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Ray_T

4th and 15 rule to be reviewed

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I don’t see why anyone , any coach, would want to try it if their team is in the lead.  

I can see why they would if they are trying to catch up and time is running out. .

Dont really see any kind of strategy move, if your behind and short on time, try it, if your head why try it.  

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When you have a team like the Chiefs, who convert about 93% of their 4th and 15+ tries when the game is on the line anyway, it's a no-brainer.

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I just don't see a team trying to go for this if they have the lead.

Teams almost never go for it on 4th and 3 at midfield unless they're trailing late in the 4th.

I don't see a team with the lead going for it at their own 25

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I agree they won’t try it if they have the lead, but reading the article was funny, because it read like there would be so much strategy involved, again it’s simply behind and running out of time, why not go for it, but if your ahead, your not going to chance it , there is no way.

Just read a couple of articles about the conversion rate of 4th and 15 yards to go based on this rule, the conversion rate is 23% over the last 20 years, that’s from these articles , so it doesn’t sound like a smart coach would go for it if you have the lead.  

Kc had zero 4th and 15 conversions last season, they didn’t try any.  

But they where good on third and long conversions  

 

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53 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Kc had zero 4th and 15 conversions last season, they didn’t try any.  

Ah, so they didn't fail a single time then.  That's even better than the 7% failure rate that I guessed.

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On 5/22/2020 at 5:47 PM, polecatt said:

I just don't see a team trying to go for this if they have the lead.

How many teams do an onside kick with the lead?

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On 5/22/2020 at 3:47 PM, polecatt said:

I just don't see a team trying to go for this if they have the lead.

Teams almost never go for it on 4th and 3 at midfield unless they're trailing late in the 4th.

I don't see a team with the lead going for it at their own 25

well, I think the rule is designed that way.   there is an incentive to  not do it unless necessary.   This way its just another option  for a hail mary to tie the game.

certainly the option should be there for  anyone at any  time, but the odds are good  that most teams  wont  try unless they absolutely need to. 

I do not think a rule like this hurts the game.

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14 hours ago, Utilit99 said:

How many teams do an onside kick with the lead?

None, but this isn't an onsides kick, that's kind of the point

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8 hours ago, Ray_T said:

well, I think the rule is designed that way.   there is an incentive to  not do it unless necessary.   This way its just another option  for a hail mary to tie the game.

certainly the option should be there for  anyone at any  time, but the odds are good  that most teams  wont  try unless they absolutely need to. 

I do not think a rule like this hurts the game.

It certainly is, but I think he's kind of hinting at the idea. The Chiefs have an advantage with this new rule. It's just something new on the table.

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How do the Chiefs have an advantage? 

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On 5/22/2020 at 3:18 PM, weepaws said:

I don’t see why anyone , any coach, would want to try it if their team is in the lead.  

I can see why they would if they are trying to catch up and time is running out. .

Dont really see any kind of strategy move, if your behind and short on time, try it, if your head why try it.  

I easily can.

You're down 7-0 with 5 minutes to go in the 1st quarter.  You take 7 minutes and get a FG, then after 1 minute, get the ball back after a quick 3 and out.  You then go 80 yards in 8 minutes as the defense is huffing and puffing as you put the ball in the end zone to take a 10-7 lead with 4 minutes to go in the 2nd quarter.  You just score 10 points while holding the ball for 15 of the last 16 minutes.  Me?  I'm trying to get the ball back.  I can hold the ball for 19 of 20 minutes and put up 17 straight points... maybe only 13.  Sign me up.

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So your down 7 and you go down make the ff now it’s 7-3. 

Its now early second qtr, you go for a 4th and 15 don’t make the other team takes over , great field position and scores another td , so now your down 14-3 , stupid move, thank you, happy Memorial Day. 

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17 minutes ago, weepaws said:

So your down 7 and you go down make the ff now it’s 7-3. 

Its now early second qtr, you go for a 4th and 15 don’t make the other team takes over , great field position and scores another td , so now your down 14-3 , stupid move, thank you, happy Memorial Day. 

No.  The scenario I gave you is that after the FG, you kick off.  Got the ball back after a 3 and out.  Then went down for the go ahead TD.  The 4th and 15 comes AFTER taking a 10-7 lead.

 

The scenario you described/interpreted, is the one you were advocating.  Meaning, going for the 4th and 15 while losing.

