***Wagering thread***

[WhiteWonder 2,733]

On 3/30/2025 at 4:26 PM, BiffTannen said:

Agreed. Plate appearances are 3-5 vs touches your rb/wr is going to get. If you do it, post it. I would like to see how it plays out. 

I hit all three of my parlays last night (womens NCAA, MLB and NBA)  all profit boosted  so i'll probably throw a $1-2 lotto ticket on the "2+ total base" prop tonight for giggles.... Will post it here so we can laugh when 5/20 are correct .   Again, the other shitty thing with baseball is that because of all the staggered starting times, I think ever being offered a cash out will be near impossible. You'd have to have a bunch of legs hit before the 10 PM window starts

[BiffTannen 943]

1 hour ago, Mookz said:

Well fock me sideways.  That one's up to -125 on DK. 

I guess it's reassuring when the odds swing so far in your favor after you bet. 

-110 at DK now. 

I'm shopping books now for o 5.5 at plus money so I can win no matter what. 

[Alias Detective 1,398]

1 hour ago, WhiteWonder said:

so you think it's easier for a top MLB hitter to get a hit in a game than it is for a top NFL star to score a TD?  That was my original proposed question to guys in this thread. I just don't see it, let alone having it be 2-3x easier.... That's why I used the Judge vs. Barkley comparison. Barkley gets fed the ball, Judge gets 4-5 at bats before you factor in intentional walks and such.   Also so many little things like pinch hitting / pinch running even for very good MLB players based on matchup analytics. 

Yes

In a typical MLB game, teams average around 9.23 runs per game, which translates to roughly 18.46 hits between both teams. 

[WhiteWonder 2,733]

39 minutes ago, Alias Detective said:

Yes

In a typical MLB game, teams average around 9.23 runs per game, which translates to roughly 18.46 hits between both teams. 

I’m Assuming those are real stats, and again I realize the books know what they are doing… but how many of those hits come from lesser players, pinch hitters you wouldn’t wager on and what’s the spread among the 18 batters on each team? 
 

like of course there are more hits on average in an MLB game than there are TDs in an NFL game… but where is the equity coming from? 
 

so I guess my feeling and why I question it is because it seems far easier to pinpoint which NFL players will be accumulating the touchdowns. Or at the very least, closer than the odds suggest. 

[WhiteWonder 2,733]

1 hour ago, WhiteWonder said:

I hit all three of my parlays last night (womens NCAA, MLB and NBA)  all profit boosted  so i'll probably throw a $1-2 lotto ticket on the "2+ total base" prop tonight for giggles.... Will post it here so we can laugh when 5/20 are correct .   Again, the other shitty thing with baseball is that because of all the staggered starting times, I think ever being offered a cash out will be near impossible. You'd have to have a bunch of legs hit before the 10 PM window starts

Soto, Vientos, Judge, Chisholm, Carroll, K.Marte, Seager, De La Cruz, Caminero, B.Lowe, Witt, India, Chourio, Tatis, Machado, Chapman, Rooker, Betts. 
 

$1 to win $664k

[BiffTannen 943]

3 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

Soto, Vientos, Judge, Chisholm, Carroll, K.Marte, Seager, De La Cruz, Caminero, B.Lowe, Witt, India, Chourio, Tatis, Machado, Chapman, Rooker, Betts. 
 

$1 to win $664k

Hits or 2 plus total bases?

[WhiteWonder 2,733]

13 minutes ago, BiffTannen said:

Hits or 2 plus total bases?

2 plus total bases. 
the same parlay as just “to get a hit” would pay 560 dollars. 
 

you could also take a few lesser name hitters and likely get a similar pay out at only 15 legs for the 2+ total bases. 

[Mookz 1,345]

22 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

Soto, Vientos, Judge, Chisholm, Carroll, K.Marte, Seager, De La Cruz, Caminero, B.Lowe, Witt, India, Chourio, Tatis, Machado, Chapman, Rooker, Betts. 
 

$1 to win $664k

Seems like an absolute lock on paper. 

[Alias Detective 1,398]

Although there are few scores in the NFL they are buy the same people.  It’s like the 80/20 rule.  

[BiffTannen 943]

6 hours ago, BiffTannen said:

Both. I start looking at multiple books when I first wake up. I don't play anything past -130 

My only play today is Sandy Alcantara u 5.5 +115, but that number was gone hours ago. 

 

 

Winner. 
 

season record: 15-6

[WhiteWonder 2,733]

2 hours ago, Mookz said:

Seems like an absolute lock on paper. 

Or a flushed dollar bill

[Mookz 1,345]

3 hours ago, BiffTannen said:

Winner. 
 

season record: 15-6

The over was part of MLB Network's "parlay of the day".  The host was like "Alcantara over 5.5?  Heck yes, give me that all day!" 

 

2 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

Or a flushed dollar bill

Meh, the taxes on that would have been a ###### anyway.  Who wants to deal with that? 

[BiffTannen 943]

7 hours ago, Mookz said:

The over was part of MLB Network's "parlay of the day".  The host was like "Alcantara over 5.5?  Heck yes, give me that all day!" 

 

Meh, the taxes on that would have been a ###### anyway.  Who wants to deal with that? 

They said over because he had 7 on opening day. I said under because the guy averages less than 1 k/inning over the course of his career and is coming off surgery. I was surprised they let him stay for 91 pitches last week. 

Alcantara will likely be lined at 4.5 his next start and I won't play either way. He will then have another 7ish strikeout game and push his number back to 5.5 and I will smash the under. It's all a cat and mouse cycle and since the books no longer offer even numbers on prop plays, they can be beat. 

[BiffTannen 943]

@Mookz I'm still looking things over, but grab these before the juice moves in the wrong direction.

