Hopkins to the Titans…

[makindollaz 40]

As a DHop owner in keeper, was hoping he’d sign a cheaper deal with Buffalo or KC, but feel like Tennessee is a better option (in fantasy) than NE.

Not that Tannehill is all that better than Jones, just less mouths to feed and will be the #1 WR.

[seafoam1 1,879]

14 minutes ago, makindollaz said:

As a DHop owner in keeper, was hoping he’d sign a cheaper deal with Buffalo or KC, but feel like Tennessee is a better option (in fantasy) than NE.

Not that Tannehill is all that better than Jones, just less mouths to feed and will be the #1 WR.

I like Burks better but who knows. 

[weepaws 2,460]

Run heavy team is a tough situation for a wr like Hopkins imo.  But in a keeper type win tomorrow league I would rather have Burks.  

In a redraft win today league, I’ll take the target hound Hopkins over Burks.  

[Ray_T 591]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Run heavy team is a tough situation for a wr like Hopkins imo.  But in a keeper type win tomorrow league I would rather have Burks.  

In a redraft win today league, I’ll take the target hound Hopkins over Burks.  

Tanehill is good enough to get him the ball.  not sure what they paid hopkins, but if they paid top dollar, they probably should have kept AJ Brown.

though the advantage with Hopkins is its only a 2 year deal.  I suspect AJ was wanting a long term deal

[weepaws 2,460]

Tannehill is good enough, I agree with the op , this is a better landing spot for Hopkins, over the Patriots. 

[GobbleDog 816]

Henry has been Ten's offensive focal point the past 4 years. Some wondered if that might change last year... nope, 349 carries. Tannehill barely throws yardage as a result, and his QB rating in recent years has been average at best. Weird, he's entering his 12th season and only thrown 4,200+ yds once - 4,208 in 2015.  Shocking in today's NFL. Partly injuries, partly systems, and partly bad play.

Be interesting how Hopkins fits in that system. Despite his age, I still rank him as a top 10-15 talent/potential. But the Tennessee Titans.?. Wonder where his adp ends up. Espn shows WR 23 and FFPros shows WR 19, but don't know if it's updated since signing.

[Ray_T 591]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

Henry has been Ten's offensive focal point the past 4 years. Some wondered if that might change last year... nope, 349 carries. Tannehill barely throws yardage as a result, and his QB rating in recent years has been average at best. Weird, he's entering his 12th season and only thrown 4,200+ yds once - 4,208 in 2015.  Shocking in today's NFL. Partly injuries, partly systems, and partly bad play.

Be interesting how Hopkins fits in that system. Despite his age, I still rank him as a top 10-15 talent/potential. But the Tennessee Titans.?. Wonder where his adp ends up. Espn shows WR 23 and FFPros shows WR 19, but don't know if it's updated since signing.

well, it sounds like Arizona has been a train Wreck the last couple years.  I think Hopkins can be a top 10 WR in this offense but the top 3 upside is likely not there anymore. 

 

WR 19- 23 seems a bit late to me.   I think hes better than that in this offense.

[weepaws 2,460]

I wouldn’t rank Hopkins any higher then 15, and I’m not so sure I’ll even rank him that high, Titans are a run first team, of the three seasons AJ Brown played with the Titans, based on avg per game , half ppr, two of those season he was a low wr2.  And Burks is going to be lined up on the other side.  

[Ray_T 591]

I like the signing.

well, I think that because of teams need to stack the box to stop Henry, Hopkins will have less double coverage than hes ever seen.   I think it will open things up for him in a way that he never had elsewhere.   I think it could be good for Henry's game too.  I think Burks takes a step forward.  he likely is taking on #2 corners at least some of the time, and that should help him get open more often.  I'm expecting higher efficiency for Burks at the very least.

 

from a quality standpoint Hopkins still gets separation on a lot of his routes.     for me the big question is whether he can remain healthy as this starts to become an issue for WR at this age. 

But I think he performs at least at a WR2 level.   he got 80 yards per game last year and 4 of those games were without Kyler Murray who was out(5 if you count the one game he took himself out of after throwing only 1 pass) .  that pro rates to over 1300 yards.    I am not projecting 1300 yards.   but I do think to be on the cusp of WR1 he needs 1100 yards(or close to it).

