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Stock Market bubble - will crash

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2 hours ago, easilyscan said:

Stocks I Like. Goes without saying to do your own research. 

Crocs: (CROX) Never a fan of their footwear, but they seem to have a cult like following.

I've held a modest amount in an IRA for about 4.5 years & I started accumulating shares in my taxable & HSA accounts under $110

 

I like to look at the 3 most basic fundamentals 1st.

Top line: revenues - Bottom line: EPS - Net profit margin's

Revenues look great, although the year over year growth has slowed the last 7 quarters.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/CROX/crocs/revenue

 

EPS looks great as well, with one caveat that I'll get back to you later.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/CROX/crocs/eps-earnings-per-share-diluted

 

Margins are down from the all-time high of 35% mid 2021 (the zero interest rate go go days) but at 23%, still very impressive.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/CROX/crocs/profit-margins

 

Debt to equity ratio, price/sales, etc. look very reasonable

 

*Caveat* Q-4 2024 EPS was $6.25. The previous quarterly high was $4.93 in Q2 2021. I figured that had to be inflated by a one time gain of some kind, so I'll bump that down to $4.25 which would bring the TTM EPS down to $13.88. Divide that by the current share price of $90.72 & you come up with a multiple of 6.42

 

A Google search (will crocs be negatively impacted by the new tariffs) confirmed my suspicions as to why it's selling at such a low multiple.

Yes, Crocs is likely to be negatively impacted by the new tariffs. This is partly because Crocs produces a significant portion of its products in countries like Vietnam, which are subject to higher tariff rates. Additionally, Crocs has warned staff to closely manage expenses & has adjusted internal incentive plans due to the volatility caused by the tariffs. 

 

Take the worst case scenario, & say profits drop by a full 25% for 2025 

$13.88 Minus 25% = $10.41

Divide this by the current share price & it would still only be selling at 8.60 x earnings.

Thoughts ?

I do love their squishy flip flops and buy a new pair every year or so. BUY!

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9 minutes ago, The Psychic Observer said:

$1.4T erased today because of a trump post attacking Powell.  What a retard.

It’s gone? Forever? Where did it go? 

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2 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

It’s gone? Forever? Where did it go? 

Why am I not surprised that a guy that thinks that high profile people don't use credit cards and that the bravery of drowning kittens protects farms doesn't understand how the stock market works?

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11 minutes ago, The Psychic Observer said:

Why am I not surprised that a guy that thinks that high profile people don't use credit cards and that the bravery of drowning kittens protects farms doesn't understand how the stock market works?

You said it was “erased”. It’s gone? Forever? Explain it to me.  Thanks. 

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1 minute ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

You said it was “erased”. It’s gone? Forever? Explain it to me.  Thanks. 

Yes it's gone.  Will it come back?  Depends on if Trump tries to remove Powell.  Could take a while.  Maybe read a book.

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13 minutes ago, The Psychic Observer said:

Yes it's gone.  Will it come back?  Depends on if Trump tries to remove Powell.  Could take a while.  Maybe read a book.

So it’s not erased. Use better words. 

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Through all the Trump bullshit my NFLX and WM are carrying on like warriors. Thanks boys!!

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19 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

So it’s not erased. Use better words. 

It's unerased now!  :lol:

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Just now, Horseman said:

It's unerased now!  :lol:

🤣

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Rumors that Trump would cave and drop China tariffs to 50% - Market up over 1k

Bessents says that's not true - Gives back 500 of that.

Clown show.  You can't trade in this market.

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1 hour ago, The Psychic Observer said:

Rumors that Trump would cave and drop China tariffs to 50% - Market up over 1k

Bessents says that's not true - Gives back 500 of that.

Clown show.  You can't trade in this market.

Our Cities are burning 🔥 

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22 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Our Cities are burning 🔥 

I live in a city. I don't see any flames or smell any smoke.  Hmmm, maybe I'm having a reverse Stroke. SOMEONE BURN SOME TOAST!

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President Trump needs to leave Jerome Powell alone. Maybe he was late in raising interest rates after they bottomed in late 2021, but at least he had a pair big enough to raise them substantially & not give into the pressure from Wall Street to immediately start lowering them every time the nation has a hiccup. I believe those historically low rates for a decade+ played a major role in the inflation we're all dealing with, especially in the housing market, & the reason there's an absolutely never ending demand for low income/affordable housing throughout the country.

