Stock Market bubble - will crash

[thegeneral 2,877]

2 hours ago, easilyscan said:

Stocks I Like. Goes without saying to do your own research. 

Crocs: (CROX) Never a fan of their footwear, but they seem to have a cult like following.

I've held a modest amount in an IRA for about 4.5 years & I started accumulating shares in my taxable & HSA accounts under $110

 

I like to look at the 3 most basic fundamentals 1st.

Top line: revenues - Bottom line: EPS - Net profit margin's

Revenues look great, although the year over year growth has slowed the last 7 quarters.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/CROX/crocs/revenue

 

EPS looks great as well, with one caveat that I'll get back to you later.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/CROX/crocs/eps-earnings-per-share-diluted

 

Margins are down from the all-time high of 35% mid 2021 (the zero interest rate go go days) but at 23%, still very impressive.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/CROX/crocs/profit-margins

 

Debt to equity ratio, price/sales, etc. look very reasonable

 

*Caveat* Q-4 2024 EPS was $6.25. The previous quarterly high was $4.93 in Q2 2021. I figured that had to be inflated by a one time gain of some kind, so I'll bump that down to $4.25 which would bring the TTM EPS down to $13.88. Divide that by the current share price of $90.72 & you come up with a multiple of 6.42

 

A Google search (will crocs be negatively impacted by the new tariffs) confirmed my suspicions as to why it's selling at such a low multiple.

Yes, Crocs is likely to be negatively impacted by the new tariffs. This is partly because Crocs produces a significant portion of its products in countries like Vietnam, which are subject to higher tariff rates. Additionally, Crocs has warned staff to closely manage expenses & has adjusted internal incentive plans due to the volatility caused by the tariffs. 

 

Take the worst case scenario, & say profits drop by a full 25% for 2025 

$13.88 Minus 25% = $10.41

Divide this by the current share price & it would still only be selling at 8.60 x earnings.

Thoughts ?

I do love their squishy flip flops and buy a new pair every year or so. BUY!

[The Psychic Observer 495]

$1.4T erased today because of a trump post attacking Powell.  What a retard.

[Hardcore troubadour 14,903]

9 minutes ago, The Psychic Observer said:

$1.4T erased today because of a trump post attacking Powell.  What a retard.

It’s gone? Forever? Where did it go? 

[The Psychic Observer 495]

2 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

It’s gone? Forever? Where did it go? 

Why am I not surprised that a guy that thinks that high profile people don't use credit cards and that the bravery of drowning kittens protects farms doesn't understand how the stock market works?

[Hardcore troubadour 14,903]

11 minutes ago, The Psychic Observer said:

Why am I not surprised that a guy that thinks that high profile people don't use credit cards and that the bravery of drowning kittens protects farms doesn't understand how the stock market works?

You said it was “erased”. It’s gone? Forever? Explain it to me.  Thanks. 

[The Psychic Observer 495]

1 minute ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

You said it was “erased”. It’s gone? Forever? Explain it to me.  Thanks. 

Yes it's gone.  Will it come back?  Depends on if Trump tries to remove Powell.  Could take a while.  Maybe read a book.

[Hardcore troubadour 14,903]

13 minutes ago, The Psychic Observer said:

Yes it's gone.  Will it come back?  Depends on if Trump tries to remove Powell.  Could take a while.  Maybe read a book.

So it’s not erased. Use better words. 

[thegeneral 2,877]

Through all the Trump bullshit my NFLX and WM are carrying on like warriors. Thanks boys!!

[Horseman 2,352]

19 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

So it’s not erased. Use better words. 

It's unerased now!  

[Hardcore troubadour 14,903]

Just now, Horseman said:

It's unerased now!  

[The Psychic Observer 495]

Rumors that Trump would cave and drop China tariffs to 50% - Market up over 1k

Bessents says that's not true - Gives back 500 of that.

Clown show.  You can't trade in this market.

[The Psychic Observer 495]

Trump says he's gonna fire Powell, market loses 1k

Trump caves like a little bish and says he won't, market adds 1k

[Maximum Overkill 1,738]

1 hour ago, The Psychic Observer said:

Rumors that Trump would cave and drop China tariffs to 50% - Market up over 1k

Bessents says that's not true - Gives back 500 of that.

Clown show.  You can't trade in this market.

