2022 - the year of Geriatric RBs

[GobbleDog 823]

RB rankings of 27+ y.o. (ppr scoring):

3) Ekeler  (27)

4) Henry (28)

6) Cook (27)

7) Kamara (27)

8 ) Fournette (27)

12) Jones (27)

13) Conner (27)

15) Elliott (27)

Every league is different, but in my ppr league ya know how many 27+ y.o. RBs finished in the top 10 scoring?  ZERO! Only one - Cordarrelle Patterson finished in the top 20. I don't know if last year was just abnormal with not many older RBs in the game, but those stats give me pause.  Look at the age of the top RBs in this year's draft!?!  Bunch of geezers compared to last season. To make things more difficult, McCaffrey is a "youthful 26" but with lot of tread and injury, while Chubb turns 27 mid-season.

Likely a few of those RBs will finish in the top 10 this year, but it looks like a mine field to trying to decide which denture wearing fossil will actually survive the season and live up to their ranking.

[AxeElf 787]

3 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Only one - Cordarrelle Patterson finished in the top 20.

You must have some unreported scoring peccadilloes, because in regular PPR scoring, Patterson was RB9.

So all the top 10 RBs turned 27 this year, and therefore, avoid them?

[GobbleDog 823]

Just now, AxeElf said:

You must have some unreported scoring peccadilloes, because in regular PPR scoring, Patterson was RB9.

So all the top 10 RBs turned 27 this year, and therefore, avoid them?

Patterson finished 11th in my league, but there's weird bonuses for 100+ yd games.

Regardless, no - I'm not saying avoid all Depends-wearing RBs this year. Just, that it shocked to me how many senior citizen RBs there are this year and how few actually finished well last year. Ya gotta admit, it's weird. It'll make me a bit nervous drafting them.

[Ray_T 603]

I think we will be seeing the beginning of what will be called the changing of the guard.

some will fall off this year, some next, a whole lot more will drop off the year after that.

its going to be interesting times because not many RB's are fantasy relevant beyond the age of about 30 or 31.

[AxeElf 787]

2 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Just, that it shocked to me how many senior citizen RBs there are this year and how few actually finished well last year.

Only because you arbitrarily set the dividing line for "senior citizens" at 27.  If you set it at 28, the only one still on the list is Henry.

[GobbleDog 823]

1 minute ago, AxeElf said:

Only because you arbitrarily set the dividing line for "senior citizens" at 27.  If you set it at 28, the only one still on the list is Henry.

The arbitration line occurred to me based on last year when no 27+ y.o. RBs finished in the top 10 and only one in the top 20.

Just admit it, THEY'RE OLD. I'd venture to guess this is oldest crop of "top 20" Rbs in the past 10+ years.

[AxeElf 787]

1 minute ago, GobbleDog said:

The arbitration line occurred to me based on last year when no 27+ y.o. RBs finished in the top 10 and only one in the top 20.

Just admit it, THEY'RE OLD. I'd venture to guess this is oldest crop of "top 20" Rbs in the past 10+ years.

But how many 26+ y.o. RBs finished in the top 10 last year--8?

That's what makes it arbitrary.

[GobbleDog 823]

1 minute ago, AxeElf said:

But how many 26+ y.o. RBs finished in the top 10 last year--8?

That's what makes it arbitrary.

5 in my league - Ekeler, Fournette, Elliot, Conner, Kamara.

But still, 26 vs 27 in RB years... that's like dog years.

[AxeElf 787]

8 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

5 in my league - Ekeler, Fournette, Elliot, Conner, Kamara.

Would have been 8 if you din't have the weird scoring on Patterson and if Henry and Cook had finished the season.

[Brutal Brutus 182]

It's been a weak few years for RBs coming out of college, which I think has caused some older injury prone RBs to remain relevant. I think that's going to change in the next two years with a few guys that look like dynamic college rushers.  

In standard scoring leagues, I plan to stock pile RBs at the draft to help absorb injuries. WRs are a dime a dozen after the first handful in this format anyways. 

[GobbleDog 823]

1 minute ago, AxeElf said:

Would have been 8 if you din't have the weird scoring on Patterson and if Henry and Cook had finished the season.

I'll give ya Patterson.

But "if they'd finished the season..." stuff is the whole point. They didn't because God hates old people.

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

I'll give ya Patterson.

But "if they'd finished the season..." stuff is the whole point. They didn't because God hates old people.

Cook has never played more than 14 games in a season.  It's just expected with him, and has nothing to do with his age.

And Henry did finish the season, coming back for the playoffs last year--but for the first time in his career, he had missed significant time during the season.  You're betting it will happen two yeras in a row, I'm betting on his historical durability.

[GobbleDog 823]

47 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

And Henry did finish the season, coming back for the playoffs last year--but for the first time in his career, he had missed significant time during the season.  You're betting it will happen two yeras in a row, I'm betting on his historical durability.

I'm betting lack of receptions, lackluster Titan's offense, and injury risk of a RB with a million miles under his belt who turns 29 in January... has minimal chance of finishing in the top 5. No way I draft Henry 1st round, let alone early- to mid-1st. I'll let the Elf roll those risky dice.

[AxeElf 787]

11 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

I'll let the Elf roll those risky dice.

Fortune favors the bold.