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The only time a smart coach would use this rule if they where down by a lot of points , if your up to much to lose .

either way if a team is ahead , they won’t use it, to much to lose, and coaches wouldn’t want to make that mistake, no way.  

The more I look into a 4th and 15 situation over time, the less I like it.

i mean I have no problem making it a new rule, that’s great, but everything I’ve seen, a team as less then a 25% chance of making the 15 yards, that’s about the avg over a twenty year span. 

 

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I don't know if I like it yet or not, I'm just saying that I can see a scenario where a team in the lead would chose to try the 4th and 15.

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Basically a team that was leading would attempt this conversion pretty much in the same situations that a leading team would attempt an onside kick; for instance, when you're playing the Chiefs and you only have a 20 point lead with five minutes to go in the game.

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On 5/24/2020 at 6:23 PM, polecatt said:

It certainly is, but I think he's kind of hinting at the idea. The Chiefs have an advantage with this new rule. It's just something new on the table.

good teams have an advantage for almost every rule.  that is why they are good teams.

the chiefs may be able to convert up to 50% of their 4th and 15's if they tried em.  maybe more, but that isnt Andy Reid's style. 

I could see teams doing more no huddle offenses to keep tired Defenses from subbing in and out when they feel a 4th and 15 can be done after scoring a TD on a long drive.   That would  be good strategy.

also good for the game.   faster gameplay  wiith less time between snaps of the football is generally good for TV as well.    The NFL knows  it  too.

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I could see a team that scored right before the half to go into the lead(or not) choosing the 4th and 15 if there was less than 5 seconds left to avoid the kickoff return.

Mahomes has more successful plays of 3rd or 4th and 15 yards or more of any qb in the past decade.

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I hate to ask this question, but where can I find that article about Mahomes having the most successful plays of any Qb the past decade on 4th and 15 plus yards, I don’t care about 3rd down, just the 4th down and 15 plus yards? 

Thanks I would like to read that.  

 

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Now you get only two attempts per game, and the game clock does run, so it would seem like a pretty easy call if your down, but ahead, naw.  

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5 hours ago, weepaws said:

Now you get only two attempts per game, and the game clock does run, so it would seem like a pretty easy call if your down, but ahead, naw.  

I'm not so sure about the limit being all that important.  As for the clock running, why wouldn't it?  It runs on kickoff's.

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As you can see, now the clock would not be running, which makes more sense to me. This way a team that scores with 5 seconds left in the half can't just go for it without suffering the consequences of missing the conversion...

 

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2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I'm not so sure about the limit being all that important.  As for the clock running, why wouldn't it?  It runs on kickoff's.

The only difference about the clock would be, it doesn't run on the kick, only when the ball is touched/advanced out of the end zone. On a 4th and 15 it would start at the snap. So I could see that being a minor consideration.

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4 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I'm not so sure about the limit being all that important.  As for the clock running, why wouldn't it?  It runs on kickoff's.

Limit could be important based on the out come of the game, with the game going forward, if a team ahead uses one early just, and now down to one left, and then they fall behind late by two or more scores, they then would only have one to use, when they really need them.

As for the clock I thought it was a free play, but I read that it’s a timed play, so kickoffs the clock starts on the catch not when the ball is kicked.  But looks like it might be a free untimed play, based on the post above   

Thanks. 

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I think the rules for this make it apparent to me that this is making a mountain out of a mole hill while trying to build an ant hill.  It's all stupid.

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I liked it, but now it’s going to be a untimed play, that I don’t like, if your going to run a play, use the game clock. 

I hope they vote it in, I can’t wait to see if and how teams we’ll use it.  

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The reason I think this is stupid is because I think the problem was minor (# of concussions on on-sides kicks), is way smaller than the number of total injuries that can happen on a random play.  I don't really recall too many injuries happening on on-sides kicks.  Most of the time, there's no contact.  The kicker generally kicks it too far or goes right to an opposing player who drops on the ball, or it goes out of bounds.  On a random play, there are 22 guys who can get a concussion, break a bone, tear a ligament, etc.  This new rule is going to create a problem when one doesn't exist.

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I agree with TB, but I like it, that it does add in a new situation for a team that’s behind with little time to catchup. 

Thats how I see it being used, I don’t like that it’s a untimed play, it should still be run like any other play. 

 

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Looks like that’s over. 

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