Our Cities are burning  

[purdygood 331]

22 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Our Cities are burning  

I live in a city. I don't see any flames or smell any smoke.  Hmmm, maybe I'm having a reverse Stroke. SOMEONE BURN SOME TOAST!

[easilyscan 855]

President Trump needs to leave Jerome Powell alone. Maybe he was late in raising interest rates after they bottomed in late 2021, but at least he had a pair big enough to raise them substantially & not give into the pressure from Wall Street to immediately start lowering them every time the nation has a hiccup. I believe those historically low rates for a decade+ played a major role in the inflation we're all dealing with, especially in the housing market, & the reason there's an absolutely never ending demand for low income/affordable housing throughout the country.

Someone pays for that, and it isn't the people residing there. 

[easilyscan 855]

Google reports after the close 

[Horseman 2,352]

Keeps getting worse every day!

[Horseman 2,352]

23 hours ago, easilyscan said:

President Trump needs to leave Jerome Powell alone. Maybe he was late in raising interest rates after they bottomed in late 2021, but at least he had a pair big enough to raise them substantially & not give into the pressure from Wall Street to immediately start lowering them every time the nation has a hiccup. I believe those historically low rates for a decade+ played a major role in the inflation we're all dealing with, especially in the housing market, & the reason there's an absolutely never ending demand for low income/affordable housing throughout the country.

Someone pays for that, and it isn't the people residing there. 

I'm on team Powell. Keep the interest rates high. 

[easilyscan 855]

1 hour ago, easilyscan said:

Google reports after the close 

 

GOOG Q1 net income of $2.81 per diluted share, up from $1.89 a year ago.

Revenue for the quarter ended March 31 was $90.23 billion, up from $80.54 billion a year ago.

Analysts expected $89.17 billion.

Announced a 5% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.21, payable on June 16 to shareholders of record on June 9.

Shares rose 5% in Thursday's after-hours session.

 

I'll take it.

 

 

 

[RaiderHaters Revenge 4,236]

On 4/21/2025 at 8:00 PM, Hardcore troubadour said:

So it’s not erased. Use better words. 

graph go up, did money get unerased?

 

[thegeneral 2,877]

2 hours ago, easilyscan said:

 

 

GOOG Q1 net income of $2.81 per diluted share, up from $1.89 a year ago.

Revenue for the quarter ended March 31 was $90.23 billion, up from $80.54 billion a year ago.

Analysts expected $89.17 billion.

Announced a 5% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.21, payable on June 16 to shareholders of record on June 9.

Shares rose 5% in Thursday's after-hours session.

 

I'll take it.

 

 

 

Heck yeah

[Horseman 2,352]

Another green money un-erasing funny day. Tech stocks soar, should have bought more. 

[jbycho 577]

1 minute ago, Horseman said:

Another green money un-erasing funny day. Tech stocks soar, should have bought more. 

This is getting fun. Simply just what was expected. 

[The Psychic Observer 495]

2 minutes ago, jbycho said:

This is getting fun. Simply just what was expected. 

Qqq still down over 7% ytd.

[jbycho 577]

Just now, The Psychic Observer said:

Qqq still down over 7% ytd.

you try hard. 

[easilyscan 855]

9 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Another green money un-erasing funny day. Tech stocks soar, should have bought more. 

A little disappointed in Google today. They blew out the whisper number by 39%, + raised the dividend but shares only ended up a couple bucks.

Not complaining, because I also own Tesla, but they reported one of their worst 1/4's ever & shares skyrocketed ?

Mr. market doesn't always make sense.

 

[Horseman 2,352]

19 minutes ago, easilyscan said:

A little disappointed in Google today. They blew out the whisper number by 39%, + raised the dividend but shares only ended up a couple bucks.

Not complaining, because I also own Tesla, but they reported one of their worst 1/4's ever & shares skyrocketed ?

Mr. market doesn't always make sense.

 

Yeah, but it's a long game.  They're $15-$20 more than their April discount prices depending on when you got them.  

[easilyscan 855]

Today’s stock news…

Helium was up, feathers were down. Paper was stationary. Fluorescent tubing was dimmed in light trading. Knives were up sharply. Pencils lost a few points. Hiking equipment was trailing. Elevators rose, while escalators continued their slow decline. Weights were up in heavy trading.

Mining equipment hit rock bottom. Diapers remained unchanged. The market for raisins dried up. Balloon prices were inflated. And toilet paper touched a new bottom.