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AxeElf

Why You Should Draft Tre'Quan Smith in 2021

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Take a look at T Lockett seasons last year, add up his total of his best five games, that would total 111 ff non ppr points , take away 60% from that 111 total and than subtract that total from what Lockett scored last season,  Lockett would have scored 99 points last season for an avg of 6 points per game , now take away that 60% based on Lockett is a better player with a much better Qb. 

So 6 points per game avg at best would make T Smith a wr4 at best.  

I say that’s going to be his best , I think I can  draft 5 better WRs.  

 

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What's the justification for doing any of that.

  1. Using Tyler Lockett as a model
  2. Taking his best 5 games and derating them
  3. Why 60% of the random 5 game derating of the best games

Also if you're going to de-rate his best 5 games for no particular reason, shouldn't you plus-up his worst 5 games some how.  Seems like your just picking a bunch of random things to back in to the conclusion you want.

 

 

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31 minutes ago, nobody said:

What's the justification for doing any of that.

  1. Using Tyler Lockett as a model
  2. Taking his best 5 games and derating them
  3. Why 60% of the random 5 game derating of the best games

Also if you're going to de-rate his best 5 games food no particular reason, shouldn't you plus-up his worst 5 games some how.  Seems like your just picking a bunch of random things to back in to the conclusion you want.

 

 

The other person’s post about 4/80/1 line sometimes.  

I thought that reminds me of Lockett of whom I had the misfortune of owning last season.  

 And by cherry picking at those numbers , they matched perfectly what I was thinking could be T Smith high .  

I like it when someone challenges me, it’s exciting.m

Ok so now my challenge to you, what do you have, I see T Smith at best at times a wr4 and at avg a wr5-6. And since you’ve decided to invite yourself into this very exciting issue in June 28th my question to you is. 

what do you have? 🧐darn I keep forgetting my new favorite toys on the web.  

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1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Take a look at T Lockett seasons last year, add up his total of his best five games, that would total 111 ff non ppr points , take away 60% from that 111 total and than subtract that total from what Lockett scored last season,  Lockett would have scored 99 points last season for an avg of 6 points per game , now take away that 60% based on Lockett is a better player with a much better Qb. 

So 6 points per game avg at best would make T Smith a wr4 at best.  

I say that’s going to be his best , I think I can  draft 5 better WRs.  

 

Did you have a stroke? :wacko:

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29 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

Did you have a stroke? :wacko:

Hey let’s not get personal, I don’t need to tell you if I had a stroke😗

No it’s more like having a good time with numbers, and it worked out perfectly.  

So what do you have.😆

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Just now, weepaws said:

Hey let’s not get personal, I don’t need to tell you if I had a stroke😗

No it’s more like having a good time with numbers, and it worked out perfectly.  

So what do you have.😆

You are an exceptionally strange man

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3 hours ago, weepaws said:

what do you have? 🧐darn I keep forgetting my new favorite toys on the web.  

Saints are pretty consistent.  RBs are going to get about 25% of the target share.  TE is going to get about 15% of the target share, and the wide receivers are going to get the rest.

WR1 is typically getting somewhere around 25-30% of the total target share.  WR2 is getting about 10-15% of that target share, and the rest is spread around.

Let's say the saints will throw somewhere around 550 and 600 times this season based on historical averages and accounting for an extra game and given that they'll likely be losing a lot of games.  Let's call it 575.

So given that history, WR2 should get somewhere around 58 to 85 targets.  Let's give him a 65% catch rate based on historical actuals and 13.5 ypr.  That gives him about 50 catches for about 650 yards or so with a bunch of rounding built in.  Let's say Jameis and TreQuan hit it off so he gives him 20% more production.  That gives him about 60 catches for 875 yards.  

It really comes down to how bad we think the Saints will be this year which will drive how often Jameis throws the ball.  And then you also have to factor in if Winston gets hurt or is benched, Hill will destroy the WR value.

Final prediction: 55 catches for 700 yards and 5 TDs, so that would be 155 PPR points over 17 games or 9.1 ppr points per game, so that's going to be a lot of 3 for 40 yards type games mixed in with some pretty good ones.

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52 minutes ago, nobody said:

Saints are pretty consistent.  RBs are going to get about 25% of the target share.  TE is going to get about 15% of the target share, and the wide receivers are going to get the rest.

