Pick Keepers based on COVID?

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

In my keeper league, players have dollar values generated by their performance and draft position... not auction values.  I have...

• Patrick Mahomes - $5.16
• Ezekiel Elliott - $7.42
• Miles Sanders - $4.81
• Ronald Jones - $2.37
• Kareem Hunt - $2.29
• Chris Godwin - $5.82
• DJ Moore - $4.92
• JuJu Smith-Schuster - $2.85
• Ryquell Armstead - $0.85

 

I'm keeping Mahomes, Sanders, and Godwin no matter what, but do I pick the best possible players based on talent or pick players for depth?

 

If I keep Elliott, my keepers will be:

• Patrick Mahomes - $5.16
• Ezekiel Elliott - $7.42
• Miles Sanders - $4.81
• Chris Godwin - $5.82
• DJ Moore - $4.92
• Ryquell Armstead - $0.85

These guys will cost me $28.99 (max amount is $30).

If I keep everyone else on that list, except for Elliott, my cost will be $29.07.  Am I better off with Elliott and less players or without Elliott and more players?

 

[weepaws 2,461]

I’ve never seen this before, so I’m sorry , but if you keep the Zeke, those others go back into the draft, and become available to be drafted by any other owner right? 

[FantasyKing 4]

I believe this is the first time in all my years I have ever seen cents associated with keeper values....interesting.

What is the cap limit here?  It's hard to gauge.

[kcBlitzkrieg 17]

So you can have either for basically the same price of...?

Mahomes
Zeke
Sanders
Godwin

or

No Zeke but have Jones, JuJu, Moore, Hunt & Armstead?  
 

[kcBlitzkrieg 17]

I'd be looking at what WRs vs RBs will be available to draft if I'm leaning towards option 1.  

available > Zeke or available > Godwin, Juju, Moore?  

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

I’ve never seen this before, so I’m sorry , but if you keep the Zeke, those others go back into the draft, and become available to be drafted by any other owner right? 

Not all of them, but if I kept Elliott, I'd have to send Jones, Hunt, and Juju back.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

1 hour ago, FantasyKing said:

I believe this is the first time in all my years I have ever seen cents associated with keeper values....interesting.

What is the cap limit here?  It's hard to gauge.

2nd to last line in OP... the max is $30.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

13 minutes ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

So you can have either for basically the same price of...?

Mahomes
Zeke
Sanders
Godwin

or

No Zeke but have Jones, JuJu, Moore, Hunt & Armstead?  
 

If I keep Elliott, I can keep Moore and Armstead.  It's basically, Elliott or Jones, Hunt, and Juju.

10 minutes ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

I'd be looking at what WRs vs RBs will be available to draft if I'm leaning towards option 1.  

available > Zeke or available > Godwin, Juju, Moore?  

There's always about 3 or 4 studs in the draft and the rookies... that's usually who goes in the first round, well, the first 7 picks anyway.  I pick 9th.  The thing is, am I better off with depth at the starting point, given this years volatility, or just take the best players.

 

I see it as starting with a QB1, two RB1's, a WR1, WR2, and lottery ticket (Armstead) or a QB1, RB1, RB2, FlexRB, two WR1's, WR2, and a lottery ticket.

[kcBlitzkrieg 17]

Got it thanks....that said I'd go with option A and Zeke.  

[weepaws 2,461]

26 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Not all of them, but if I kept Elliott, I'd have to send Jones, Hunt, and Juju back.

I would keep the Zeke. 

[AxeElf 787]

4 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

• Patrick Mahomes - $5.16
• Ezekiel Elliott - $7.42
• Miles Sanders - $4.81
• Ronald Jones - $2.37 (non-PPR)
• Kareem Hunt - $2.29 (PPR)
• Chris Godwin - $5.82
• DJ Moore - $4.92
• JuJu Smith-Schuster - $2.85
• Ryquell Armstead - $0.85

Total PPR: $29.20; non-PPR: $29.28

Juju and Moore are about a push, but going with Juju lets you keep another backup RB in either Jones (if it's a non-PPR league) or Hunt (if it's a PPR league).

[kcBlitzkrieg 17]

1 minute ago, AxeElf said:

Total PPR: $29.20; non-PPR: $29.28

Juju and Moore are about a push, but going with Juju lets you keep another backup RB in either Jones (if it's a non-PPR league) or Hunt (if it's a PPR league).

I'd be all over this option... JuJu and Hunt   $28.35 NO Jones, DJ or Armstead.  

[AxeElf 787]

1 minute ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

I'd be all over this option... JuJu and Hunt   $28.35 NO Jones, DJ or Armstead.  

I agree that Armstead is a flyer at best, but why not keep him if he's basically free?

Now, if that money can be added to the draft budget later, then sure--don't keep Armstead--but if it's $30 to "use it or lose it," then you might as well keep the cheap scrub just in case.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

5 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Total PPR: $29.20; non-PPR: $29.28

Juju and Moore are about a push, but going with Juju lets you keep another backup RB in either Jones (if it's a non-PPR league) or Hunt (if it's a PPR league).

