Dynasty Keeper

[gridiron whirlwinds 9]

Christian Watson or Jameson Williams

[weepaws 3,153]

Watson.  

[Ray_T 740]

less risk with watson as he already is 1 year into his development curve. 

Williams really never got much play as he was bouncing back from a torn ACL.    I like Williams QB more, but Williams is also a smallish, super speedy WR who can be jammed at the line.  he may require a bit more time to get up to speed and figure out how to beat the Jam at the line.   I think his upside is just as good, potentially a bit better due to a better QB and offense currently, but the next 2 years, Watson is going to be superior and it wont likely be close.   

if Williams figures out how to beat the jam, his upside is considerable but for every guy like him who figures it out there are likely 2 or 3 who dont.  so the risk is a lot higher there.

To that end, I'd pick Watson as well

[polecatt 474]

Watson

[Gepetto 1,288]

Christian Watson - he's going to be elite.

[gridiron whirlwinds 9]

Would you all feel the same way if Jameson was not suspended for the first 6 games /

[gridiron whirlwinds 9]

Would you also take Watson over Brandon Aiyuk ?

Thanks for your input

[polecatt 474]

16 minutes ago, gridiron whirlwinds said:

Would you all feel the same way if Jameson was not suspended for the first 6 games /

It would help I guess, but still, not crazy about a guy coming off a torn ACL who didn't do anything the games he did play.

Then you pair that with a 6 game suspension. Not a good start to his career. Maybe it gets better, but the odds aren't looking good.

I know Watson had his struggles last season too, but he had some monster games as well. He had three 100 yd games, plus two multi TD games, 7 overall. He finished the season strong.

I would say he's head and shoulders above Williams at this point.

[polecatt 474]

19 minutes ago, gridiron whirlwinds said:

Would you also take Watson over Brandon Aiyuk ?

Thanks for your input

I would say they're probably about even. Given the choice I would probably take Watson again.

I know Ayiuk's numbers overall look pretty decent. If you break them down though, it's not quite as good as it looks. He had some decent games, but Watson had better.

Both have questionable QB situations, so there's a bit of risk involved with both.

[TBayXXXVII 2,482]

22 hours ago, gridiron whirlwinds said:

Christian Watson or Jameson Williams

I'm going the other way, compared to the rest of the boards thinking that Williams is the better choice.
 

Yeah, Williams had an ACL and has a suspension, but he did/does have first round talent and displayed it at the highest level in college.  Also, ACL tears aren't as big of an issue for WR's as they are for RB's, he should be able to rebound quite well.  Look at Cooper Kupp who tore his ACL in 2018.  From an injury standpoint, I'm ok with him, especially now that it's 20 months later.  As for the suspension, that's more of just being a stupid 21/22 year old, because he wasn't betting on the Lions or NFL games.  I believe him when he says he wasn't aware of the rules.  To my knowledge, he's never been in trouble before and took ownership of the suspension, so I'm willing to look past it.

On to football... last year in Green Bay, that was not a typical Aaron Rodgers/Green Bay Packers type season.  Why?  Drama?  I have no idea.  Something else that I have no idea about, is Jordan Love.  Could the issue have been coaching?  Last year they had a new OC, Stenavich, the prior 3 years it was Hackett.  Love is LeFluer & Gutekunst's (GM), guy.  This who they wanted, so come hell or high water, he's going to get at least 2 years... which could mean that you could see diminishing returns on Watson for 2 years.  Looking more at the team, they didn't have much at WR last year or did they?  Let's assume it wasn't coaching, it was the fact that Lazard isn't all that good, neither is/was Watkins, or Cobb.  Let's also assume that the only real talent was Doubs & Watson.  How'd they improve the WR room?  I don't see anything.  No contradiction, Lazard, Watkins, and Cobb aren't all that good, but they are NFL WR's (well, Cobb might not be at this point), but who did they get replaced by?  Every single WR in Green Bay is either a 2nd year player or a rookie.  Now, that in theory bodes well for Watson when it comes to targets, but what if Watson is the only guy that's even a capable WR?  That means there's more of a likelihood that Love stares him down or looks his way too much and the defense gives him too much attention.  You could see 2 years of "meh".