WR1 is typically getting somewhere around 25-30% of the total target share.  WR2 is getting about 10-15% of that target share, and the rest is spread around.

Let's say the saints will throw somewhere around 550 and 600 times this season based on historical averages and accounting for an extra game and given that they'll likely be losing a lot of games.  Let's call it 575.

So given that history, WR2 should get somewhere around 58 to 85 targets.  Let's give him a 65% catch rate based on historical actuals and 13.5 ypr.  That gives him about 50 catches for about 650 yards or so with a bunch of rounding built in.  Let's say Jameis and TreQuan hit it off so he gives him 20% more production.  That gives him about 60 catches for 875 yards.  

It really comes down to how bad we think the Saints will be this year which will drive how often Jameis throws the ball.  And then you also have to factor in if Winston gets hurt or is benched, Hill will destroy the WR value.

Final prediction: 55 catches for 700 yards and 5 TDs, so that would be 155 PPR points over 17 games or 9.1 ppr points per game, so that's going to be a lot of 3 for 40 yards type games mixed in with some pretty good ones.

Thanks, so based on him avg 9.1 per game in ppr you see Smith  as  a very low wr4  -high wr5 based on last season ppr. 

See non ppr I see his high at a wr4 low has a wr5-6.  Mmm 

Looks about the same to me.  

Great job thanks for the return n

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3 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

You are an exceptionally strange man

🥳

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Or as originally stated, a WR 5/6 with wr4 upside. I thank you also!😸

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7 hours ago, weepaws said:

Take a look at T Lockett seasons last year, add up his total of his best five games, that would total 111 ff non ppr points , take away 60% from that 111 total and than subtract that total from what Lockett scored last season,  Lockett would have scored 99 points last season for an avg of 6 points per game , now take away that 60% based on Lockett is a better player with a much better Qb. 

So 6 points per game avg at best would make T Smith a wr4 at best.  

I say that’s going to be his best , I think I can  draft 5 better WRs.  

 

So I did this

6 hours ago, nobody said:

What's the justification for doing any of that.

  1. Using Tyler Lockett as a model
  2. Taking his best 5 games and derating them
  3. Why 60% of the random 5 game derating of the best games

Also if you're going to de-rate his best 5 games for no particular reason, shouldn't you plus-up his worst 5 games some how.  Seems like your just picking a bunch of random things to back in to the conclusion you want.

 

 

You sent this

2 hours ago, nobody said:

Saints are pretty consistent.  RBs are going to get about 25% of the target share.  TE is going to get about 15% of the target share, and the wide receivers are going to get the rest.

WR1 is typically getting somewhere around 25-30% of the total target share.  WR2 is getting about 10-15% of that target share, and the rest is spread around.

Let's say the saints will throw somewhere around 550 and 600 times this season based on historical averages and accounting for an extra game and given that they'll likely be losing a lot of games.  Let's call it 575.

So given that history, WR2 should get somewhere around 58 to 85 targets.  Let's give him a 65% catch rate based on historical actuals and 13.5 ypr.  That gives him about 50 catches for about 650 yards or so with a bunch of rounding built in.  Let's say Jameis and TreQuan hit it off so he gives him 20% more production.  That gives him about 60 catches for 875 yards.  

It really comes down to how bad we think the Saints will be this year which will drive how often Jameis throws the ball.  And then you also have to factor in if Winston gets hurt or is benched, Hill will destroy the WR value.

Final prediction: 55 catches for 700 yards and 5 TDs, so that would be 155 PPR points over 17 games or 9.1 ppr points per game, so that's going to be a lot of 3 for 40 yards type games mixed in with some pretty good ones.

And you came up with this, I said that T Smith would post 99 ff points non ppr, based on your own work, you say 100 points.

Thanks. 

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On 6/26/2021 at 12:50 PM, DrG said:

1-2 years ago, Winston had LASIK. So his accuracy might get a slight boost.

I’d think WR3 upside at WR4/5 cost is not bad

I said wr5-6 with wr 4 upside , and you said that above, now two people disagree with you. 

Welcome. 

 

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1 minute ago, nobody said:

Your way was dumb though.

Actually my way was pretty amazing, based on your point total for the same player. 

Thanks. 