Someone pays for that, and it isn't the people residing there. 

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23 hours ago, easilyscan said:

President Trump needs to leave Jerome Powell alone. Maybe he was late in raising interest rates after they bottomed in late 2021, but at least he had a pair big enough to raise them substantially & not give into the pressure from Wall Street to immediately start lowering them every time the nation has a hiccup. I believe those historically low rates for a decade+ played a major role in the inflation we're all dealing with, especially in the housing market, & the reason there's an absolutely never ending demand for low income/affordable housing throughout the country.

Someone pays for that, and it isn't the people residing there. 

I'm on team Powell. Keep the interest rates high. 

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1 hour ago, easilyscan said:

Google reports after the close 😟

 

GOOG Q1 net income of $2.81 per diluted share, up from $1.89 a year ago.

Revenue for the quarter ended March 31 was $90.23 billion, up from $80.54 billion a year ago.

Analysts expected $89.17 billion.

Announced a 5% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.21, payable on June 16 to shareholders of record on June 9.

Shares rose 5% in Thursday's after-hours session.

 

I'll take it.

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, easilyscan said:

 

 

GOOG Q1 net income of $2.81 per diluted share, up from $1.89 a year ago.

Revenue for the quarter ended March 31 was $90.23 billion, up from $80.54 billion a year ago.

Analysts expected $89.17 billion.

Announced a 5% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.21, payable on June 16 to shareholders of record on June 9.

Shares rose 5% in Thursday's after-hours session.

 

I'll take it.

 

 

 

Heck yeah

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Another green money un-erasing funny day. Tech stocks soar, should have bought more. 

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1 minute ago, Horseman said:

Another green money un-erasing funny day. Tech stocks soar, should have bought more. 

This is getting fun. Simply just what was expected. 

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Just now, The Psychic Observer said:

Qqq still down over 7% ytd.

😆 you try hard. 

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9 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Another green money un-erasing funny day. Tech stocks soar, should have bought more. 

A little disappointed in Google today. They blew out the whisper number by 39%, + raised the dividend but shares only ended up a couple bucks.

Not complaining, because I also own Tesla, but they reported one of their worst 1/4's ever & shares skyrocketed ?

Mr. market doesn't always make sense.

 

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19 minutes ago, easilyscan said:

A little disappointed in Google today. They blew out the whisper number by 39%, + raised the dividend but shares only ended up a couple bucks.

Not complaining, because I also own Tesla, but they reported one of their worst 1/4's ever & shares skyrocketed ?

Mr. market doesn't always make sense.

 

Yeah, but it's a long game.  They're $15-$20 more than their April discount prices depending on when you got them.  

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Today’s stock news…

Helium was up, feathers were down. Paper was stationary. Fluorescent tubing was dimmed in light trading. Knives were up sharply. Pencils lost a few points. Hiking equipment was trailing. Elevators rose, while escalators continued their slow decline. Weights were up in heavy trading.

Mining equipment hit rock bottom. Diapers remained unchanged. The market for raisins dried up. Balloon prices were inflated. And toilet paper touched a new bottom.

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Hats off to those who were accumulating Microsoft under 400

395.26 
+1.22 
+(0.31%) 
 
After Hours  
419.20 
+23.94 
+(6.06%)
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3 minutes ago, easilyscan said:

Hats off to those who were accumulating Microsoft under 400

 

395.26 
+1.22 
+(0.31%) 
 
After Hours  
419.20 
+23.94 
+(6.06%)

Always nice to get paid off. Hopefully AAPL and AMZN do their thing tomorrow.

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34 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

Always nice to get paid off. Hopefully AAPL and AMZN do their thing tomorrow.

Sucks that Google also had an outstanding report, but didn't move up much. I suppose that has something to do with the fockheads @ the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) seeking to break up the company. No one is forced to use google, plenty of other choices.......

 
 
DuckDuckGo
 
 
 
Ecosia
 
 
 
Bing
 
 
 
Startpage
 
 
 
Swisscows
 
 
 
Qwant
 
 
 
Yahoo!
 
 
 
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Gibiru
 
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Baidu
 
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Perplexity AI
 
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Yahoo Search
 
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You.com
 
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Ekoru
 
 
BoardReader
 
 

 

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5 minutes ago, easilyscan said:

Sucks that Google also had an outstanding report, but didn't move up much. I suppose that has something to do with the fockheads @ the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) seeking to break up the company. No one is forced to use google, plenty of other choices.......

