Stock Market bubble - will crash

[lickin_starfish 2,031]

On 10/14/2025 at 1:30 AM, easilyscan said:

Gold & Silver continue to rise. Someone on Yahoo made an interesting point. (not sure if it's true)

They've sold more paper silver ETF's than they have physical silver to back it up. No sympathy for the financial engineers.

 

 

 

Silver hit and all time high overnight, and the paper traders system had "an unfortunate cooling system fault". They halted trading to stop the bleeding.

Reminds me of the 2020 Georgia water leak at 3:00 AM.

[nobody 2,934]

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/08/trump-nvidia-h200-sales-china.html

Trump opening China for NVDA.

Originally both the US and China prohibited the use of NVDA chips in China.  US because they were worried about military use and China - ever the open and fair trade partner - wanted to steal NVDA IP and home grow a chip source.

This deal is for the H200 chips (previous version), and they are only supposed to be to approved Chinese companies.  But this is China.  They'll definitely resell them to whomever they want.

[easilyscan 1,074]

In my humble opinion, today was a blow off top in silver. Hope I'm wrong because I hold quite a bit of it.

https://www.imagebam.com/view/ME18NX1P

[lickin_starfish 2,031]

17 minutes ago, easilyscan said:

In my humble opinion, today was a blow off top in silver. Hope I'm wrong because I hold quite a bit of it.

https://www.imagebam.com/view/ME18NX1P

The money printer is getting turned back on, and inflation should keep silver pumping. I'm not exchanging any of mine for Monopoly money yet.

[nobody 2,934]

Musk... This dude is going to make me invest in TSLA.  He has companies and a skill set uniquely suited to accomplish something extremely profitable if he can pull it off...

DATA CENTERS IN SPACE!?!?!!!

[easilyscan 1,074]

1 hour ago, nobody said:

Musk... This dude is going to make me invest in TSLA.  He has companies and a skill set uniquely suited to accomplish something extremely profitable if he can pull it off...

DATA CENTERS IN SPACE!?!?!!!

The current Tesla share price has a lot of great expectations built in IMHO. Not saying you shouldn't buy it, just something to keep in mind.

The last 4 quarters earnings are down 73%-71%-17%- 37% versus the prior years EPS.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/eps-earnings-per-share-diluted

Wall Street looks forward, not back, but if that was any other company but Tesla, it would be trading below $100.

 

Full Disclosure: Own 288 shares with a cost basis of $15.14 

Why would I be bearish while I still hold the shares ?

While I believe in the company long-term, I believe it's priced beyond perfection right now, & would only recommend @ these prices to someone I really dislike.

Of course I've been wrong before, so maybe you should buy   

Regards

 

[nobody 2,934]

I was being facetious.  I don't trust Musk, but looking at TSLA as a car company and looking at earnings is incorrect in my opinion.  TSLA is a spec play on robots and robo-taxies.

[nobody 2,934]

Trust aside, I probably would have to invest in spaceX if it ever became public.  I couldn't pass on a company with the potential to put cellphones out of business.

That's too lucrative to pass up.

And I know, satellites don't work indoors, but that's why you have ground stations to convert it to voip or solve it with an antenna and repeater.

Problem is there really is no reason for him to take it public since they can raise unlimited amounts of money and spaceX is already valued at 800 billion.  

[lickin_starfish 2,031]

On 12/11/2025 at 5:35 PM, easilyscan said:

In my humble opinion, today was a blow off top in silver. Hope I'm wrong because I hold quite a bit of it.

https://www.imagebam.com/view/ME18NX1P

Still holding? 

This years stock market Santa Rally has been shìt, so I'm glad metals are rocking.

[Horseman 2,711]

Dow 13% YTD

Nasdaq 18% YTD 

S&P 15% YTD

[Ron_Artest 2,460]

26 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Dow 13% YTD

Nasdaq 18% YTD 

S&P 15% YTD

You still want rates to go up?

[easilyscan 1,074]

3 hours ago, lickin_starfish said:

Still holding? 