Mackenzie Gore o 5.5 +100

Yusei Kukuchi u 5.5 -105

 

 

[BiffTannen 943]

Freddy Peralta u 5.5 +130

Cole Ragans o 6.5 -110

 

[listen2me 23 1,873]

I dont know a ton about baseball betting.  But walks are considered a base on some books?  

I threw in a dumb parlay of baseball yesterday.   Just reading and clicking.  Hit 3 legs.  The 4th a 2nd leg of Yankees game was Zona wins first 5 innings.  Yankees scored 3 in like the 4th to lose that leg but ended up losing the game.  

May just pop in here and follow some of your K props if I want to bet baseball again.  

[BiffTannen 943]

30 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

I dont know a ton about baseball betting.  But walks are considered a base on some books?  

I threw in a dumb parlay of baseball yesterday.   Just reading and clicking.  Hit 3 legs.  The 4th a 2nd leg of Yankees game was Zona wins first 5 innings.  Yankees scored 3 in like the 4th to lose that leg but ended up losing the game.  

May just pop in here and follow some of your K props if I want to bet baseball again.  

I've never come across a book that counts a walk as a total base, but they might. I don't typically play batter props. 

[WhiteWonder 2,733]

2 hours ago, listen2me 23 said:

I dont know a ton about baseball betting.  But walks are considered a base on some books?  

I threw in a dumb parlay of baseball yesterday.   Just reading and clicking.  Hit 3 legs.  The 4th a 2nd leg of Yankees game was Zona wins first 5 innings.  Yankees scored 3 in like the 4th to lose that leg but ended up losing the game.  

May just pop in here and follow some of your K props if I want to bet baseball again.  

i've never known walks to count as total bases.  So my silly 2+ total base parlays need guys to be hitting doubles or home runs or, obviously, two singles. 

SP strikeouts are a good route to go.  I prefer to find unders I like since you just never know when a pitcher get pulled earlier than anticipated or even be cruising but not missing bats hat day. 

[BiffTannen 943]

Reds game getting ready to start. I passed 8400 ZYN reward points this morning. It's a good day. 

[WhiteWonder 2,733]

13 hours ago, Mookz said:

Meh, the taxes on that would have been a ###### anyway.  Who wants to deal with that? 

 

right?

I went 7/18  

[Mookz 1,345]

4 hours ago, BiffTannen said:

@Mookz I'm still looking things over, but grab these before the juice moves in the wrong direction.

Mackenzie Gore o 5.5 +100

Yusei Kukuchi u 5.5 -105

 

 

Fock, I missed all the early games, but riding with Gore. 

[BiffTannen 943]

Cole Ragans 

[BiffTannen 943]

The jap and Peralta aren't looking good. 

[BiffTannen 943]

1-3 today 

16-9 for the season. 
 

only a few games tomorrow so likely back on the horse Friday 

[BiffTannen 943]

Kevin Gausman u 5.5 

Brandon Pfaadt u 5.5 

Jack Flaherty u 6.5 

 

[BiffTannen 943]

Tylor Megill u4.5

[BiffTannen 943]

Zach Littell u 4.5

[WhiteWonder 2,733]

3 hours ago, BiffTannen said:

 

Jack Flaherty u 6.5 

 

i played this. The line was trash at -136 but I had a 30% boost on strikeout over/unders so let's see. 

[BiffTannen 943]

Mitch Keller u 5.5 

Erick Fedde u 4.5 

[WhiteWonder 2,733]

[BiffTannen 943]

3 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

i played this. The line was trash at -136 but I had a 30% boost on strikeout over/unders so let's see. 

3-1 so far and you picked the one I lost. 

[BiffTannen 943]

 

 

8 hours ago, BiffTannen said:

Kevin Gausman u 5.5 

Brandon Pfaadt u 5.5 

Jack Flaherty u 6.5 

 

 

6 hours ago, BiffTannen said:

Tylor Megill u4.5

 

6 hours ago, BiffTannen said:

Zach Littell u 4.5

 

5 hours ago, BiffTannen said:

Mitch Keller u 5.5 

Erick Fedde u 4.5 

 6-1 day 

Probably would have went 7-0 had WhiteWonder not announced he was tailing Flaherty. 

 

Season: 22-10

[BiffTannen 943]

Goofed off this morning so these are already juiced to hell. 
 

Brady Singer u 5.5

Taj Bradley u 5.5

Mitchell Parker o 3.5

[BiffTannen 943]

No sweat parlay - Auburn ML/Houston ML +550

[jerryskids 6,783]

Won earlier Florida -2.5

Late game:

Duke -4.5

Under 138.5

[WhiteWonder 2,733]

On 4/4/2025 at 5:25 PM, BiffTannen said:

3-1 so far and you picked the one I lost. 

That was my only loss thankfully that day. Won women’s parlay again and a 3 leg nba but I had a feelings soon I picked Flaherty under it was a loss. Chicago is so bad. 
 

didn’t hit much yesterday aside from Walter Clayton over points… and Houston beating Duke did win me my small bracket with friends 

[jerryskids 6,783]

17 hours ago, jerryskids said:

Won earlier Florida -2.5

Late game:

Duke -4.5

Under 138.5

Oof.  I was spending those sweet winnings for most of the game.  Duke sure shat the bed at the end.   

[BiffTannen 943]

0-3 Saturday drops the season recorded to 22-13. 

 

Masters week. Probably won't be looking at baseball much.

[BiffTannen 943]

Bryson DeChambeau Rd1 u 71.5

 

[WhiteWonder 2,733]

I need a nice top X play to put a 30% boost on....  Henley top 10 is +290, Cam Smiff is +320, Reed and Straka are +410  all before the boost. Those are catching my eye.   Or a safer top 20 on someone I like a lot like Spaun at +210.