I think Tannehill is good enough to get him that.

 At this point I'm not exactly sure where I'm ranking him but it is likely in the WR10 to WR15 range.    with the likely end point being around WR12 or WR13.   

That said given his ADP I'd probably draft him at around WR 15 or WR16.   Thats early enough to make sure I get him but late enough that hes a bargain.

I do expect his ADP will rise as we get closer to week 1 (unless he or Tannehill gets hurt or something)  but I think this Tennessee Offense will be better than it was last year.  I'll say that much for sure.

[GobbleDog 816]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

That said given his ADP I'd probably draft him at around WR 15 or WR16.   Thats early enough to make sure I get him but late enough that hes a bargain.

Not sure it's a bargain. Can Hopkins finish 15th on run-first Titans led by lackluster Tannehill ? Maybe he's good enough to drag himself to a 15th finish, somehow, but no more. I don't see a lot of upside with Hopkins at wr 15, or 20 for that matter.

[makindollaz 40]

On my keeper roster where I have DHop, I have Kelce and several WR2’s.  If he can get similar production to Cooper, D. Johnson & Aiyuk who I also have, I’ll be happy even if I don’t have a true WR1.

[weepaws 2,460]

There is sometimes someone willing to make a deal, Maybe  you can bundle and get a better wr1.  

[makindollaz 40]

10 minutes ago, weepaws said:

There is sometimes someone willing to make a deal, Maybe  you can bundle and get a better wr1.  

Have thought about it, but we keep 11 and start a QB plus a total of 10 RB/WR/TE in this league.  I like the depth I have…Taylor, Sanders & Mattison are my RB’s, and don’t want to create a gap somewhere else.  In addition to the guys I mentioned, Hurts is my QB, and Pitts & Dotson are my 9th & 10th RB/WR/TE starters.  

[weepaws 2,460]

Maybe not. 

[League Champion 1,593]

Not a great landing spot IMO but hopefully he sees a ton of targets. If anything it helps Burks 

[Ray_T 591]

6 hours ago, League Champion said:

Not a great landing spot IMO but hopefully he sees a ton of targets. If anything it helps Burks 

I personally am hoping Burks can learn a thing or two just from watching Hopkins in practice.

Burks is most definitely the future at WR for this team.

[League Champion 1,593]

I'm in the 7th round of a Best Ball Superflex and he's sitting there a few picks away. I'm tempted 

[Ray_T 591]

3 hours ago, League Champion said:

I'm in the 7th round of a Best Ball Superflex and he's sitting there a few picks away. I'm tempted 

Hopkins or Burks?  and did you get him?

[League Champion 1,593]

4 hours ago, Ray_T said:

Hopkins or Burks?  and did you get him?

It's a slow draft and I have a new dilemma. I had 1.01 and went Mahomes. I really need a QB2 but the QBs flew off the board. Kenny Pickett is sitting there but I'm afraid I'm about to get sniped. If so I'm down to the likes of Mac Jones, Ridder and Sam Howell. Piss poor drafting by me. If anything at least I'm on the turn. 

[GobbleDog 816]

9 hours ago, League Champion said:

 Kenny Pickett is sitting there but I'm afraid I'm about to get sniped. If so I'm down to the likes of Mac Jones, Ridder and Sam Howell.

I prefer Howell to Pickett.  Admittedly I think Pickett is worthless junk.  But I also hear great things about Howell. Redskins going to surprise people this year.

[Ray_T 591]

13 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

I prefer Howell to Pickett.  Admittedly I think Pickett is worthless junk.  But I also hear great things about Howell. Redskins going to surprise people this year.

I actually dont mind Mac Jones or Pickett.

Pickett showed signs of being an actual QB late in the year last year.    and now has 3 legit starting WR on the roster.  I like his chances of a breakout.

Mac Jones I think could easily bounce back.   but he has another QB behind him on the depth chart who could potentially take the starting job from him which is a bit concerning.    So if you want security Pickett isnt likely to lose his job.     Hes your guy.

but Mac Jones isnt bad either.

I dont think much of Howell.   I think he was a developmental QB at the time they drafted him and I dont think hes ready yet.

[weepaws 2,460]

I would take Pickett. 

[GobbleDog 816]

43 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

I dont think much of Howell.

