RBs still on top

[polecatt 478]

5 weeks in and despite all the hype of the offseason the top RBs are outscoring the top WRs by a decent margin.

I don't see this changing to the point it supports the hype.

I guess the more things change the more they stay the same.

 

Thoughts on why this is?

[Brutal Brutus 182]

Cause it's only week 5 and the top ones haven't gone down to an injury yet.

[Vikes_Fan 8]

well, a durable RB should have a good crack at double digit TDs as well as a few pass yards and 1000+ on the ground. WRs don't typically get rushing yards and TDs get spread out over multiple WRs instead of concentrated on one or two guys... yeah, there's the injury risk, but RBs are typically the way to go in my opinion (PPR leagues change that up a bit).

[mgs316 14]

It's probably now more than ever a huge advantage getting one of the workhorses (johnson, elliott, bell, probably still Gurley) as the rest are crap shoots. Still better to grab a top flight WR than going RB/RB with the likes of an Ingram/Lacy pairing as an example off the top of my head. I like that WR's are productive enough across the board that you can go WR and not have to go RB. More than one way to skin a cat in today's fantasy landscape.

[shutdown 40]

The "hype" wasn't so much that the top WR's would outscore the top RB's, it was around the fact that WR's were more likely to return the value at which they were drafted.

 

Looking at the top 10 RB's in my league currently, how many of these guys were drafted in the first 2 rounds of most leagues

 

D. Johnson - Yes

Murray - No

Zeke - Yes

Hyde - No

Gordon -No

McCoy - Yes

Coleman - No

Crowell - No

Blount - No

D. Williams - No

 

So basically 30% of the top 10 RB's were high draft picks.

 

Looking at receivers in the same manner

Brown - Yes

J. Jones - Yes

M. Jones - No

Evans - Yes

Hilton - Yes

Crabtree - no

Green - Yes

Fitzgerald - No

D. Thomas - No

Cooper - Yes

 

6 of the top 10 WR's are high draft picks.

 

What this is bearing out thus far is that WR's were "safer" picks than RB's in the early rounds. Not that one position outscores the other.

 

It also illustrates that a team built around early round WR's and later round fliers on RB, is more likely to be a better team.

 

It's very conceivable that you could have drafted Julio in round one, Amari Cooper in round 2, then picked up Demarco Murray, Tevin Coleman and Isiah Crowell in later rounds and your team would be very good. Much harder to have dodged the land mine RB's in the first round and hoping you hit on Johnson, Zeke or Shady as any other high RB pick has been a disappointment thus far.

[Brutal Brutus 182]

well, a durable RB should have a good crack at double digit TDs as well as a few pass yards and 1000+ on the ground. WRs don't typically get rushing yards and TDs get spread out over multiple WRs instead of concentrated on one or two guys... yeah, there's the injury risk, but RBs are typically the way to go in my opinion (PPR leagues change that up a bit).

2 of the top 10 RBs were rafted as a top 10 back. 5 of the top 10 WRs were drafted in the top 10. Maybe one (Crabtree) of the top 10 WRs made it to round 8. 3 of the top 10 RBs were available in round 8 or later in most 12 team drafts. It's not that RBs don't produce, it's that they are harder to predict and come with a bigger injury risk.

[weepaws 3,206]

Rbs sure do seem to be more involed in the passing game.

 

Maybe that's due to lack of ability to throw the ball down field based on the defense trying to remove Wr from the offence.

[Brutal Brutus 182]

Rbs sure do seem to be more involed in the passing game.

 

Maybe that's due to lack of ability to throw the ball down field based on the defense trying to remove Wr from the offence.

I think it has more to do with RBBC. You now have backs who are specialists, with some being better at catching the ball than actually running the ball. The name "running" back is very misleading for about 1/3 of fantasy relevant backs.

[weepaws 3,206]

Yea that's a good point you make thanks.

[polecatt 478]

The "hype" wasn't so much that the top WR's would outscore the top RB's, it was around the fact that WR's were more likely to return the value at which they were drafted.

