Preakness 2023

[BeenHereBefore 1,467]

Here we go and how do you like Mange ? Any other horses ?

[TommyGavin 790]

I like Perform and will W/P/S and box it with Mange

[BeenHereBefore 1,467]

3 minutes ago, TommyGavin said:

I like Perform and will W/P/S and box it with Mange

Good input and thanks for the post.

[Baker Boy 1,688]

Mange / All - Exacta Box

[tubby_mcgee 700]

2 hours ago, Baker Boy said:

Mange / All - Exacta Box

Mage/All exacta is just that -- an exacta.  The box isn't a thing in this scenario, right?  Just an exacta with Mage singled, the rest underneath? 

 

Mage -
1. no one has ran close to his speed figures. He can take a step back and still win even if a different horse steps forward. 
2. He was 15-1 or so in Derby. But....he ran as good as Forte did in the Florida Derby the week before.  Call it a wash.  Had he won, he'd have been 4-1 or 5-1 in Derby, and folks wouldn't have called the Derby "an upset".  And then coming into Preakness, even LESS people would be doubting him. His "progress" reminds me of Funny Cide in 2003.

Problem: won't have a pace to run at.  Front runner(s) will have staying power.

National Treasure -
1.) he'll get to dictate the pace now. And likely run slow fractions.  Plays to his advantage.
2.) trained by Bob Baffert.  That's scary by itself.
3. ) Speed figures show he's too slow to beat Mage. Buuuuuut.... see#1 and #2.

Problem: Mage closed in Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby. His first two races, he was closer to pace.  I think he can stay closer to pace and keep National Treasure within striking distance. 

Perform-
1. His last race was nuts.  I forget what race.  HORRIBLE trip, weaved through everyone to get to finish line first. 
2.) Shug McGaughey got the owners to pay $150k to get this horse into the Preakness.  He doesn't run horses unless he thinks they have a good chance. This is his first Preakness horse in 10 or so years.  So I ask myself....what does he know?  He's a quiet guy. He'd never show his hand even if he had the next Secretariat. 

 

Problem: Beyers too slow.  Likely can't take a big enough jump?

 

Gonna be tough to make any money in this years Preakness.

Gotta hope for an upset....OR.... put Mage on top...and be able to get the superfecta with minimal spending.

 

ALL/1,3/ALL  Trifecta.  Hope for an upset at #1 spot and assume there is no way in hell BOTH 1 and 3 miss the #2 spot. ????

 

 

[Baker Boy 1,688]

8 minutes ago, tubby_mcgee said:

Mage/All exacta is just that -- an exacta.  The box isn't a thing in this scenario, right?  Just an exacta with Mage singled, the rest underneath? 

 

Mage -
1. no one has ran close to his speed figures. He can take a step back and still win even if a different horse steps forward. 
2. He was 15-1 or so in Derby. But....he ran as good as Forte did in the Florida Derby the week before.  Call it a wash.  Had he won, he'd have been 4-1 or 5-1 in Derby, and folks wouldn't have called the Derby "an upset".  And then coming into Preakness, even LESS people would be doubting him. His "progress" reminds me of Funny Cide in 2003.

Problem: won't have a pace to run at.  Front runner(s) will have staying power.

National Treasure -
1.) he'll get to dictate the pace now. And likely run slow fractions.  Plays to his advantage.
2.) trained by Bob Baffert.  That's scary by itself.
3. ) Speed figures show he's too slow to beat Mage. Buuuuuut.... see#1 and #2.

Perform-
1. His last race was nuts.  I forget what race.  HORRIBLE trip, weaved through everyone to get to finish line first. 
2.) Shug McGaughey got the owners to pay $150k to get this horse into the Preakness.  He doesn't run horses unless he thinks they have a good chance. This is his first Preakness horse in 10 or so years.  So I ask myself....what does he know?  He's a quiet guy. He'd never show his hand even if he had the next Secretariat. 

 

Problem: Beyers too slow.  Likely can't take a big enough jump?

 

Gonna be tough to make any money in this years Preakness.

Gotta hope for an upset....OR.... put Mage on top...and be able to get the superfecta with minimal spending.

 

ALL/1,3/ALL  Trifecta.  Hope for an upset at #1 spot. ????

 

 

No, it is a box comparable to a quinella in dog racing, although an exacta is an option. 

[tubby_mcgee 700]

3 hours ago, TommyGavin said:

I like Perform and will W/P/S and box it with Mange

 

What is a Win/Place/Show boxed withe 2 horses?  I don't get boxing in a WPS. 

Are you just saying you'll bet WPS on those 2 horses?

[tubby_mcgee 700]

If I had to pick the final order of finish

1.) Mage
2.) National Treasure
3.) Perform
4.) Blazing Sevens
5.) Red Route One
6.) Coffee With Chris
7.) Chase the Chaos

[TommyGavin 790]

20 minutes ago, tubby_mcgee said:

 

What is a Win/Place/Show boxed withe 2 horses?  I don't get boxing in a WPS. 

Are you just saying you'll bet WPS on those 2 horses?

No I WPS on #6 AND boxed it with Mange separately. Among other lesser bet exotics. 

[bostonlager 2,664]

Only 7 horses in the race?

[BeenHereBefore 1,467]

24 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

Only 7 horses in the race?

Yep, First Mission got scratched.

[Pimpadeaux 2,404]

National Treasure.

[dain11279 963]

Trifecta not even gonna pay a hunnert dollars, sad

[BeenHereBefore 1,467]

I won $48 on a box Tri but had $30 in bets on the race and had Mage to win most of them.

[BunnysBastatrds 2,319]

Blazing Sevens and you decide the next pony.