Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Fumbleweed

*2021 June Mock No-Hassle Analysis*

Recommended Posts

Hawkeye21:

1.01- RB Christian McCaffrey, Car. 
2.12- WR A.J. Brown, Ten. 
3.01- WR Allen Robinson, Chi. 
4.12- TE Mark Andrews, Bal. 
5.01- RB Ronald Jones, TB 
6.12- RB Michael Carter, NYJ
7.01- QB Ryan Tannehill, Ten. 
8.12- WR Robby Anderson, Car.
9.01- WR Jarvis Landry, Cle. 
10.12- RB A.J. Dillon, GB
11.01- TE Evan Engram, NYG
12.12- QB Daniel Jones, NYG
13.01- WR Henry Ruggs III, LV
14.12- D/ST, Indianapolis Colts
15.01- RB Tarik Cohen, Chi. 
16.12- K Wil Lutz, NO

Analysis: Having one of the first three picks this season pretty much locks you into one of three RBs, each of whom is capable of being the foundation for your team. Beyond that obvious reality, Hawkeye seemingly sought to surround his star RB with talent at each of the primary positions, opting initially to select a strong WR duo and later trying to find McCaffrey a solid running mate. Quarterback is not an obvious strength of this team, but Tannehill's value is easy to underestimate at this point given the sort of weapons he'll have at his disposal come September. Certainly, when he and A.J. Brown have a big day together, Hawkeye will greatly benefit. There were some safe, conservative picks in this draft and also a few that were more bold including the selection of Michael Carter in the sixth round. All in all, Hawkeye didn't do anything to screw up the gift of having the first pick and he simply must hope that his stud RB is able to stay healthy this season unlike the 2020 campaign. This team is deep and appears carefully crafted. Picks like Dillon and Ruggs share the upside, also, that Carter does. 

Key to No-Hassle Success: There are likely several, but an initial thought would be Mark Andrews continuing to get the same sort of targets and red zone looks that he's accustomed to. Baltimore revamped its receiving corps in the offseason and should be better by leaps and bounds as an overall unit. Will that impact the reliance on Andrews that has existed in recent years? We shall see. Another key is going to be either Ronald Jones or Michael Carter being a consistent double-digit scorer. Perhaps that means Jones doing so early in the season followed by Carter doing so later on. Everything else looks pretty solid and in this section, we're not going to harp too much on "staying healthy" as that's true for every team. That said, a full season out of McCaffrey likely keeps this team a contender all year long. So, I guess that's still the ultimate key. 

Favorite Pick: I know Julio Jones is going to impact the target share some, but he's also going to free up Brown for single coverage from time to time and that makes A.J. a very dangerous man. The fact that Hawkeye got a WR of Brown's caliber at the 2-3 turn was fortunate and he took advantage making a great pick. I also like both the selections of Robby Anderson and A.J. Dillon later on. Anderson may flourish with Darnold once again being the guy throwing him the ball. 

Least Favorite Pick: I thought both tight ends on this team were picked a tad early as I don't think Andrews' production this season is going to warrant anything better than a late 5th/early 6th round pick and I'm not high on Evan Engram at all. That said, I liked just about every other pick Hawk made. 

Overall outlook: This is a very well-rounded team. Even though it is built upon a star RB, the team is going to be able to score in multiple ways and is deep enough that injuries to anyone not named McCaffrey should be able to be overcome. The contrast in picks was fun to watch throughout the draft as Hawk alternated seemingly between veterans with established floors (Robinson, Jones, Landry) and younger players with upside (Carter, Dillon, Ruggs). This is a team that is very likely, thus, to contend for a No-Hassle title with McCaffrey leading the way. That said, the QBs must step up to that next level in terms of weekly point production. As each has gained in terms of personnel added, I think that step up is likely to occur. 

 

Worm:

1.02- RB Dalvin Cook, Min. 
2.11- WR Michael Thomas, NO
3.02- RB Antonio Gibson, Was. 
4.11- WR Chris Godwin, TB
5.02- QB Kyler Murray, Ari. 
6.11- WR Odell Beckham, Jr., Cle. 
7.02- RB Damien Harris, NE
8.11- WR Deebo Samuel, SF
9.02- TE Rob Gronkowski, TB
10.11- RB Latavius Murray, NO
11.02- TE Robert Tonyan, GB
12.11- QB Ben Roethlisberger, Pit.
13.02- WR Nelson Agholor, NE
14.11- RB Rashaad Penny, Sea. 
15.02- D/ST, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
16.11- K Matt Gay, LAR

Analysis: Identical foundation for Worm here in relation to Hawkeye''s team as Dalvin Cook becomes the centerpiece followed by a cast of talented teammates. Worm obviously valued a more solid RB2, however, and the selection of Gibson was widely praised in the draft commentary as it should have been. You would be hard pressed to find a better 1-2 punch at the position than Cook and Gibson. At WR, though, there are considerable question marks. Who will Michael Thomas be in the post-Brees world in New Orleans? Can Odell Beckham be trusted? What role will Deebo Samuel hold with Brandon Aiyuk emerging as the potential alpha dog in that receiving corps? If all of the "ifs" turn into positives, there's no limit to what this team could achieve. But, the receiving corps here contains much more risk than the group that Hawkeye selected. Quarterback is in good hands with the fantasy emergent Murray at the helm while tight end will be hit and miss as both Gronkowski and Tonyan are projected to be somewhat TD-dependent. Taking a broader view, this team is less "safe" in spots than Hawk's, but what a team it will be if guys like Thomas and Beckham can turn back the clock a couple of years. 

Key to No-Hassle Success: Worm really invested in Michael Thomas by making him his second round choice. While Thomas remains a top tier real-world NFL wide receiver, I question whether or not he can be an elite fantasy contributor this season, particularly in a non-PPR format. Thomas doesn't have to be what he once was, but he needs to be top-10 for Worm to consider the pick a successful one. I love the RB depth on this team, so I think Worm is set there, but the late picks of Roethlisberger, Agholor, and Penny carried lots of risk in terms of any of them contributing. No big deal in Penny's case with Harris and Murray providing support for Cook/Gibson, but if the other Murray (Kyler) were to get hurt, it could devastate this team having to rely on Ben's production alone. Thus, Kyler needs to stay upright and the WR corps needs an alpha to emerge. 