 

Looking at the top 10 RB's in my league currently, how many of these guys were drafted in the first 2 rounds of most leagues

 

D. Johnson - Yes

Murray - No

Zeke - Yes

Hyde - No

Gordon -No

McCoy - Yes

Coleman - No

Crowell - No

Blount - No

D. Williams - No

 

So basically 30% of the top 10 RB's were high draft picks.

 

Looking at receivers in the same manner

Brown - Yes

J. Jones - Yes

M. Jones - No

Evans - Yes

Hilton - Yes

Crabtree - no

Green - Yes

Fitzgerald - No

D. Thomas - No

Cooper - Yes

 

6 of the top 10 WR's are high draft picks.

 

What this is bearing out thus far is that WR's were "safer" picks than RB's in the early rounds. Not that one position outscores the other.

 

It also illustrates that a team built around early round WR's and later round fliers on RB, is more likely to be a better team.

 

It's very conceivable that you could have drafted Julio in round one, Amari Cooper in round 2, then picked up Demarco Murray, Tevin Coleman and Isiah Crowell in later rounds and your team would be very good. Much harder to have dodged the land mine RB's in the first round and hoping you hit on Johnson, Zeke or Shady as any other high RB pick has been a disappointment thus far.

What I'm saying has absolutely nothing to do with draft position.

For example in most of my leagues Antonio Brown, no surprise, is the #1 WR but he is already about 6-7 ppg below where he finished last season.

The top RBs be it D Johnson, Zeke or whoever are up about 4-5 points from where Freeman finished last season and about the same amount over the top WRs.

The point is RB scoring is way up and WR scoring is way down. I'm pretty sure if that had been expected then RBs would have been drafted much higher.

That's the old trend. The changing of the guard has been expected but it's not playing out that way this season.

[polecatt 478]

Cause it's only week 5 and the top ones haven't gone down to an injury yet.

AP, Langford, Doug Martin

There have been injuries.

[Brutal Brutus 182]

AP, Langford, Doug Martin

There have been injuries.

I meant the top scoring ones. They are far more likely to have a season ending injury as the season progresses than the top WR's because they receive 20+ touches a game.

[skinsrule05 30]

What I'm saying has absolutely nothing to do with draft position.

For example in most of my leagues Antonio Brown, no surprise, is the #1 WR but he is already about 6-7 ppg below where he finished last season.

The top RBs be it D Johnson, Zeke or whoever are up about 4-5 points from where Freeman finished last season and about the same amount over the top WRs.

The point is RB scoring is way up and WR scoring is way down. I'm pretty sure if that had been expected then RBs would have been drafted much higher.

That's the old trend. The changing of the guard has been expected but it's not playing out that way this season.

 

Your not listening to what he wrote. The shift to WRs was never made based on the idea that WRs score more. It was made because picking the top RBs is hard to do because there is so much turnover. His stats as far as when players were drafted proves that out so far.

 

This year the trend has continued in a very big way for this early on.

[jgcrawfish 232]

I think some of it is smoke and mirrors. Tevin Coleman is ranked high, but he's doing damage as a pass catching back. David Johnson does lots of damage as a pass catching back. Hell, Le'Veon Bell lined up at a WR spot for 6 snaps in a row in his 1st game back. Let's not confuse the RB's that run head first real fast into 300 lb linemen with the ones that catch swing passes and have to beat 1 guy on the outside to turn it into 10+ yds.

[polecatt 478]

 

Your not listening to what he wrote. The shift to WRs was never made based on the idea that WRs score more. It was made because picking the top RBs is hard to do because there is so much turnover. His stats as far as when players were drafted proves that out so far.

 

This year the trend has continued in a very big way for this early on.

I totally get what he is saying I just don't agree. Last season RBs were way down and WRs were way up. That's what led to it IMO, not a coincidence. That's changed this season so far. RBs are back up to where they usually are.

The stuff about turnover among RBs has always been the case. That's not a new trend.