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I doubt if anyone will be cutting a top 30 WR in Week 4.

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44 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

I doubt if anyone will be cutting a top 30 WR in Week 4.

That’s true, no one would cut a top 30 wr in week 4, but they would T Smith who’s not going to be a top 30 wr. 

Lets just hope that those ff owners like those that wrongly owned Mixon and A J Green last season and kept those two player the whole season waiting for the pay off that didn’t happen, won’t make the same mistake with T Smith. 

 

 

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10 hours ago, nobody said:

Saints are pretty consistent.  RBs are going to get about 25% of the target share.  TE is going to get about 15% of the target share, and the wide receivers are going to get the rest.

WR1 is typically getting somewhere around 25-30% of the total target share.  WR2 is getting about 10-15% of that target share, and the rest is spread around.

Let's say the saints will throw somewhere around 550 and 600 times this season based on historical averages and accounting for an extra game and given that they'll likely be losing a lot of games.  Let's call it 575.

So given that history, WR2 should get somewhere around 58 to 85 targets.  Let's give him a 65% catch rate based on historical actuals and 13.5 ypr.  That gives him about 50 catches for about 650 yards or so with a bunch of rounding built in.  Let's say Jameis and TreQuan hit it off so he gives him 20% more production.  That gives him about 60 catches for 875 yards.  

It really comes down to how bad we think the Saints will be this year which will drive how often Jameis throws the ball.  And then you also have to factor in if Winston gets hurt or is benched, Hill will destroy the WR value.

Final prediction: 55 catches for 700 yards and 5 TDs, so that would be 155 PPR points over 17 games or 9.1 ppr points per game, so that's going to be a lot of 3 for 40 yards type games mixed in with some pretty good ones.

That's all well and good, but those trends were with Brees who, much like the better QB's in the league, already gets through a read or two before they even snap the ball.  Winston isn't that good.  He doesn't go through his progressions until AFTER the ball is snapped.  He's a 2-read guy.  The only pass targets that Smith gets will be when he's the designed top 1 or 2 target.

I don't think your projections are all that far off, I just think that your high side is a little too high.  I'm thinking 60 to 70 targets is reasonable, so I think you're in the ball park.  I'm not so sure he catches 65% though.  Neither DeSean Jackson or Scott Miller caught over 50%.  I think if you're banking on anything over 55% you're being exceptionally optimistic.  I do however think his y/r could go up.

I'll say he catches 55% of passes thrown his way and averages 15.2 ypr.  I'm thinking 65 targets so... 36 receptions for 550 yards & 5 TD's.  So, about the same as last year, but with a slight uptick.  I'll give him 121 points in 15 games, so 8.1 fpg.  Not too far off from your average.

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Looking at current ADP using CBS (don't trust FFC at the moment), Trequan smith is #204 overall. Some other receivers in his neighborhood are Cole Beasley (185), Henry Ruggs (190), Jaelen Raegor (195), Nelson Agholor (198), Russell Gage (212), and Tyrell Williams (224). Is it possible that Trequan is better than all these wr's you can draft as your late round flier (although I imagine Beasley will move up)? Sure, But it is much more likely one, two or three of these guys are better than Mr. Smith. Like all Lotto tickets it's easy to predict big things. If it hits you can say see,  I told you, look how wise I am. If it doesn't pan out, who will remember or care... 

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13 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Looking at current ADP using CBS (don't trust FFC at the moment), Trequan smith is #204 overall. Some other receivers in his neighborhood are Cole Beasley (185), Henry Ruggs (190), Jaelen Raegor (195), Nelson Agholor (198), Russell Gage (212), and Tyrell Williams (224). Is it possible that Trequan is better than all these wr's you can draft as your late round flier (although I imagine Beasley will move up)? Sure, But it is much more likely one, two or three of these guys are better than Mr. Smith. Like all Lotto tickets it's easy to predict big things. If it hits you can say see,  I told you, look how wise I am. If it doesn't pan out, who will remember or care... 

T Williams is the only wr on that list that I would pass on and take T Smith, I think all the other of those listed WRs will out produce T Smith. 

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It seems like people think Trequan is primarily a deep threat.  I don't think that's accurate.  He does run a lot of fades, but last year they had him doing more slants, and middle of the field stuff.  He wasn't particularly good in those spots, but he wasn't just running go routes all game.

