TrailGuy 554 Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Hardcore troubadour said: Yes. It’s been coming for a while. If you knew what you were talking about you would know. Corrections happen all the time. Not one person in 2022 knew that we would have 3 years of strong growth followed by a correction. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hardcore troubadour 15,191 Posted February 21 Michael Burry started betting against the mortgage market in 2005. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TrailGuy 554 Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said: Michael Burry started betting against the mortgage market in 2005. Yes because he believed that there would be a collapse and eventually he was right. If he KNEW what was going to happen he would have started shorting in 2008. He almost lost everything but eventually he was right. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hardcore troubadour 15,191 Posted February 21 1 minute ago, TrailGuy said: Yes because he believed that there would be a collapse and eventually he was right. If he KNEW what was going to happen he would have started shorting in 2008. He almost lost everything but eventually he was right. He did know what was going to happen. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
easilyscan 908 Posted February 21 Asset allocation is important. Have a large taxable account, 2 different IRAs, a 401(k), & an HSA at Fidelity. Managed a small gain yesterday, & only down slightly today. $10,065.75 (-0.57%) Added Powell Industries POWL @ $176.00 " Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
HB Localboy 122 Posted February 21 I'm not going to read all 25 pages of this but if there is one thing I can tell you.... The market will easily hit 50k soon and 100k before Trump is done. Gold will be well over 3k/oz Silver will be well over 50/oz Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
easilyscan 908 Posted February 21 4 minutes ago, HB Localboy said: Gold will be well over 3k/oz It's almost 3K an ounce today.....lol Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
HB Localboy 122 Posted February 21 Just now, easilyscan said: It's almost 3K an ounce today.....lol True! A few years ago when it was $1200/oz I told all my friends to buy gold. They laughed! Silver was $12/oz at the time. Now Gold is $2900/oz Now Silver is $30/oz Almost triple your money in 3 years. When they find out the Gold Vault at Fort Knox is empty the price of Gold could sky rocket! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mookz 1,341 Posted February 21 30 minutes ago, easilyscan said: Asset allocation is important. Have a large taxable account, 2 different IRAs, a 401(k), & an HSA at Fidelity. Managed a small gain yesterday, & only down slightly today. $10,065.75 (-0.57%) Added Powell Industries POWL @ $176.00 " I think you just doxxeded your account balance, but luckily I'm not smart enough to do the math. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
easilyscan 908 Posted February 21 16 minutes ago, HB Localboy said: True! A few years ago when it was $1200/oz I told all my friends to buy gold. They laughed! Silver was $12/oz at the time. Now Gold is $2900/oz Now Silver is $30/oz Almost triple your money in 3 years. When they find out the Gold Vault at Fort Knox is empty the price of Gold could sky rocket! Even though I don't own any gold, I'm impressed by the fact that it continues to go up even though the vast majority of 'influential' people around the world always put it down. Would be sweet if Fort Knox turned out to be empty! I went on a JFK 1964 1/2 dollar buying spree on eBay in 2017 ended up with a little over 1400 coins @ an average cost of around $6.70 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
easilyscan 908 Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, Mookz said: I think you just doxxeded your account balance, but luckily I'm not smart enough to do the math. It's huge. I've consolidated almost all of my investments/money at Fidelity over the years. Makes my taxes so easy as all it takes is one click and it downloads everything into H&R Block tax software. On the other hand, I sometimes think I shouldn't have so many of my eggs in one basket. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thegeneral 3,092 Posted February 22 19 hours ago, HB Localboy said: I'm not going to read all 25 pages of this but if there is one thing I can tell you.... The market will easily hit 50k soon and 100k before Trump is done. Gold will be well over 3k/oz Silver will be well over 50/oz Based on your betting predictions I moved 75% of my assets into cash! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
easilyscan 908 Posted February 22 4 hours ago, thegeneral said: Based on your betting predictions I moved 75% of my assets into cash! Nothing wrong with making predictions, but I definitely avoid it. I went to Jackpot Junction Casino at least once a week from 1995 to 2000. One of the waitresses I knew really well, greeted me with this one day in late 1999. "which brokerage firm is the best, I'm going to invest everything in Internet stocks and retire in a year" “J. P. Morgan tells the story of how he would get his shoes shined every Wednesday at the same shop around the corner from his office. One day the shoe shine attendant asked him if he and his friends could buy some stock through Morgan’s brokerage. The three friends had about $40—a lot of money in 1929. Morgan politely refused, hurried back to his office, and ordered that his company was not to have a single share of stock on its books by the end of the day. Morgan simply asked, “If the shoe shine boys are buying stocks, who else is left?” Of course, the 1929 stock market crash was only a few days away, and Morgan looked like a genius. He was not a genius; he noted that the order flow was likely running out on the buy side. It wasn’t his army of analysts that showed him that. It was a public investor.” Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hardcore troubadour 15,191 Posted February 22 27 minutes ago, easilyscan said: Nothing wrong with making predictions, but I definitely avoid it. I went to Jackpot Junction Casino at least once a week from 1995 to 2000. One of the waitresses I knew really well, greeted me with this one day in late 1999. "which brokerage firm is the best, I'm going to invest everything in Internet stocks and retire in a year" “J. P. Morgan tells the story of how he would get his shoes shined every Wednesday at the same shop around the corner from his office. One day the shoe shine attendant asked him if he and his friends could buy some stock through Morgan’s brokerage. The three friends had about $40—a lot of money in 1929. Morgan politely refused, hurried back to his office, and ordered that his company was not to have a single share of stock on its books by the end of the day. Morgan simply asked, “If the shoe shine boys are buying stocks, who else is left?” Of course, the 1929 stock market crash was only a few days away, and Morgan looked like a genius. He was not a genius; he noted that the order flow was likely running out on the buy side. It wasn’t his army of analysts that showed him that. It was a public investor.” I thought that was JFK’s father with the shoe shine story? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
easilyscan 908 Posted February 22 26 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said: I thought that was JFK’s father with the shoe shine story? It's from google AI. Seems like I heard a similar story from the 20s, but instead of a shoeshine guy, it was a taxi driver. Maybe that was JFK's father ? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hardcore troubadour 15,191 Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, easilyscan said: It's from google AI. Seems like I heard a similar story from the 20s, but instead of a shoeshine guy, it was a taxi driver. Maybe that was JFK's father ? Maybe. I’m sure it’s someone’s story Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thegeneral 3,092 Posted February 22 1 hour ago, easilyscan said: Nothing wrong with making predictions, but I definitely avoid it. I went to Jackpot Junction Casino at least once a week from 1995 to 2000. One of the waitresses I knew really well, greeted me with this one day in late 1999. "which brokerage firm is the best, I'm going to invest everything in Internet stocks and retire in a year" “J. P. Morgan tells the story of how he would get his shoes shined every Wednesday at the same shop around the corner from his office. One day the shoe shine attendant asked him if he and his friends could buy some stock through Morgan’s brokerage. The three friends had about $40—a lot of money in 1929. Morgan politely refused, hurried back to his office, and ordered that his company was not to have a single share of stock on its books by the end of the day. Morgan simply asked, “If the shoe shine boys are buying stocks, who else is left?” Of course, the 1929 stock market crash was only a few days away, and Morgan looked like a genius. He was not a genius; he noted that the order flow was likely running out on the buy side. It wasn’t his army of analysts that showed him that. It was a public investor.” HB “bet 10%” of his retirement savings on KC in the SB so juts messing with him. But yeah no one knows anything for sure it’s all guesses, well except time in versus timing is the safe play. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
easilyscan 908 Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, thegeneral said: HB “bet 10%” of his retirement savings on KC in the SB so juts messing with him. I remember that thread, and knew you were just messing with him. When I said "Nothing wrong with making predictions, but I definitely avoid it" I was referring to him stating that the Dow would be at 100 K by the time Trump was done. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Horseman 2,438 Posted February 22 On 2/21/2025 at 4:22 PM, Mookz said: I think you just doxxeded your account balance, but luckily I'm not smart enough to do the math. Divid by .57, times 100. But I don't think he cares, I think he posted a screenshot of it the other day. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mookz 1,341 Posted February 23 2 hours ago, Horseman said: Divid by .57, times 100. But I don't think he cares, I think he posted a screenshot of it the other day. Oh, good. I was a little worried because in Beer's dividend thread he was playing it closer to the vest. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
