Mike Evans

[josh wiley 27]

Feel like he was written off prior to this year’s draft. Took him sometime in the mid rounds but glad I got him. 

[weepaws 2,460]

After Brady left, Evans ADP took a hit, I think he’s the best mid rd pick this season.  If you look at .5 ppr, this is his best season ever, he’s avg 16 points per game.  My vote for the gem of the season.  

Thanks for posting this thread op.  

[kilroy69 994]

He is going to look great as a lion next year. 

[easilyscan 559]

2 hours ago, kilroy69 said:

He is going to look great as a lion next year. 

Or maybe a Chief ?

 

[polecatt 403]

On 12/4/2023 at 7:28 PM, josh wiley said:

Feel like he was written off prior to this year’s draft. Took him sometime in the mid rounds but glad I got him. 

He's been as consistent as they come. He's a steal in the mid rounds

[Ray_T 591]

On 12/4/2023 at 10:13 PM, weepaws said:

After Brady left, Evans ADP took a hit, I think he’s the best mid rd pick this season.  If you look at .5 ppr, this is his best season ever, he’s avg 16 points per game.  My vote for the gem of the season.  

Thanks for posting this thread op.  

His ADP should have taken a small hit but he produced before Brady arrived.   So it is logical to assume he'd produce after he departs provided he is healthy and hasnt aged out.

 

I think people over reacted to the news. (nearly always happens)

[weepaws 2,460]

8 hours ago, Ray_T said:

His ADP should have taken a small hit but he produced before Brady arrived.   So it is logical to assume he'd produce after he departs provided he is healthy and hasnt aged out.

 

I think people over reacted to the news. (nearly always happens)

No one would have said that Evans would be having his best ff season with Mayfield at the helm, so I think his adp drop had a lot of merit. 

But he’s the mid rd ff mvp.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

Every year, you can pretty much assume that he'll finish with around 75/1100/9 (16-game season - in terms of fantasy production), which will get you around 15 fpg.

He is elite at being a 50/50 guy.  If you can get the ball there, he'll put up huge numbers.  The only reason why Evans doesn't have 1500 yards and 15 TD's every year is because he had Godwin opposite him, who's a great slot receiver, and had crappy QB's for 7 of his 10 years there.  Brady, while not a crappy QB (obviously), does not like to throw too many of those 50/50 passes.  In his 3 years with Brady, his yards per reception was between 14 and 14.6 each year... in the other 7, he's 15.5+ in 5 of them.

[weepaws 2,460]

Without question Evans has a reliable wr to have on a ff team, but he’s having his best season with Mayfield is a surprised to me.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Without question Evans has a reliable wr to have on a ff team, but he’s having his best season with Mayfield is a surprised to me.  

I'm not completely surprised based on the fact that their new OC came from Seattle where the last 4 years or so, they've been throwing to Metcalf and Lockett almost exclusively.  With Gage getting hurt in the pre-season, there was no real WR3 with experience on the roster, so the expectation of Evans and Godwin getting over 45% of the target share is somewhat expected.  Keep in mind, Evans only has 8 more receptions than Godwin, despite higher production.  This really shows how bad of a QB Mayfield is, and why no one can win with him.  Mayfield does throw reasonably well deep ball, but his intermediate game is horrific.  It's why Evans is doing as well as he is and Godwin's numbers are much lower, despite only 18 less targets and 8 less receptions.

[weepaws 2,460]

Makes sense to me.  Thanks. 

[Bills04 46]

It will be interesting to see where Evans - AND Saquon end up, in 2024.  They are EACH dominant in their team's offenses, and neither was tendered a contract this past off-season. 

[weepaws 2,460]

18 minutes ago, Bills04 said:

It will be interesting to see where Evans - AND Saquon end up, in 2024.  They are EACH dominant in their team's offenses, and neither was tendered a contract this past off-season. 

Agreed.  

[Ray_T 591]

On 12/8/2023 at 12:49 AM, weepaws said:

No one would have said that Evans would be having his best ff season with Mayfield at the helm, so I think his adp drop had a lot of merit. 

But he’s the mid rd ff mvp.  

no.  and going from Brady to (nearly anyone) you would think there would be a dropoff.    but then again when Brady first arrived I thought Evans would put up better numbers with Brady.   The jump wasnt as large as I thought it was.

in the end I think it is because Brady spread the ball around more.   If my memory is correct I think Evans was injured during part of the Brady tenure too which may have affected that.   I know the O line was a mess Brady's last year so the deep ball was not something he could throw as often because the pass protection wasnt there.

