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AxeElf

Mostert FTW!

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22 minutes ago, Canadianfan said:

not every horse race ends with the favourite.

The last time a horse won the Kentucky Derby with those kind of odds was 1913. So I guess your due...

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Casual fan yes, but I try to watch the Kentucky Derby. In 2005, turned the TV on before the race and saw like 50-1 odds on my ‘namesake’ horse Giacomo,. If more time, it’d have been fun to put some money on the race he went on to win. A long shot won again in 2019.

who could have predicted Mostert’s 228 yd playoff explosion? Long shot yes, but I think he’s better than 82-1. Btw I’d like to see a race between Raheem and Tyreek! 😎

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Mustard won't get enough carries to make up the 250 yards he currently is behind. Tevin Coleman is due back in a couple of weeks. If you get 50 bucks of entertainment out of it, then yeah, who cares, but kiss that money goodbye, its as good as gone...

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If you think Moestert has better than a 1.2% chance of winning the rushing title, than it's worth the bet with the understanding that you'll likely lose.

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29 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Mustard won't get enough carries to make up the 250 yards he currently is behind. Tevin Coleman is due back in a couple of weeks. If you get 50 bucks of entertainment out of it, then yeah, who cares, but kiss that money goodbye, its as good as gone...

I kissed about 150 bucks worth of rips good bye last night.  good as gone , but boy was it fun 

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1 hour ago, bobby heenan said:

i dont how much gambling you do...

I am a semi-professional poker player--so none, really.

1 hour ago, bobby heenan said:

but i can assure you ive been involved very much for the last 20+ years...

I would be curious how much you have lost over the years, but I know I won't get an honest answer from a gambler.

1 hour ago, bobby heenan said:

you need to learn about expected value...

In the process of receiving my Master of Science degree, various statistics courses were required.  Assuming a standard 10% vig, your expected value on a $50 bet at 82-1 odds is 4.8 cents.

1 hour ago, bobby heenan said:

mostert at 82-1 is good value...it may be a long shot but the odds certainly reflect it....its def worth a 50-100 dollar bet just for the potential return.....

I agree that the odds of Mostert winning the rushing title may indeed be more than 82-1 (those odds probably reflect the fact that Mostert continues to kind of fly under the radar, both in fantasy and in real life), but even if it's really 10-1, the chances are very good that you are still losing.  The odds are better that you will flip three heads in a row than that you will win a 10-1 bet.

So as someone else said, if you just made a longshot bet for the fun of it, enjoy.  But for someone who says they do a lot of gambling, it just tells me that you probably lose a lot more than you win.

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Mostert runs too upright for me to think he'll stay healthy with heavy enough usage to win the rushing title.  That said if he is anywhere close with 2 weeks to go, you can realize value out of the ticket by hedging out of it and betting the under on Mostert's rushing totals.

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16 minutes ago, Canadianfan said:

I kissed about 150 bucks worth of rips good bye last night.  good as gone , but boy was it fun 

Win some lose some, but live to fight another day...

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On that rushing title bet... I would worry about their upcoming schedule and if they can stay competitive enough to continue to run the ball later in games.

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If one can afford to put $50 casually on an 82-1 long shot for fun, hardly would call it not working a gut punch.

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Coach Kyle Shanahan said Raheem Mostert has a high-ankle sprain and is likely headed to injured reserve. This guy seems to have trouble staying healthy...

 

 

 

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I would assume he goes on IR, and we don't see him before Week 12 since San Francisco has their bye in Week 11.  He could end up a beast at playoff time......or he could get hurt in the 1st half of his 1st game back.  I'll stash him on my roster I guess.

 

Is anyone picking up JaMycal Hasty?

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On 10/18/2020 at 3:46 PM, AxeElf said:

Henry's chances of repeating as rushing champion just took an upward turn.

Henry is a monster.   I had my doubts after he signed that deal.  I Thought he’d fade like most other backs that sign long term multi million dollar deals.  Nope,  got better.  

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