who to keep?

[kujerry 9]

PPR League

Swift and lose my 2nd 

or 

Dobbins and lose my 4th

[dpbuddha 9]

It seems Swift is the better value for a 2nd rounder vs Dobbins for a 4th. ADP for Swift in PPR is 13 vs 49 for Dobbins (according to fantasypros.com)

[Ray_T 740]

what this comes down to is whether swift is worth a 2nd round pick.  hes for sure the better player.

If you throw him back, what are the odds you can get him with a 2nd? 

 I think not great.  his adp is at #12 overall in PPR and a little earlier in standard leagues.

Dobbins ADP is 4.03.

Id suggest your chances of getting dobbins back in round 4 is better than your chances of getting swift in round 2.

and usually you win with the higher end talent.   so unless you have a bunch of great RB's already kept, Swift is likely your guy.

obviously if we had your whole roster and keeper list we could likely give better advice, but if only considering these 2 players, I'd take Swift. 

 

 

[Vtfanatic 0]

I agree with Swift

[bull19007 0]

Dobbins injury was worse than is being given credit for.  I don't know that I would be looking at him in the 4th round if you keep Swift.  

[MTSkiBum 1,620]

Swift.

[Upsman89 16]

swift

[weepaws 3,158]

Swift. 

[Ray_T 740]

On 7/31/2022 at 3:16 AM, bull19007 said:

Dobbins injury was worse than is being given credit for.  I don't know that I would be looking at him in the 4th round if you keep Swift.  

just to clarify,  in drafts like this the first thing I do is get an idea as to whether you would be likely to get the player with the draft pick you are giving up to keep them

if the answer is yes, its an automatic do not keep.  

so I was never suggesting if dobbins made it back to round 4 that he should take him.    That was not my intent.   hes a good player, but probably wont be all that useful  until midseason due to the injury and recovery.

he may be back in week 1 or 2 but that does not mean hes ready to put up big numbers.   that usually comes later.   sometimes 3 months, sometimes 6.  sometimes a full year later.  is that worth a round 4 pick?

I suppose it depends who is on the board, but its unlikely hes the guy I'm taking at that time if I'm in his shoes.

[Cretins 22]

Swift in the 2nd.  Depending on how many keepers are kept in your league, Swift would likely go in the 1st round if you didn't keep him.  Keeping him puts him on your roster with a 1st round pick still to go giving you a solid start.  Dobbins I'm more worried about (granted I'm keeping him in the 9th, but wouldn't for a 4th).