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2 hours ago, jrokh said:

Like all Lotto tickets it's easy to predict big things. If it hits you can say see,  I told you, look how wise I am. If it doesn't pan out, who will remember or care... 

For mortal humans, perhaps, but when it's Axe Elf, minions are out there carefully scribing everything that proceedeth from his pen, around the clock, just waiting and hoping that one day, something Axe Elf predicts doesn't pan out--just so they can be there to say, "HA!  See!  You're just like the rest of the mortals after all!"

And still they wait...

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3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

The only pass targets that Smith gets will be when he's the designed top 1 or 2 target.

lol

Never mind that the QB of the Saints specifically told Smith that he should not quit running, even if he's a decoy route, because the QB of the Saints plans to unload it in his direction if the play breaks down--this guy knows more about the QB of the Saints than the QB of the Saints does.

I always enjoy your weepaws moments.  mmm thanks.

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4 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

lol

Never mind that the QB of the Saints specifically told Smith that he should not quit running, even if he's a decoy route, because the QB of the Saints plans to unload it in his direction if the play breaks down--this guy knows more about the QB of the Saints than the QB of the Saints does.

I always enjoy your weepaws moments.  mmm thanks.

Seems like that would be a very elementary thing to tell a wr, would think that’s always part of the job as a wr, keep running the assigned route, probably the reason why T Smith hasn’t been nor will be anything more than what he has been in the nfl. 

Welcome. 

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2 hours ago, nobody said:

It seems like people think Trequan is primarily a deep threat.  I don't think that's accurate.  He does run a lot of fades, but last year they had him doing more slants, and middle of the field stuff.  He wasn't particularly good in those spots, but he wasn't just running go routes all game.

Because he isn’t really good in those other spots, might that be why most people think of him as a go route type of wr? 

And seems like that would be the best way to categorize his ability.  

Thanks. 

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13 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

For mortal humans, perhaps, but when it's Axe Elf, minions are out there carefully scribing everything that proceedeth from his pen, around the clock, just waiting and hoping that one day, something Axe Elf predicts doesn't pan out--just so they can be there to say, "HA!  See!  You're just like the rest of the mortals after all!"

And still they wait...

More like to laugh at the amusement of the silliness. 

Welcome 

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59 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

lol

Never mind that the QB of the Saints specifically told Smith that he should not quit running, even if he's a decoy route, because the QB of the Saints plans to unload it in his direction if the play breaks down--this guy knows more about the QB of the Saints than the QB of the Saints does.

I always enjoy your weepaws moments.  mmm thanks.

You can never mind that.  He said the same thing to Desean Jackson and he would be running free behind secondaries with no passes to he seen.

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13 hours ago, weepaws said:

Actually my way was pretty amazing, based on your point total for the same player. 

Thanks. 

You’re amazing. You seem like a total loon then you squeeze off a gem like this.

I think you should be studied :cheers:

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58 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

You’re amazing. You seem like a total loon then you squeeze off a gem like this.

I think you should be studied :cheers:

You’ve had 55,765 post and not a single one has ever been on topic, when was the last time you even participated in ff? 

I cant wait for your of topic response, which would than make it 55766 post off topic. 

Thanks. 

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3 hours ago, AxeElf said:

lol

Never mind that the QB of the Saints specifically told Smith that he should not quit running, even if he's a decoy route, because the QB of the Saints plans to unload it in his direction if the play breaks down--this guy knows more about the QB of the Saints than the QB of the Saints does.

I always enjoy your weepaws moments.  mmm thanks.

Again, know what you're talking about before making comments, you'll come across smarter.

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3 hours ago, weepaws said:

Seems like that would be a very elementary thing to tell a wr, would think that’s always part of the job as a wr, keep running the assigned route, probably the reason why T Smith hasn’t been nor will be anything more than what he has been in the nfl. 

Welcome. 

It is.  Brady said it to the Bucs WR's.  The difference is that Winston doesn't actually have the ability to get that far into his progressions if Smith isn't the #1 or #2 option for that play call.

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2 hours ago, nobody said:

You can never mind that.  He said the same thing to Desean Jackson and he would be running free behind secondaries with no passes to he seen.