Favorite Pick:  The 3-4 turn really gave Worm the edge in terms of evaluating the team as a whole. Gibson was a great pick, I think, as has already been noted and then he quietly nabbed Chris Godwin in a perfect spot to hedge his bets a little at WR. If neither Thomas nor Beckham lives up to Worm's expectations, at least he'll be able to count on the steady production of Godwin, who profiles as an ideal WR2. I also really like the Damien Harris pick. Again, this is not a PPR league and Harris could put up really solid numbers in recognition of that. Certainly numbers that out-distance the spot in which he was picked. 

Least Favorite Pick: I thought Michael Thomas and Rob Gronkowski were both picked too early, but Tonyan went pretty late, so the Gronk pick alongside him sort of balances out. Again, I see Thomas as a top 15-20 WR and as Worm admitted, A.J. Brown would have probably been the better choice in terms of expected production. We shall see. 

Overall outlook: While I would be more comfortable with Hawkeye's team than Worm's, Worm arguably has the greater upside with a much better RB2, a much more dynamic QB, and a couple of players whose potential makes them worthy team members in spite of recent ups and downs, health-wise. The receiving corps on this team is ultimately going to make or break things with QB and RB in such good hands. Should the team end up being in the top-5 in WR production, points-wise, and Dalvin Cook stays on the field, it's quite easy to envision Worm winning the league given how much explosive potential exists from nearly every corner of the roster. If, however, this team ends up ranking in the bottom third of the league in WR points scored, I think they'll come up just short. Still, this was a good draft, highlighted by two extraordinary picks in the third and fourth rounds. 

 

Remote Controller:

1.03- RB Derrick Henry, Ten. 
2.10- WR Justin Jefferson, Min. 
3.03- RB Austin Ekeler, LAC 
4.10- WR Robert Woods, LAR
5.03- QB Russell Wilson, Sea. 
6.10- RB Mike Davis, Atl. 
7.03- WR Ja'Marr Chase, Cin. 
8.10- TE Logan Thomas, Was. 
9.03- WR Marquise Brown, Bal. 
10.10- TE Irv Smith, Jr., Min.
11.03- RB Kenyan Drake, LV
12.10- QB Derek Carr, LV
13.03- WR Rondale Moore, Ari. 
14.10- RB Justin Jackson, LAC
15.03- D/ST, Washington Football Team 
16.10- K Robbie Gould, SF

Analysis: What a haul in the first four rounds for Remote! First, he was able to get the last remaining RB in the top tier and then he added a dynamic young receiver capable of being the top receiver in all of fantasy football alongside the ideal RB2 and WR2 picks. Simply put, it would be impossible to script an opening four rounds as good as this in terms of laying the foundation for success. Then, Remote landed the best RB3 on the planet by way of perceived floor value and followed it up with a rookie WR capable of being this year's Justin Jefferson. The fact that he got two tight ends very much on the way up in their careers and then topped it all off with another high-end rookie prospect at WR, and it's not difficult to arrive at the spot I'm in- which is that this was my favorite team in the draft. Draft position had something to do with it, certainly, as the 1-3 spot is the ideal place to land three marquee players right out of the gate, but Remote also did a great job in the middle rounds of building upon his early success. If there's something not to like about this team, I must admit that I am having a hard time finding it. 

Key to No-Hassle Success: With all the pieces that are in place, bad breaks health-wise are likely the only thing that's going to slow this team down. Additionally, if both rookie WRs were to be non-factors in their first year on the field, Marquise Brown would need to take a step up at WR to give the team something to go alongside Jefferson and Woods. I think Chase is going to excel, though, meaning anything Brown does will be icing on the cake. That means that in reality, there's not much shy of bad luck that's going to stop this team from being dynamic. It may be the best team I've ever seen assembled coming out of a June Mock draft. Even if some of the sort of risky picks don't pan out, there are people in place who can pick up the slack. 

Favorite Pick: Where do I start? Henry was a great pick, but also an obvious one. Jefferson, Ekeler, and Woods were ideal picks and fell just right in this draft so that a truly ideal foursome could emerge. Like most, I really thought Mike Davis was a steal at 6.10 and Chase a steal also just a round later. I would trade my TEs in a heartbeat for Thomas and Smith as they were both targets at that position. The late selection of Drake was also a solid value pick from my perspective. 

Least Favorite Pick: When Russell Wilson was picked, there were at least 2-3 other QBs still on the board that I liked better than him. I thought picking a QB at 5.03 was perfectly fine, but if I were given the choice of a QB at that spot based on who was still left, I would have chosen a different guy. 

Overall outlook: It goes without saying that I loved this team. It was like the best of what Hawkeye did in his draft combined with the best of what Worm did in his. Does that make Remote head and shoulders above those two previous teams? No, not really. In a draft/league as good as this one, advantages are fairly subtle given that everyone comes out of the draft with a serviceable, potentially dynamic team. That said, however, I really struggle to find anything about this team that I don't absolutely love and that's an unusual statement. While Wilson is not my cup of tea at QB, he will have his share of big games and with the other aspects of scoring likely locked in, Remote will likely find himself atop the weekly standings on the weeks that he does. This team is not only a contender- they are my preseason favorite to win it all. 

 

Vikings4Ever:

1.04- RB Alvin Kamara, NO
2.09- WR DeAndre Hopkins, Ari. 
3.04- QB Patrick Mahomes, KC 
4.09- WR Tyler Lockett, Sea. 
5.04- RB Kareem Hunt, Cle. 
6.09- RB James Robinson, Jax. 
7.04- WR D.J. Chark, Jax. 
8.09- WR Brandin Cooks, Hou.
9.04- TE Mike Gesicki, Mia.
10.09- WR DeVante Parker, Mia. 
11.04- WR T.Y. Hilton, Ind. 
12.09- RB Alexander Mattison, Min. 
13.04- TE Jared Cook, LAC
14.09- QB DeShaun Watson, Hou. 
15.04- D/ST, Buffalo Bills 
16.09- K Jason Sanders, Mia. 

