June Mock Completed

[AxeElf 787]

It would also be relevant to point out that Allgeier was drafted to be the THIRD RB behind last year's 1A and 1B duo of Damien Williams and Cordarrelle Patterson, until Williams suffered the season-ending injury in camp.  He just got the benefit of playing the Williams role in the offense thereafter.

[weepaws 3,157]

That’s not true. Patterson almost died in the second half of the 2021 season, and D Williams missed the 2020 season he elected to sit of cause covid, had a total of  56 touches in 2021, and he was hurt week one Vs the Saints.  

We all know that the Falcons coach likes bell cow Rbs, Allgeir was drafted to be that player.  

Thanks. 

[AxeElf 787]

I mean it's really just a perfect storm--Bijan's moves and the Falcons' line with Smith's offensive philosophy.

If a team can put Bijan in a situation where he only has to beat one or two guys to go the distance, he can absolutely do that for his team--and the Falcons can absolutely do that for Bijan.

We're going to see 60, 70 yard TDs on the reg.

And that, parenthetically, is going to add to Desmond Ridder's sleeper value in SuperFlex leagues.  You'd be surprised how a couple of 60 yard TDs from RB dumpoffs can boost a QB's passing stats.  But that's some wisdom for another thread...

 

[AxeElf 787]

7 minutes ago, weepaws said:

We all know that the Falcons coach likes bell cow Rbs, Allgeir was drafted to be that player.

If there are any admins reading this, I would advise deleting posts such as these, just so that casual visitors to your site don't think that FFToday is totally incompetent, or would endorse totally incompetent statements such as these.

Axe Elf:  Always on the lookout for the integrity of the site.

You're welcome.

[weepaws 3,157]

8 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

If there are any admins reading this, I would advise deleting posts such as these, just so that casual visitors to your site don't think that FFToday is totally incompetent, or would endorse totally incompetent statements such as these.

Axe Elf:  Always on the lookout for the integrity of the site.

You're welcome.

It’s time for you to be man of your own word, you said the next time you address me you would leave FFToday forever, you’ve now done it twice. Good bye.  

[AxeElf 787]

10 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

If there are any admins reading this, I would advise deleting posts such as these

And if there are any rational people reading this, I would hope they could explain to weebrain the difference between addressing someone and talking about them.

Axe Elf:  Stamping out ignorance on the internet since 1994.

(It's taking longer than I thought.)

[weepaws 3,157]

16 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

And if there are any rational people reading this, I would hope they could explain to weebrain the difference between addressing someone and talking about them.

Axe Elf:  Stamping out ignorance on the internet since 1994.

(It's taking longer than I thought.)

Yeah as  I thought, not a man to his word.  

[WhiteWonder 2,675]

you have to just take Hackelf for what he is. a sometimes entertaining clown. his ff pedigree is about as impressive as his short lived day trading career

[AxeElf 787]

57 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

his ff pedigree is about as impressive as any that you will ever see

Thanks!

Among his many achievements...

Axe Elf drafted the 2nd place team in a 12-team $250 tournament league after taking a Kicker in the 1st round and a Defense in the 2nd round.

Axe Elf drafted his team in a 10-team league from the free agents left over after all the other 9 teams had drafted--and cashed 2nd place.

The first year that Axe Elf tried Best Ball leagues, he cashed in 72.7% of the leagues he entered.

Axe Elf has lifted 3 different fantasy football boards to victory in the Interboard League.  The "Axe Elf Advantage" came to be considered too great for any one board to wield, and boards are no longer allowed to field a team featuring Axe Elf.

The list goes on and on...

[Showboat 252]

Something doesn't pass the smell-test here.  If the Elf was half as great as he seems to think he is, I'm pretty sure he wouldn't be making 9000+ posts since 2018 on a public internet forum.  Such sure-fire greatness would certainly have him much too busy with his own pay-per-view TV show or website that the masses would be clamoring to consume.  

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, Showboat said:

Something doesn't pass the smell-test here.  If the Elf was half as great as he seems to think he is, I'm pretty sure he wouldn't be making 9000+ posts since 2018 on a public internet forum.  Such sure-fire greatness would certainly have him much too busy with his own pay-per-view TV show or website that the masses would be clamoring to consume.  

Axe Elf does not cotton to the ways of the world, seeking to profit off of others by what God has wrought.  Rather, Axe Elf chooses to spend his time using his gifts in service to the masses.

[remote controller 143]

It would be nice if this thread could be cleaned off and a valid discussion of the overall draft could occur.

[Showboat 252]

One thing I found interesting was Khalil Herbert at 6.01 and D'Onta Forman at 12.02.