easilyscan 908 Posted February 25 On 2/22/2025 at 7:37 PM, Mookz said: Oh, good. I was a little worried because in Beer's dividend thread he was playing it closer to the vest. No worries. The total account value is a little over 1.7 million. That's because I have almost all my money @ Fidelity. A large taxable account started in 1993, 2 IRAs, a 401(k), a checking account & an HSA. The market averages have been doing very poorly since last Thursday, especially the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 which are both heavily weighted in tech stocks (AKA the magnificent 7) Sector rotation. Investors getting out of tech & into defensive stocks like food, utilities, etc. This has happened many times over the past 2 decades, but it's always short-lived. We'll see if this turns out the same way. At times like this, asset allocation can be comforting. I have direct exposure to 3 of the 4 magnificent 7 stocks, but I also have a diverse mix of other types of asset classes. When the markets flying high, my portfolio lags the indexes, on the other hand when we have bigly down days, my loss % is far less than a tech heavy portfolio. Crypto, & the related shares of micro strategy MSTR that I own, have been crushed recently. The markets, just like other areas, brings out truly delusional people. I bought stock in a regional bank approximately 7 years ago. That turned out to be a mistake as after 2 years it had gone nowhere, so I sold. When I sell a stock, I always keep it in a watchlist. Here's a recent comment on that particular stock. Malcolm 21 February, 2025 Red light ON for banks. Market's tanking faster than blank through a goose. Thanks MAGA for your economic REVERSE miracle. Can't wait for the real inflation from tariffs to kick in. I mean, we've only alienated the ENTIRE WORLD except for Saudi Arabia and Russia ... why? They produce NOTHING except oil and we already have plenty. Why is our strongest ally now the failing authoritarian nation state, Russia -- weird no? Trailing 12 month EPS for this bank beginning Q4 - 2021 $2.63 $2.47 $2.28 $2.18 $1.93 $1.78 $1.51 $1.25 $0.88 $0.78 $0.76 Flat -$0.30 Can you see the trend here ? Yet this guy blames it all on the 'current' president. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thegeneral 3,092 Posted February 26 4 hours ago, Cdub100 said: Slowly.... Someday We are still up like 15% over past year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
easilyscan 908 Posted February 26 Nvidia is the last of the magnificent 7 to report. ETA about three minutes. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/nvda?mod=mw_quote_switch Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gepetto 1,340 Posted February 27 On 7/18/2024 at 1:34 PM, Gepetto said: I just moved all of my Roth 401K out of mutual funds to safe investments. My retirement has been all in bonds since July 19, 2024. My rate of return is 2.85% since then. Had I stayed in Mutual Funds the funds I was in gained in that same time period from 5 - 7%, so easily seen as a mistake, but I like the lowered risk in what I see as the stock market is in a bubble still. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nobody 2,640 Posted February 27 4 hours ago, easilyscan said: Nvidia is the last of the magnificent 7 to report. ETA about three minutes. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/nvda?mod=mw_quote_switch I haven't read any updates, but they must've had a fantastic quarter to only be down 2% afterhours in this environment. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
easilyscan 908 Posted February 27 4 minutes ago, nobody said: I haven't read any updates, but they must've had a fantastic quarter to only be down 2% afterhours in this environment. You're right, It was a very good report. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/26/nvidia-nvda-earnings-report-q4-2025.html Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Horseman 2,438 Posted February 27 19 hours ago, Gepetto said: My retirement has been all in bonds since July 19, 2024. My rate of return is 2.85% since then. Had I stayed in Mutual Funds the funds I was in gained in that same time period from 5 - 7%, so easily seen as a mistake, but I like the lowered risk in what I see as the stock market is in a bubble still. Expected interest rates to drop faster than they are? 50-50 mix would have at least outpaced inflation. Money accounts are still making 4% Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gepetto 1,340 Posted February 27 1 hour ago, Horseman said: Expected interest rates to drop faster than they are? 50-50 mix would have at least outpaced inflation. Money accounts are still making 4% This is a retirement account through my employment. I don't have a choice to put it in CDs in order to get the 100% company match, it's either bonds and/or mutual funds. Yea, good idea, a mix of both is something to consider. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Horseman 2,438 Posted February 27 19 minutes ago, Gepetto said: This is a retirement account through my employment. I don't have a choice to put it in CDs in order to get the 100% company match, it's either bonds and/or mutual funds. Yea, good idea, a mix of both is something to consider. Yeah all employer funds are not created equal. Fidelity sweep cash accounts are paying 3.6% right now. I'd also ask of they have self directed option. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