Analysis: Recognizing that while Alvin Kamara is an outstanding RB and worthy first-round pick, he's a notch below the "big three", Vikes took a detour from his typical team-building pattern and was the first person in the draft to select a QB. The pick gave him a truly dynamic set of "triplets" to build around as Mahomes-Kamara-Hopkins gives you alphas at each of the three main positions. Beyond that solid trio, however, some of the picks puzzled me a bit. For example, I thought Robert Woods would have been a better pick than Tyler Lockett as Lockett's season sort of fell off a cliff last year after getting off to a hot start. Moreover, as much as I like James Robinson, I question his usage this season with both Etienne and Urban Meyer-favorite Carlos Hyde also in the fold. Robinson deserved better, but in the end, that's all I can say about that pick given the uncertainty that surrounds it. Beyond the first six rounds, the picks were pretty hit and miss from my perspective with not a great deal of upside. And, then there's the DeShaun Watson pick- one that could define this team for better or worse as things become more clear. This team is ultimately solid at its core. I'm just not yet sold on the supporting cast. 

Key to No-Hassle Success: That second RB spot looks a bit dicey to me with Hunt and Robinson competing to provide support to/for Kamara. And, with only one other RB on the roster, one of the two simply must come through and give Vikes double-digit production more weeks than not. Similarly, I see two WR3s when I look at Lockett and D.J. Chark and what Vikes needs from one of them is WR2 production to complement Hopkins. In short, after securing a true RB1 and WR1 in the first two rounds. the selection of Mahomes rendered the team without ideal candidates for the RB2 and WR2 roles. Is it worth it to have that kind of uncertainty knowing you've got the most dangerous, explosive fantasy QB in your pocket? That's what Vikes is banking on and he cannot be faulted for taking Mahomes when he did. The question is: Can the likes of Hunt, Robinson, Lockett, and Chark step up? Time will tell. 

Favorite Pick: It took some guts and overcoming no doubt a bit of discomfort to take Mahomes at 3.04. Vikes is not exactly a guy who grabs a QB early in drafts. But, I think the call ultimately made sense and gives him a true superstar at each of the main positions in the lineup. Further in the draft, I really felt that he stole T.Y. Hilton when he did. Hilton's upside far exceeds his draft position and if he ends up being the elusive WR2 this team needs, watch out. Could be the steal of the draft. 

Least Favorite Pick: I just didn't like the Lockett or Robinson picks, but some of that is just personal preference. Lockett's good numbers last year were based in part on a couple of monster games as he disappeared in more games than he showed up, stats-wise. I also don't trust Meyer to use Robinson properly. 

Overall outlook: Barring a rash of injuries, V4E is one of the titans of this annual draft and this league. His track record speaks for itself with multiple championships and a host of teams who ended up being nearly flawless in their construction and design. As such, questioning the composition of this group seems a little foolish to me in some ways even as I must admit that it's not my favortie V4E team over the years and I do question whether or not the right supporting cast for its trio of superstars exists. In the end, if all three stars stay healthy, it is difficult to see this team, even with its perceived flaws, failing to be a top contender. Firepower is firepower and ultimately, this team is founded on a stockpile of it. And, if Robinson and Chark excel in Jacksonville, this team could be fantastic. 

 

Dan:

1.05- RB Nick Chubb, Cle.
2.08- TE Darren Waller, LV
3.05- WR Keenan Allen, LAC 
4.08- RB Melvin Gordon, Den. 
5.05- WR Chase Claypool, Pit. 
6.08- RB Travis Etienne, Jax. 
7.05- WR Courtland Sutton, Den. 
8.08- WR Michael Pittman, Ind. 
9.05- QB Carson Wentz, Ind. 
10.08- QB Baker Mayfield, Cle. 
11.05- RB Darrell Henderson, LAR
12.08- TE Blake Jarwin, Dal.
13.05- K Harrison Butker, KC
14.08- WR Russell Gage, Atl. 
15.05- D/ST, Miami Dolphins
16.08- WR Dyami Brown, Was. 

Analysis: I love the fact that Dan continues to be a part of this draft and league year after year. In a somewhat cookie-cutter world, he is his own man. I know when the June Mock begins, there's not a drafter I have a worse chance of predicting what their moves will be than Dan. Truth be told, this draft was a bit of a mess for me given that I didn't really understand half the time what Dan was trying to do. His QB duo is pretty shaky. His RB2 may not even have the starting job on his own team in Week One. His WRs are in uncertain situations and while Keenan Allen is steady, he is a high-end WR2 in my book, not a guy you should be depending on for the best scores at that position. All of it adds up to a team whose first two picks better be really good and if Chubb and Waller can be in 2021 what they were at the tail end of 2020, Dan may be just fine. There is certainly plenty of youth infused into this team, especially at WR, and if each of those youthful wide-outs (Claypool, Pittman, Sutton) takes a step forward, the team concept Dan was trying to form may just come together after all. This is not a team I would be comfortable with, but I'm not Dan. Like I said before, there's chalkers who make predictable picks...and then there's Dan. 

Key to No-Hassle Success: Where to start...well, a lot of things have to come together. First, Dan spent a very high pick on Darren Waller and he needs to produce. Not just solid numbers, but spectacular ones to make up for the numbers Dan could have gotten from Justin Jefferson or DeAndre Hopkins. The pick of Waller may turn out great, but if Waller ends up being merely a top 4-6 TE, Dan will struggle to find explosive production elsewhere most likely. Claypool, Etienne, and Sutton are all examples of guys who can turn it on big-time on some weeks, but may disappear on others. As such, Waller needs to be great. Elite. Perhaps even average ten points a week or better. Short of that happening, it's hard to see a team whose top QB is Carson Wentz and whose RB2 is Melvin Gordon being a dynamic success on Sundays this season. 

Favorite Pick: It wasn't a sexy pick, but I sort of felt like the selection of Keenan Allen kind of righted the ship for a bit after Waller was taken previously. I was quite surprised that Dan took Allen instead of Najee Harris given that he is a Steelers guy, but I guess waiting until the late fourth to grab your first WR is something Dan was simply unwilling to do. Whatever the case, the Allen pick made sense. And, I also have Chubb as my #5 RB, so I would have made the same first round pick that Dan did in his spot. 

Least Favorite Pick: While I didn't necessarily agree with the Waller pick, there is a chance that it gets justified in a big way. The pick, thus, that I liked least was the Melvin Gordon selection in Round Four. It would surprise no one if Denver begins phasing Gordon out as early as October and that doesn't leave Dan with much to go on at the RB2 spot. I also thought Claypool and Pittman were nabbed a bit early. 