[AxeElf 787]

54 minutes ago, Showboat said:

One thing I found interesting was Khalil Herbert at 6.01 and D'Onta Forman at 12.02.

Typically the better RBs are drafted earlier than others, so there's not much surprise here.

 

[Ray_T 740]

ok can you explain how they measure average rush yards over expected.    I have not gone into the metrics all that much in the past but knowing how they measure it would be helpful to my understanding how much weight to place on this particular metric

[AxeElf 787]

38 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

ok can you explain how they measure average rush yards over expected.    I have not gone into the metrics all that much in the past but knowing how they measure it would be helpful to my understanding how much weight to place on this particular metric

It's worth noting that Herbert wasn't just ahead of all other players--he basically doubled the efficiency of the next-highest ranked player (Tony Pollard).

[Showboat 252]

3 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Typically the better RBs are drafted earlier than others, so there's not much surprise here.

 

I actually like Herbert, but the situation in CHI suggests that Herbert was taken too early and Foreman too late.  Despite Montgomery not doing so well in your quoted metric, he certainly seemed to be the preferred back by the coaches and was at worst a 1A to Herbert's 1B.  The draft positions seem to ignore the risk/potential that Foreman slips into the Montgomery role - sometimes talent wins out and sometimes coaches are stubborn.

[weepaws 3,157]

If They both stay healthy, I don’t think Herbert is miles ahead of Foreman, if both do stay healthy I see Herbert being the first one up, but a 12 rd pick for Foreman is a very good late pickup.  He’s going to bite into Herbert work load.  

But hard to ignore that 5.7 avg per rush for Herbert.  

[AxeElf 787]

Herbert buzz is definitely building.  I was hoping to still get him for $1 in tonight's auction, but he went for $3 (Foreman for $1).

[AxeElf 787]

On 7/5/2023 at 3:00 PM, AxeElf said:

Typically the better RBs are drafted earlier than others, so there's not much surprise here.

 

Another interesting thing in this chart...  Dameon Pierce was at a -0.20 or so, while Devin Singletary was at about +0.25 or so.  Their offensive lines were comparably ranked--23rd for Buffalo and 26th for Houston.  Houston is projected to remain the same at 25th in 2023.

[weepaws 3,157]

Find it interesting that Allgeir was 6th.  

Based on that chart, I would be cautious about Henry.  

Would be cautious about K Walker with Charbonnet on the team.  

[Belkster 0]

On 7/6/2023 at 4:52 AM, weepaws said:

If They both stay healthy, I don’t think Herbert is miles ahead of Foreman, if both do stay healthy I see Herbert being the first one up, but a 12 rd pick for Foreman is a very good late pickup.  He’s going to bite into Herbert work load.  

But hard to ignore that 5.7 avg per rush for Herbert.   

You are absolutely right. 5.7 per rush is a key indicator for Herbert. I think that's why he is given a higher chance.

Hi all!

[Belkster 0]

2 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Another interesting thing in this chart...  Dameon Pierce was at a -0.20 or so, while Devin Singletary was at about +0.25 or so.  Their offensive lines were comparably ranked--23rd for Buffalo and 26th for Houston.  Houston is projected to remain the same at 25th in 2023. 

Houston has little chance of rising above 25th position. Personally I'm not sure it will happen.

[AxeElf 787]

5 hours ago, Belkster said:

Houston has little chance of rising above 25th position. Personally I'm not sure it will happen.

Not really the point; I was pointing out that given similar offensive lines to work with, Devin Singletary was a more efficient runner than Dameon Pierce.  It will be interesting to see how Houston uses their two primary RBs.

[weepaws 3,157]

Singletary is someone that’s going to be a big target for me late in my two leagues, he’s going to get a lot of action. I’m not that certain that  D Pierce can hold up with a big work load.  

[GobbleDog 984]

2 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Not really the point; I was pointing out that given similar offensive lines to work with, Devin Singletary was a more efficient runner than Dameon Pierce.  It will be interesting to see how Houston uses their two primary RBs.

Buffalo knows everything about Singletary and let him walk. He's just-a-guy- won't finish top 30. Pierce has the talent and low adp. Expect more receptions.

[weepaws 3,157]

Not for me, I think that Pierce is looked upon as a lower rb2 in .5 ppr, that’s were I would take him, I think that the Texans brought in Singletary to help on the passing game, and to help with the running game work load.  

Not so sure what the poster above meant by top 30? But Singletary was top 30 last season. 

Right now I’m passing on Pierce in mocks or taking both, I like Singletary ADP.