This years stock market Santa Rally has been shìt, so I'm glad metals are rocking.

Yes sir!

My 50/50 mix of 1400 64 Kennedy & assorted year Franklin halves are in a secure place and appreciating nicely

 

[easilyscan 1,074]

On 12/16/2025 at 7:26 AM, nobody said:

I was being facetious.  I don't trust Musk, but looking at TSLA as a car company and looking at earnings is incorrect in my opinion.  TSLA is a spec play on robots and robo-taxies.

I hear ya. Wall street looks forward, not back.

On the other hand, as of today, Tesla is only a car company whose YOY earnings have been down an average of 49% over the last 4 quarters.

More concerning is Musk's vision for the future. This is why I recently started a thread asking if he could be an idiot savant ? 

Key Points of Musk's Prediction

• Work as a Hobby: Musk suggests that working will become a personal choice, similar to how some people enjoy gardening or playing sports today, even when buying food from a store is easier.
• Abundance and No Money: He envisions a post-scarcity world where AI and robots produce an abundance of goods and services, making money itself irrelevant.
• Universal High Income (UHI): To manage this shift, Musk has suggested implementing a "Universal High Income" (UHI), which would cover everyone's living expenses in a world without traditional jobs.
• Focus on Meaning: In this potential future, the main challenge for humans would not be material survival, but finding a sense of purpose and meaning in life when all work is handled by machines.
• A Lot of Work to Get There: While describing this automated future, Musk acknowledges that "a lot of work" is required to transition to that stage. 

 

 

 

[Horseman 2,711]

Markets liked the speech.  

Weaklings without money hated it. 

Winning.  

[Ron_Artest 2,460]

5 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Markets liked the speech.  

Weaklings without money hated it. 

Winning.  

Markets liked the tame inflation rate report you idiot.

[seafoam1 3,517]

2 minutes ago, Ron_Artest said:

Markets liked the tame inflation rate report you idiot.

Gutternuts. Just another suffering liberal. 

[easilyscan 1,074]

Live Silver Price

Dec 19, 2025 - 17:11 NY Time

Bid

67.10

USD

+1.68 (+2.57%)

[WhiteWonder 3,003]

3 minutes ago, easilyscan said:

 

Live Silver Price

Dec 19, 2025 - 17:11 NY Time

Bid

67.10

USD

+1.68 (+2.57%)

pretty nice. I collected a bunch of silver a while back. Mostly 90% coins and some sterling pieces.  

Even rounding down the current melt price, the pre 64 quarters alone are worth about $2K

[easilyscan 1,074]

Not making any predictions, & not trying to scare anyone. Just posting an interesting article.

The stock market is doing something it's only done twice since 1871

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/the-stock-market-is-doing-something-it-s-only-done-twice-since-1871-should-you-be-worried-for-2026/ar-AA1SLQBH?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=69483ec7462a4d34b5811008fc78e4e6&ei=12

The ratio they're referring to in the article.

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

[Ron_Artest 2,460]

I mentioned high PE ratios before and was laughed at and told that I'm just poor and went all cash.

[seafoam1 3,517]

12 minutes ago, Ron_Artest said:

 I'm just poor and went all cash.

You are and you did.

I've made 16% returns on my investments over this past year. 

[Gepetto 1,478]

Should I change the thread title to Stock Market - official thread?

[Ron_Artest 2,460]

1 minute ago, Gepetto said:

Should I change the thread title to Stock Market - official thread?

Well we're still a bubble, do you think it will crash?

[seafoam1 3,517]

3 minutes ago, Gepetto said:

Should I change the thread title to Stock Market - official thread?

[easilyscan 1,074]

34 minutes ago, Gepetto said:

Should I change the thread title to Stock Market - official thread?

That would be fine by me. Of course that could trigger a bear market....lol 

[Gepetto 1,478]

38 minutes ago, Ron_Artest said:

Well we're still a bubble, do you think it will crash?

I'll agree it's still a bubble. Not sure, eventually some day, but I don't think soon.