Overall outlook: In the twenty years in which we've been doing this draft, I've seen all sorts of teams be successful. Teams I liked from Day One...as well as teams I thought were constructed in an odd fashion. The latter describes my initial take on this team and I really think looking back on it, I might feel differently if Dan had waited on a TE and taken a different RB than Gordon in the fourth round. Many of his picks down the stretch of the draft have potential and assuming Courtland Sutton can re-gain the promise he showed in 2019, the receiving corps on this team could end up really good. But, that still leaves the unlikely duo of Wentz and Mayfield at QB and Nick Chubb possibly on an island at the running back position. The best that Dan can hope for is that Gordon hangs on to that starting gig in Denver. 

 

White Wonder:

1.06- RB Saquon Barkley, NYG
2.07- WR D.K. Metcalf, Sea. 
3.06- RB Najee Harris, Pit. 
4.07- WR CeeDee Lamb, Dal. 
5.06- QB Lamar Jackson, Bal. 
6.07- WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF 
7.06- TE Kyle Pitts, Atl. 
8.07- RB Gus Edwards, Bal. 
9.06- RB James Conner, Ari. 
10.07- WR Mike Williams, LAC
11.06- WR Antonio Brown, TB
12.07- QB Kirk Cousins, Min. 
13.06- TE Zach Ertz, Phi. 
14.07- RB Devontae Booker, NYG
15.06- D/ST, Kansas City Chiefs 
16.07- K Matt Prater, Ari. 

Analysis: I'm not sure I've seen a team come out of this draft over the years with the upside of this team. Saquon Barkley could be the top RB in the league. D.K. Metcalf has a ridiculously high ceiling. Najee Harris may touch the ball 300+ times this year. CeeDee Lamb could be a top-5 WR, particularly if Amari Cooper experiences any health setbacks. Lamar Jackson may return to the top of the QB heap if he can improve his overall passing numbers. Brandon Aiyuk may be a star in the making. Ditto on Kyle Pitts. In the first seven rounds, Wonder grabbed player after player who individually could exceed their draft positions substantially, value-wise. It was a blitzkrieg of picks aimed at maximizing team potential and giving himself a distinct talent edge in the race for a championship. Beyond Round Seven, picks were more conservative in nature, which may have been a wise decision considering how hard Wonder swung for the fences prior to. There will not be a team in this league in 2021 that is more fun to track on a weekly basis than this one. They're capable of some monster weeks. And, maybe a few duds here and there, although the upside makes that outcome a pretty few and far between venture. 

Key to No-Hassle Success: It's pretty simple. Talent has to prevail in situations in which roadblocks currently exist. Let me explain. Najee Harris has first-round draft pick talent- but he's on a team that couldn't run the football last season to save its life. CeeDee Lamb is a truly dynamic alpha receiver...but he shares targets with two other wide-outs who are well above average at the WR position as well. Metcalf could be hampered by Seattle insisting on being a running team. Kyle Pitts may be limited by the usual learning curve that exists for TEs- among the steepest in the whole league in terms of a position on the field. On paper and based on individual talents, this team should dominate. But, will that individual talent be allowed to shine in situations that are less then ideal at best and cumbersome at worst? This team can cook, but will it be given the freedom to do so? 

Favorite Pick:  There were multiple picks that I loved. Metcalf is my #3 WR behind Hill and Ridley, so I thought that was a steal. Then, I was hoping Najee Harris would fall to me at 3.08. He was a steal at 3.06. Same for Lamb. The first half of this draft was a potential masterpiece and I loved each of the first seven picks for the beautiful picks that they were. 

Least Favorite Pick: I guess this title would go to the James Conner pick as I question his ability to be a real contributor in Arizona, but truth be told, I even liked that pick some. There aren't many picks here that I can even question. This was such a good draft assuming Barkley doesn't disappear for a third consecutive season. 

Overall outlook: The sky is the limit for this team and by that, I mean they could have the league wrapped up by early December. But, in order for that to happen, Saquon Barkley has to perform at a level we've not seen from him since his initial year in the league. He is personally on my "do not draft" list even as I recognize his immense potential. As for Metcalf, Harris, Lamb, Lamar, Aiyuk, and Pitts- I don't see how that level of talent gets held down for long and assuming Barkley does come along for the ride, this team is easily a prime contender. Again, it is rare to see pick after pick have a real shot at outperforming their respective draft spots by quite a bit. That's this team in a nutshell, and I think this group is going to ascend. 

 

Ray Lewis’ Limo Driver:

1.07- RB Jonathan Taylor, Ind. 
2.06- WR Stefon Diggs, Buf. 
3.07- WR Terry McLaurin, Was. 
4.06- RB Miles Sanders, Phi.
5.07- QB Dak Prescott, Dal. 
6.06- TE T.J. Hockenson, Det. 
7.07- RB Raheem Mostert, SF 
8.06- WR Will Fuller, Mia. 
9.07- WR Tyler Boyd, Cin.
10.06- RB J.D. McKissic, Was.
11.07- TE Austin Hooper, Cle.
12.06- WR Marvin Jones, Jax. 
13.07- QB Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. 
14.06- D/ST, Baltimore Ravens 
15.07- RB Nyheim Hines, Ind. 
16.06- K Ryan Succop, TB 

Analysis: Depending upon how you feel about Jonathan Taylor being taken this high in a draft, it's difficult not to like what Ray assembled in the first six rounds. He got a top-5 QB, two unquestioned lead backs on their respective teams, a dynamic 1-2 punch at WR, and a TE that many feel will finish the year top-3 at that position given the lack of other options Detroit has in the passing game. As such, the team is extremely balanced and has ideal RB3 and WR3 prospects to boot in Mostert and Fuller. It's the Taylor pick that will draw fire from some, but if Ray hadn't taken Taylor, what other options did he have? In truth, there is a tier drop that exists after Kamara/Barkley/Chubb for me such that Taylor was probably the best pick even if he's really not in a better position to excel than the next 6-8 RBs off the board. Towards the end of the draft, several of Ray's picks were made for him due to him having to travel and while those picks made sense from an ADP standpoint, they lacked sizzle. There's usually a reason why players drop further than they're projected to and ultimately it's because their ceilings are rather low. Still, there is a lot to like about this team and consider it a very likable team from my vantage point.

