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cmh6476

Chargers moving on from Rivers

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7 hours ago, weepaws said:

Wasn’t my point. 

What you say is true I agree with it, but why would the blocker get more targets then the better rec te?  

 

Because Arians isn't a big supporter of the TE... let alone 2 of them.  Howard got substantially more playing time because he's a better blocker.  When you consider that Howard was in on about 85% of the offensive snaps compared to Brate's 40%, the target count isn't all that surprising.  That said, when you look at targets per snap, it favors Brate.  Howard was getting 1 target for every 10.32 snaps while Brate was getting 1 target every 6.65 snaps.

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Again that’s exactly why Howard would get the boost in targets.  

 

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5 hours ago, weepaws said:

Again that’s exactly why Howard would get the boost in targets.  

 

When all WR's are healthy, Brate gets more targets.  I can't imagine why you'd target 4 of their last 5 games when their WR's missed the most time.  In the first 11 games, Brate had 36 targets and Howard had 27.  I don't understand your logic.  Howard's target share went up after Godwin and Evans got hurt.  Are you assuming that Godwin and Evans are going to miss all of 2020?

 

Side note, Howard had more snaps (485), than Brate (290), did in those 11 games.  To add to that even more, Howard played in 9 of those games.  Meaning, Howard doesn't go out that much compared to his playing time.  When they want to target a TE, they specifically target Brate.  Howard gets targets based on plays that break down.  If you bring in any competent QB like Rivers, Brady, or someone else of the sort, Brate is the guy you want because Winston forces a lot of plays to break down because he's a bad QB.  On top of that, Howard has missed at least 2 games every year.  He's injury prone.

 

Now of course, all of that could change if Brate gets cut.  He does have a $7M price tag and Howard does not.  Brate could be a cap casualty.

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Last two season, Howard has played 22 games Brate has played in 30 games, yet Brate as 3 more targets.  

My point is, the same as when we started this off season discussion, Howard would get a boost in targets with Rivers on the team.  

Your point is , no Brate well. 

I guess we need to wait until  next season to find.  

Im sticking to my original statement, and I know you’ll do the same. 

Thank you for the chat.  

Now that’s my logic.  

And I do agree Howard as been injury prone, which is what i said before, if he can stay healthy he should garner more targets with Rivers. 

I think the two WRs well lest targets then last season with Rivers, now that’s another discussion, which one loses the most, Godwin or Evans?  

Ready? 

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Going back to 2018 is kind of tough to gauge because of the inconsistency at QB and the game planning/calling.  Howard got more love from Fitzpatrick than Brate did... Brate got more love from Winston than Howard did.  One thing that I do know is that Koetter went out of his way to get Howard the ball.  It did't work out that well.  Plus, if Howard is a special talent, there's no reason why there's this much of an issue with his production.  Could this really be a by-product of Winston being a bad QB?  Absolutely.  But I don't think all of the blame can be put in that direction.  If Brate is gone and Howard is the only TE with a new QB, then yes, Howard should get a significant bump.  If Brate is still around, then your going to be begging.  I think the one thing that could also play a factor would be how quick players click with a new QB... be it Rivers, Brady, or someone else.  With Evans and Godwin, no QB coming to Tampa will need to develop a report with either TE.  I think it's something that'll just happen.  If Brate's around, I'd put my money on him being the first of the TE's develop that relationship with a new QB.

 

Targets may drop across the board, but I don't know that production will.  Why do I say that?  Because Winston needed 628 pass attempts to complete 380 of them.  Rivers completed 10 more passes while throwing 30 fewer times.  Over the last 10 seasons, with a solid running game, Rivers still averaged almost 568 attempts per 16 games played... Winston is at 566.  My point on that is, Rivers can throw the ball 600 times or less, but still complete more total passes (to the Buccaneers), than Winston can.

Because Rivers is more accurate than Winston, both WR's can see 25+ less targets but still be relatively close in receptions.  They also may increase their yards and their TD's totals because the offense should be more efficient.

Godwin was on pace for a 100/1492/11 season last year and Evans was on pace for 66/1096/7 season.  With Rivers, I can see both being on pace for similar or better because they'll likely be more efficient.  Evans is more likely to go up because he has more room, but I don't think it will come at the expense of Godwin.  I can see both in the 92/ 1350 / 12 range.  Based on last year, that would put both of them in the top 3.

 

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I agree with your post, and let me say it was really a great post, and I do mean that. 

But I do see a target reduction coming to either Godwin or Evans or even both if Rivers is sign to play for the Bucs.  

First he targets the te postion a lot more them Winston.  

And the reason why he completed 10 more while having 30 less att, his is targets to his Rbs. 

Last season the Chargers top two Rbs were targeted about 100 more times then the Bucs Rbs.  

Now I would agree , the Chargers Rbs are better. 

But those passes to the Rbs would be the reason for Rivers uptick in his completions even with 30 less att.  

If Rivers is the Bucs Qb next season I wouldn’t bet on both Godwin and Evans being a wr1.  