(It's not really THAT bold to think that an ironman who was lapping the field last year might have another good year in him, but if the perception is that Axe Elf is some wildman who finds fantasy gold where no one else sees it, so be it.)

[Gepetto 1,007]

So OP, you're saying draft Jonathan Taylor, Najee Harris, Nick Chubb, Joe Mixon, Saquon Barkley, Javonte Williams, D'Andre Swift, Elijah Mitchell? 

or

Miles Sanders, Josh Jacobs, Devin Singletary, David Montgomery, JK Dobbins, Clyde-Edwards Helaire, Cam Akers, Travis Etienne, James Robinson, Breece Hall, Antonio Gibson, AJ Dillon, Damien Harris, Rashaad Penny, Dameon Pierce

That's narrowing your choices, smart in dynasty, not in redraft.

[polecatt 405]

3 hours ago, Ray_T said:

I think we will be seeing the beginning of what will be called the changing of the guard.

some will fall off this year, some next, a whole lot more will drop off the year after that.

its going to be interesting times because not many RB's are fantasy relevant beyond the age of about 30 or 31.

You know, I think we may start to see a slight uptick in older RBs like that, into their 30s.

Kind of like Frank Gore and Adrian Peterson. With the players supposedly taking less of a beating and therefore should lost longer, I think there's a good chance that we see a few more guys like that going forward. I'm not saying they're gonna put up huge seasons or anything like that. They can be fantasy relevant though. I could easily see guys like Zeke and Fournette lasting into their 30s as between the tackle plodders and goal line backs.

[Ray_T 603]

53 minutes ago, polecatt said:

You know, I think we may start to see a slight uptick in older RBs like that, into their 30s.

Kind of like Frank Gore and Adrian Peterson. With the players supposedly taking less of a beating and therefore should lost longer, I think there's a good chance that we see a few more guys like that going forward. I'm not saying they're gonna put up huge seasons or anything like that. They can be fantasy relevant though. I could easily see guys like Zeke and Fournette lasting into their 30s as between the tackle plodders and goal line backs.

it is possible.  only time will tell.

with better workout programs and such I wouldnt be surprised to see more players having longer careers.   so far we have not seen a lot of that with RB's but QB's and WR's we have to varying degrees.

[weepaws 2,516]

5 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

RB rankings of 27+ y.o. (ppr scoring):

3) Ekeler  (27)

4) Henry (28)

6) Cook (27)

7) Kamara (27)

8 ) Fournette (27)

12) Jones (27)

13) Conner (27)

15) Elliott (27)

Every league is different, but in my ppr league ya know how many 27+ y.o. RBs finished in the top 10 scoring?  ZERO! Only one - Cordarrelle Patterson finished in the top 20. I don't know if last year was just abnormal with not many older RBs in the game, but those stats give me pause.  Look at the age of the top RBs in this year's draft!?!  Bunch of geezers compared to last season. To make things more difficult, McCaffrey is a "youthful 26" but with lot of tread and injury, while Chubb turns 27 mid-season.

Likely a few of those RBs will finish in the top 10 this year, but it looks like a mine field to trying to decide which denture wearing fossil will actually survive the season and live up to their ranking.

Damn there goes my draft.  

[weepaws 2,516]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

I'm betting lack of receptions, lackluster Titan's offense, and injury risk of a RB with a million miles under his belt who turns 29 in January... has minimal chance of finishing in the top 5. No way I draft Henry 1st round, let alone early- to mid-1st. I'll let the Elf roll those risky dice.

Mistake. Last season before his injury he was avg 23 points per game ppr with a lack of rec. and I agree with out Henry the Titans offense is lackluster. 

[GobbleDog 823]

2 hours ago, Gepetto said:

So OP, you're saying draft Jonathan Taylor, Najee Harris, Nick Chubb, Joe Mixon, Saquon Barkley, Javonte Williams, D'Andre Swift, Elijah Mitchell?

I'm not saying 'draft this guy, not this guy.'  Just thought it was strange so many top Rbs were that old. Going over player stats and it jumped out at me. Also a bit distressing only one 27+ y.o. finished in the top 20 last year. Perhaps an anomaly. 

[Gepetto 1,007]

2 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

I'm not saying 'draft this guy, not this guy.'  Just thought it was strange so many top Rbs were that old. Going over player stats and it jumped out at me. Also a bit distressing only one 27+ y.o. finished in the top 20 last year. Perhaps an anomaly. 

I think it's just random chance that a lot of the best RBs are that age and most were drafted in 2017, which I can't explain other than just chance.  These guys showed their talent immediately when they were rookies. 

Dalvin Cook, Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, Leonard Fournette, Austin Ekeler, Aaron Jones.  And Kareem Hunt who's career got sidetracked by the off the field incident.

[DrG 94]

Henry and  McCaffrey have the best chance to be top 10. Half of these players are likely to drop out of the top 20.

 

[GobbleDog 823]

Let's see where our galloping dinosaurs finished Week 1 in ppr among RBs....

Conner - 15

Fournette - 18

Cook - 20

Ekeler - 26

Jones - 29

Henry - 39

Kamara - 45

Elliott - 50

Holy mother of pearl, I need my pills!  I'll bump again at mid-season and see how the coffin dodgers are doing.