Key to No-Hassle Success: I really think Ray did fantastic in rounds 2 and 3 nabbing the duo of Diggs and McLaurin. They're going to be among the league's best in terms of a 1-2 punch at that position. The question marks on the team have to do with the RBs, all of whom could be very good by the way. It's just that neither Miles Sanders nor Raheem Mostert has put together a full season of solid production yet. Both have shown flashes. In saying that, it is my belief that Ray needs one of them to become a top-12 RB (or RB1) in order for this team to ascend to the top level. Quarterback and tight end are also in good hands and the depth at WR is solid even if it isn't flashy. A scenario exists where Taylor ends up in a timeshare with Hines and Mack and is reduced to a RB who should have been valued as a third rounder instead of a first. Sanders may also lose touches in Philly. Ray's RBs must step up to the plate and make solid contact. 

Favorite Pick:  I love Terry McLaurin so much that I would have taken him at 3.08 even though I had already picked 2 WRs to begin my draft. That was a great pick and so was the selection of Prescott who also would have been my pick at 5.08. It is really hard to find fault with anything Ray did in Rounds 1-6, but of all the picks made, I thought McLaurin and Prescott really stood out. I think both are in for big 2021 production. 

Least Favorite Pick: Ray didn't actually choose Tua per se, but I still think he got a pretty questionable backup QB out of the exchange. I am not sold on Tua at all. I also thought McKissic and Hooper were taken too early. McKissic has some value for sure in a PPR league, but in a non-PPR, I thought there were better RB options still left to pick from. 

Overall outlook: This is a team that I am pretty excited about, or would be if it were mine, given how extremely balanced it is from top to bottom with no real weaknesses at any one position. Ray should excel, thus, at each position provided his RBs take that step forward that was previously discussed. Because there is no real weakness in the lineup, health becomes the real concern. Marvin Jones, Tua, and Tyler Boyd are all serviceable options, but they are not at all in the same talent tier as guys like Diggs, Dak, and Will Fuller. In the end, I think this team isn't necessarily a top-3 favorite to win the title, but they are probably the least likely team to implode. If I had to pick one team that I was almost sure would finish top-6 at season's end, this is my group of deplorables. Nice work by Ray here. 

 

Fumbleweed:

1.08- WR Tyreek Hill, KC
2.05- WR Calvin Ridley, Atl.
3.08- RB Chris Carson, Sea. 
4.05- RB David Montgomery, Chi. 
5.08- WR D.J. Moore, Car. 
6.05- WR Julio Jones, Ten. 
7.08- RB Leonard Fournette, TB 
8.05- QB Matt Ryan, Atl. 
9.08- QB Trevor Lawrence, Jax. 
10.05- TE Noah Fant, Den.
11.08- RB Jamaal Williams, Det. 
12.05- QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, Was. 
13.08- WR John Brown, LV
14.05- TE Hunter Henry, NE
15.08- K Younghoe Koo, Atl. 
16.05- D/ST, New Orleans Saints 

Analysis: Only one team emerged from the first two rounds of this year's June Mock without a RB in the fold and it was my team. Had I liked Ezekiel Elliott more than I do, I could have taken the final RB in a tier prior to a significant drop in value that catapults down to Joe Mixon/Cam Akers territory. Instead it was straight VBD in rounds one & two with the top two WRs on my board each being available. Throw in the selections of D.J. Moore and Julio Jones at the 5/6 turn and no team in this draft came out with more firepower and prestige at the WR position. That said, when 4 of your first 6 picks are WRs, the rest of your roster is going to have some deficiencies. The RB duo of Carson and Montgomery could be solid, actually, but there's little room for error with only four RBs on the roster, two of which are in equal to less than equal timeshares. Quarterback is a position of depth, but the quality of the three selected is less than ideal to be sure. All in all, this is a very WR-heavy team based on the fact that great options were left on the table in the early rounds and I was not going to pass on value just to round out my roster. The strength of the other positions is and will remain the big question mark. 

Key to No-Hassle Success: There is little doubt that this team will put up points at the WR position and with multiple options at QB, scoring from that position should be fine as well. The difficulty for this team will be at RB should either Carson or Montgomery get hurt or lose touches as the season progresses. There simply isn't much room for error. Fant or Henry will also need to be TE1 quality in terms of scoring and with Jonnu Smith in the fold also in New England, Fant is probably going to have to fulfill that expectation. The depth at every position sans RB is good and in actuality, it's good at RB as well, but picking up a third quarterback meant not picking up a fifth RB and that may or may not come back to bite. If both Carson and Montgomery finish no worse than 12th in RB points, we might have a pretty successful team on our hands here. 

Favorite Pick: I like Chris Carson, but he feels like something of a consolation prize as I really wanted Najee Harris to fall to me in that spot. The next two rounds, however, allowed me to grab a RB2 and WR3 that I feel will both be dependable in the form of Montgomery and D.J. Moore. I am also very happy with my QB trio even as I missed out on the run of top tier QBs in Round Five. They'll likely all take turns being top point man on the team...and that's o.k. 

Least Favorite Pick: Probably Leonard Fournette. I had to grab a third RB in that spot. Had to. Fournette seemed like the best option, but in truth, he's not a RB3 I feel especially keen about. The rest of my picks in this draft felt like picks I would be proud to write home about, so to speak. That one didn't. It was just a necessity pick that probably lacks a solid ceiling. 

Overall outlook: This team is too unbalanced to be an initial favorite, but if the Zero RB strategy that I have sort of employed ends up bearing fruit, this could be a dynamic team. There is more firepower at WR than you can shake a stick at and that will mean a few weeks in which scores are quite good and quite high. If you believe that rushing prowess is the primary path to a championship, however, this team may not exactly be your cup of tea. Teams with more established runners are going to run laps around my colts on some weeks as it is very unlikely Montgomery will put up the kind of numbers he did late last year and that Carson jumps to a RB1. If you're going to be great at one position in this draft, though, you'll likely be mediocre at best everywhere else. That's essentially what we have here at first glance. 

