Stock Market bubble - will burst - it did, and recovered twice. ***Official thread***

[Hawkeye21 2,458]

17 hours ago, seafoam1 said:

You are still working 40 hours in your 50s. 

What's wrong with that?

[tubby_mcgee 702]

On 12/27/2025 at 1:50 PM, Horseman said:

Not necessarily true.  And that only works if you're DCA'ing in and not trying to time the market.  Even with a big downturn there are always more upturns you miss out on if youre waiting.  Always.    

I find the best thing to take advantage of big swings is reballncing.  Effectively increasing your number of shares in both ups and downs.  

 

Well. True.  Timing the market doesn't work, so if you have cash on hand, you should put it in the market now is what you're saying (rather than waiting for that "burst".  And that is true. 

I do have cash on hand, quite a bit, but I'm going against logic and keeping it as cash unless it crashes.  I guess I like the peace of mind of some cash. But if there's a crash, I'll choose the market over the peace of mind.  

[tubby_mcgee 702]

18 hours ago, Horseman said:

How close are you to the 4% rule? 

Now I know your age it's easy to project a spending plan and how much you'd need to put away to retire at 55, 60, 62, 65 etc.  

4% is 25 times your yearly spend.  All I need is "I have 20x my yearly spend" for example.  

Can't you change your yearly spend amount if you retire? 

[Horseman 2,756]

31 minutes ago, tubby_mcgee said:

Well. True.  Timing the market doesn't work, so if you have cash on hand, you should put it in the market now is what you're saying (rather than waiting for that "burst".  And that is true. 

I do have cash on hand, quite a bit, but I'm going against logic and keeping it as cash unless it crashes.  I guess I like the peace of mind of some cash. But if there's a crash, I'll choose the market over the peace of mind.  

I'd agree with you a lot if interest rates stayed high, but, it seems like they are going away. That means your cash is going to lose against inflation.  

[Horseman 2,756]

1 hour ago, tubby_mcgee said:

Can't you change your yearly spend amount if you retire? 

Of course. But you need to know what your spend is now first and foremost.  After tracking my costs for a decade I know exactly what the spend is to live my current lifestyle. 

Then when planning for retirement, applying the 4% rule, or projecting a cash flow analysis, you can adjust it to fit a different lifestyle (spend) in retirement if you want. Want to take more trips, add in another 20K a year for that. Want all new vehicles add in a lump sum of 100K the first year, etc etc.  

You can also go the other direction. If you're planning to be retired for 30 years there is a very good likelihood that you won't be spending as much when youre 80 plus years old.  You could ratchet your spend down.  Most people don't because it's conservative, but hey, if it gets you to retirement a couple years sooner it might be worth it to take a closer look. 

[easilyscan 1,092]

3 hours ago, Horseman said:

2025 Returns (Time-weighted TWR):

401K – 20.36%

Roth IRA(F) – 23.99%

HSA – 22.20%

Brokerage Account – 16.86%

Roth IRA(ME) – 16.63%

Wife's accounts are combined and treated as one allocation (IRA, Roth IRA and SEP) – 19.30%

Summary:

Total 2025 TWR – 19.5%

For Comparison SPX – 17.5%

Conclusion:

How does a 75-25 investment strategy beat the S&P by 2.0%? Two primary reasons:

1 – Some ill-advised timing of the market. Equities bought during the brief downturn in April. For example my cost basis of AMSN purchased in April is $176.00. That's a gain of over 30% today.

2 – Re-balancing. I re-balanced 5 times this year, 4 times during the volatility experienced in the first half of the year. Effectively increasing the number of shares all around.

If you look at the brokerage account the return is below the S&P as you'd expect. I wasn't able to sell and buy to re-balance as effectively as I did in the retirement accounts because of tax implications.

 

Well done!

 

[thegeneral 3,728]

13 hours ago, nobody said:

Critical point.  Can't set a goal without a target.

My site (Schwab) uses a tool that defaults it at 70% of salary. Google and the like have that in the middle of conservative versus normal. 

More is better

[Horseman 2,756]

22 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

My site (Schwab) uses a tool that defaults it at 70% of salary. Google and the like have that in the middle of conservative versus normal. 

More is better

70% of salary, and all the other defaults for lazy people, are like throwing a dart at a dartboard blind and drunk.   You should know and understand your spend exactly.  There isn't really a good excuse not to. You spend it, all you have to do is track it. 

[thegeneral 3,728]

Just now, Horseman said:

70% of salary, and all the other defaults for lazy people, are like throwing a dart at a dartboard blind and drunk.   You should know and understand your spend exactly.  There isn't really a good excuse not to. You spend it, all you have to do is track it. 

I’m lazy and adaptable.

Right now it says if I do this to 60 I’m at 120% so I’m feeling good.

[Horseman 2,756]

1 minute ago, thegeneral said:

I’m lazy and adaptable.

Right now it says if I do this to 60 I’m at 120% so I’m feeling good.

That's about all those tools are good for.  

[thegeneral 3,728]

Just now, Horseman said:

That's about all those tools are good for.  

I mean it’s just a calculator. You put in the stuff and viola.