Oddly, the Lions look to have a more appealing offense.  This is Campbell's 3rd year with the team and it looks to be on the upswing.  It's also Johnson's second year as the OC.  A 2nd year where his first was quite impressive.  He's making Jarred Goff look like an NFL QB.  Their backfield looks a bit questionable to me, but my guess is they're putting a lot into the rookie.  That may work out just fine because that's generally the fastest position to assimilate to.  Something that won't happen in Green Bay is that opposite Williams will be an All-Pro WR that teams MUST account for.  Teams won't be able to focus on stopping Williams.  They also have Josh Reynolds who's a known capable player.  Is he great?  No, but he is someone that can catch the ball and move the chains.  The longer they have the ball, the more chances guys have to put up numbers.  To me, the Lions offense looks like it will be a more productive and efficient offense than the Packers.

[weepaws 3,153]

Yea Watson is the right pick. 

[nobody 2,558]

I'd rank them Aiyuk, Williams, Watson

Watson doesn't run routes.  He runs in a straight line.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,482]

43 minutes ago, nobody said:

I'd rank them Aiyuk, Williams, Watson

Watson doesn't run routes.  He runs in a straight line.  

I had/have him in my keeper league.  I noticed that too last year.

[weepaws 3,153]

Watson is the one to keep, he’s the best one he is the most  talented. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,482]

2 hours ago, weepaws said:

Watson is the one to keep, he’s the best one he is the most  talented. 

If Watson was in fact the best one and most talented, he wouldn't have been drafted in the 4th round, but in the 1st like Williams.

[Ray_T 740]

17 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

If Watson was in fact the best one and most talented, he wouldn't have been drafted in the 4th round, but in the 1st like Williams.

true, but the nfl draft is basically a ranking of talent at a specific moment in time based on what teams know about a person.

a year has passed and we know more about Watson.   we dont know a whole lot more about Williams as he missed much of the season due to injury and when he returned he was not anywhere close to 100% and he played very little.

Hes essentially a rookie.

and a known commodity is usually worth more than an unknown one who has questions.

I dont deny Williams may have more upside long term but he has a deficiency that showed up on his scouting report that I feel still has not been resolved.   granted I didnt expect him to make progress on this while out with an ACL injury but for me he was boom or bust.   Watson since the draft has started looking like a player.   likely one who should have been drafted earlier than he was.

either way, hes 1 year ahead of Williams on the development curve so arguably there is less risk there with him.   we have a better idea of what kind of pro he will be.

we still dont know this about Williams.   the sample size is too small and tainted by the ACL recovery that hindered him last year.

thats why I said what I said in the earlier post.   I do think he out performs Williams this year.   and possibly next year as well.   after that..... it is yet to be determined.

[weepaws 3,153]

25 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

If Watson was in fact the best one and most talented, he wouldn't have been drafted in the 4th round, but in the 1st like Williams.

Tremendous value for the Packers, I agree with you.  

[nobody 2,558]

Wasn't Watson drafted with the first pick of the second round or something like that?

It doesn't matter though.  He's going into be boom/bust because he doesn't have a mature route tree, so he'll need to rely on long TDs to be score points.

[Ray_T 740]

1 hour ago, nobody said:

Wasn't Watson drafted with the first pick of the second round or something like that?

It doesn't matter though.  He's going into be boom/bust because he doesn't have a mature route tree, so he'll need to rely on long TDs to be score points.

a lot of guys come out of college in this situation.  its up to the pro level coaching to get him up to speed on the rest.   Teams who have good coaching will often be successful in developing those raw prospects.  Teams without good coaching..... hit or miss.

[nobody 2,558]

It's rare to see guys with poor route running skills become great route runners.  These are the N'Keal Harry, Denzel Mims, Marquise Brown, Chase Claypool, Michael Gallup, Courtland Sutton types.

They have value, but they'll be TD dependent.

[Gepetto 1,288]

53 minutes ago, nobody said:

It's rare to see guys with poor route running skills become great route runners.  These are the N'Keal Harry, Denzel Mims, Marquise Brown, Chase Claypool, Michael Gallup, Courtland Sutton types.

They have value, but they'll be TD dependent.

How do you find out which receivers are poor route runners? and which are good route runners? Where is that information? Or did you coach receivers and you watch tape or something?

[TBayXXXVII 2,482]

4 hours ago, nobody said:

Wasn't Watson drafted with the first pick of the second round or something like that?

It doesn't matter though.  He's going into be boom/bust because he doesn't have a mature route tree, so he'll need to rely on long TDs to be score points.

Sorry, you are correct.  I got him and Doubs backwards.

[weepaws 3,153]

6 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Sorry, you are correct.  I got him and Doubs backwards.

I guess not as much value for the Packers.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,482]

20 hours ago, Ray_T said:

true, but the nfl draft is basically a ranking of talent at a specific moment in time based on what teams know about a person.

a year has passed and we know more about Watson.   we dont know a whole lot more about Williams as he missed much of the season due to injury and when he returned he was not anywhere close to 100% and he played very little.

Hes essentially a rookie.

and a known commodity is usually worth more than an unknown one who has questions.

I dont deny Williams may have more upside long term but he has a deficiency that showed up on his scouting report that I feel still has not been resolved.   granted I didnt expect him to make progress on this while out with an ACL injury but for me he was boom or bust.   Watson since the draft has started looking like a player.   likely one who should have been drafted earlier than he was.

either way, hes 1 year ahead of Williams on the development curve so arguably there is less risk there with him.   we have a better idea of what kind of pro he will be.

we still dont know this about Williams.   the sample size is too small and tainted by the ACL recovery that hindered him last year.

thats why I said what I said in the earlier post.   I do think he out performs Williams this year.   and possibly next year as well.   after that..... it is yet to be determined.

I agree with the principles of your post, not so sure it truly applies here.  Watson started the year banged up as well, and was virtually invisible the first half of the season.  The second half he was boom or bust.  To me, what he showed in his being a more of a known commodity, is actually more concerning that optimistic.  He looks to be a guy who is a fantasy WR3/flex guy whom you have to hope for a big week.

I'm not so sure I agree with you on your last couple sentences, completely.  Watson/Williams standpoint, the fact that Watson will be ready to go Week 1 and have more games under his belt, I'm not so sure I can be comfortable with Love.  Goff's no gem, but he's showing that he's a legit starting QB in the NFL. Also, the Lions offense appears to be in a better state than Green Bay's.  I think the likelihood that Watson outperforms Williams this year is better than the flipside, though, I don't know if the margin is all that big.  On top of that, the topic is about dynasty/keeper, not redraft, so the focus is on not just this year, but the next 2, possibly 3.  In that format, I'm taking Williams.

[LaChup 228]

If you guys don't watch route running tape of every receiver, I'd like to play in your leagues.

[Ray_T 740]

Just now, LaChup said:

If you guys don't watch route running tape of every receiver, I'd like to play in your leagues.

I dont watch a ton of tape that way but I do try to make an effort on these players whose floor is low an whose ceiling is perceived to be high.   as their true value is variable and to some degree unknown.   thats usually where your fantasy football gold or your fantasy football duds are found.   and if you can figure that out on even a couple players  it means you can get a good player later in your draft than you should

[weepaws 3,153]

1 hour ago, LaChup said:

If you guys don't watch route running tape of every receiver, I'd like to play in your leagues.

Going all the way back to high school, through college, and then the nfl.  

[Gepetto 1,288]

Watson is the Packers WR1. 
Williams is the Lions WR2 or WR3. 
That matters too.

[Ray_T 740]

5 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I think the likelihood that Watson outperforms Williams this year is better than the flipside, though, I don't know if the margin is all that big.  On top of that, the topic is about dynasty/keeper, not redraft, so the focus is on not just this year, but the next 2, possibly 3.  In that format, I'm taking Williams.

well, with dynasty the value of the player is typically as follows:

50% present value

50% future value.

I think Watson outperforms williams with present value

but future value is close.   I like Williams situation and potential, but there is a legitimate chance he may not learn how to beat the jam at the line.  hes a very smallish WR.   so this is a legit challenge.   his upside is huge otherwise.  if he was a bigger guy with the same skillset I'd be more inclined to jump on the wagon, but I do think there is legitimate risk with him.

thats the bottom line of why I view Watson better.    I think the odds are about 50-50 on who is the better WR 2 or 3 years from now.

Williams has the higher ceiling I think.  but also the lower floor.

[gridiron whirlwinds 9]

I like both of these guys. I have decided to keep Watson, even though I am not quite sure about Jordan Love.

My thinking is I will probably have a better chance of getting Jameson back in the draft than Watson.

We keep 6 skill players and it is a 14 team league, so Watson will more than likely be gone in our 1st or 2nd round. With Jameson's suspension, my guess is he will be around a little longer.

Tough choice for sure, I also have a small concern about Jameson being a bit of a loose cannon compared to Watson.  hopefully it all works out.