[Ron_Artest 2,460]

1 minute ago, Gepetto said:

I'll agree it's still a bubble. Not sure, eventually some day, but I don't think soon.

So what changed from 2022 when you called for a crash?

[lickin_starfish 2,031]

1 hour ago, Gepetto said:

Should I change the thread title to Stock Market - official thread?

As soon as you change it, the market will crash. You're the only person keeping it afloat.

[Horseman 2,711]

1 hour ago, Gepetto said:

Should I change the thread title to Stock Market - official thread?

Yes. Markets are strong and humming along.   Crashes if and when they happen are short lived now days anyway.  

[easilyscan 1,074]

1 hour ago, Gepetto said:

I'll agree it's still a bubble. Not sure, eventually some day, but I don't think soon.

No one asked for my opinion, but that's never stopped me before…lol

I believe the Shiller index shown earlier might be a little misleading.

Here's why. Anyone who pays even the slightest bit of attention to the markets is probably aware of how heavily the magnificent 7 weigh on the returns & total market cap of the S&P 500.

For anyone who isn't aware of who the magnificent 7 are.
Apple, Amazon, Alphabet/Google, Microsoft, Meta/Facebook, Nvidia, & Tesla

Even though these 7 companies only represent 1.40% of the total number of companies in the index, they account for approximately 36.00% of the market capitalization.

Here's the PE ratios for the Mag 7 in the same alphabetical order as above. 37 - 32 - 30 - 35 - 29 - 45 - 334

Tesla is substantially skewing the PE ratio, which is @ 77 x with Tesla included.
Leave them out, make it the magnificent 6, & the average PE is 25. 

Not necessarily cheap, but 36% lower than the 39 x shown on the Shiller index.

[Horseman 2,711]

6 minutes ago, easilyscan said:

No one asked for my opinion, but that's never stopped me before…lol

I believe the Shiller index shown earlier might be a little misleading.

Here's why. Anyone who pays even the slightest bit of attention to the markets is probably aware of how heavily the magnificent 7 weigh on the returns & total market cap of the S&P 500.

For anyone who isn't aware of who the magnificent 7 are.
Apple, Amazon, Alphabet/Google, Microsoft, Meta/Facebook, Nvidia, & Tesla

Even though these 7 companies only represent 1.40% of the total number of companies in the index, they account for approximately 36.00% of the S&P 500's market capitalization.

Here's the PE ratios for the Mag 7 in the same alphabetical order as above. 37 - 32 - 30 - 35 - 29 - 45 - 334

Tesla is substantially skewing the PE ratio, which is @ 77 x with Tesla included.
Leave them out, & make it the magnificent 6, & the average PE is 25. 

Not necessarily cheap, but 36% lower than the 39 x shown on the Shiller index.

Well said.  Not even flinching at a PE ratio in the 30s for the likes of amzn.  Look at their history.   

[easilyscan 1,074]

Can't guarantee it's accurate (easy to make up a fake chart) but I found this interesting. 

https://www.imagebam.com/view/ME18YK4N

[easilyscan 1,074]

1 hour ago, Ron_Artest said:

So what changed from 2022 when you called for a crash?

The Schiller PE ratio was 38 in October 2021, and 28 in October 2022. A drop of 26% peak to trough. Although it didn't take place entirely in 2022, I'd say that was a crash. 

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

 

 

[Mookz 1,390]

4 hours ago, Gepetto said:

Should I change the thread title to Stock Market - official thread?

At least change it to "will pop" to align metaphors. 

[seafoam1 3,517]

Oh boy. If the market crashed, I'm all in. I've been doing great over the past year. 

[Gepetto 1,478]

6 hours ago, Ron_Artest said:

So what changed from 2022 when you called for a crash?

The 2022 crash happened just as I predicted it. Then the market bounced back later. Then I predicted another crash a while later and it occurred as well, then the market recovered again.

[Gepetto 1,478]

3 hours ago, Mookz said:

At least change it to "will pop" to align metaphors. 

It's as bad as this: