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LoOnAtIk

Panthers WRs

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On 8/6/2021 at 1:47 PM, AxeElf said:

Yeah, Darnold and Robby had a little thing goin' on in NY, too...  I doubt if Moore is able to regain the lion's share of the targets.  But give me Robby in the 8th round all day.

 

On 8/7/2021 at 5:36 PM, AxeElf said:

And oh yeah, the Panthers have a new QB who used to work so well with Anderson, that the Panthers wanted them both...

This is revisionist history. 

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8 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

I know it might be a tough pill for you to swallow, but its ok to be wrong sometimes.

No, I'm totally fine with you being wrong.  I'm Axe Elf, so I have a lot of experience with other people's errors.

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In 2 seasons, Robby Anderson played in 25 games with Darnold as his QB.  In those 25 games, he totaled 164 targets, 88 receptions, 1353 yards, and 11 TD's.  His 16-game average would be 105 targets, with 56 receptions for 866 yards, and 7 TD's.  From a fantasy perspective, that's what, 184.6 points (11.54 fpg).  In my league, that puts him at WR33 in total points and WR46 in average.

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Some interesting reading.

https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-who-were-the-nfls-most-unlucky-wrs-in-2020

 

Towards the bottom...

Quote

Last season, only 

Moore

 had double-digit uncatchable targets when there wasn’t a defender in his general vicinity. Just five receivers had fewer than 85% of their open targets be considered catchable:

  • Harry (64%)
  • Moore  (77%)
  • Jeudy  (81%)
  • Slayton  (84%)

It’s tempting to crown Moore for being so underutilized both when open as well as in the end zone.

 

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16 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Some interesting reading.

https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-who-were-the-nfls-most-unlucky-wrs-in-2020

 

Towards the bottom...

 

This is good stuff. Confirms my rank for DJ Moore but I also might have to slide Jeudy up my rankings a bit as well. I love Courtland Sutton but they didn't draft Jeudy that early to play 2nd fiddle to him. Especially coming off major knee surgery.  

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2 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

This is good stuff. Confirms my rank for DJ Moore but I also might have to slide Jeudy up my rankings a bit as well. I love Courtland Sutton but they didn't draft Jeudy that early to play 2nd fiddle to him. Especially coming off major knee surgery.  

I don't know about Jeudy.  The guy that made Moore less productive than what he should be, is now one of Jeudy's QB.  Jeudy's situation didn't improve.  Now, if you're in a keeper/dynasty league, Jeudy is ok because next year they'll have a new QB.

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Mmm hard to say at this time that D Moore qb situation improved.  

I wonder in 2018/2019 where or if Anderson might have made that list with Moore new Qb Has is Qb at that time frame. 

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I think Jeudy is going to be in the same situation as last season, expect he now will have less targets if Sutton can stay healthy, bad Qb situation more competition for targets and two Rbs. 

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On 8/10/2021 at 9:01 AM, TBayXXXVII said:

I don't know about Jeudy.  The guy that made Moore less productive than what he should be, is now one of Jeudy's QB.  Jeudy's situation didn't improve.  Now, if you're in a keeper/dynasty league, Jeudy is ok because next year they'll have a new QB.

Bridgewater wasn’t great but he still produced 2 serviceable WRs in Carolina last year.

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Not two serviceable WRs, three serviceable wr, people forget that C Samuel avg one more point  per game then the third best wr on the Panthers last season, and the third wr was, Anderson.  

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18 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Not two serviceable WRs, three serviceable wr, people forget that C Samuel avg one more point  per game then the third best wr on the Panthers last season, and the third wr was, Anderson.  

Anderson first in receptions, targets and second in yards. Samuel did have more receptions than Moore though.

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Last 11 games of last season, you know going into ff playoff time. 

Anderson avg 6.7 points per game. 

D J avg 10:14 points per game. 

Samuel avg 11.05 points per game. 

Anderson played in 11 games after week 5, and was also last in yards and td scored after week five, Samuel and DJ played in ten games. 

Anderson was last.  

Thanks. 

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10 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

Bridgewater wasn’t great but he still produced 2 serviceable WRs in Carolina last year.

Yeah, but I'm sure their better line and weapons along with experience, had a lot to do with that as well.  Moore, Anderson, and Samuel are/were WAY better Jeudy, Patrick, and Hamler.  Both Jeudy and Hamler were rookies and Patrick was heading into his 27 year old season and only had 40 receptions in his career.  Last year was Locke's first year as a starter and Bridgewater's been in the league for 8 years (sure, he missed a couple years due to injury, but it's not like he wasn't apart of the team).  Bridgewater massively under utilized the talent he had to work with.

Basically, I don't think Bridgewater is really all that much of an upgrade, if he even is one, over Locke.  I think both QB's are really lacking, but I think Locke has a much better chance to improve than Bridgewater and currently, the Denver corp is still worse than what Carolina's was.

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7 hours ago, weepaws said:

Last 11 games of last season, you know going into ff playoff time. 

Anderson avg 6.7 points per game. 

D J avg 10:14 points per game. 

Samuel avg 11.05 points per game. 

Anderson played in 11 games after week 5, and was also last in yards and td scored after week five, Samuel and DJ played in ten games. 

Anderson was last.  

Thanks. 

Didn’t realize your league only played the last 11 games.

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24 minutes ago, Serenity Now said:

Didn’t realize your league only played the last 11 games.

I think his point is, and it's a valid one, that after teams figured out the Panthers/Bridgewater (5 games), Anderson wasn't as productive.

If you take Anderson's first 5 games and project that for a season, you're looking at a 115 catch season for 1565 yards (3 TDs).  If you take his last 11 and project that for 16 games, you're looking at an 83 catch season for 866 yards (3 TDs).  Meaning, people remember the first 5 and see the final numbers and disregard the fact that this makes up only one-third of his season.  Basically saying that faith in Anderson is fools gold.

His weekly ppg average over the first 5 (in ppr), was 18.2 and over the final 11 games, we was 11.97.  The last two-thirds of the season, he was a WR4.  In that same time frame, Samuel averaged 16.85 (WR12), and Moore averaged 14.54 (WR24).

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I think the Broncos wr situation is a tough one to draft, I don’t like either Qb, and I agree Bridgewater isn’t a real upgrade over Locke, but I feel the same way about the Panthers Qb situation when it comes to Darnold taking over for Bridgewater. 

Bridgewater is truly in a tougher situation this season then he was last season when he was surrounded with much better talent.  

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I think with Samuel being gone, Anderson and Moore are the only two reliable receivers on the team.  I think both will be fine, even with Darnold.  I think the biggest problem that Darnold had was Adam Gase.  Yes, he has other issues, but those may be able to be fixed with proper coaching.  We saw what Tannehill has become after Gase, so I'm willing to wait and see what happens with Darnold before I call him bad or a bust.

In Denver, I'm fine with drafting Jeudy or Hamler in my keeper league because I think this is the last year that Denver has this kind of QB situation.  If Locke shows he's an NFL QB, he'll be the guy going forward.  If he doesn't, they'll ride the season out with Bridgewater and make sure that Rodgers is their guy next year.  If I'm in a re-draft league, I'm holding off on Jeudy and Hamler until they're my WR4.  I don't have faith in their situations for them to be my starter or flex guy.

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13 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I think his point is, and it's a valid one, that after teams figured out the Panthers/Bridgewater (5 games), Anderson wasn't as productive.

If you take Anderson's first 5 games and project that for a season, you're looking at a 115 catch season for 1565 yards (3 TDs).  If you take his last 11 and project that for 16 games, you're looking at an 83 catch season for 866 yards (3 TDs).  Meaning, people remember the first 5 and see the final numbers and disregard the fact that this makes up only one-third of his season.  Basically saying that faith in Anderson is fools gold.

His weekly ppg average over the first 5 (in ppr), was 18.2 and over the final 11 games, we was 11.97.  The last two-thirds of the season, he was a WR4.  In that same time frame, Samuel averaged 16.85 (WR12), and Moore averaged 14.54 (WR24).

Again, this isn’t about which player is better or will put up better stats, it’s about value. Anderson by your stats is going at his floor of last year. Moore is going at or above his best stretch last year. Samuel got a boost when cmc went down.

Based on draft price and opportunity cost, Moore will need to produce at a reasonably high level to pay off for all the decent rbs and wrs you’re passing on. Anderson doesn’t come with that price tag or expectation level. He could be what he was the first five weeks and be a bargain, what he was the last 11 and still be a reasonable pick, or somewhere between and be a decent complimentary piece.

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Last season Anderson was a high wr3 based on avg per game, and from what I’ve seen, he’s being drafted right around low wr3 high wr4.

D J was a mid wr2 last season on avg, and his being drafted as a mid wr3.   

Moore just needs to pay off as a flex player , but one that can achieve wr 2 avg.  

If you draft Anderson as a low wr3 or a high wr4 ,  or getting him at par based on his career avg including his days with Darnold. 

I see more value with Moore , plus more upside.  

Thanks. 

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9 hours ago, weepaws said:

Last season Anderson was a high wr3 based on avg per game, and from what I’ve seen, he’s being drafted right around low wr3 high wr4.

D J was a mid wr2 last season on avg, and his being drafted as a mid wr3.   

Moore just needs to pay off as a flex player , but one that can achieve wr 2 avg.  

If you draft Anderson as a low wr3 or a high wr4 ,  or getting him at par based on his career avg including his days with Darnold. 

I see more value with Moore , plus more upside.  

Thanks. 

We must have different data on where Moore is going.

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20 minutes ago, Serenity Now said:

We must have different data on where Moore is going.

What data do you have?  I've read that Moore is going about 2.5 rounds sooner, about 30 picks, before Anderson.  I think Moore's upside/ceiling is higher than Anderson's and is definitely worth the investment.  Personally, I think Anderson at 30 picks behind Moore, is a bit of an overpay.

These are the 4 guys going ahead of Anderson...

  • DeVonta Smith
  • Courtland Sutton
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster
  • D.J. Chark

These are the 4 guys going after him...

  • Deebo Samuel
  • Antonio Brown
  • Laviska Shenault Jr.
  • Tyler Boyd

 

I'd take all of them over Anderson because I think Anderson's expected return is no higher than mid-WR3, most likely a solid WR4.  All 8 of those guys I listed have higher ceilings, in my opinion.  Every one of them have a shot at being WR2's.  I'd rather have Jarvis Landry 30 picks later, than Anderson.

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45 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

What data do you have?  I've read that Moore is going about 2.5 rounds sooner, about 30 picks, before Anderson.  I think Moore's upside/ceiling is higher than Anderson's and is definitely worth the investment.  Personally, I think Anderson at 30 picks behind Moore, is a bit of an overpay.

These are the 4 guys going ahead of Anderson...

  • DeVonta Smith
  • Courtland Sutton
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster
  • D.J. Chark

These are the 4 guys going after him...

  • Deebo Samuel
  • Antonio Brown
  • Laviska Shenault Jr.
  • Tyler Boyd

 

I'd take all of them over Anderson because I think Anderson's expected return is no higher than mid-WR3, most likely a solid WR4.  All 8 of those guys I listed have higher ceilings, in my opinion.  Every one of them have a shot at being WR2's.  I'd rather have Jarvis Landry 30 picks later, than Anderson.

I see Moore going around wr 20-22, which is right around where I see the last viable rbs going. I prefer grabbing one of them for a flex over just about any wr going in that area.

I have no problem with you preferring those guys over Anderson, cause I think all are viable options. Samuel gets injured too often for me, but he’s the only one I’ll skip over. My feeling is, if I walk away from the draft with a deep rb core with one in my flex, one solid wr, and two or three wrs from that group, I’ll be fine with it. I think WR is the easiest position to find startable players in the mid season. Whether that’s through the waiver wire, or trade. Rb is the most difficult so I’ll load up on them in my draft and figure out my wr2 as the year goes on.

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5 minutes ago, Serenity Now said:

I see Moore going around wr 20-22, which is right around where I see the last viable rbs going. I prefer grabbing one of them for a flex over just about any wr going in that area.

I have no problem with you preferring those guys over Anderson, cause I think all are viable options. Samuel gets injured too often for me, but he’s the only one I’ll skip over. My feeling is, if I walk away from the draft with a deep rb core with one in my flex, one solid wr, and two or three wrs from that group, I’ll be fine with it. I think WR is the easiest position to find startable players in the mid season. Whether that’s through the waiver wire, or trade. Rb is the most difficult so I’ll load up on them in my draft and figure out my wr2 as the year goes on.

My views are similar, but my approach is different.  I agree that I'd rather have a flex RB over a WR.  The thing is, I apparently draft that player before you.  Moore is going in the 5th round.  I generally have 3 RB's in the first 4 rounds, therefore, I see Moore as a solid pick at that point.

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45 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

My views are similar, but my approach is different.  I agree that I'd rather have a flex RB over a WR.  The thing is, I apparently draft that player before you.  Moore is going in the 5th round.  I generally have 3 RB's in the first 4 rounds, therefore, I see Moore as a solid pick at that point.

I think he's an okay pick in round 5, but I'm not actively searching for him or really any WR in this area. I suppose Moore just represents the apathy I feel towards WR's in this tier because I believe it's an easily streamable, deep position, with WR's like Anderson going a couple rounds later.  If I get my 3 RB's and 1 WR like I hope, I still don't feel the need to grab a low WR 2 in round 5 if I can get a top player at a different position. I'm not saying I'll avoid Moore, he just probably won't be on my teams because my strategy this year doesn't involve WR's in these rounds very often.

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

These are the 4 guys going ahead of Anderson...

  • DeVonta Smith
  • Courtland Sutton
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster
  • D.J. Chark

These are the 4 guys going after him...

  • Deebo Samuel
  • Antonio Brown
  • Laviska Shenault Jr.
  • Tyler Boyd

I'd take all of them over Anderson because I think Anderson's expected return is no higher than mid-WR3, most likely a solid WR4.

There is one thing that separates Robby Anderson from all of those names (except Juju), and that is that Robby Anderson actually WAS a top-20 WR last year in the same system.

So you can chase a possible WR2 breakout, or you can draft a known top-20 WR in Anderson; your call.

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What I see is DJ going late 5th round and Anderson mid to late seventh round. 

Im not so sure I like either one that much based on Darnold being the Qb , but late 5th round in a 14 team non ppr, if I don’t have three Rbs my then I’m not going to have a fantasy season.  

So DJ as my wr2 would be a good pick for me.  

Players go real quick in a 14 team league.  

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Seems like this conversation is more about how people are handling mid round receivers, than it is about Moore vs Anderson. I believe it's the easiest position to find start worthy players, so I tend to pivot towards a set it and forget it QB or TE, over this tier of WR.

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No wrong ideal, you can get the same value at Qb or te in the 5-6 round as one can in the double digit rounds. 

 

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7 minutes ago, weepaws said:

No wrong ideal, you can get the same value at Qb or te in the 5-6 round as one can in the double digit rounds. 

  

You can also find WR's in the double digit rounds that will out produce WR's in round 5 and 6.

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1 hour ago, Brutal Brutus said:

I think he's an okay pick in round 5, but I'm not actively searching for him or really any WR in this area. I suppose Moore just represents the apathy I feel towards WR's in this tier because I believe it's an easily streamable, deep position, with WR's like Anderson going a couple rounds later.  If I get my 3 RB's and 1 WR like I hope, I still don't feel the need to grab a low WR 2 in round 5 if I can get a top player at a different position. I'm not saying I'll avoid Moore, he just probably won't be on my teams because my strategy this year doesn't involve WR's in these rounds very often.

