Pearmiser 3 Posted September 7, 2015 In my league QB Pass TD = 6 points. When you have a QB hitting 3 to 5 TD's per week, your odds of winning are so much higher. When Payton had his big year, the guy's team was on auto pilot. Luck was making up 40 to 50% of my points weekly, on my way to a title. I've done the mock draft with Luck #1 vs. AP. Seems there is decent value in round 2/3 this year and 4/5 for RB-WR if I go Luck #1. In the FF projections, luck will bring a +70 point edge over other QB's. And that is with 4 pt for passing TD. Now, if Luck doesn't produce then that's the big risk. By taking AP first it reduces the risk. Mock Results for example Luck Forsett Hopkins Stewart Brand Marshall vs. AP Forsett Hopkins Stewart B Marshall Romo Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Swampdonkey 5 Posted September 7, 2015 I think luck is less risky compared to AP, I've noticed if your playing in a very competitive league, quarterbacks first isn't so great. But if you have a few guys who don't play fantasy very much, quarterbacks first is okay because there's a lot of value left on the table Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,460 Posted September 7, 2015 6 points for passing tds makes it really hard to pass on Luck who should have a outstanding season . Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
LunaTick 29 Posted September 7, 2015 Problem with QB early is the relative value difference is not as grea. However the benefit of a Tier 1 QB, is their week to week value is consistant and high. Another Problem is, with the other positions, that your opponents will not just settle on one stud RB or WR. They will stack as much as they can, until relative values begin to dissipate and the risk reward determines its now time to get a QB. Challenge here is to not be saddled with an inconsisten QB that you cannot predict. Predictable outcome is expecting a poor performance due to a rivalry game/tough defense. Unpredictable is the QB that show when they shouldn't and doesn't when they should. If inconsistent yet relatively predictable, you will be forced to have 2 such qb and play weekly matchup. I would love to have the Tier 1 QB, but not at the price of #1. Unless all other RB and WR are that much in doubt. So if you doubt AP, why not Charles? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,460 Posted September 7, 2015 Charles is also on the doubt list , I think Davis is going to get more work this season . Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tanatastic 2,061 Posted September 7, 2015 You take Luck in rnd 1 knowing you sacrifice value. Period. But draft value and season value are completely different things. How was CJ Anderson and ODBs season value last year? Ok now how bout their draft value? Gerhart? Ball? Once the season begins, value is out the window. Take Luck, be prepared to weather endless ridicule from your league and hope your RBs pan out. If they do, you will destroy them. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Filthy Fernadez 2,696 Posted September 7, 2015 Very good points pro and con. With the protection from the refs these QBs enjoy these days, other than a flukey type injury, you KNOW Luck will produce this year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Frozenbeernuts 1,652 Posted September 7, 2015 I got lucky in my keeper league while everyone avoided Luck like the plague. After keeping L Bell and Jmath, i was able to draft Julio with the 4th pick and Luck made it back to me in the 2nd. I actually made a nice trade in that league too. I drafted Bradford as an upside backup. Then a few rounds later Matt Ryan was still there, so i took him. I was looking a little thin at receiver after julio, jmath, and jbrown, so i traded ryan for golden tate. So, even if you already have a stud qb, dont be afraid to take another good qb. You may have yourself a valuable tradeable asset. Hes the safest player by far. Well as safe as any relatively healthy acl is. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Pearmiser 3 Posted September 8, 2015 Thanks for the info. You take Luck in rnd 1 knowing you sacrifice value. Period. But draft value and season value are completely different things. How was CJ Anderson and ODBs season value last year? Ok now how bout their draft value? Gerhart? Ball? Once the season begins, value is out the window.Take Luck, be prepared to weather endless ridicule from your league and hope your RBs pan out. If they do, you will destroy them. Well stated. Once the season starts, all that matters is who is on your roster. 2 Studs and 2 Close to studs, plus good role players. I've fallen in love with building a balanced roster in the past to get beaten by 1 guy like Manning. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Pearmiser 3 Posted September 8, 2015 So I'm going with Luck. I feel that in a 6 pt TD league I will have a weekly advantage. I will then end up with Luck, L Miller, and Forsett if I go QB RB RB. Or Luck, L Miller, Mike Evans if I go QB RB WR. I will then target 2 more good RB with guys like Stewart and Ivory available in rounds 4,5,6. If Luck has the season he's projected to I'm a genius. If not, well... I'll be very "unlucky" Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Drizzay 646 Posted September 8, 2015 I went with Luck #1 overall. 12 team full point ppr and 6pt passing TD's and bonus scoring. Rodgers went #2. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Frozenbeernuts 1,652 Posted September 8, 2015 Thanks for the info. Well stated. Once the season starts, all that matters is who is on your roster. 2 Studs and 2 Close to studs, plus good role players. I've fallen in love with building a balanced roster in the past to get beaten by 1 guy like Manning. I love me a balanced roster. None of that zero whatever strategy, passing on good players just because they play a certain position. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rallo 132 Posted September 8, 2015 Went a little out of my comfort zone in a 12 team redraft, and took luck @11 followed by julio. Normally I'm with nutz... love the balanced approach in locking up rbs and wrs in the early rounds... I feel that qb early dictates that you 'hit' on a mid to late round rb. Likewise, I need ingram, stewart, dmc, joique, and knile Davis to come through big, as my rbs are ranked towards the bottom of the league. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Swampdonkey 5 Posted September 8, 2015 Absolutely rally you are absolutely right. Taking a qb first means you HAVE TO HIT on a low budget player getting lucky and having a top 5 season. Whereas if you build a balanced roster, it alone can do it Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tanatastic 2,061 Posted September 8, 2015 Went a little out of my comfort zone in a 12 team redraft, and took luck @11 followed by julio. Normally I'm with nutz... love the balanced approach in locking up rbs and wrs in the early rounds... I feel that qb early dictates that you 'hit' on a mid to late round rb. Likewise, I need ingram, stewart, dmc, joique, and knile Davis to come through big, as my rbs are ranked towards the bottom of the league. Not to bash your stable, those guys are fine. But they are an good example of guys with lower ceilings and lower upside than id like when drafting a super early qb. Im thinking more like Lat Murray, Ameer, Mathews, Hillman types. Guys with room to grow or breakout potential. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rallo 132 Posted September 8, 2015 Not to bash your stable, those guys are fine. But they are an good example of guys with lower ceilings and lower upside than id like when drafting a super early qb. Im thinking more like Lat Murray, Ameer, Mathews, Hillman types. Guys with room to grow or breakout potential. i agree with you... in fact, Murray and ameer went back to back in the 3rd/4th... Ingram fell to me, and i was planning on getting either of those guys coming back... but oh well... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rallo 132 Posted September 8, 2015 Absolutely rally you are absolutely right. Taking a qb first means you HAVE TO HIT on a low budget player getting lucky and having a top 5 season. Whereas if you build a balanced roster, it alone can do it i agree with this as i am normally the balanced roster guy. In our league, the trend the last 4 years has been the superbowl winner has always had an elite QB... I have been getting 2nd, 2nd, 4th, and 5th respecitively. Figured I would shake things up a bit this year and try the lead QB. Unfortunately, this league drafts very well... and RBs flew off the board this year. Oh well... we will see how it shakes out. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Frozenbeernuts 1,652 Posted September 8, 2015 Went a little out of my comfort zone in a 12 team redraft, and took luck @11 followed by julio. Normally I'm with nutz... love the balanced approach in locking up rbs and wrs in the early rounds... I feel that qb early dictates that you 'hit' on a mid to late round rb. Likewise, I need ingram, stewart, dmc, joique, and knile Davis to come through big, as my rbs are ranked towards the bottom of the league. I think your roster is relatively balanced. You didnt pass on the best qb in the league or arguably the best wr in the league just to take a bigger name rb. You didnt pass on a qb just because of his position. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rallo 132 Posted September 8, 2015 I think your roster is relatively balanced. You didnt pass on the best qb in the league or arguably the best wr in the league just to take a bigger name rb. You didnt pass on a qb just because of his position. very true... if this team fails it will be due to injury, or because of not taking the correct RBs in the middle rounds. I suppose you could say that with any draft. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BigMek 0 Posted September 9, 2015 I drafted 2nd in a 12 team standard league..6pts for all TD's. I took Andrew Luck and I took him with no concerns. I truly believe that you can find quality RB value in Rounds 2-4 and the WR's group is probably the deepest it's ever been to the point where you can wait a bit later to get some WR's Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Swampdonkey 5 Posted September 9, 2015 Mek, I just don't know how you can feel confident with your group of receivers. Or even any of your backs but Murray. I feel like unless you get lucky and atleast one of your new comers become a top 5 back or receiver then you lose whereas a qb late makes for more balance with the same chance to hit a lotto ticket rookie. I guess you are just hoping luck puts the other players on his back and carries you to fantasy playoffs? I'd be biting my nails and having headaches with that lineup lol Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,460 Posted September 9, 2015 Coleman Abdullah and Johnson all have upside written all over them I see no problem with that team . Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Drizzay 646 Posted September 9, 2015 I went with Luck #1 overall. 12 team full point ppr and 6pt passing TD's and bonus scoring. Rodgers went #2. For those that care, my team ended up: QB: Luck, Flacco RB: L Murray, Ivory, Gurley, Yeldon, M Jones WR: Cobb, ODB, Matthews, T Williams TE: Daniels, J Thomas K: McManus D/ST: STL, CAR QB's & RB's went fast, so somehow at picks 24/25, Cobb and ODB were still available. But I sacrificed on RB's. I got L Murray at the end of round 4 and Ivory at the end of round 6. I am sitting on Gurley and Yeldon as my backups. Not too confident there. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rallo 132 Posted September 11, 2015 I think you ended up with a good squad... Matthews dropping to round 5 really helps your team out (projected 3rd) If Murray performs, and Ivory holds on to his spot you should be solid Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