My keepers are the following.

RB     Travis Etienne

RB     Breece Hall

WR    AJ Brown

WR    Calvin Ridley

WR    Christian Watson

WR    Kyle Pitts   WR and TE are both just considered WR in our league, you don't need to roster a TE

We start 7 players:

1   QB

1/2  RB

2/3  WR

1  Kicker

1   Defense

 

I do like some of Watson's best plays from last year.

 

[polecatt 474]

On 8/11/2023 at 4:22 PM, TBayXXXVII said:

If Watson was in fact the best one and most talented, he wouldn't have been drafted in the 4th round, but in the 1st like Williams.

Tom Brady was a 6th round pick, not even a real 6th round pick, but a compensation pick at the end of the round.

The supposedly much more talented 1st round QB of that draft, Chad Pennington...

[LaChup 228]

19 hours ago, weepaws said:

Going all the way back to high school, through college, and then the nfl.  

I can't really control what you guys do, but I go back to PeeWee for my stats. I get some good floors off that info.

[weepaws 3,153]

1 hour ago, LaChup said:

I can't really control what you guys do, but I go back to PeeWee for my stats. I get some good floors off that info.

Hardcore

[weepaws 3,153]

4 hours ago, gridiron whirlwinds said:

I like both of these guys. I have decided to keep Watson, even though I am not quite sure about Jordan Love.

My thinking is I will probably have a better chance of getting Jameson back in the draft than Watson.

We keep 6 skill players and it is a 14 team league, so Watson will more than likely be gone in our 1st or 2nd round. With Jameson's suspension, my guess is he will be around a little longer.

Tough choice for sure, I also have a small concern about Jameson being a bit of a loose cannon compared to Watson.  hopefully it all works out.

My keepers are the following.

RB     Travis Etienne

RB     Breece Hall

WR    AJ Brown

WR    Calvin Ridley

WR    Christian Watson

WR    Kyle Pitts   WR and TE are both just considered WR in our league, you don't need to roster a TE

We start 7 players:

1   QB

1/2  RB

2/3  WR

1  Kicker

1   Defense

 

I do like some of Watson's best plays from last year.

 

Congrats.  Good luck.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,482]

On 8/12/2023 at 7:35 PM, Ray_T said:

well, with dynasty the value of the player is typically as follows:

50% present value

50% future value.

I think Watson outperforms williams with present value

but future value is close.   I like Williams situation and potential, but there is a legitimate chance he may not learn how to beat the jam at the line.  hes a very smallish WR.   so this is a legit challenge.   his upside is huge otherwise.  if he was a bigger guy with the same skillset I'd be more inclined to jump on the wagon, but I do think there is legitimate risk with him.

thats the bottom line of why I view Watson better.    I think the odds are about 50-50 on who is the better WR 2 or 3 years from now.

Williams has the higher ceiling I think.  but also the lower floor.

Williams isn't that small, he's 6'-2".

[TBayXXXVII 2,482]

12 hours ago, polecatt said:

Tom Brady was a 6th round pick, not even a real 6th round pick, but a compensation pick at the end of the round.

The supposedly much more talented 1st round QB of that draft, Chad Pennington...

If Chad Pennington stayed healthy, I think he'd be in the H.O.F.

[Ray_T 740]

12 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Williams isn't that small, he's 6'-2".

true, but very thin.  only like 180 lbs.

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/jameson-williams/32005749-4c34-4909-bc5e-bde59d1a8826

the link above was the scouting report for him.   hes still not a finished product is all I am saying.  it may take a bit more time for him.

 

[polecatt 474]

18 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

If Chad Pennington stayed healthy, I think he'd be in the H.O.F.

I think he would have been an excellent QB, HOF may be a stretch but I guess it's possible.

Either way though, he's not close to Brady

[Ray_T 740]

3 hours ago, polecatt said:

I think he would have been an excellent QB, HOF may be a stretch but I guess it's possible.

Either way though, he's not close to Brady

Excellent is pushing it.

Solid is the word I'm thinking of.  but we dont have to agree.

[TBayXXXVII 2,482]

18 hours ago, polecatt said:

I think he would have been an excellent QB, HOF may be a stretch but I guess it's possible.

Either way though, he's not close to Brady

No, he's not close to Brady, but Brady is the exception.  Laws of averages significantly favor the higher draft picks.

We can disagree on the H.O.F., that's fine.