 
 
DuckDuckGo
 
 
 
Ecosia
 
 
 
Bing
 
 
 
Startpage
 
 
 
Swisscows
 
 
 
Qwant
 
 
 
Yahoo!
 
 
 
Brave Search
 
 
 
Yandex Search
 
images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRv7z5VGAcoKkk8Qf7dpTM
 
WolframAlpha
 
images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR6HV1BBXnePz0Ggc2Kh6a
 
Dogpile
 
images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR5C3y0--AZeN7qloPELhv
 
Mojeek
 
images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSb4J5GKZLDdirLeI1hNLh
 
Gibiru
 
images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTP2KZXDXKu9WP-mlmFCt5
 
Baidu
 
images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTZcZQSb9D5whDC4HPz_gj
 
Perplexity AI
 
images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRM6NoNg6Q3rf0b1MJVkOD
 
Ask.com
 
images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSQQH_0rP5CzChWW6cj4OT
 
AOL
 
images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTHBNeQPCLQyF2VI1fsuFp
 
OneSearch
 
images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQRK-9o4fYNkLGcJSE6hQ2
 
Searx
 
images?q=tbn:ANd9GcT9ogfO0mEMUcPSheOg2kD
 
Yahoo Search
 
images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRBeA4R-j95Z8YEWVP0J_l
 
Yep
 
images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRz98SME98BsJEPWbL34dE
 
You.com
 
images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTyxEQ-Bay41cvpWEm_uZ4
 
Ekoru
 
 
BoardReader
 
 

 

It’s a bit worrying that GOOG had those numbers, P/E is so low, and that it still lagging a bit. Not selling tho. In the long term hold bucket.

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Let’s get a health check…

I’m down 7% YTD in my main account that I sweat over. 

Down 2.5% in my set it and forget it old man investments account

Down 18% in my gambling account 😮

Have DCA’d in all these accounts. Individual stocks and index funds so eventually will see some bountiful crops I hope!

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4 hours ago, thegeneral said:

Let’s get a health check…

I’m down 7% YTD in my main account that I sweat over. 

Down 2.5% in my set it and forget it old man investments account

Down 18% in my gambling account 😮

Have DCA’d in all these accounts. Individual stocks and index funds so eventually will see some bountiful crops I hope!

TSP -1.33% (This was the account I was DCAing out of last October)

Trading account -18.53% (sold everything back in feb/mar, moving towards Tesla, NVDA, STRK)

Roth -2.32% Converted 100% to FBTC a few months ago)

Degen -35.24% (Mostly from those stupid option plays)

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4 hours ago, thegeneral said:

Let’s get a health check…

I’m down 7% YTD in my main account that I sweat over. 

Down 2.5% in my set it and forget it old man investments account

Down 18% in my gambling account 😮

Have DCA’d in all these accounts. Individual stocks and index funds so eventually will see some bountiful crops I hope!

Do you enjoy boasting how bad you are with money gutterpee guy? :doh:

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13 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

TSP -1.33% (This was the account I was DCAing out of last October)

Trading account -18.53% (sold everything back in feb/mar, moving towards Tesla, NVDA, STRK)

Roth -2.32% Converted 100% to FBTC a few months ago)

Degen -35.24% (Mostly from those stupid option plays)

Here’s to better times! Im betting the overall market will be healthy again within a couple years. Got plenty of time til I’ll get at this money hopefully.

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7 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

Here’s to better times! Im betting the overall market will be healthy again within a couple years. Got plenty of time til I’ll get at this money hopefully.

When the fed cuts interest rates and starts QE the market will recover. At least that's my hypothesis. 

The market would be no different under Kamala. 

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1 minute ago, Cdub100 said:

When the fed cuts interest rates and starts QE the market will recover. At least that's my hypothesis. 

The market would be no different under Kamala. 

The tariffs and Trump’s erratic behavior are making things worse IMO.

Market was due a big correction. But honestly no one knows anything. Personally just have faith that the markets are one of the best ways to build wealth over the long term.

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1 minute ago, thegeneral said:

The tariffs and Trump’s erratic behavior are making things worse IMO.

Market was due a big correction. But honestly no one knows anything. Personally just have faith that the markets are one of the best ways to build wealth over the long term.

The market would come up with any excuse to dump. A trader sneezes, and all of a sudden it's a new pandemic, and the market will dump.

I 100% agree with your second sentence.

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