[polecatt 478]

I think some of it is smoke and mirrors. Tevin Coleman is ranked high, but he's doing damage as a pass catching back. David Johnson does lots of damage as a pass catching back. Hell, Le'Veon Bell lined up at a WR spot for 6 snaps in a row in his 1st game back. Let's not confuse the RB's that run head first real fast into 300 lb linemen with the ones that catch swing passes and have to beat 1 guy on the outside to turn it into 10+ yds.

RBs scoring receiving points are up that's for sure. I think that's also a reason why this trend of WRs being drafted higher is just a fad.

RBs are just more versatile. You have the guys like Bell who get a lot of points in the air and the guys like Zeke who are getting a majority on the ground.

[jgcrawfish 232]

RBs scoring receiving points are up that's for sure. I think that's also a reason why this trend of WRs being drafted higher is just a fad.

RBs are just more versatile. You have the guys like Bell who get a lot of points in the air and the guys like Zeke who are getting a majority on the ground.

 

The problem is there aren't many guys like Bell. If you've ever watched him run routes, he might actually be a better router runner than Antonio Brown. Bell has moves he uses on his routes that just devastate the guy covering him. Lamar Miller was supposed to be similar, but he's clearly not cutting it. David Johnson is comparable. Jamaal Charles would be if he returns to his old self (but I don't think he will).

 

On another note, it's hard to compare Bell to anybody right now. Statistically speaking, of all RB's with over 3000 combined yards Bell has the highest total yards per game in the HISTORY of the NFL. There is not one HOF RB in front of him in yards per game.

[Brutal Brutus 182]

 

The problem is there aren't many guys like Bell. If you've ever watched him run routes, he might actually be a better router runner than Antonio Brown. Bell has moves he uses on his routes that just devastate the guy covering him. Lamar Miller was supposed to be similar, but he's clearly not cutting it. David Johnson is comparable. Jamaal Charles would be if he returns to his old self (but I don't think he will).

 

On another note, it's hard to compare Bell to anybody right now. Statistically speaking, of all RB's with over 3000 combined yards Bell has the highest total yards per game in the HISTORY of the NFL. There is not one HOF RB in front of him in yards per game.

No one is a better route runner than Brown. He may look better because he goes against linebackers, but Brown is the best route runner in the league and it's not close in my opinion. .

[mrmostlymittens 7]

Draft intelligently and ignore strategy articles in general. Take what's available.I started with Gurley, Murrays (both), Bell, and Ware with shite WRs because I drafted best available. I've since moved on Kelvin and Julio to balance the roster.

 

My point being wr vs rb isn't an issue. It's about finding the highest scoring group of players you can to fit your league's format. Then knowing when to sit your studs and start some kid vs. IND

[jgcrawfish 232]

No one is a better route runner than Brown. He may look better because he goes against linebackers, but Brown is the best route runner in the league and it's not close in my opinion. .

Not to derail this thread further, but I'm saying this as a Steeler fan and HUGE fan of AB84. Brown is the best WR in the game, and probably the quickest in the open field. But he's 5'10" and 180, he's supposed to be quick. Bell is freakin' 6'1" and 225 and doesn't need to play against an LB to get separation, he can do it against DB's and safeties. Brown is on a HOF arch. Bell is putting up GOAT per game #'s. There is a reason for it.

[polecatt 478]

 

The problem is there aren't many guys like Bell. If you've ever watched him run routes, he might actually be a better router runner than Antonio Brown. Bell has moves he uses on his routes that just devastate the guy covering him. Lamar Miller was supposed to be similar, but he's clearly not cutting it. David Johnson is comparable. Jamaal Charles would be if he returns to his old self (but I don't think he will).

 

On another note, it's hard to compare Bell to anybody right now. Statistically speaking, of all RB's with over 3000 combined yards Bell has the highest total yards per game in the HISTORY of the NFL. There is not one HOF RB in front of him in yards per game.

Of course there's not many guys like Bell. That's what makes him elite.

Now if he could just play 16 games. When he's out DeAngelo Williams is a top 5 RB.