR. To me, the positional scarcity and RB and the use of 1-2 flex highlight the importance of leaning RB early when drafting. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
xenophobe 1 Posted August 25, 2014 UCT -Makes Sense. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
xenophobe 1 Posted August 25, 2014 DrG -Agreed. The problem though is that everyone realizes this so most drafts start out with a run on running backs, hence the guys at the top of the draft are in much better position to go this route. So the corollary is that people drafting at the top of the draft are in best position (because they can take advantage) and everyone else has to settle (over draft a RB or go some other route). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Skinny_Bastard 154 Posted August 25, 2014 It all depends on your league scoring and lineup. The last 4 champions in my league was won with a QB taken in the first 2 rounds. 2013: QB, RB, RB 2012: RB, QB, WR 2011, WR, QB, RB 2010: QB, RB, RB 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Canadianfan 76 Posted August 25, 2014 basically this article is saying that if you draft 6-12, your pretty much screwed. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
trucarl 1 Posted August 25, 2014 basically this article is saying that if you draft 6-12, your pretty much screwed. Which is funny considering ive seen research that debunks draft position has anything to do with where you finish. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
svtballa 8 Posted August 25, 2014 Article isn't that good. It doesn't take in to count keepers at all.. I have the option to keep Forte for a 6th rounder.... Gives you many more options when you have a keeper Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
murf74 461 Posted August 25, 2014 Player position has nothing to do with it, it's who you pick at each of those picks that matter. Since 80% of most first round picks are RBs doesn't it make sense that most league winners statistically would have drafted a RB in the first round? Odds are yes. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stonewall 647 Posted August 25, 2014 It's at least 50 percent post-draft in-season management. Maybe as high as 70 percent. My playoff teams rarely closely resemble my drafted team. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Skinny_Bastard 154 Posted August 26, 2014 Player position has nothing to do with it, it's who you pick at each of those picks that matter. Since 80% of most first round picks are RBs doesn't it make sense that most league winners statistically would have drafted a RB in the first round? Odds are yes. That's correct. If every team takes a QB in round 1 then the chances of teams taking a QB in round one winning it all will be 100%. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