easilyscan 908 Posted February 27 On 2/21/2025 at 11:21 AM, Hardcore troubadour said: He did know what was going to happen. He sure did. I can't help myself. Anytime that meltdown comes up in conversation, I can't help but share the following, so those uninformed people, who think it was solely the fault of wall street & banks, hear the truth & know that while the banks were guilty, it wouldn't have been possible without the 2 government-sponsored enterprises known as Fannie and Freddie. Yes, banks all around the country approved subprime mortgages. Why would they do this ? Because they knew shortly after, they could hand them off to Fannie and Freddie. (Fannie and Freddie are government sponsored enterprises) A government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) is a private company that Congress created to help specific sectors of the US economy access credit. GSEs are quasi-governmental entities that are regulated and supported by the government. Problem is, they weren't regulated, at least not as closely as they should have been. This is covered in the link below. Even worse, they were publicly traded companies. In my humble opinion, no GSE should be publicly traded. I've posted the following link several times here at the forum. For anyone who really wants to know the truth about how and why we got to that point, I've never seen a better/more articulate/unbiased article, that's written in plain English. https://www.backwoodshome.com/the-meltdown-and-the-bailout-why-how-and-what-they-mean/ Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Horseman 2,438 Posted February 27 20 minutes ago, easilyscan said: He sure did. I can't help myself. Anytime that meltdown comes up in conversation, I can't help but share the following, so those uninformed people, who think it was solely the fault of wall street & banks, hear the truth & know that while the banks were guilty, it wouldn't have been possible without the 2 government-sponsored enterprises known as Fannie and Freddie. Yes, banks all around the country approved subprime mortgages. Why would they do this ? Because they knew shortly after, they could hand them off to Fannie and Freddie. (Fannie and Freddie are government sponsored enterprises) A government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) is a private company that Congress created to help specific sectors of the US economy access credit. GSEs are quasi-governmental entities that are regulated and supported by the government. Problem is, they weren't regulated, at least not as closely as they should have been. This is covered in the link below. Even worse, they were publicly traded companies. In my humble opinion, no GSC should be publicly traded. I've posted the following link several times here at the forum. For anyone who really wants to know the truth about how and why we got to that point, I've never seen a better/more articulate/unbiased article, that's written in plain English. https://www.backwoodshome.com/the-meltdown-and-the-bailout-why-how-and-what-they-mean/ 100% 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
easilyscan 908 Posted March 1 Added 20 shares of Google at 170 & 100 shares of first solar @ 135 today. FSLR is in my opinion, the best US solar company. Problem is, it's been cratering over the possibility of the current administration eliminating solar subs. Nothing is certain, but I believe it's getting very close to a price and multiple, that even if the subs were discontinued, it would still be fairly priced. Anyone else do any bottom fishing this week ? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thegeneral 3,092 Posted March 1 31 minutes ago, easilyscan said: Added 20 shares of Google at 170 & 100 shares of first solar @ 135 today. FSLR is in my opinion, the best US solar company. Problem is, it's been cratering over the possibility of the current administration eliminating solar subs. Nothing is certain, but I believe it's getting very close to a price and multiple, that even if the subs were discontinued, it would still be fairly priced. Anyone else to do any bottom fishing this week ? I keep going back for more MSFT. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
easilyscan 908 Posted March 1 1 hour ago, thegeneral said: I keep going back for more MSFT. For reasons unknown, I've never held Microsoft directly ? Was pleasantly surprised to see that Fidelity is giving me a download of TurboTax Premier federal + state for $5.39 Rolling a Vanguard 401(k), into an IRA at Fidelity late last year must've made me a big enough whale to qualify for that freebie 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Horseman 2,438 Posted March 1 1 hour ago, easilyscan said: For reasons unknown, I've never held Microsoft directly ? Was pleasantly surprised to see that Fidelity is giving me a download of TurboTax Premier federal + state for $5.39 Rolling a Vanguard 401(k), into an IRA at Fidelity late last year must've made me a big enough whale to qualify for that freebie I want. How did you get that, email? What's the title of the offer? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
easilyscan 908 Posted March 1 6 minutes ago, Horseman said: I want. How did you get that, email? What's the title of the offer? It was towards the bottom of my summary page. https://www.imagebam.com/view/MEZZ8ZF Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Horseman 2,438 Posted March 1 5 minutes ago, easilyscan said: It was towards the bottom of my summary page. https://www.imagebam.com/view/MEZZ8ZF I don't have a "summary" page. Mine is called "portfolio". I don't see it anywhere so I'll message them and ask. Thanks. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
easilyscan 908 Posted March 1 Just now, Horseman said: I don't have a "summary" page. Mine is called "portfolio". I don't see it anywhere so I'll message them and ask. Thanks. You're welcome. It actually isn't called summary. It's the page that opens up after I login. 'All Accounts' Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TrailGuy 554 Posted March 1 Tony need a coupon to do his own taxes Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