 

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That's a good point about Rivers passing a lot to RB's, I didn't think about that.  That definitely won't happen in Tampa with the team constructed as it is now.  Rivers does throw the ball a lot to TE's in the past, but I'm not so sure if that's because he had great TE's (Gates), or because that was the system.  My guess is that it's a combination of the two.  In Tampa, neither is the case.  They don't have great TE's, but "good" ones, and the system is designed to be anti-TE friendly.  With the existence of Godwin and Evans, I think any TE (or both if still there... there's even rumblings about Howard being on the trading block), in Tampa will probably take the place of the 3rd WR.  Most teams that have a productive TE, it's on teams where they're the #1 or #2 pass catcher, that won't be the case in Tampa.  Something to keep in mind though, is that there's rumors around David Johnson being on the trading block.  Tampa won't trade for him with his current contract as they're not going to spend all that money... but, the compensation could make it possible.  So, the Bucs could end up with a pass catching RB that familiar with Arians system.

 

If Rivers likes the TE because he feels that's a safer option, then I think the WR who will see a drop in targets would be Evans.  I don't think the Bucs would like that too much.  They're not going to want to be paying a #1WR $12M+ a year to see 100 targets and 60 receptions while Rivers is here.  I'm thinking that kind of evaluation and discussion would take place before Rivers is signed.  With that, I'm thinking that if Rivers says "I like going to the TE a lot", then he won't be a Buccaneer.

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1 hour ago, mattman7168 said:

Winston gets lasik...

link

If he can see his WR to throw him the ball, his eyesight isn't the reason he didn't see the defender.

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

That's a good point about Rivers passing a lot to RB's, I didn't think about that.  That definitely won't happen in Tampa with the team constructed as it is now.  Rivers does throw the ball a lot to TE's in the past, but I'm not so sure if that's because he had great TE's (Gates), or because that was the system.  My guess is that it's a combination of the two.  In Tampa, neither is the case.  They don't have great TE's, but "good" ones, and the system is designed to be anti-TE friendly.  With the existence of Godwin and Evans, I think any TE (or both if still there... there's even rumblings about Howard being on the trading block), in Tampa will probably take the place of the 3rd WR.  Most teams that have a productive TE, it's on teams where they're the #1 or #2 pass catcher, that won't be the case in Tampa.  Something to keep in mind though, is that there's rumors around David Johnson being on the trading block.  Tampa won't trade for him with his current contract as they're not going to spend all that money... but, the compensation could make it possible.  So, the Bucs could end up with a pass catching RB that familiar with Arians system.

 

If Rivers likes the TE because he feels that's a safer option, then I think the WR who will see a drop in targets would be Evans.  I don't think the Bucs would like that too much.  They're not going to want to be paying a #1WR $12M+ a year to see 100 targets and 60 receptions while Rivers is here.  I'm thinking that kind of evaluation and discussion would take place before Rivers is signed.  With that, I'm thinking that if Rivers says "I like going to the TE a lot", then he won't be a Buccaneer.

I think this is a byproduct of playing behind a terrible line in San Diego/LA and having subpar WR's.   Lots of checkdowns to the RB and the TE.   also that offense was made for throws to the TE and RB.  Lots more plays they are the first read than in other offenses.

I dont know that we will see this so much in Tampa (if he plays there)  it is a more  WR-centric offense than what the chargers employ.

 

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2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

That's a good point about Rivers passing a lot to RB's, I didn't think about that.  That definitely won't happen in Tampa with the team constructed as it is now.  Rivers does throw the ball a lot to TE's in the past, but I'm not so sure if that's because he had great TE's (Gates), or because that was the system.  My guess is that it's a combination of the two.  In Tampa, neither is the case.  They don't have great TE's, but "good" ones, and the system is designed to be anti-TE friendly.  With the existence of Godwin and Evans, I think any TE (or both if still there... there's even rumblings about Howard being on the trading block), in Tampa will probably take the place of the 3rd WR.  Most teams that have a productive TE, it's on teams where they're the #1 or #2 pass catcher, that won't be the case in Tampa.  Something to keep in mind though, is that there's rumors around David Johnson being on the trading block.  Tampa won't trade for him with his current contract as they're not going to spend all that money... but, the compensation could make it possible.  So, the Bucs could end up with a pass catching RB that familiar with Arians system.

 

If Rivers likes the TE because he feels that's a safer option, then I think the WR who will see a drop in targets would be Evans.  I don't think the Bucs would like that too much.  They're not going to want to be paying a #1WR $12M+ a year to see 100 targets and 60 receptions while Rivers is here.  I'm thinking that kind of evaluation and discussion would take place before Rivers is signed.  With that, I'm thinking that if Rivers says "I like going to the TE a lot", then he won't be a Buccaneer.

I was thinking about Hunt.  

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10 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

I think this is a byproduct of playing behind a terrible line in San Diego/LA and having subpar WR's.   Lots of checkdowns to the RB and the TE.   also that offense was made for throws to the TE and RB.  Lots more plays they are the first read than in other offenses.

I dont know that we will see this so much in Tampa (if he plays there)  it is a more  WR-centric offense than what the chargers employ.

 

Agreed.  If Rivers signs in Tampa, it will have to be with the understanding of the style of play the Bucs use.

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1 hour ago, weepaws said:

I was thinking about Hunt.  

That's certainly a possibility.  Though, I have my reservations.  It would depend on the punishment, if any, the NFL hands down to him based on the most recent incident and the possible new CBA.  If a new CBA gets ratified, then there might not be any suspension at all.  If the CBA doesn't get settled until the summer, the Bucs will have already addressed the RB position through the draft or via trade... I think.

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I would think so also.  

Did forget about his new issue.  

 

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Colts huh, now that would be a good move for both.  

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