I'm simply saying that Moore at that spot is reasonable value in the 5th.  Also that I don't necessarily think that Anderson is a better value than Moore, 30 picks later.  I'm not really advocating taking Moore in the 5th.  I got him, I wouldn't be upset.  I do agree with you that WR's are deep, but I think based on lineups and rosters, I'd argue that QB's and TE's are just as deep and that taking a WR2 there is purely, drafter's preference.

Just as examples, Hockenson and Andrews are going at relatively the same spot as Moore while Goedert and L. Thomas are going 20+ picks later.  I'd rather have Moore and either Goedert/Thomas than Anderson and Hockenson/Andrews.  I'd also rather have Moore and Stafford (who's 20+ picks later than Prescott), than Prescott and Anderson.

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46 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I'd also rather have Moore and Stafford (who's 20+ picks later than Prescott), than Prescott and Anderson.

ERROR 404 Championship not found.

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Yea but if I take let’s say Moore as a late round 5 pick, and let’s say another wr I pick later starts to out produce him, I still can slot DJ in my flex spot and have a player that will avg more points per game then those te, plus a wr that based on avg was a mid wr2 last season, so now I have three starting WRs, winner   

And qbs are a dime a dozen, just take a late pick of Stafford or even Cousins and stream a long. 

 

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I’ve played the qb streaming game for years, and the last few have left me chasing too many point too often. The ceiling and floors are lower and the chances of hitting the floors is higher. I’m done with it. To each their own, but I’m done streaming a qb who puts up 20-22 while Mahomes, Murray, Rodgers and others drop 30+ against me.

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27 minutes ago, Serenity Now said:

I’ve played the qb streaming game for years, and the last few have left me chasing too many point too often. The ceiling and floors are lower and the chances of hitting the floors is higher. I’m done with it. To each their own, but I’m done streaming a qb who puts up 20-22 while Mahomes, Murray, Rodgers and others drop 30+ against me.

It takes some nads and luck to be successful at full streaming mode.

But that doesn't mean you can't wait on a QB and get a perfectly competitive one later in the draft--and if he bombs, there will probly be one or two on the waiver wire that will keep you in games.  Maybe when he plays the Steelers, you pick up the guy playing the Cowboys or something, but no, just hopping QBs from one week to the next is often a disaster.

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38 minutes ago, Serenity Now said:

I’ve played the qb streaming game for years, and the last few have left me chasing too many point too often. The ceiling and floors are lower and the chances of hitting the floors is higher. I’m done with it. To each their own, but I’m done streaming a qb who puts up 20-22 while Mahomes, Murray, Rodgers and others drop 30+ against me.

Yup, me too

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2 hours ago, AxeElf said:

It takes some nads and luck to be successful at full streaming mode.

But that doesn't mean you can't wait on a QB and get a perfectly competitive one later in the draft--and if he bombs, there will probly be one or two on the waiver wire that will keep you in games.  Maybe when he plays the Steelers, you pick up the guy playing the Cowboys or something, but no, just hopping QBs from one week to the next is often a disaster.

I believe it’s possible and even likely to find one late or post draft, but it wasn’t until I found Hurts that my team started winning consistently. Before that, I was switching qbs nearly every week based on matchup and whiffing far too often. I’m not saying I jump on a top 5 qb in the draft, but there are roughly 10 I feel decent about as my qb and I’m making sure I’ll be walking away with one of them, as opposed to years past where I just waited.

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Nothing is more fun then winning your league and taking all the cash while streaming qbs and tes and kickers and def. 

Only had to do so last season for a few weeks, and then I heard that Herbert will be the Chargers starting Qb, and he was drafted and then dropped and I scooped him up, winner. 

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On 8/6/2021 at 12:47 PM, AxeElf said:

Yeah, Darnold and Robby had a little thing goin' on in NY, too...  I doubt if Moore is able to regain the lion's share of the targets.  But give me Robby in the 8th round all day.

Looks like they have big plans for Anderson; they just signed him to a 2-year, $29.5 million extension.  (Moore is making about $3.5 mil this season.)

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Anderson will only be what he has been. 

Just because they over paid him doesn’t mean he won’t be want he has been. 

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