Howell is a poor man's Josh Allen. White boy can run and throw. Skins gonna design him run plays.

[Ray_T 591]

1 minute ago, GobbleDog said:

Howell is a poor man's Josh Allen. White boy can run and throw. Skins gonna design him run plays.

he is. a very poor man's Josh Allen.   but hes not nearly as polished.  honestly he reminds me a bit of Tim Teebow in some respects too. 

all the tools are in the toolbox but the first year starting will have some significant growing pains.  his running ability will hold his head above water until his throwing can get up to speed.  but that may take some time.    if he breaks out it is likely next year.  possibly the year after.

But hes likely a better fantasy QB than he will be an actual QB due to that running ability.   And despite the crappy team he does have some pretty good WR's to throw to.

but from what I've seen of him,  there will likely be issues with turnovers.    or they will run the offense so conservative to protect him that the pass game wont do much but he will burn some teams with his legs.

Hard to say exactly how this will play out.   hes a Low floor high ceiling guy.   The low floor is the scenario where he loses the starting job early (or doesnt even get the starting job) 

I guess the question is  do you want this guy as your second QB?

given the original posters situation, if he drafts near the turn, the ideal situation is he takes Pickett or Jones and then after the turn grabs Howell as a third QB.

as this is a best ball superflex, there is no doubt he should have been on the QB early and often.  By round 7 if you dont have 2 QB you are basically in some trouble.    but at this point its damage control.  you need a second QB who can actually play every game.  Pickett will do that for you and I do like his chances of a breakout.  If Howell slides to the next round he should be considered at that point just for his running upside.

[League Champion 1,593]

2 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

I prefer Howell to Pickett.  Admittedly I think Pickett is worthless junk.  But I also hear great things about Howell. Redskins going to surprise people this year.

I ended up taking Pickett and Waller on the turn. I think Pickett is just fine for a QB behind Mahomes. I can't bring myself to draft Howell, he may lose the job pre-season. At least I know Pickett has a job. 

[Ray_T 591]

1 hour ago, League Champion said:

 At least I know Pickett has a job. 

This is sadly his best selling feature.

but I do think he may break out this year.   hes got a good set of WR and he started looking like a pro QB late last season.

Thing is.... all the QBs at this point in the draft are going to have issues.   I think This is the safer pick.  Hopefully you wont have to start him too often.

but in Superflex, you can start QB's in other flex spots (which is why QB went early and often in your draft) so you likely do have the ability to start 2 QB if he lights it up.

[League Champion 1,593]

19 hours ago, Ray_T said:

This is sadly his best selling feature.

but I do think he may break out this year.   hes got a good set of WR and he started looking like a pro QB late last season.

The metrics aren't great but he did pretty well the last part of the season. He also offers running ability which I'm hoping that he utilizes a little more this season. It may be wishful thinking but it was slim pickings at that point of the draft. I'm content 

[Ray_T 591]

16 minutes ago, League Champion said:

The metrics aren't great but he did pretty well the last part of the season. He also offers running ability which I'm hoping that he utilizes a little more this season. It may be wishful thinking but it was slim pickings at that point of the draft. I'm content 

well, they also typically run a pretty stripped down and basic version of an offense for rookie QB's in an attempt not to overwhelm them.

sometimes this can contribute to mediocre to poor numbers for a rookie QB.   I have found its not usually until year 2 or 3 that you really know what a rookie QB is capable of.

Even then..... it also depends on how good a coach they have to work with as well.

Either way, they should open a few things up for him this year and we will start to get a taste of what he can do. 

[Matt Mueller 146]

Reasons for Skepticism but Tanny wasn’t much different then Kyler last year 

 

Tanny 12 games 212/235 for 2,536.  13 TD-6 INT

 

Kyler 11 games 259/390 for 2,368. 14 TD-7 int

my basic point.   I’m not sure Tanny and Tenn is that much worse than Zona 

 

[Ray_T 591]

16 minutes ago, Matt Mueller said:

Reasons for Skepticism but Tanny wasn’t much different then Kyler last year 

 

Tanny 12 games 212/235 for 2,536.  13 TD-6 INT

 

Kyler 11 games 259/390 for 2,368. 14 TD-7 int

my basic point.   I’m not sure Tanny and Tenn is that much worse than Zona 

 

I think Kyler Murray at his best(statistically at least) is better than Tannehill at his best.   But Tanehill is not in an offense where they are demanding he carry the team.  