 

Robb:

1.09- RB Ezekiel Elliott, Dal. 
2.04- TE George Kittle, SF
3.09- WR Mike Evans, TB 
4.04- RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC 
5.09- QB Justin Herbert, LAC
6.04- WR Diontae Johnson, Pit. 
7.09- QB Jalen Hurts, Phi. 
8.04- RB Javonte Williams, Den. 
9.09- WR DeVonta Smith, Phi. 
10.04- RB Zack Moss, Buf. 
11.09- WR Jaylen Waddle, Mia. 
12.04- WR Corey Davis, NYJ
13.09- D/ST, Los Angeles Rams
14.04- TE Cole Kmet, Chi. 
15.09- K Greg Zuerlein, Dal. 
16.04- WR Tyrell Williams, Det. 

Analysis: This draft was sort of all over the map with George Kittle being taken so early, but this is a fun team once you get past the shock of that with lots of youth in key positions including three rookies (Williams, Smith, Waddle) and three second year players (Herbert, Hurts Moss) who have the potential to jump forward this season production-wise (although in fairness, just a repeat of last season would be fine in Herbert's case). That is what you would call youth being served. There is a decent chance also that Clyde Edwards-Helaire will be just as productive as, say, Cam Akers or J.K. Dobbins, so perhaps waiting on that second RB won't hinder this team much at all. Robb tried to hedge his bets at WR by adding a sixth wide-out such that a couple of guys on new teams (Davis, Williams) are available should Smith and Waddle take some time adjusting to NFL life. That may be an effective strategy, but again it places pressure on the RBs on the roster to remain healthy. As with all young teams, this team could be a charging horse down the backstretch, so look for Robb to be more of a factor as the season rolls on. Initially, he'll need Elliott and Evans to carry and they're certainly capable of that. 

Key to No-Hassle Success: Including Cole Kmet, this team has seven players on it with one year of NFL experience or less. That means it's a bunch of talented, but green performers and Robb needs at least four of the seven to produce in ways that go beyond their experience thus far. In the end, although I think he overvalued Kittle, he's likely to get top-3 production out of him and Elliott will rebound some based on having Dak back under center. That means all the youngsters picked in the middle rounds will be front and center in the chase for No-Hassle glory. There is likely to be some inconsistency in the way in which this team scores from week to week as rookies often flash for a week and struggle the next as defenses adjust, but at least Robb can say he didn't play it "safe" with this team. Doing that from the #9 spot probably would have ultimately killed his title chances. As is, the upside makes this journey potentially intriguing. 

Favorite Pick:  Initially, the pick I liked best was Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who is really an early to mid third round talent and plays in a dynamic offense to say the least. I would have picked CEH over David Montgomery (I liked them both) if he had fallen one more spot. I also loved where Robb got rookies Williams and Smith. They were worth the gamble and then some in those spots and their potential for dynamic contribution is very much alive and well. Much like White Wonder, this is a roster bursting at the seams with upside. 

Least Favorite Pick: Ezekiel Elliott is a "do not draft" for me alongside Saquon Barkley, but no one can deny he was probably the best possible choice at 1.09. That leaves Kittle as the pick that really shocked me most as I think he's more of a third rounder with so much QB uncertainty right now in San Francisco. The rest of the picks made sense to me and I recall often thinking Robb was doing a great job as he sniped picks left and right. I just think he's overvaluing Kittle and as such, his team could have been even better. 

Overall outlook: This is ultimately a team that I am fascinated by. Robb's steady commitment to younger players including several rookies will make for a team that could peak in a mighty way come November and December. If Elliott returns to being the player he was in 2020, however, there may not be enough superstar performances on the roster to carry the team beyond middle of the pack, though. The depth at QB and RB are terrific, though, to go along with a stockpile of WR potential, so I don't see this team bottoming out. It's just a question of whether or not a consistent scoring base can be established and maintained. Cool draft here. Very out-of-the-box and gutsy to be sure. 

 

Shovelheadt:

1.10- TE Travis Kelce, KC
2.03- RB J.K. Dobbins, Bal.
3.10- RB Josh Jacobs, LV 
4.03- RB D'Andre Swift, Det. 
5.10- QB Joe Burrow, Cin. 
6.03- WR Tee Higgins, Cin. 
7.10- QB Matthew Stafford, Det. 
8.03- WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pit. 
9.10- WR Curtis Samuel, Was. 
10.03- RB Devin Singletary, Buf.
11.10- TE Jonnu Smith, NE
12.03- WR Christian Kirk, Ari. 
13.10- WR Jalen Reagor, Phi. 
14.03- WR Denzel Mims, NYJ
15.10- K Rodrigo Blankenship, Ind. 
16.03- D/ST, San Francisco 49ers

Analysis: Shovel has always reminded me a little bit of Dan. Not that their strategies for drafting are similar, per se...but in terms of doing his own thing in spite of trends and norms. And, in a world in which productive RBs can be hard to find, it's difficult to argue against securing three potentially good ones in the first four rounds of a draft. The only downside of that when you combine it with the first round selection of Travis Kelce is that you end up with Tee Higgins as your WR1. No offense to Higgins, but that makes this team the weakest WR team in the league no matter how many you add afterwards. The good news is that all other positions are positions of strength, even at QB where Shovel may not have a top-6 option, but where two likely top-10 options do exist and will thus complement one another very well in a best-ball format. The problem for this team is that none of the aforementioned WRs are sure things- not even Higgins who is going to have to share targets with a couple of other talented wide-outs in Cincinnati. In a league where three WR starters are required, grabbing your first at 6.03 is a risky proposition. Then again, so is taking a tight end in the first round. That said, no risk often means no reward. 

Key to No-Hassle Success: Shovel went RB-RB-RB in rounds 2-4 which is typically a pretty good strategy, but the question is: How good are the guys he selected in those spots? All three have talented counterparts on their respective teams that could limit their effectiveness from a fantasy production standpoint. For Dobbins, that's Gus Edwards...for Jacobs, it's Kenyan Drake. And, in D'Andre Swift's case, Jamaal Williams may steal more than a few carries. For Shovel to find success, thus, two of the three really need to establish themselves as the clear go-to back on their NFL teams. Pure timeshares will diminish value such that Travis Kelce and the QB duo will be forced to carry this team on their shoulders given the lack of star power at WR. Two hits on those picks are thus a must. Only one miss is allowed. 