 

1 minute ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

I'd be all over this option... JuJu and Hunt   $28.35 NO Jones, DJ or Armstead.  

Yeah, looks like a solid option.

My whole approach was looking at a c.y.a. move and have as much depth as possible going into the draft.  Most people keep 5 guys, so you'd have to assume that the top 40-45 players are off the board.  I pick 9th, so there's another 8 more after that.

[kcBlitzkrieg 17]

Just now, AxeElf said:

I agree that Armstead is a flyer at best, but why not keep him if he's basically free?

Now, if that money can be added to the draft budget later, then sure--don't keep Armstead--but if it's $30 to "use it or lose it," then you might as well keep the cheap scrub just in case.

I hear you there. 

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,592]

3 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Total PPR: $29.20; non-PPR: $29.28

Juju and Moore are about a push, but going with Juju lets you keep another backup RB in either Jones (if it's a non-PPR league) or Hunt (if it's a PPR league).

this makes most sense to me

 

[polecatt 403]

12 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

In my keeper league, players have dollar values generated by their performance and draft position... not auction values.  I have...

• Patrick Mahomes - $5.16
• Ezekiel Elliott - $7.42
• Miles Sanders - $4.81
• Ronald Jones - $2.37
• Kareem Hunt - $2.29
• Chris Godwin - $5.82
• DJ Moore - $4.92
• JuJu Smith-Schuster - $2.85
• Ryquell Armstead - $0.85

 

I'm keeping Mahomes, Sanders, and Godwin no matter what, but do I pick the best possible players based on talent or pick players for depth?

 

If I keep Elliott, my keepers will be:

• Patrick Mahomes - $5.16
• Ezekiel Elliott - $7.42
• Miles Sanders - $4.81
• Chris Godwin - $5.82
• DJ Moore - $4.92
• Ryquell Armstead - $0.85

These guys will cost me $28.99 (max amount is $30).

If I keep everyone else on that list, except for Elliott, my cost will be $29.07.  Am I better off with Elliott and less players or without Elliott and more players?

 

I would keep Zeke and Mahomes, drop Godwin if you have to drop a high priced guy and keep Juju. It's much easier to build depth with WRs than RBs.

[AxeElf 787]

44 minutes ago, polecatt said:

I would keep Zeke and Mahomes, drop Godwin if you have to drop a high priced guy and keep Juju. It's much easier to build depth with WRs than RBs.

Leader in the clubhouse for the worst preseason advice.

[polecatt 403]

12 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Leader in the clubhouse for the worst preseason advice.

I would drop him over Mahomes or Zeke, but you can believe whatever you want

[lesjroza 70]

You haven't mentioned exactly how the values are calculated (Is the draft position value this years FF ADP, or where you took in a previous draft, how/if draft position inflates over time, etc) but I think I'd be hard pressed not to try and keep Hunt at what appears to be his percentage of the cap.

If he is an off-field problem again you lose, but otherwise there are too many ways to win. He should have weekly flex value this year so solid RB depth. He would have high RB1 value with Chubb injury this year (or Corona IR). He seems likely to get another shot elsewhere at a RB1 job next year. Price makes him an awfully attractive asset IMO, if nothing else could see him getting you that league winning trade deal at the deadline to a team looking to next year. The Browns may even be thinking the same way at the deadline this year. My thinking is mostly risk/reward based on the price so I could be missing something based on how the values work.

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

11 minutes ago, lesjroza said:

You haven't mentioned exactly how the values are calculated (Is the draft position value this years FF ADP, or where you took in a previous draft, how/if draft position inflates over time, etc) but I think I'd be hard pressed not to try and keep Hunt at what appears to be his percentage of the cap.

If he is an off-field problem again you lose, but otherwise there are too many ways to win. He should have weekly flex value this year so solid RB depth. He would have high RB1 value with Chubb injury this year (or Corona IR). He seems likely to get another shot elsewhere at a RB1 job next year. Price makes him an awfully attractive asset IMO, if nothing else could see him getting you that league winning trade deal at the deadline to a team looking to next year. The Browns may even be thinking the same way at the deadline this year. My thinking is mostly risk/reward based on the price so I could be missing something based on how the values work.

 

Player values are based on 40% draft value and 60% performance value.

Draft value:  First round players are $10, 20th round (last round), are $0.50... each round is a $0.50 increment.  So, 2nd round in $9.50, 3rd round is $9, and so on.

Performance value is based on a $10 scale:  The highest scoring player in each position is $10.  Each player after him are based on the differential between their points and the top player at that position.  Pat Mahomes was a 16th round pick (I drafted him in his rookie season with my last pick - player rounds go up by 2 each year they're kept), so his draft value $2.50 cents.  He scored 295.04 points, Lamar Jackson was the #1 QB at 425.68.  So Mahomes' performance value is 295.04 / 425.68 = 0.6931, take that number and multiply it by 10 ($10 scale), so his performance cost is $6.93.

Player salary: $2.50 (draft value) x 40% + $6.93 (performance value) x 60% = $1 + $4.16 = $5.16