They make it a 2 score game, they just run the ball a LOT and kill the clock.

but last year Murray was looking like a bit of a headcase up to the point he got injured.

but if you notice the game by game stats.  Hopkins was still a decent WR when playing with a backup QB.   I think he had a bad game in week 16 and from the look of it, I think that week 16 game was with a third string QB so I'd throw out that game as the QB play was likely so crappy that nobody was catching balls.

I'd look at AJ Brown when he was catching Balls from Tannehill.    This is along the lines of what I'd expect from Hopkins in that offense.  I think they will use him the same way.

Hopkins (assuming good health) will get at least 1000 yards receiving.  If there is any concern for me, its in keeping good health. 

 

 

 

[weepaws 2,460]

1 hour ago, Matt Mueller said:

Reasons for Skepticism but Tanny wasn’t much different then Kyler last year 

 

Tanny 12 games 212/235 for 2,536.  13 TD-6 INT

 

Kyler 11 games 259/390 for 2,368. 14 TD-7 int

my basic point.   I’m not sure Tanny and Tenn is that much worse than Zona 

 

You’re thinking Wr1?  I’m thinking low wr2.  

[Ray_T 591]

2 hours ago, weepaws said:

You’re thinking Wr1?  I’m thinking low wr2.  

if he was my WR2 I'd be very pleased.   and this year it looks like it could happen.

[weepaws 2,460]

44 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

if he was my WR2 I'd be very pleased.   and this year it looks like it could happen.

I wouldn’t buy him any higher   

[IGotWorms 3,315]

Tennessee offense hurts DHop’s value and now I’m down on Burks too. IMO DHop is a middling WR2 and Burks goes down to WR4

[IGotWorms 3,315]

On 7/19/2023 at 7:57 AM, Ray_T said:

I actually dont mind Mac Jones or Pickett.

Pickett showed signs of being an actual QB late in the year last year.    and now has 3 legit starting WR on the roster.  I like his chances of a breakout.

Mac Jones I think could easily bounce back.   but he has another QB behind him on the depth chart who could potentially take the starting job from him which is a bit concerning.    So if you want security Pickett isnt likely to lose his job.     Hes your guy.

but Mac Jones isnt bad either.

I dont think much of Howell.   I think he was a developmental QB at the time they drafted him and I dont think hes ready yet.

Poor take on Jones. Zappe isn’t really a threat, the problem is Jones just isn’t very good. Looked good first half of rookie year when McDaniels successfully hid his weaknesses, but he’s been hot garbage since. Like really bad. And no it wasn’t just last year with Matt Patricia as OC, look at his play down the stretch in 2021 as well. He’s just not good and I would not draft him except in very deep leagues or as QB3 in a super flex if you’re desperate 

[Ray_T 591]

9 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

Poor take on Jones. Zappe isn’t really a threat, the problem is Jones just isn’t very good. Looked good first half of rookie year when McDaniels successfully hid his weaknesses, but he’s been hot garbage since. Like really bad. And no it wasn’t just last year with Matt Patricia as OC, look at his play down the stretch in 2021 as well. He’s just not good and I would not draft him except in very deep leagues or as QB3 in a super flex if you’re desperate 

I was wondering how much coaching played into this.

Either way,  I still like them more than Howell.  And I do still think if Jones plays badly Zappe will get his shot.   and I still prefer Pickett.    I didnt get to watch as many Pats games this last year as I would have liked so my sample size may be too small.   the one game I watched he had just come back from injury and admittedly wasnt that good.   But that sometimes will happen when returning from injury.   The other game I saw he was ok.  not spectacular but decent.

I know late in his rookie year there were a couple of serious bad weather games that affected Jones stats too.  I'm not sure I'd use those as an indicator.  I think the one game he only threw like 3 or 4 passes the whole game which had serious wind and rain I think.   But playing in bad weather is arguably part of the equasion when playing in New England.   it  plays a role every year.

either way, to me it doesnt matter.  my keeper league QB's are all set and hes not a part of that.   hes still not in a teir of QB's where you would start him in fantasy.  At best hes a quality backup unless he steps up his game.