[Horseman 2,756]

7 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

I mean it’s just a calculator. You put in the stuff and viola.

All I use to know exactly my real spend, not a shot in the dark, is a simple excel spreadsheet.  Input each receipt and viola.  Now you know exactly.  

Here you go. Find the link in the article that gives you the free excel version. 

https://www.thebalancemoney.com/pearbudget-free-budget-spreadsheet-1293816

 

 

 

[thegeneral 3,728]

2 minutes ago, Horseman said:

All I use to know exactly my real spend, not a shot in the dark, is a simple excel spreadsheet.  Input each receipt and viola.  Now you know exactly.  

Here you go. Find the link in the article that gives you the free excel version. 

https://www.thebalancemoney.com/pearbudget-free-budget-spreadsheet-1293816

 

 

 

Appreciate it. But realistically I’ll never do this even though it’s a good idea…Just being honest

If you give me 100k a year, I’ll spend it. If you give me 75k then that’s what I’ll spend.

 

[Horseman 2,756]

Just now, thegeneral said:

Appreciate it. But realistically I’ll never do this even though it’s a good idea…Just being honest

If you give me 100k a year, I’ll spend it. If you give me 75k then that’s what I’ll spend.

 

That's not true, just more excuses.  You wouldn't have any investments if that were true.  

[thegeneral 3,728]

2 minutes ago, Horseman said:

That's not true, just more excuses.  You wouldn't have any investments if that were true.  

It’s not an excuse it’s my reality

I have always worked and for past 25 years have had this job. Makes the saving easy, they take it out I don’t even think about it. The bank takes out more for IRA. The Credit Union takes out money for my slush fund account, etc. Easy to setup.

Like most on here, I assume, love sports gambling, fantasy football, baseball and the like. Stock market and the investments is just another type of that for me. Buy stuff I like mostly, maybe make some risky bets here and there with a small chunk.

My site has this little percentage thing that lets you see State by State where you rank with your “salary colleagues” so that’s also fun.

I do pay more attention to than most of my co-workers I have realized when the subject comes up. But when it comes to doing this stuff you are taking about, I have no interest. 

 

 

[Horseman 2,756]

3 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

It’s not an excuse it’s my reality

I have always worked and for past 25 years have had this job. Makes the saving easy, they take it out I don’t even think about it. The bank takes out more for IRA. The Credit Union takes out money for my slush fund account, etc. Easy to setup.

Like most on here, I assume, love sports gambling, fantasy football, baseball and the like. Stock market and the investments is just another type of that for me. Buy stuff I like mostly, maybe make some risky bets here and there with a small chunk.

My site has this little percentage thing that lets you see State by State where you rank with your “salary colleagues” so that’s also fun.

I do pay more attention to than most of my co-workers I have realized when the subject comes up. But when it comes to doing this stuff you are taking about, I have no interest. 

 

 

My final piece of advice for you is this:   You may not like it, but, there are two things in life you shouldn't halfass.  Halfass it at your job if you can get away with it.  Be a casual golfer because you know you'll never go pro. Fine.  But, be a man and never ever halfass your marriage or your finances. 

[thegeneral 3,728]

46 minutes ago, Horseman said:

My final piece of advice for you is this:   You may not like it, but, there are two things in life you shouldn't halfass.  Halfass it at your job if you can get away with it.  Be a casual golfer because you know you'll never go pro. Fine.  But, be a man and never ever halfass your marriage or your finances. 

I’ll be fine. Been married 28 years too

[lickin_starfish 2,043]

13 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

I’ll be fine. Been married 28 years too

You must be keeping his stomach full and his balls empty.

[thegeneral 3,728]

3 minutes ago, lickin_starfish said:

You must be keeping his stomach full and his balls empty.

Things the homos think about

NTTAWWT!

[nobody 2,952]

8 hours ago, thegeneral said:

My site (Schwab) uses a tool that defaults it at 70% of salary. Google and the like have that in the middle of conservative versus normal. 

More is better

That's fine if you make about what you spend, but if you make say 50% more than you actually need, it'll have you working longer than you need to.  

You don't have to track every dollar you spend like horseman, but you should be able to look at statements and understand what you spend and then adjust it up or down based on specifics of your retirement.  Without that your just floating and that's not a plan.  It's your life.  Drifting into retirement doesn't seem like a great plan.

[thegeneral 3,728]

9 hours ago, nobody said:

That's fine if you make about what you spend, but if you make say 50% more than you actually need, it'll have you working longer than you need to.  

You don't have to track every dollar you spend like horseman, but you should be able to look at statements and understand what you spend and then adjust it up or down based on specifics of your retirement.  Without that you’re just floating and that's not a plan.  It's your life.  Drifting into retirement doesn't seem like a great plan.

Thanks, The 70% number is a good of a place to work from when you read why that percentage is picked. I’d be fine with that. More is better though so I’ll continue to work to that. 

Yeah I understand roughly what I spend each month. I’m not tracking it in a spreadsheet.

Money to bridge gap between accessing 401k, pension, and then SS is the next thing to work on. Was too slow to do this instead was piling it all into the former. I’m addressing this now.