Either way I cannot disagree he was the steal of the draft in the mid rounds.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

On 12/11/2023 at 11:47 AM, Ray_T said:

no.  and going from Brady to (nearly anyone) you would think there would be a dropoff.    but then again when Brady first arrived I thought Evans would put up better numbers with Brady.   The jump wasnt as large as I thought it was.

in the end I think it is because Brady spread the ball around more.   If my memory is correct I think Evans was injured during part of the Brady tenure too which may have affected that.   I know the O line was a mess Brady's last year so the deep ball was not something he could throw as often because the pass protection wasnt there.

Either way I cannot disagree he was the steal of the draft in the mid rounds.

Godwin was Brady's guy because Godwin is more of your over the middle possession guy who will get the yards after catch.  Evans is that downfield 50/50 X receiver, which Brady isn't a big fan of throwing those types of balls.  Go look at Moss' numbers in his tenure in NE.  He had 2 years where he averaged 15.2 ypr and the other two in the 14's.  For the most part of his career, he was well over 15.  The years where he was under that, 2002 & 2003 in Minny for example, that was when Moss was the only real receiver on the team.  They needed to get him the ball, it's why he was mostly 17+.  With the Raiders, the QB's were so terrible, they couldn't get him the ball.  The too many mouth's to feed wasn't really a thing, like some people make it out to be.  Remember, in 2020, Brown didn't play until Week 10.  Tampa threw the ball a LOT, 630 times in 2020 (remember, they had no pre-season to work together), then 730 times in 2021, and 750 in 2022.  Evans got about 115 targets each year.  Yeah, it's a drop from prior years, but only a slight one.  He averaged 130 in the prior 3 years... that works out to be only 1 target a game.  Evans' increase in production with Brady was in the end zone.  He totaled 27 in 2020 and 2021, which is at least 10 more than any other 2 consecutive year total.  Evans only missed 2 games in the 3 years with Brady... one of which was the last game of last year where no one really played because they clinched the division.

Next year's draft stock depends on 2 things, which really aren't projectable at this point in time.  What team is he on and if he's in Tampa, who's the HC/OC/QB?  I think that if he hits the free agent market, Kansas City and LA (Chargers), throw him a ton of money.  Spotrac.com has his market price at $23.5M AAV on a 4 year deal.  Based on the free agent market for WR's, Evans is hitting free agency at a great time.  He's easily the #1 WR in the class and #2 isn't very good.  If he goes to KC or LA, I think he's a top 5 WR in 2024.

In Tampa, I think the Bucs would love to keep him, and I think he'd love to stay, but I don't see him turning down a chance to play with a guy like Mahomes or Herbert to stay in an unknown situation.

 

[Ray_T 591]

19 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Godwin was Brady's guy because Godwin is more of your over the middle possession guy who will get the yards after catch.  Evans is that downfield 50/50 X receiver, which Brady isn't a big fan of throwing those types of balls.  Go look at Moss' numbers in his tenure in NE.  He had 2 years where he averaged 15.2 ypr and the other two in the 14's.  For the most part of his career, he was well over 15.  The years where he was under that, 2002 & 2003 in Minny for example, that was when Moss was the only real receiver on the team.  They needed to get him the ball, it's why he was mostly 17+.  With the Raiders, the QB's were so terrible, they couldn't get him the ball.  The too many mouth's to feed wasn't really a thing, like some people make it out to be.  Remember, in 2020, Brown didn't play until Week 10.  Tampa threw the ball a LOT, 630 times in 2020 (remember, they had no pre-season to work together), then 730 times in 2021, and 750 in 2022.  Evans got about 115 targets each year.  Yeah, it's a drop from prior years, but only a slight one.  He averaged 130 in the prior 3 years... that works out to be only 1 target a game.  Evans' increase in production with Brady was in the end zone.  He totaled 27 in 2020 and 2021, which is at least 10 more than any other 2 consecutive year total.  Evans only missed 2 games in the 3 years with Brady... one of which was the last game of last year where no one really played because they clinched the division.

Next year's draft stock depends on 2 things, which really are projectable at this point in time.  What team is he on and if he's Tampa, who's the HC/OC/QB?  I think that if he hits the free agent market, Kansas City and LA (Chargers), throw him a ton of money.  Spotrac.com has his market price at $23.5M AAV on a 4 year deal.  Based on the free agent market for WR's, Evans is hitting free agency at a great time.  He's easily the #1 WR in the class and #2 isn't very good.  If he goes to KC or LA, I think he's a top 5 WR in 2024.

In Tampa, I think the Bucs would love to keep him, and I think he'd love to stay, but I don't see him turning down a chance to play with a guy like Mahomes or Herbert to stay in an unknown situation.

 

awesome thanks for the insight.   it is much appreciated.