Favorite Pick: Though it thinned him out at WR, Kelce really was the right pick in the first round. No one else can and likely will do what he does at tight end and the fact that Kansas City didn't do much upgrading at WR means another year of heavy production from the veteran tight end. Also loved the Stafford and Samuel picks in Rounds 7 & 9. Moderate investments that could yield significant returns if each can get into a rhythm on their new teams. 

Least Favorite Pick: I don't really dislike any individual pick. I just think one of the RBs selected early probably should have been a WR such that your starting trio at that position isn't Higgins, Samuel, and JuJu Smith-Schuster. It is difficult to imagine that trio making much of an impact on the league although in Higgins's case in particular, I could be wrong. 

Overall outlook: I don't initially envision this team in the upper echelon of rosters or projected starters as I think the 3 top RBs all have their values capped by various factors. In Dobbins's case, I think Lamar and Gus will steal goal line carries. Same for Swift in Detroit and we know that Josh Jacobs will exit the field every time Las Vegas is in a passing situation. All that said, there are some wild cards in the equation and if Burrow to Higgins becomes a big deal, so too could this team. With Kelce outscoring some of the other starting TEs in the league by over 100 points or more, Shovel will have the edge there for sure. The question is whether or not he can maintain the advantage that Kelce gives him at the other positions. It will be fun to see how it unfolds this fall. 

 

Matt’s Eagles:

1.11- RB Aaron Jones, GB 
2.02- RB Cam Akers, LAR
3.11- QB Josh Allen, Buf. 
4.02- WR Amari Cooper, Dal. 
5.11- RB Myles Gaskin, Mia. 
6.02- WR Kenny Golladay, NYG
7.11- WR Jerry Jeudy, Den. 
8.02- TE Dallas Goedert, Phi. 
9.11- RB Trey Sermon, SF
10.02- WR Laviska Shenault, Jax.
11.11- TE Adam Trautman, NO
12.02- QB Justin Fields, Chi. 
13.11- WR Darnell Mooney, Chi. 
14.02- RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE 
15.11- D/ST, New England Patriots 
16.02- K Tyler Bass, Buf. 

Analysis: The defending champion drew no favors in having to navigate this draft from the #11 spot, but he employed a solid strategy in putting together a team that he hopes will allow him to win another title come early January. Traditionally, RB-RB is considered a safe path when picking near the end of the first round and that is indeed the path that Matt chose in selecting Aaron Jones and Cam Akers. Beyond that, however, he saw an opportunity to gain an advantage over his foes by way of adding the consensus #2 QB before turning his attention to wide receiver. Much like Shovel, his decision to wait on wide receiver weakened that unit a bit, but the guys he found in the middle rounds all have tremendous upside, particularly Jeudy and Shenault. And like Robb, Matt was not afraid to make youth a theme in his draft as NINE of his players have a year of NFL experience or less. That makes it a team of upside with a few solid veterans thrown in to anchor the overall effort. You won't find a single player on this team on the downside of his career and that bodes well for the team improving as the season wears on. This is a top-5 team for sure in my book. 

Key to No-Hassle Success: Hate to beat a dead horse, but youth must be served. Guys like Akers, Gaskin, Jeudy, Trautman, Sermon, and Shenault need to make contributions sooner than later in the season as if there are sophomore growing pains in most cases, Matt may fall too far behind to catch up come the second half of the season. Additionally, Amari Cooper needs to maintain the lead role in the Dallas passing attack or at least be 1A to CeeDee Lamb's 1B as Matt is not counting on him to just be a complementary piece, but the lead receiver in the group. Golladay could assume that lead role, which would take pressure off Cooper, but that is not something Matt can bank on given that Golladay is no sure thing on a brand new team. This team has so much upside. It is probably the youngest team I have ever seen from what is typically a conservative spot on the draft board. Question is: Is it too young?

Favorite Pick:  There are many in the middle rounds, where I felt Matt really separated himself from his fellow drafters a bit. Specifically, I loved all the picks in rounds 7-10, a group that included Dallas Goedert, who I feel is ready to be a top-5 TE. Trey Sermon is another guy that Matt stole as his ADP in August will likely look nothing like it does here in June. Finally, Jeudy and Shenault are truly poised for big steps forward. In nabbing them both, Matt set himself up for at least one to probably shine. 

Least Favorite Pick: There wasn't a pick that Matt made that I truly didn't like, but I would not want to make Amari Cooper my first WR taken as his role could diminish some as the season goes on as has already been noted. I love the depth on this WR unit, but they may lack a true WR1 and as such, could run middle of the pack at best this season in terms of points scored from that position. 

Overall outlook: Matt's draft is really a model for what you want to do picking from the #11 spot in a redraft. Go conservative early and then swing big by way of selecting lots of young players with obvious upside. I also like the fact that Matt chose Josh Allen when he did as it cemented the fact that he'll probably have a superstar at least at that one position and a guy who can carry you scoring-wise on more than one occasion during the season. I don't think Aaron Rodgers's presence will impact Aaron Jones all that much as he'll be a workhorse back with a lower YPC with Rodgers gone and receive less carries, but with a higher YPC with Rodgers there. As such, this team has an anchor to go with all the other talent acquired. There is thus little doubt in my mind that Matt will contend once again this season. 

 

ICEMAN:

1.12- RB Joe Mixon, Cin. 
2.01- WR Davante Adams, GB
3.12- WR Adam Thielen, Min. 
4.01- RB Chase Edmonds, Ari. 
5.12- WR Cooper Kupp, LAR 
6.01- QB Aaron Rodgers, GB 
7.12- TE Tyler Higbee, LAR
8.01- QB Tom Brady, TB 
9.12- RB David Johnson, Hou. 
10.01- WR Michael Gallup, Dal.
11.12- RB Tony Pollard, Dal.
12.01- WR Mecole Hardman, KC
13.12- D/ST, Pittsburgh Steelers
14.01- K Justin Tucker, Bal. 
15.12- TE Eric Ebron, Pit. 
16.01- RB Samaje Perine, Cin. 