Yeah, I said as much already.  He'll ignore you too because he wants to come off all brilliant on the 4 big weeks that Smith has this year... when no one started him.

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1 hour ago, weepaws said:

You’ve had 55,765 post and not a single one has ever been on topic, when was the last time you even participated in ff? 

I cant wait for your of topic response, which would than make it 55766 post off topic. 

Thanks. 

Ok, I think Trequan will have have 40/650/3 based on multiplying the number of jelly beans I have left in a bowl by the average YPC of Allen Robinson during that one crazy year he had on the Jaguars and dividing by the number of centimeters that Paul George is tall :dunno:

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7 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

Ok, I think Trequan will have have 40/650/3 based on multiplying the number of jelly beans I have left in a bowl by the average YPC of Allen Robinson during that one crazy year he had on the Jaguars and dividing by the number of centimeters that Paul George is tall :dunno:

So you think he’s even worst than everyone else. 

Congrats your very first post about the topic.  

But it’s almost the start of preseason, so you’ll be gone soon like every season. 

Bye. 

 

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16 minutes ago, weepaws said:

So you think he’s even worst than everyone else. 

Congrats your very first post about the topic.  

But it’s almost the start of preseason, so you’ll be gone soon like every season. 

Bye. 

 

Welcome

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Again, know what you're talking about before making comments, you'll come across smarter.

Axe Elf knows what he's talking about before anyone else does.

Like in this thread, it will probably be close to the end of September before people start to figure out why Axe Elf recommended Tre'Quan Smith.

Axe Elf ALWAYS looks like a fool in the summer and a genius in the fall.  When people begin to understand this, they BECOME smarter.

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2 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Axe Elf ALWAYS looks like a fool in the summer and a genius in the fall.  When people begin to understand this, they BECOME smarter.

'A true Genius admits that he/she knows nothing. - Albert Einstein.

 

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I wonder if Jameis is going to personally make sure he shows how valuable TreQuan is to the team by not throwing to him like he did with DJAX.

https://thepewterplank.com/2018/04/08/tampa-bay-buccaneers-jameis-vows-maximize-djax/

Jameis says sh¡t just to say sh¡t.

On the flip side, it seems like Desean hated Jameis.  Maybe because he's a terrible QB.  Or maybe Jameis didn't like him as well and just didn't want to throw him the ball?  This Trequan thing is playing out very similar to DJAX and Jameis in 2018.  Off season workout hype that turned into very little when the season opened.  They blamed it on chemistry, but Fitzpatrick stepped in and just clicked right away with him.

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So Jameis focusing more on DJax from 2017 to 2018 produced an almost 25% increase in DJax's fantasy points.

We don't have much of a baseline of Jameis with Smith from 2020 (other than the 56 yard TD in the playoffs), but hopefully the new QB's focus on Smith will bump him up at least 25% over his baseline with Brees.

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9 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

So Jameis focusing more on DJax from 2017 to 2018 produced an almost 25% increase in DJax's fantasy points.

We don't have much of a baseline of Jameis with Smith from 2020 (other than the 56 yard TD in the playoffs), but hopefully the new QB's focus on Smith will bump him up at least 25% over his baseline with Brees.

Those extra points were from Fitz

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44 minutes ago, nobody said:

Those extra points were from Fitz

Exactly.

With Fitz: 27 receptions (38 attempts), 552 yards and 3 TD's

With Winston: 14 receptions (36 attempts), 222 yards and 1 TD.

 

The one thing that Smith has going for him that Jackson didn't, is youth/inexperience.  Jackson saw right through Winston's crap, so did everyone else.  There wasn't a single person in that locker room that was sorry the Bucs let him walk.  He's now brought up the playoff game twice... pretending, I guess, that it wasn't a trick play.  Kamara was lined up behind the center and Winston was lined up as a WR.  Kamara took the snap and handed it to Sanders who then pitched it to Winston.  Yeah, Winston threw a great pass... he's very talented, but no one was within 10 yards of Smith.  That doesn't happen on a regular basis.  Oh, and Smith was the second (maybe first), read on that play.  He looked off to the side where Kamara was but he was triple covered, then he saw Smith.  There was also virtually no pass rush as the Bucs weren't even within 7 yards of Winston.  Props to Sean Payton because he totally fooled the Bucs on that play.

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