Analysis: There is an unwritten rule in redrafts that when/if you're picking from the bottom spot in the first round, don't forget to take a few chances along the way. I am pretty certain that ICE took that advice to heart in his draft taking not only Davante Adams at the first turn, but Aaron Rodgers as well at the onset of the sixth. Now, that's faith in action. If the Packers can mend the relationship with Rodgers in time, ICE will have acquired a lethal pitch and catch combination to guide his team, but if not, the two picks could spell doom in a league as competitive as this one. Beyond that obvious storyline, ICE added players of personal preference including a fairly early selection of Chase Edmonds as his RB2 and a second top-10 QB to protect against Rodgers calling it quits. Finally, whereas Matt opted for youth, youth, and more youth, ICE doesn't have a single player on his team with less than three years of NFL experience. That includes David Johnson who will have quite a bit of competition for carries this year on what will be a truly bad NFL team. Nevertheless, it's all eyes on Rodgers with regards to the long-term viability of this team. ICE's shot a title depends on him playing...and playing for the Packers. 

Key to No-Hassle Success: I'm pretty sure we stated it above. More than once in fact. But, going beyond the obvious, the running game must click for this team. That includes Joe Mixon actually staying on the field for an entire season and Chase Edmonds holding off James Conner for primary ball carrier duties in Arizona. Pollard and Perine are merely insurance picks in case of an injury to Elliott or Mixon and David Johnson will be playing from behind constantly, so Mixon and Edmonds must do more than just tread water. They need to surpass the expectations that most experts have for them. The wide receivers on this team are steady, reliable options as are the tight ends, so it's really all about Rodgers and the running game. Someone must step up and be the leader of this team. Adams is capable, but again, his effectiveness is in jeopardy for now. 

Favorite Pick:  Cooper Kupp. There is upside with Kupp getting an upgrade with respect to the guy throwing him the ball. I thought he could have been picked earlier and I was going back and forth at 5.08 between him and D.J. Moore. If Adams is able to perform with all his usual might, Kupp makes for an ideal WR2 and really makes WR the strength of this team despite going running back with the first round pick. I also thought Eric Ebron was a nice pick late in the draft in case Stafford doesn't target Higbee as often as Goff did. 

Least Favorite Pick: I would have passed on Adams, but that may work out great in the end. At the 3-4 turn, I thought both Thielen and Edmonds were taken too early, but I understand taking the guys you like when picking on the turn as they won't make it back to you. I think Jefferson is the clear lead receiver in Minnesota now, making Thielen more of an early fifth round value from my perspective. That's about where I would first consider Edmonds, too. 

Overall outlook: This could be a really dynamic team if Rodgers comes back to Green Bay hungry and at least semi-happy. But, if he doesn't, this team has struggle written all over it. I'm not sure Mixon is capable of being a true stud back, although I would agree that his volume makes him a RB1 on the back-end of that spectrum. It is never easy picking from this spot, particularly when the value sort of dries up/changes mid-third round. There is a chance that ICE gets some surprise positive performances out of some of his later round picks, but with this being a veteran team, upside is capped. Lots of risk contained thus in this draft with uncertain reward. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks Fumble.  I was real fortunate with a few players that fell in my lap.  I wish I would have landed Hopkins and Gibson but that wasn't in the cards.  I looked at Russell as the safest of the 3 QB's I was looking at.  He is cagey and I like his chances of playing all 16 games without injury.  Dak is coming off of a bad injury and Lamar seems like an injury waiting to happen.  Murray was the guy I had my sights on.  Worm got me on Gibson, Murray and the Bucs Def.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As always, thanks for all the work you put in for this draft. :cheers:

I can see the criticism of Lockett & Robinson. If I had to do it over again, I may very well have taken Robert Woods and Mike Davis.

For my WRs, I think they all have decent shots to put up WR2 numbers. Lockett if Seattle can regain their form from early last year, Chark if Lawrence turns out at least decent, Cooks if Watson plays for the Texans this year, Parker if he stays healthy, Hilton if Wentz is even 90% of what he was.

In the end, it's not the favorite team I've drafted. There's plenty of "ifs" on this team. But if Kamara/Hopkins/Mahomes stay healthy, I just need to hit on a few gambles to challenge for the title. In the end, that's all you can really ask for in drafts with this level of competetors.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

needless to say i love you analysis :doublethumbsup:

 

always appreciate the effort you put in, the analysis of all the teams and obviously the running of the NHL. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks, Kirk. I'm totally fine being a little off beat, it against the grai, at times. 

Im not surprised by your analysis. My style alone opens the door yo some questions, and an inconsistent execution this year aided that. 

Couple of notes, regarding thinking.  I knew that the Waller pick would be looked at with raised eyebrows. But . . . I wanted him, because I believe that he's very much ahead of the rest. In my mind, the need is for him to outscore Andrews, et al, by more than Jefferson outscores Allen. That chines down to banking on Herbert, who doesn't have Henry, now. We'll see.  If I thought that Waller would make it to 3.5, I'd reverse it. And I don't know the answer on that one. 

I believe Gordon will have the starting job. I know what theyve got around him. It's different by one from last year, and his year was very solid. But could bite me. No worse than losing the #1 overall pick in the first game.

I like my QBs. I know I'm alone on that thinking, and in okay with that. Baker has a legit coach who is making him grow up, and his second half showed marked improvement. Wentz's only issue is health. And I'm suspicious that that is a Philly problem. Wentz reunited with Reich encourages me.

Everything you stated is fair, and im not debating it. Some of it makes me queasy, too. But I don't know if I can do normal. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Analysis is finished. Thanks again to all for another fantastic June Mock draft! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Fumbleweed said:

Analysis is finished. Thanks again to all for another fantastic June Mock draft! 

Thanks, Fumble.  Really appreciate all the work you put into this!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

             Great work as always, Fumble. I was actually going to post before you wrote up the analysis of my team that the over/under for use of the word "risk" was going to be 5 times. I'll be honest, this was not my finest work this year. Could it work? Sure. I'd give it about a 15% chance of working out. As long as Rodgers comes back to work, I should at least be able to do some damage. I like the quality and the depth of my WR's and QB's, but all it is going to take is one well placed long term injury to one of my RB's to send this team spinning into an uncontrolled dive. We'll see how it goes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for the analysis. Much kinder than I would have been on my team. A bunch of wildcards outside of QB and TE. If I can get a couple WR and 1 RB to emerge, maybe I end up middle of the pack. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×